Iran cuts off oil shipments to Spain

Comments by Mike Ruppert:

-- I consider this to be the first real response by Iran to the U.S./NATO evicting Iran out of the SWIFT transfer system. Spain is already crumbling under the weight of collapse and been frequently in our breaking news of late. It has been rocked by nationwide confrontations, demonstrations and riots over austerity, corruption, student debt and the brutality of banks. With the highest unemployment in Europe after Greece, Spain is not in a position to beg for "bailouts" (in any guise) which obviously do no one except the 1% any good. Spain is a heavy user of Iranian oil. We have passed Peak Oil and it is not possible to replace the oil lost without driving prices to a level where all economic activity seizes up everywhere in the world.

The European markets are responding immediately and the response speaks eloquently for itself. 

Since there is a 96% correlation between greenhouse gas emission and economic activity and growth is no longer possible I consider this to be a justified act of war in response to the multiple acts of war already perpetrated by the U.S., Israel and Europe against Iran over the last five months. It is a death blow to all pretense of being able to "recover" the European economy. The ramifications are already sending shock waves through Europe. Coming in advance of international talks on Iran's nuclear program (which I repeat has never been the real issue) this is now a huge bargaining chip because U.S.-led sanctions and attempts to provoke a conflict have failed completely. Iran has already bluntly refused any preconditions for the summit, scheduled for later this week.

Spain's nonsensical announcement that it will replace Iran's oil with supplies from Nigeria (see the World News Desk) is belied by the fact that Nigeria is breaking down too. It is beset by foreign-inspired guerrilla movements, civil unrest, infrastructure failure, power shortages, and one of the greatest man-made environmental catastrophes of all time. The Spanish announcement about Nigeria makes as much sense as the U.S. and Britain using strategic reserves to replace Iranian oil.

Bottom line: The west is utterly screwed. Egypt has begun realigning with Iran and breaking away from the U.S. Egypt has the Suez. To all of our members in Spain, buena suerta! Go out and plant something to eat.

Iran now holds the entire European economic house of cards (and with that the world) by the jugular. Spain is the third-largest economy in Europe and it is TBTF... Too Big To Fix. At the coming multi-power talks we are going to watch Iran beat the entire, dishonest western economic establishment over the head with the truth of Peak Oil. I consider that to be pretty solid proof that telling the truth always gives ultimate advantage (especially on a spiritual level) over one who lies. The first requirement in a survival situation is to honor and embrace reality. -- MCR

Iran Escalates Again, Cuts Off Oil Shipments To Spain

U.S. gasoline demand down almost 0.7 mln bpd in 5 yrs

Zero Hedge,

9 April, 2012

Those hoping for a quick and painless resolution to the Iranian question may have just seen their hopes dashed, following the breaking news from Iranian Press TV, according to which not only is Iran not seeking to appease its Western counterparts, but is, in fact escalating.

From Press TV:

Tehran has cut oil supply to Spain after halting crude export to Greece as part of its countersanctions against the European Union (EU), mulling oil supply cuts to Germany and Italy now,

"Countersactions" - lovely: another Swiss watch plan by the insolvent developed world.

Said otherwise, one can hardly threaten to do something to a country, which is already doing so voluntarily, in the process hurting Europe's already crippled economies even more by removing the cheapest source of energy for both.

Which however begs the question: just how much more Iranian crude are China and India importing despite promises to the contrary, and open warnings from the US not to do so?

Iran Sanction: Spain Switches over to Nigeria for Oil

Spain's crude imports from Iran dropped in January, while its supplies from Nigeria increased from 636,000 tonnes in December 2011 to 838,000 tonnes in January 2012, following the sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) on the Islamic Republic of Iran

This Day Live,

10 April, 2012

With this development, Nigeria has emerged the largest supplier of crude oil to Spain, after crude supplies from Saudi Arabia also dropped from 822,000 tonnes in December 2011 to 689,000 tonnes in January 2012.

Nigeria was the second-largest supplier of crude to Spain in December 2011, after Saudi Arabia, which supplied 822,000 tonnes.

Iraq is now the third-largest supplier of crude oil to Spain, with 657,000 tonnes.

According to Reuters, official data showed that Spain’s imports from Iran dropped from 407,000 tonnes in December 2011 to 279,000 tonnes in January 2012, representing 31 per cent decline.

In its latest monthly bulletin, strategic hydrocarbons reserve board CORES estimated that as a proportion of total imports, Iranian crude fell to six per cent in January from 9.5 per cent in December, which compares with around 14 per cent in previous months.

Spain, which needs to import virtually all of its crude, ramped up imports in January from Nigeria, Iraq and Libya, where production has been returning to normal after last year's civil war.

The EU imposed sanctions on Iran on January 23 over the Islamic republic's nuclear programme, although importers have until July 1, 2012 to execute previously signed contracts.

Reuters quoted trade sources as saying they expected Spain's crude imports from Iran to have dropped further in February.

Spain's biggest refiner, Repsol, has repeatedly declined to comment on details of its oil purchases, but in February, the government said the country's two biggest oil companies had arranged to switch imports from Iran to Saudi Arabia, Russia and, to a lesser extent, Iraq.

Cepsa, Spain's No. 2 refiner has said it plans to source crude from the United Arab Emirates.

Repsol has the capacity to refine 890,000 barrels per day and Cepsa, which is owned by Abu Dhabi investment vehicle IPIC, 430, 000 refines bpd.

Iran and the oil embargo

It would appear that the sanctions are rebounding on the West as much as they are hurting Iran

Iran has new markets for its oil despite sanctions

New customers for Iran's oil products; Iran's cut of oil exports to a few European countries, has depicted a gloomy picture for global markets with oil prices rising since Iran's decision. The decision came in retaliation for the EU's plan to place embargo on Iran's oil exports due to take effect on July 1..

South Africa buys Iranian oil

South Africa does not seem to have any difficulty buying Iranian oil. What does say about sanctions?

S.Africa Iranian oil imports soar in Feb

South African crude oil imports from Iran leapt in February to $364 million from zero the preceding month, customs data showed on Monday, dashing the view that Pretoria has bowed to U.S. pressure to curb commercial links with Tehran.

Reuters,

2 April, 2012

The Revenue Service said Africa's biggest economy imported 417,000 tonnes of Iranian crude in February, a dramatic reversal of a declining trend seen since October, when it imported 467,000 tonnes.

South Africa has come under Western pressure to cut Iranian crude imports as part of sanctions designed to halt Tehran's suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons, although it has been unclear how diplomatically non-aligned Pretoria is responding.

Senior energy and foreign ministry officials directly contradicted each other last month as to the status of Iranian imports.

However, January trade and customs data showed Iranian crude imports at zero compared with a monthly average of $280 million last year.

Iran has been South Africa's biggest crude supplier, accounting for a quarter of its oil imports.

The biggest South African buyer of Iranian crude is Engen, majority-owned by Malaysian national oil company Petronas . Engen has not commented, but a Petronas source told Reuters last month Engen had stopped buying Iranian oil from March.

Petrochemicals group Sasol, which took 12,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day, says its has already found new suppliers but has not named them.

In January, trade figures showed a spike in imports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Ecuador, suggesting they were being used as alternative suppliers to Iran.

In February, Saudi Arabia was South Africa's biggest supplier, with 582,000 tonnes of crude, followed by Iran, Nigeria, Angola an Ecuador.


OTHER STORIES:

Netanyahu says sanctions hurting Iran but not enough

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that international sanctions were hurting Iran's economy but not enough to persuade it to curb its nuclear ambitions even slightly."

Russian destroyer heads for Syria port: report

"A Russian navy destroyer will dock at the Syrian port of Tartus in the coming days after setting out on a planned mission to the region, agencies quoted military officials as saying Monday."

Russia rejects deadline for Annan’s Syria peace plan

Israeli-US Air, Naval Forces Train for Energy War

"Israeli, Greek and U.S. militaries are in an exercise in preparation for a possible war over Israel’s huge off-shore gas discoveries."

First US Marines in Australia under new security deal

South China Sea becomes major issue at ASEAN summit

China rejects sanctions

China says Iran oil imports legal, won't accept unilateral sanctions

Platts,

21 March, 2012

China's foreign ministry on Wednesday insisted its imports of Iranian oil were legal and indirectly blasted US unilateral sanctions aimed at persuading countries to reduce their oil purchases from the Islamic Republic.

"China legally imports oil from Iran through normal channels in a reasonable and fair manner," state news agency Xinhua reported, citing foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei.

"Beijing imports oil based on the country's economic development needs without violating relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and undermining the third party's and international community's interests," Xinhua said, paraphrasing Hong's remarks.

"China opposes any country implementing unilateral sanctions on the other country according to its domestic law," Hong told a daily press briefing when asked to comment on US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's announcement Tuesday that Washington would exempt Japan and 10 European countries from sanctions that would bar from the US financial system banks and other businesses dealing with Iranian banks. 

Clinton said Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan had sufficiently reduced their crude purchases from Iran. As a result, financial institutions based in those countries will not face sanctions that were passed last December as part of the US National Defense Authorization Act.

The exemption is good for 180 days, after which the countries will have to show further efforts to reduce imports of Iranian crude.

Washington has been trying to persuade Iran's top customers in Asia to reduce their oil purchases from the Islamic Republic, but China and India have given short shrift to the US requests.

Japan was deemed by the State Department to have "significantly reduced" its Iranian volumes. However, the country's imports of Iranian crude had already been on a downtrend that was set to continue.

News from Iran

China: No Problem for Importing Iranian Crude Oil

TEHRAN (FNA)- A senior Chinese economic official underscored Beijing's resolve to continue importing crude oil from Iran, and noted that his country faces no problem for importing Iranian oil.

Fars,

20 March, 2012

Managing-Director of the Chinese Shipping Development Company Yan Zhichong said Monday the company would continue importing oil from Iran despite West's unilateral sanctions against the country. 

Yan added that Beijing will by no means allow the sanctions reduce the volume of China's oil imports from Iran, the Islamic republic news agency reported. 

Yan stated that China's Shipping Development Company has, so far, faced no problems regarding importing oil products from Iran. 

Yan stressed that China would do its utmost to tackle Europe's sanctions against Iran. 

The company is the largest Chinese shipping and sea transportation company with 72 oil tankers. 

China is Iran's top trade partner, with economic ties expanding in recent years after the withdrawal of Western companies in line with sanctions against the Islamic Republic over its peaceful nuclear program. 

Beijing has also significantly increased its presence in Iran's oil and gas sector by signing a series of contracts worth up to 40 billion dollars in the past few years. 

China boosted its oil imports from Iran by 30% in 2011 despite the West's pressure on the world's second largest economy to lower economic ties with Iran. 

China's crude oil imports from Iran have amounted to 27.76 million metric tons in 2011, Chinese General Administration of Customs announced in February. 

The growth in China's oil imports from Iran came despite the West's efforts to rally support for an oil embargo on Iran. 

Despite the rules enshrined in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) entitling every member state, including Iran, to the right of uranium enrichment, Tehran is now under four rounds of UN Security Council sanctions for turning down West's calls to give up its right of uranium enrichment. 

Tehran has dismissed West's demands as politically tainted and illogical, stressing that sanctions and pressures merely consolidate Iranians' national resolve to continue the path. 

Iran Ups Oil Storage Capacity

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iran has re-commissioned a new storage facility at a Persian Gulf island as part of its measures to block the impacts of the current embargos imposed by the West on Iranian crude oil, an Iranian oil official stated.

Fars,

20 March, 2012

Managing director of Iranian Oil Terminals Company (IOTC) Seyyed Pirouz Mousavi said on Monday that, the country has re-commissioned a new storage facility at the Kharg Island oil terminal which can hold as much as one million barrels of crude. 

The official added that increasing oil storage capacity will improve oil production and export conditions. 

Mousavi had announced earlier that Iran is capable of storing crude oil in the Persian Gulf for a period of 10-12 days, adding that the figure should hit 30-40 days by building the new storage facilities. 

The Kharg oil terminal is currently handling about 98 percent of Iran's crude exports and the island has more than 40 storage facilities capable of holding a total amount of 22 million barrels of crude oil. 

In late January the EU imposed an oil embargo on Iran, with foreign ministers meeting in Brussels ruling that no further oil contracts could be struck between member states and the Islamic republic, though existing delivery deals would be allowed to run until July. 

Following the move, Tehran summoned the ambassadors of Italy, Spain, France, Greece, Portugal and the Netherlands to protest at the EU's unilateral sanctions against Tehran over its peaceful nuclear program, and warned them that it would soon stop oil exports to these countries if they do not reverse their decision. 

Tehran then cut oil supplies to Britain and France in February. Later last month Iran stopped crude delivery to Greece. 

Greece would be particularly affected by oil sanctions as other exporters have refused to deal with Greek traders. According to official reports, previous suppliers of crude oil, Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, have stopped trading with Greece due to precautionary measures in case Greece is unable to pay, even though thus far no payments have been reneged on. But, Iran has extended credit to Greece, which few other oil exporters are willing to do. 

Following the EU decision in January, the Iranian oil ministry in a statement downplayed the effects of the US and EU's unilateral oil sanctions against Tehran, and said such embargoes would merely harm the European economies and oil consuming countries. 

European sanctions against Iran's oil exports will affect the world economy and hurt the European and non-European countries, the statement said. 

"The hurried decision by the EU states to use oil as a political tool will have a negative impact on the world economy and specially on the recovering European economies which are fighting to overcome the global financial crisis," it added. 

The statement continued that since just 18 percent of oil produced by Iran is exported to European countries, the Islamic Republic can easily replace new markets with the European market. 

Several European refineries have gone bankrupt and shut down business after Tehran announced in January that it would soon cut supplies to those EU member states which would sign into the new sanctions against Iranian oil. 

The move away from the dollar

Iran’s Threat To The Dollar

By Marcus Goncalves

WBJ,

20 March, 2012

As Iran prepares to celebrate its greatest holiday of the year March 20, it also celebrates the end of the dollar as an acceptable currency for payment of its oil. Essentially, it will look toward other currencies and commodities.

The charter of the Iranian oil bourse, a commodity exchange that opened in 2008, calls for the commercialization of petroleum and other byproducts in other currencies, primarily the euro, Iranian rial and a basket of other major currencies. Iran sits on one of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world, and it plans to develop an oil market that won’t accept U.S. dollars. In fact, Iran has proposed the creation of a Petrochemical Exporting Countries Forum (PECF), aimed at financial and technological cooperation among members, as well as product pricing and policy making in production issues, not unlike those of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

This issue isn’t new; in the last decade, some countries in Latin America, the most “dollarized” region in the world, began introducing measures toward internalizing the risks of dollarization, developing capital markets in local currencies, and allowing for the de-dollarization of deposits. All contribute to a decline in dollar-backed credit globally, predominantly in Latin America and the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China.

For several decades, the embracing of the dollar has been the primary source of financial vulnerability that triggered crises in BRIC countries, as well as in Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa. The urge to de-dollarize, or withdraw from U.S. Treasury bills and the dollar, is a direct result of foreign countries’ mistrust in Washington’s ability to control its massive budget deficits. This arises from the fact that dollarization almost invariably undermines monetary policies conducted by foreign states’ central banks, limiting their roles as lenders of last resort and creating revenue losses when they print and issue new currency. Foreign countries are realizing that often, dollarization makes them vulnerable to changes in U.S. currency policy.

Ever since President Obama signed one of the most severe sanction bills against Iran, that country appears determined to phase out the dollar as a form of payment for its oil and derived products. If Iran follows through with its decision, it may trigger intense reaction from Washington, especially for the dollar-reserve currency, mainly supported by Saudi Arabia’s determination to accept only dollars for oil.

Despite the U.S.-Iran conflicts, the de-dollarization debate has heated up around the world. Is it a realistic global goal? Can Iran and other countries trigger a chain of events that would threaten the dollar’s status as the world's premiere reserve currency? What would be the consequences to the U.S. and the world economy if the dollar were no longer OPEC’s measure of pricing oil? Certainly, we would no longer be able to brag about having the lowest gasoline prices. They would likely skyrocket, essentially increasing the prices of all other commodities, making life on Main Street more arduous.

Dr. Marcus Goncalves is assistant professor of management and chair of the international business program at Nichols College in Dudley.

Iran presses ahead with dollar attack

Last week, the Tehran Times noted that the Iranian oil bourse will start trading oil in currencies other than the dollar from March 20. This long-planned move is part of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s vision of economic war with the west.

the Telegraph,

12 March, 2012

“The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme is nothing more than a convenient excuse for the US to use threats to protect the 'reserve currency’ status of the dollar,” the newspaper, which calls itself the voice of the Islamic Revolution, said.

“Recall that Saddam [Hussein] announced Iraq would no longer accept dollars for oil purchases in November 2000 and the US-Anglo invasion occurred in March 2003,” the Times continued. “Similarly, Iran opened its oil bourse in 2008, so it is a credit to Iranian negotiating ability that the 'crisis’ has not come to a head long before now.”

Iran has the third-largest oil reserves in the world and pricing oil in currencies other than dollars is a provocative move aimed at Washington. If Iran switches to the non-dollar terms for its oil payments, there could be a new oil price that would be denominated in euro, yen or even the yuan or rupee.

India is already in talks with Iran over how it can pay for its oil in rupees.

Even more surprisingly, reports have suggested that India is even considering paying for its oil in gold bullion. However, it is more likely that the country will pay in rupees, a currency that is not freely convertible.

Last week, Indian state-owned group Hindustan Petroleum said that Indian businesses could not pay for Iranian crude imports in rupees unless the federal finance ministry exempted such payments from crippling withholding tax. This issue remains unresolved.

India and Iran have agreed – but not yet started – to settle 45pc of payments for Iranian oil in rupees. Iran will then use the currency to buy imports from India.

New Delhi currently spends about $12bn (£7.6bn) on Iranian oil each year, importing 12pc of the country’s needs from the country.

India pays for its oil in dollars, routed through a bank in Turkey after a previous mechanism was shut down in 2010. The Indian government has been resisting calls to stop importing oil from the pariah state.

“There have been problems with regard to Iran’s nuclear programme,” Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, said on Friday. “We sincerely believe that this issue can be and should be resolved by giving maximum scope to diplomacy.”

All of this means that the EU ban on Iranian oil imports, which comes into force on July 1, could hit Europe harder than it does Iran.

The country currently supplies 500,000 barrels of oil per day to the EU and there is a potential oil price spike in the offing should Iran pre-emptively stop the flow of oil to Europe, which it has threatened to do.

This could be disastrous to businesses that are already finding the economic climate tough.

“While Iran may be able to find markets for much of its oil output in Asia, the alternative sources of supply to Europe are still unclear,” Caroline Bain, a commodities analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said.

“Until the supply outlook stabilises, the oil price is expected to continue to reflect this uncertainty rather than the likelihood of lower growth in global oil consumption in 2012.”

The worries are already sending ripples of concern around the world.

“While we have been listing the Iranian situation as a source of upside risk for a decade, there are some new factors that can make for a far more dangerous outcome, as the current drift of policy on both sides is creating the risk of a significant escalation,” Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said.

“Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, causing an anticipated 50pc rise in crude oil prices, resulting in widespread economic havoc,” the Tehran Times columnist noted.

So the EU ban could be counter productive, as it keeps the oil price high. However, as long as President Ahmadinejad’s economic war doesn’t escalate into an actual war, we may manage to avoid a crippling oil spike.

Divisions between intelligence and politicians

Commentary from London on Iran and divisions in Israel and the US between the intelligence community and the politicians.

Mossad agrees Iran has no nuke bomb plot

RT

Reacting to being cut off by the SWIFT banking system - Iran has now threatened to block the Straight of Hormuz - a major artery in global oil shipping. That warning comes as US and Israeli intelligence agencies, the CIA and Mossad, admit that Iran hasn't yet decided to develop nuclear weapons. And Peter Rushton, political analyst and historian, says it's ideology, not facts, driving talk of war against Iran.

Courting terrorists

Mujahideen-e Khalq: Former U.S. Officials Make Millions Advocating For Terrorist Organization

From Aotearoa- a Wider Perspective

WASHINGTON — The ornate ballroom of the Willard Hotel buzzed with activity on a Saturday morning in July. Crowded together on the stage sat a cadre of the nation’s most influential former government officials, the kind whose names often appear in boldface, who’ve risen above daily politics to the realm of elder statesmen. They were perched, as they so often are, below a banner with a benign conference title on it, about to offer words of pricey wisdom to an audience with an agenda.

That agenda: to secure the removal of the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK) from the U.S. government’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. A Marxian Iranian exile group with cult-like qualities, Mujahideen-e Khalq was responsible for the killing of six Americans in Iran in the 1970s, along with staging a handful of bombings. But for a terrorist organization with deep pockets, it appears there’s always hope.

Onstage next to former FBI director Louis Freeh sat Ed Rendell, the former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania and current MSNBC talking head; former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean; former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Hugh Shelton; former Secretary of Veterans Affairs Togo West; former State Department Director of Policy Planning Mitchell Reiss; former Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. James T. Conway; Anita McBride, the former chief of staff to First Lady Laura Bush; and Sarah Sewall, a Harvard professor who sits on a corporate board with Reiss.

For more GO HERE

Prospects for Iran closing Gulf of Hormuz

Iran's Arsenal Of Sunburn Missiles Is More Than Enough To Close The Strait

Business Insider,
8 February, 2012

Any good armchair general with a good search engine and time on their hands can figure out in a hurry that the song and dance about Iran being unable to close the Strait if Hormuz for long  is just a plain crock. Worse than a crock. Yet, this big Orwellian lie persists, so once again I have to set the record straight. Iran has the capability of not only closing the Strait for some time, but creating a world of hurt for the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.

Iran possesses a build up of anti-ship weapons called Sunburn missiles, which it has procured from Russia and China over the last decade. These are top-notch weapons developed by the Russians as a low-cost challenge to the expensive, tech-heavy weaponry of the U.S., and specifically the aircraft carrier task force.  A conflict, which I now assign a high probability to [see Scenario for an Israel Attack on Iran], is going to be a huge test of a global-naval doctrine that Russia and China will watch with tremendous interest. That’s why I think they have armed Iran to the teeth. The big question: How many of these weapons does Iran have? I would suggest thousands, and that this is the real show.

Given that U.S. crony logic seems to be about squandering money on weapons in the military-industrial complex, I fear for young sailors and marines on the 5th Fleet. Don’t get me wrong, the US Navy is professional, but the Strait doesn’t allow for the normal defense in depth available in open seas, in fact it offers the Iranians a cross fire setup or triangulation (see map of Strait below) . If you read discussions on various military sites, there is a lively debate on American ship defense system like the Aegis.  However, almost nobody claims this to be fully protective against ship strikes. And an oil tanker, no way.  It is important that the US is working on new generation lasar defense to counter these missiles, however they are still in development. This puts added pressure for Iran to have this fight now, not later. The following is from  ”Russian Military Equality Network. (I have cleaned up the English a bit]

U.S. Navy Pacific Commander Admiral Timothy Keating said that due to lack of sufficient funds for the procurement of simulated target missile defense system,  the U.S. Navy can not now afford to fight “the club” category of supersonic anti-ship missiles. It is reported that the U.S. military that is used to simulate the “club” missile target missile is still being developed, and is expected to be put into use in 2014.

The Sunburn is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world, designed to fly as low as 9 feet above ground/water at more than 1,500 miles per hour (mach 2+).  The missile uses a violent pop-up maneuver for its terminal approach to throw off Phalanx and other U.S. anti-missile defense systems. Given their low cost, they’re perfectly suited for close quarter naval conflict in the bathtub-like Persian Gulf.

The Sunburn is versatile, and can be fired from practically any platform, including just a flat bed truck. It has a 90-mile range, which is all that is necessary in the small Persian Gulf and 40-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz.  Fired from shore a missile could hit a ship in the Strait in less than a minute. It presents a real threat to the U.S. Navy. Tests using the Aegean and RAM ship defense technology stops the Sunburn 95% of the time, but such testing was done in open seas, not a bathtub. The payload hit with a 750-pound conventional warhead  can be witnessed at 1:53-1:57 in this video. Not enough to sink a carrier, but it could take down smaller capital ships and crew.

You don’t have to be Hannibal preparing for the Battle of Cannae to see that the Strait is a potential shooting gallery. Without a doubt, Iran has plotted and mapped every firing angle and location along the Gulf, their home-court coastline. This is going to put enormous interdiction pressure on U.S. warplanes to spot and destroy platforms, which may be as simple as a flat-bed truck. In reality, Iran has dug in from Jask in the east to Bandar in the west and can easily cover any ship, commercial or military, traversing the narrow Strait.

Equally disturbing is Iran’s missile range for the entire Persian Gulf. Bahrain itself could be hit by the longer-range version of the Sunburn, the Onyx. Is the U.S. (which has three aircraft carrier groups in play currently) going to stick around or clear out to the Oman Sea, leaving control of the oil lanes to Iran? Or will they stay and slug it out with the Iranians? If so, at what cost? Iran’s strategic advantage may mean some losses for the 5th Fleet, if this gets played out on Iran’s home court.

Israeli cabinet approves attack on Iran

-- From other stories today we see that, of course, the U.S. is totally supporting Israel. There is no sanity or reason left in world leadership which -- from the perspective of infinite growth and an archaic consciousness -- sees no other option. Oil prices are already unbearable for economic activity all over the world. As soon as the strike is launched they will go to levels that will produce near-immediate and almost unfathomable dislocations.

And when the strike occurs, the only thing we need be watchful for are the reactions of Russia, China and Iran. Because on those rest the future of all life on Mother Earth. I see no "actors" on the world stage with the ability to prevent a global holocaust. -- MCR

Brent At $126 As Israel Israeli Security Cabinet Votes 8 To 6 To Attack Iran

Zero Hedge,

16 March, 2012

Looking at the tranquil sea that is the S&P one may be forgiven to ignore the rapid intraday surge in Brent which was up over $3 in a few hours, approaching $126 once again. But why? After all the FOMC minutes were oh so very slightly hawkish, and not to mention that the Fed's scribe Hilsenrath told everyone at best the Fed would proceed with sterilized QE which would leave risk prices untouched.

Maybe it has something to do with this.

According to Israel's NRG, in a just completed cabinet vote, for the first time Netanyahu has gotten a majority (8 over 6) supporting an Iran attack. NRG also notes that at this point Israel has decided to not wait until the US elections in November before proceeding with sending crude to the stratosphere.

 From NRG (google translated): "Israeli political sources believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a majority Cabinet support Israeli military action against Iran without American approval....He announced that he would not hesitate to perform the operation without the approval of President Obama mentioned the precedent of the decision to attack the Iraqi reactor, Prime Minister Menachem Begin, and with the comments heard yesterday some cabinet ministers say privately that "It sounds like a speech preparation for attack." Political - Security Cabinet 14 ministers. According to estimates, at this stage tend to support Netanyahu and Barak's approach eight ministers, and six against it (including the traditional opponents octet: Moshe Ya'alon, Dan Meridor, Benny Begin and Eli Yishai)." So... $4.00 gas is just around the corner. As is, probably, $5.00 gas. And $6.00 gas.

And from Richard Silverstein's blog:

Just when you thought it was safe to come out from your air raid shelter after Bibi returned from his U.S. foray to stoke up war fever, Maariv raises the temperature to a boiling point.  Ben Caspit reports (Hebrew) that the cabinet now has, for the first time, a majority (eight votes for, six votes against) favoring the measure.  This means that theoretically Bibi can begin an attack at any time.  Of course, it could mean something different: it could mean the cabinet has approved a strike at any point in future with Bibi determining the timing.  So it doesn’t necessarily mean the F-16s will fly tonight or tomorrow.  But it could:

Cabinet Majority Supports Iran Attack

The prime minister yesterday delivered one of the most combative and explicit speeches in the history of the Iran affair.  Several cabinet ministers said in private conversations that it sounded like a “speech preparing for war.”

Political sources judge that the prime minister has a majority in the cabinet which favors a military strike against Iran, even without American approval.  Yesterday, Netanyahu said he wouldn’t hesitate to attack Iran even without the approval of Pres. Obama…A senior official said Bibi believed it would be best not to wait for the November presidential elections because he didn’t trust the president to deal with the problem after the election.

So it appears that the dies is cast. Our ETA for the earliest possible offensive? Not before CVN-65 Enterprise reaches CVN 70 and CVN 74, sometime over the next 3-5 days. Of course, this is not a prediction of war.

Just a logistical notice.

More confirmation of this story - 

Israeli Cabinet Has Majority To Approve Attack On Iran

Centintel.com,

15 March, 2012

Sources tell Centintel that for the first time ever the Israeli Cabinet has reached the votes needed to approve an attack on Iran, which they have now done. It is important to note that Centintel is not saying that Israel will attack Iran within days, but they could, more so the approval is an authorization of the attack and the timing is at the discretion of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Prime Minister was called yesterday to address a special session of the Knesset which was held to debate the perceived failures of his government. Netanyahu’s speech was his most impassioned yet and he took aim at Iran as well as his political enemies. Reminiscing about Menachem Begin’s attack on Iraq and it’s Osirak reactor Netanyahu stated that Begin “never placed (Israel’s) fate in the hands of others, not even the best of friends.”

This confirms Centintel’s analysis that reports of constraints placed on the Israeli government with respect towards attacking Iran were overblown, if they ever existed they hold no weight. With the delivering of JDAM missiles and promises of refueling Israel has nothing stopping it from attacking Iran. The Netanyahu government which has been saying time is running out for months now, can simply say that they had to act to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

It would appear that Netanyahu is now on a PR offensive to gain support for an attack not just in Israel but also through out the world.

Netanyahu said that Iran was behind the attacks on southern Israel and warned of Iran giving Hamas and other Palestinian militants a nuclear weapon.

Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told her Russian colleague that April’s nuclear talks would be the last chance given to Iran to disarm. Centintel believes this is a direct threat. If Iran does not give in by then Obama’s hands are tied he can no longer hold Israel off and he can no longer reach out to Iran with a straight face.

If Israel attack’s Iran by itself the damage done to the Islamic Republic there will not be as bad as a coalition attack on Iran. Centintel believes that Israel has the capability to severely cripple the Iranian nuclear program if not destroy it entirely. The question is are they capable of fending off the response that occurs afterwards? If the 2006 War in Lebanon and Operation Cast Lead are any indication, they do not. However that was 5 years ago and the IDF has instituted a number of reforms since then. Whether the Israeli high command executes these measures successfully can only be known if Israel is attacked.

Centintel will go out on a limb now and say barring no last ditch diplomatic initiative or Israeli hesitation an attack on Iran could come by late April or sometime in May.

"Licking the hand of America"

Iran is playing its hand wisely. It holds the cards and it is employing carrot and stick. The attack on Iran is off the table and Barack the Bloody has shown at least a modicum of sanity. -- MCR

Ayatollah Khamenei praises Obama

RT,

8 March, 2012

Israel may be at odds with the Obama White House over Washington’s hesitance to sign off on a strike against Iran, but overseas America has found support in an unusual fair-weather friend: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Ayatollah Khamenei, the highest authority figure within the Islamic Republic of Iran, is publically applauding US President Barack Obama over the American commander-in-chief’s insistence in postponing any military pressure overseas. Although Israel and America have both expressed concern over the possibility of a nuclear warhead procurement program in Iran, President Obama has insisted on relying on diplomatic sanctions to squash any WMD projects, much to the chagrin of trigger-happy Israelis and the president’s Republican Party rivals.

Both Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were in Washington this week to discuss, among other things, the impeding problem of an Iranian threat. Although Jerusalem continues to seek justification for a joint strike on Iran, the White House has been hesitant to formally endorse any military action. Responding to this reluctance that has served as fodder for Obama’s GOP rivals, Ayatollah Khamenei is now stressing his support over the United States’ handling of what some say is only an imminent war.

Discussing Obama’s insistence on relying on sanctions over strikes, Khamenei was quoted on his website this week as saying that “This talk is good talk and shows an exit from illusion.”

Conservative American leaders have thrown their weight behind backing Israel over any chance of an Iranian threat, and although Barack Obama has appeared to be close to buckling to both GOP and Israeli pressure as of late, he has yet to formally full-on support a military strike. On Tuesday, Obama even added that there was indeed still a “window” for diplomacy in regards to wrangling out a deal with Tehran.

Although Khamenei applauded Obama over his lack of aggressiveness, he adds, “But the US president continued saying that he wants to make the Iranian people kneel through sanctions, this part of this speech shows the continuation of illusion in this issue.”

Obama has previously gone on the record to say “crippling sanctions” against Iran would eventually force the country to reconsider any alternative energy plan that could put a nuke in the hands of the country’s leaders. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, a frontrunner in the contest to usurp Obama from the Oval Office, recently, said that despite the president’s pleas, current diplomatic efforts were failing.

According to Romney, Obama has “failed to put into place crippling sanctions against Iran,” and speaking from Georgia last week added, "He's also failed to communicate that military options are on the table and in fact in our hand. And that it's unacceptable to America for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

"I will have those military options, I will take those crippling sanctions and put them into place, and I will speak out to the Iranian people of the peril of them becoming nuclear. It's pretty straight-forward in my view,” added Romney.

On Thursday, Israeli intelligence sources speaking with Reuters leaked that Israel’s PM Netanyahu asked President Obama for the United States’ patented “bunker-buster” bombs during their discussions in Washington this week. Both leaders were among the speakers at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, conference in the US capital.