El Niño and drought in New Zealand

Between a rapidly-changing economy, dairy farmers going deep into debt because of a crash in commodity prices and national debt that is going into the stratosphere, this country is deep in the doodah.

El Niño pattern blow to 

Canterbury farmers

North Canterbury farmers already in the grip of their worst drought in 60 years have been dealt another blow today

TV3 News,

14 May, 2015

NIWA says we are on the cusp of an El Niño weather pattern, meaning things are about to get even drier in the east and wetter in the west.

Canterbury's trademark Nor'west winds are exactly what drought-stricken farmers don't need.

"When you just get the wind likes this it's stripping out the moisture in it," says Federated Farmers north Canterbury president Lynda Murchison.

An El Niño weather pattern means drier land on the east coast, meaning less feed for sheep that are chewing through farmers' profits.

"Some farmers may give up, lose their farms over this," says Ms Murchison.

It's tough to swallow for a region that has only had one good rainfall this year.

"We had about 21mm about a fortnight ago when the last southerly came through and that was our best rainfall for the whole year," says Ms Murchison.

But while it's dry in the east, El Niño brings higher than average rainfall in the west. Hokitika has had 87 percent of its normal monthly rainfall in the first 12 days of May.

Climate scientists say rising sea temperatures are to blame for the extreme weather patterns.

"It's warmer than usual," says NIWA forecaster Chris Brandolino. "That's the ocean's way of saying 'El Niño'."

Forecasters in Australia and the UK have already called it, but New Zealand forecasters haven't declared an El Niño event yet.

Farmers will be desperately hoping

To see video GO HERE

Meanwhile government scientists are "debating" whether there is an el-Nino or not.

My supsicion is a directive has gone out from the Top to keep quiet on this subject.

Scientists debate El Niño

 

likelihood

Climate scientists are at odds over whether New Zealand will suffer an El Nino this year.

Radio NZ,

13 May, 2015

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology yesterday announced a substantial El Nino event had begun.

During an El Nino, the west coast is wet, the east coast is dry and it's cold everywhere. Those conditions make it ripe for drought.

Victoria University climate scientist James Renwick said it would take about a month to see just how severe it would get.

"Australia feels El Ninos possibly more strongly than just about any other country but New Zealand certainly feels the effects as well. What normally happens for New Zealand is the kind of weather we've had this week with strong winds and storms and things."

A medium-scale drought classification has already been issued in parts of the South Island and is likely to remain until August or September. - Photo: Supplied

But scientists at government research agency NIWA aren't so sure.

NIWA principal climate scientist Brett Mullan did not believe there was enough evidence to support Australia's claim.

"Our view is it's maybe a little bit premature to call it more than a weak event; it's certainly premature to call it a strong event at this stage."

But Dr Mullan said NIWA believed there was an 80 percent chance of an El Nino event developing.

Drought continues in South Island

Meanwhile, Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy has said farmers on the east coast of the South Island are still suffering the effects of drought.

Mr Guy said it was particularly bad in North Canterbury and especially in Cheviot, which missed most of the recent rain in the area.

Mr Guy said it was likely the medium-scale drought classification would remain until August or September, depending on conditions over autumn.

He said soil moisture remained well below average and there were concerns about the availability of winter stock feed.

The minister said farmers should talk to their accountants if they need help or flexibility with making tax payments, and should revise feed budgets now, as winter feed may be limited.

The graphic shows the proportion of historic El Nino events (since 1950) that were dry in winter (left map) and in spring (right map) Photo / Metservice

El Niño - is it finally here?

El Nino to return with both rain and drought