tomorrow came faster than expected, as if the future were never
somewhere else, but all along part of the fabric of every present,
merely untwining itself again and again into a new distinction that
could never be new again
Mark Z. Danielewski
I doubt there will be a human on Earth by mid-2026. Indeed, I doubt
there will be complex life on this planet by then. It’ll be a small
world, as was the case in the wake of each of the five prior Mass
Extinction events on Earth. Bacteria, fungi, and microbes will
I’ve pointed out repeatedly, humans will lose habitat on Earth
before the last human dies. The final human probably will die after
running out of canned food in a bunker. And he or she will not know
human extinction has occurred.
to the Pentagon’s JASON Group, the situation for life on Earth will
be far worse than I have ever described. A well-informed insider
there wrote on 19 December 2016: “THE JASON GROUP at the Pentagon
is getting new data (upon my constant requests) that the effect of
over 450 reactors melting down will most likely destroy the Ozone
layers. Rather than going Venus Earth will end up more like Mars.
Very dead with almost no chance to regenerate an atmosphere. Report
to be published in 2017.”
first 50-gigatonne burst of methane described by Shakhova et al.
translates to a global temperature rise of 1.3 C, which causes
civilization to collapse because grains cannot be grown at scale.
Industrial civilization, as with its predecessors, requires grain
production and storage. This abrupt rise in temperature would be felt
within a few weeks in the Northern Hemisphere — where nearly all
civilization-supporting grains are grown — and within a year
throughout the world. It would take Earth’s global-average
temperature well beyond the point that has supported humans in the
other words, not long after civilization fails — and certainly by
mid-2026 — the planet will harbor no humans. Not in bunkers. Not in
caves, eating canned peaches. I’ll go well beyond betting my life
on it: I’ll bet human existence.
claim Earth’s climate sensitivity is insufficient to permit a
global-average rise in temperature with such rapidity. They claim the
oceans will buffer the Southern Hemisphere, which has relatively
little land surface. They claim a long lag between a volcano ejection
and the subsequent change in global dimming. In making these claims,
they are ignorant about evidence: climate sensitivity is very high.
Consider the following, minor example: On 14 September 2001, three
days after planes in the United States were grounded because of the
events of 9/11, a
change in global dimming was measured.
that fact for a minute. The global-average temperature of the planet
was altered three days after some planes were grounded. Fossil fuels
were still burned throughout the world. A few contrails were lost.
the extremely unlikely event there is a human on Earth in 10 years,
that person will be hungry, thirsty, lonely, and bathing in ionizing
radiation. Every day will be more tenuous than the day before, as is
already the case for most organisms on this planet. Habitat for human
animals will return in a few million years. Humans will not. Eve.
people are preparing for the collapse of civilization. I used to be
one of them. Now I spend my days living, rather than pursuing dying
more slowly than expected.
not as if I desire near-term
human extinction via abrupt climate change or any other means. I do
know all species go extinct, even the ones we love. And,
unfortunately, I’m capable of connecting the few dots that lead to
Contrary to the vast majority of people I know, I’m not
afraid of the truth, even though it involves my death in the very
to be clear, I did not cause near-term human extinction as a result
of abrupt climate change. It wasn’t even my idea! Nobody accuses
the oncologist of causing cancer. Eve.
doubt my radicalism gives way to wishful thinking. Eve.
doubt my love of life on Earth dissipates. Eve.
diem (seize the day). There aren’t many of them left.
diem (squeeze the day). Make every one matter. Like all of us, the
days are going away faster than expected.