Showing posts with label war Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label war Iran. Show all posts

Monday, 19 March 2012

The people on the street in Teheran


Today as I post this - with concerns about war in the Gulf and rising oil prices all I can get on Radio New Zealand is the death of the king of Tonga - none of this seems to exist.
“Go back to sleep”

Talk of war and rising prices cast uneasy pall over Iran
By Mitra Mobasherat and Moni Basu



18 March, 2012


At Sepideh's home in the Iranian capital, the television is more often switched to "America's Next Top Model" and "American Idol" than the news.

Not that the 22-year-old college student wants anyone to think her superficial, but it's her way of coping with the ominous -- the heated rhetoric of war with Israel and the United States.

"My friends and I don't talk about politics or the thought of a war," she says, laughing. "I stopped watching the news all together. It's too depressing."

Sepideh is not unlike millions of Iranians who, like their neighboring Iraqis did in early 2003, fear war is looming.

Some are less worried than others -- a Tehran fast food worker says Israel has been threatening Iran for years and this time is more of the same bluster.

Still, all the bellicose talk from national leaders and punishing international sanctions trickling down to average Iranians who are paying higher prices for food and basic commodities, has cast an uneasy pall over life's routine.

Israel has threatened to bomb Iran to end or at least set back Iran's nuclear ambitions. Iran insists its nuclear program is strictly for energy purposes and has said it will not hesitate to strike back at its enemies.

U.S. President Barack Obama has stated Iran developing nuclear weapons is not acceptable and that Washington "will always have Israel's back."

That sort of talk is unsettling to Sepideh, who like others in this story did not want their full names used for fear of repercussion.

She tries to go about life focusing on her education and hanging out with friends in tony Tehran coffee shops. She buys Hollywood at the local bazaar and swoons over Johnny Depp. In many ways she is not unlike her American counterparts except that Sepideh lives in the Islamic Republic and her government is considered an enemy of Washington.os
sible totential attack on Iran.
She thinks longingly about moving to America one day. In her country, she feels, she will never be able to freely express herself or her passion for art, music, films. She cannot fathom why the United States would consider an attack Iran.

"I understand why America doesn't like our government. They don't agree that they should impose Islam on our society but that should not give them a reason for war," she says.

Her parents worry that the bombing of Iran would create another situation like Iraq in 2003. They are especially concerned because Sepideh's brother is 17 and because of Iran's mandatory conscription, he will have to serve in the military after high school.

"If there were a war, no doubt my brother would be in danger," she says.

The family has applied for visas through Sepideh's aunt in California. Sepideh prays every night that they will be granted.

"I have faith in (Barack) Obama's policies," she says. "I think he is a smart man who in the end will make the right decision to not start a war with Iran."

Nevertheless, a sense of panic is on the rise in cities and towns across Iran over the prospect of guns and no butter.

Tighter sanctions drove down the Iranian currency, the rial, and Iranians gobbled up gold, American dollars and even real estate in order to protect their savings.

Food prices have soared, too, prompting some to stockpile basic items in case an even darker day looms over the horizon.

This week the strangling of Iran's finances got tighter. SWIFT, the world's largest electronic banking system, agreed to cut off Iranian banks and individuals on the European Union's sanctions list.

Starting at noon Saturday, Iran will be severed from the main vehicle for monetary transactions. Iran's business partners, including vital crude oil customers who account for half of the government's revenues, will have to find an alternative way to pay.

Beyond staggering inflation and a plunging national currency, analysts fear Iranians now could face shortages of essential goods like food and medicine.

Retired elementary school teacher Shikoufeh, 67, lives in the city of Isfahan, just south of Natanz, an uranium enrichment facility for power plants or potentially for bombs.

In her modest two-bedroom apartment, she cares for her two grandchildren because her daughter was forced to go back to work to make ends meet. She takes the children for walks in a nearby park and wonders what would happen if Israel conducted military strikes against Iran's nuclear plants and military installations.

"Iranians are educated, fun-loving people," she says. "We are against war and against aggression."

She wishes Americans knew more about the rich history of her country -- art, music, poetry -- and about the turmoil Iranians have survived.

"I honestly think they look at us as terrorists, like the ones that are portrayed in the movies,' she says. "They think we wear burkas like they do in Afghanistan, and don't allow women to drive like in Saudi Arabia. Iran is different, we are different. We want peace like anyone else in this world."

Shikoufeh's anxiety is heightened on Sundays when she heads to the fruit and vegetable market. Last week, the price of tomatoes went up so much that she could not justify buying them. The butcher told her he hadn't seen profit in two months -- who can afford to buy meat anymore?

She tried to buy U.S. dollars recently but the bank informed her of limits on how much she could exchange.

"I always like to save some dollars in my house, just in case," she says.

Nowruz, the Persian new year, is coming up March 20, but Shikoufeh says this year, the traditional meals and large get togethers will be a lot simpler.

"I'm worried that our beautiful country will become similar to what the Americans did to Iraq," she says. "I pray to God they don't. I love America and love Americans. They are lovely people. But I don't understand the need to meddle in our country's issues."

She says she is willing to live with Iran's problems, if only she could have a guarantee of no war.

"That would be the end to our livelihoods and the little freedom we have now," she says.

Back in Tehran, Amir, 39, says he is more concerned about facing economic hardship than dodging missiles and rockets.

"It's all bluffing and political nonsense," says the university English instructor about threats from Israel and the West.

"This happens every few years between Iran, Israel and the U.S. This is normal," he says. "In a month it will quiet down again and in two years it will flare up again. This is the political wheel, always spinning. Obama has said he doesn't want a war with Iran, and we all know Israel cannot proceed with a war alone."

Amir sees money as his number one problem. He resents having to rely on his parents for support but he, his wife and child are forced to stay in an extra apartment at his parents' home. Even though he has a degree and good job, his salary is no match for the prices at the market
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"My advice to my country is to open our doors to the world," he says. "Let's show them that we have a right to nuclear technology, and that we are not making nuclear weapons. The Western nations always want to have their hands in other countries. I'm pretty sure unemployment and crime is high in America. Shouldn't they be focusing on that?"

The tension within Iran is affecting people outside its borders, too.

Tina, 36, and Shermineh, 34, fled Iran with their mother after the 1979 revolution and have not been back since. They have not seen their grandparents since they were babies.

Tina says her grandmother weeps on the phone every week when they speak over the continents and oceans. To see her granddaughters again would help her die a "blessed old woman."

The sisters, who live in Los Angeles, planned to return to their homeland for the very first time for the Persian new year. They booked their tickets and arranged their trip to Tabriz, the city where her family used to live.

"I was most excited about seeing all the places my mom talks about," Tina says. That included the house where her mother was born.

But a few weeks ago, once news broke of Israel possibly planning a spring strike, Tina's mother canceled the trip for her daughters.

"I understand its for our safety, but I am really disappointed," Tina says. "I hope one day this political mess will clear up and we can go. I'm not giving up, but when I turn on the news, it doesn't seem like things are getting better."

For now all that Tina and her sister will have to wait to see what the future bodes. As will all of Iran.

Prospects for Iran closing Gulf of Hormuz

Iran's Arsenal Of Sunburn Missiles Is More Than Enough To Close The Strait


Business Insider,
8 February, 2012

Any good armchair general with a good search engine and time on their hands can figure out in a hurry that the song and dance about Iran being unable to close the Strait if Hormuz for long  is just a plain crock. Worse than a crock. Yet, this big Orwellian lie persists, so once again I have to set the record straight. Iran has the capability of not only closing the Strait for some time, but creating a world of hurt for the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.

Iran possesses a build up of anti-ship weapons called Sunburn missiles, which it has procured from Russia and China over the last decade. These are top-notch weapons developed by the Russians as a low-cost challenge to the expensive, tech-heavy weaponry of the U.S., and specifically the aircraft carrier task force.  A conflict, which I now assign a high probability to [see Scenario for an Israel Attack on Iran], is going to be a huge test of a global-naval doctrine that Russia and China will watch with tremendous interest. That’s why I think they have armed Iran to the teeth. The big question: How many of these weapons does Iran have? I would suggest thousands, and that this is the real show.



Given that U.S. crony logic seems to be about squandering money on weapons in the military-industrial complex, I fear for young sailors and marines on the 5th Fleet. Don’t get me wrong, the US Navy is professional, but the Strait doesn’t allow for the normal defense in depth available in open seas, in fact it offers the Iranians a cross fire setup or triangulation (see map of Strait below) . If you read discussions on various military sites, there is a lively debate on American ship defense system like the Aegis.  However, almost nobody claims this to be fully protective against ship strikes. And an oil tanker, no way.  It is important that the US is working on new generation lasar defense to counter these missiles, however they are still in development. This puts added pressure for Iran to have this fight now, not later. The following is from  ”Russian Military Equality Network. (I have cleaned up the English a bit]

U.S. Navy Pacific Commander Admiral Timothy Keating said that due to lack of sufficient funds for the procurement of simulated target missile defense system,  the U.S. Navy can not now afford to fight “the club” category of supersonic anti-ship missiles. It is reported that the U.S. military that is used to simulate the “club” missile target missile is still being developed, and is expected to be put into use in 2014.

The Sunburn is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world, designed to fly as low as 9 feet above ground/water at more than 1,500 miles per hour (mach 2+).  The missile uses a violent pop-up maneuver for its terminal approach to throw off Phalanx and other U.S. anti-missile defense systems. Given their low cost, they’re perfectly suited for close quarter naval conflict in the bathtub-like Persian Gulf.

The Sunburn is versatile, and can be fired from practically any platform, including just a flat bed truck. It has a 90-mile range, which is all that is necessary in the small Persian Gulf and 40-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz.  Fired from shore a missile could hit a ship in the Strait in less than a minute. It presents a real threat to the U.S. Navy. Tests using the Aegean and RAM ship defense technology stops the Sunburn 95% of the time, but such testing was done in open seas, not a bathtub. The payload hit with a 750-pound conventional warhead  can be witnessed at 1:53-1:57 in this video. Not enough to sink a carrier, but it could take down smaller capital ships and crew.


You don’t have to be Hannibal preparing for the Battle of Cannae to see that the Strait is a potential shooting gallery. Without a doubt, Iran has plotted and mapped every firing angle and location along the Gulf, their home-court coastline. This is going to put enormous interdiction pressure on U.S. warplanes to spot and destroy platforms, which may be as simple as a flat-bed truck. In reality, Iran has dug in from Jask in the east to Bandar in the west and can easily cover any ship, commercial or military, traversing the narrow Strait.
Equally disturbing is Iran’s missile range for the entire Persian Gulf. Bahrain itself could be hit by the longer-range version of the Sunburn, the Onyx. Is the U.S. (which has three aircraft carrier groups in play currently) going to stick around or clear out to the Oman Sea, leaving control of the oil lanes to Iran? Or will they stay and slug it out with the Iranians? If so, at what cost? Iran’s strategic advantage may mean some losses for the 5th Fleet, if this gets played out on Iran’s home court.

Ron Paul on real reasons for war on Iran

-- Ron Paul understands the issues very well. He understands that Iran's great crime is its very credible threat to U.S. dollar hegemony. The Iranian oil bourse has had a long and fitful history of rumored starts and expectations. But, in light of the unprecedented denial of access to the SWIFT transfer system, it's a "do or die" moment for Iran.
This is Iran's great crime. The issue is not the alleged pursuit of a nuclear weapon. It never has been. Just as so many of us established over four or five years, Saddam Hussein's great crime was that he intended to trade Iraqi oil in the then-viable Euro. -- MCR

March 20: Iranian Oil Bourse Will Start Trading Oil for Other Currencies than Dollar
19 February, 2012

“If the Washington/Tel Aviv-promoted hysteria is already at fever pitch, wait for March 20, when the Iranian oil bourse will start trading oil in other currencies apart from the US dollar, heralding the arrival of a new oil marker to be denominated in euro, yen, yuan, rupee or a basket of currencies.


Iran stops oil sales to British, French companies


Greek Default Exclusive: Senior US Bankers Given Explicit Timetable For Athens Default - March 23, 2012


Gas prices are highest ever for this time of year


Red Alert: Huge Plunge In Petroleum and Gasoline Usage, yet prices are up? Stock Market up?


Sunday, 18 March 2012

Iran: the clock is ticking

-- Over the course of the last week we have seen unmistakable signs of full mobilization. We have seen the U.S.'s global humiliation dramatically worsen in the wake of the Kandahar massacre and a rout of NATO forces looms large.

I do not know what can stop this now. I have no answers because answers or "solutions" are predicated upon rational behavior. We are all helpless spectators now. I am one of many who has given his life to bring about the needed change before we arrived at this point. Now that we are here there is nothing to do except wait, watch, pray and hope for an outcome other than global nuclear war. --MCR

The Navy is sending everything it needs to the Strait of Hormuz


16 March, 2012

The global signs of a coming military conflict with Iran continue to build, and today the U.S. Navy made clear its intentions by announcing it's sending four additional mine countermeasure ships to the Strait of Hormuz.

Stars and Stripes reports the Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he's sending the mine ships in addition to four airborne mine countermeasure helicopters.

Iran has already warned that one of its first steps in closing the Strait of Hormuz, and choking off 40 percent of the world's oil supply, will be to mine the strait and deploy its fleet of small electronic submarines.

Greenert was recently aboard the USS John C. Stennis when it was tailed through the strait by the Iranians and came away from that ride thinking "[W]e could do better setting the theater. I wanted to be sure ... that we are ready..."

To get "ready" Greenert is also bringing upgrades to mine neutralization vehicles, submarine torpedoes, optics, and weapons to counter the swarm maneuvers employed by the Iranian navy.

This move will double the number of minesweepers in the Persian Gulf, but Greenert declined to call the deployments a surge, as when forces are built up for a planned operation, instead telling reporters: "I'm not going to define it as a surge. You called it a deployment, how's that"

The four ships, the Sentry, Devastator, Pioneer, and Warrior will join the Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain from San Diego. Their departure date has not yet been announced, as part of operational security.

They will likely be transported by the Navy's heavy-lift ships which travel at about 16 mph.



5 Signs That A War With Iran Is Close

The clock is ticking closer to the midnight hour regarding a strike in Iran. Israel might do it alone, but will likely have the backing of the U.S.


16 March, 2012

Is a war imminent, or are these moves just meant to scare Iran? Here are 5 signs that have piled up very recently.

1. SWIFT Cuts Iran Off: The international institution responsible for around 80 percent of the world’s financial transactions announced that it will cut off Iranian financial institutions from its system from Saturday. This unprecedented move is a big blow to Iran, and follows up on EU sanctions.

2. Majority in Israeli cabinet for strike: Israeli newspaper Maariv (Hebrew link, quote in English) by Ben Caspit saying that 8 out of 14 Israeli cabinet members now support a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The cabinet can give Prime Minister Netanyahu the green light for a strike, at the time he sees fit.

3. Netanyahu preparing Israeli public: The Israeli Prime Minister continues the tough rhetoric against Iran also after coming back from his long visit in the US. Analysts see this as a preparation of the Israeli public for a war.

4. Using Oil Reserves: There was a report, later denied, that the US and the U.K. decided on releasing oil from the emergency reserves in order to lower prices. This could be another preparation.

5. “Last Chance” Warning: According to Russian sources, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked the Russians to send a message to Iran that the upcoming 6-nation talks with Iran are the last chance before military action.

Needless to say, oil prices certainly play a role in the considerations of all sides. Iran is the world’s 5th largest producer of oil, and sits on the Straights of Hormuz, where 40 percent of the world’s shipments pass through.

All these moves could mount to a preparation for a U.S.-backed Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. It could also just add to pressure against Iran, trying to force it to comply without really engaging in military action.

There are many other interests that push leaders to higher rhetoric, such as internal politics. 
Further reading:

• How will Currencies React to a conflict in Iran? – Apart from the rise in oil prices, currencies will certainly shake.

• Report: Gold for Oil: India and Iran Ditch Dollar – This might become reality with the SWIFT cutoff.

• Will Oil Prices Go Down an Elevator? – History suggest that oil will be depressed afterwards, for a long time.

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Explosive Words - US Media First to Bomb Iran

US Media First to Bomb Iran

RT

America's mainstream media is being accused of playing with fire for playing-up the prospect of war, between Iran and the West. It's a sensitive time with the military stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz, and looming sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. But, as Gayane Chichakyan reports, viewers in the States are repeatedly hearing how war is virtually inescapable.


Monday, 16 January 2012

Michael Ruppert and Michel Chossudovsky

Today on his Lifeboat Hour Michael Ruppert interviewed Prof. Michel Chossudovsky of Global Research.




Prof. Chossudovsky is professor of economics (emeritus) at the University of Ottawa. Chossudovsky has been a visiting professor in countries throughout Western Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America. 


Also, he has been involved with consulting several different international organizations and has been an advisor to governments of developing countries. Chossudovsky is a signatory of the Kuala Lumpur declaration to criminalize war


He wrote the article Beating the Drums of War: Provoking Iran into "Firing the First Shot"? available HERE




To hear the interview GO HERE