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Arizona and New Mexico, Climate Change and a Mangled Jet Stream Means
Fire Season Now Starts in February
21
February, 2014
It’s
late winter in Arizona and New Mexico. Or at least that’s what the
calendar says. During this time of year, snow packs should grace the
mountain peaks and cool breezes should blow down into the valleys. A
train of west coast moisture should be riding over the mountains of
California, bringing with it the occasional snow or rainstorm.
Not
so this winter. The blocking pattern over the west coast has mostly
held strong — pumping warm, dry air up from the southwest. This
warm flood has resulted in continued severe drought conditions
ranging from Texas through New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada. Most of
California still reels under the worst drought seen in at least a
century. While according to reports from the US Drought Monitor, New
Mexico experienced its driest January on record. And though the 10
month long blocking pattern barring the Pacific moisture flow briefly
fluttered in early February, it has since reasserted itself.
(Drought
Monitor showing 60% of the Western US suffering from some level of
drought. Image source: United
States Drought Monitor.)
The
result, for Arizona and New Mexico, is unprecedented. For all across
these states, weather conditions are pointing toward the beginning of
an entirely different season. Humidity levels are excessively low.
Temperatures are warm or abnormally warm. And abundant dessicated
vegetation covers the hills and valleys. It is a set of conditions
that usually don’t begin to ramp up until May. The season of
burning and of combustive heat — fire season. In February.
0.1
Inches of Rainfall, Brush Fires Encroaching on Cities
One
needn’t look too far to find causes for an early emerging fire
hazard. The region of Tuscon, for example, only received a tenth of
an inch of rainfall throughout the entire month of January.
Throughout February, moisture levels have remained exceptionally low
with relative humidity often ranging into the single digits. The
result is that vegetation which briefly exploded during a period of
abnormally intense rainfall this summer has become withered and
dessicated, providing ample and highly combustible fuel should any
ignition source emerge.
These
are the conditions we should expect as a result of human caused
climate change — very intense precipitation followed by very
intense dryness along with Jet Stream patterns that tend to become
stuck as Arctic sea ice loss and polar amplification in the Arctic
accelerates.
(Smoke
from sporadic brush fires visible over regions of central and
southern Arizona and New Mexico that are now virtually devoid of any
snow pack, even in February. Image source: Lance-Modis/NASA.)
Even
worse, the snow packs for the region, which for years have been
steadily receding under a regime of increasing temperatures, are now
practically non-existent. Snow pack usually aids in the suppression
of ridge and mountain fires until late spring by locking in soil
moisture, adding moisture to dry air, and creating runoff that is a
natural barrier to fires. Not so for 2014 as there is simply no snow
pack to speak of.
In
addition to the 500 acre Isleta New Mexico fire, such dry conditions
have already led to a spate of brush fires that have encroached on
major cities in the region, prompting officials to warn of the, above
mentioned, very early start to fire season. According to reports from
the Arizona
Daily Star:
The
recent warm weather, dry conditions and a spate of brush fires on the
outskirts of major cities of Arizona and New Mexico are prompting
warnings that the 2014 wildfire season is already underway.
The
result is that fire warnings have been raised as tinder-box
conditions of low humidity, temperatures ranging into the upper 70s,
strong winds, and amply abundant fuel persist and intensify. And
given that the fire risk began in February, we can expect a very,
very long fire season ahead.
Winter
Fires Ranged from California to the Arctic in 2014
Unfortunately,
Arizona and New Mexico were not the only regions suffering from
winter fire seasons during early 2014. California, suffering its
worst period of drought in at least 100 years, saw a set of
powerful fires rage through Colby near Los Angeles in January.
Meanwhile, freakish
fires burned near the Arctic Circle in Norway just a week later.
Now Arizona and New Mexico add an initiation of fire season in
February to the unprecedented tally.
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