Weakened But Unbroken
Hamas Can Replenish Arsenal -- If Egypt Lets It
By
Ulrike
Putz in Beirut
20
November, 2012
Hamas
has fired some 1,000 rockets at Israel. Its arsenal includes missiles
made in Iran and China as well as the homemade Qassam rockets. Israel
says it has destroyed most of them. But as long as fresh supplies
keep coming through Egypt, the power of Hamas will be unbroken.
The
arsenal of Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been under constant fire
recently. For six days the Israeli air force -- which claims to be
the best in the world -- has bombed targets in the area until the
ceasefire, which is due take effect on Tuesday night. So it's almost
astonishing that there are any missiles left that can still be fired
at Israel. But in Ashkelon and other Israeli cities near the coastal
strip ruled by the Islamists, the air raid sirens sounded again
earlier on Tuesday.
It
seems that the military power of Hamas has only been weakened, not
broken. Some of their rocket positions appear to be so well concealed
that the Israeli air force hasn't been able to destroy them. The
Israeli government says some 1,000 rockets have been fired from Gaza
since last Wednesday. The air force has said it destroyed several
times more on the ground, but some -- presumably underground --
rocket launchers were still working on Tuesday.
Such
clues are the only way to assess the size of the rocket arsenal of
Hamas, the types of rockets and the quality of the concealment. The
Palestinian radicals boast about their military capabilities and have
in the past given journalists tours of workshops where young men
built Qassam rockets -- but for tactical reasons, Hamas wants to
leave Israel and the rest of the world in the dark about how many
rockets it can fire at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Weapons
From Iran and China
One
can only speculate about the firepower Hamas and other extremists in
Gaza have at their disposal in this unequal battle against Israel.
Israeli sources believe that the arsenal was well-stocked with
domestic and foreign makes at the start of the current conflict.
The
Islamists are believed to have had some 100 Iranian Fajr 5 rockets
and rocket launchers. The Fajr 5 is six-and-a-half to seven meters
long and the warhead weighs over 175 kilos. It has a range of up to
75 kilometers, which puts Tel Aviv and Jerusalem within range.
Several
Chinese WS-1E rockets are believed to have been in its arsenals as
well. They have a range of some 40 kilometers.
Hamas
is also known to have several hundred Grad rockets of various types.
They can be equipped with different warheads and have a range of 20
to 40 kilometers. The Grads too are believed to have come from Iran.
In
addition to the imported weapons, Hamas has thousands of rockets
produced in Gaza. The mortar rounds and primitive Qassam rockets made
with fertilizer and explosives smuggled into Gaza have a range of
just 10 to 15 kilometers. Iranian engineers are believed to have been
advising the weapons builders for some time, and better models with
bigger ranges are being built.
The
ample weapons stocks were thanks to one man: Hamas military chief
Ahmed Jabari. His killing in an Israeli missile strike last Wednesday
triggered the current conflict. Jabari knew how to exploit the
changed political situation in the Middle East. After the Muslim
Brotherhood, the mother organization of Hamas, came to power in the
Arab Spring, the path was clear for the delivery of heavy weapons to
Gaza.
Observers
say the Fajr 5 has been smuggled to Gaza in the last 18 months, flown
from Iran to Sudan and driven by trucks through the Egyptian desert
to the border with Gaza. It seems inconceivable that this happened
without the knowledge and tacit approval of Egyptian officials. The
launchers are more than 10 meters long and the weapons system weighs
1.5 tons. Once they had arrived at the border, the rockets and
launchers are believed to have been dismantled and brought to Gaza
through tunnels. There are also reports that weapons from plundered
arsenals of former Libyan dictator Muammar Ghadafi found their way
into the Gaza strip.
Israeli
Strikes Against Arms Smuggling
Israel
had tried to put a stop to the arms build-up before its current
campaign. At the end of October, there was mystery air raid on a
weapons factory in Sudan that is believed to have been carried out by
Israel. Before that in April 2011, an air raid killed a Palestinian
man in Sudan. He is reported to have been the successor of the
weapons procurer of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, who was killed by
Mossad in Dubai in early 2010.
In
March 2011, Israel is also reported to have attacked a weapons convoy
in Sudan. In addition, the Israeli air force has mounted repeated
bombing raids against tunnels used to smuggle goods and weapons into
Gaza. Rocket launch sites have also been repeatedly attacked in
recent months. But Israel's attacks have also targeted the men who
procure and fire the rockets. Jabari was the most prominent weapons
specialist of Hamas. But in the months before, Israel had killed
dozens of men who it suspected of belonging to the rocket militia.
There
is no doubt that the military capabilities of Hamas have been
severely curtailed. But the attacks haven't broken the organization's
power. As long as the supply route Iran-Sudan-Egypt remains intact,
the Islamists' arsenals will soon be replenished.
But
it will be hard to persuade Cairo to put a stop to the weapons
smuggling through its territory. It will take long, extensive
negotiations. The Palestinians and Egypt will demand that Israel and
the United States make
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