QE3 announced

No doubt there will be lots of commentary over the next days of Bernanke's QE-3 'to infinity'. Take a policy that has never worked and keep applying it until it does. It looks as if it will be all down-hill from here.

Federal Reserve announces QE3

The Federal Reserve announced Thursday that they will spent $40 billion a month on bond purchases in an effort to kick-start the US economy, the Associated Press reports.

RT,

26 April, 2012

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to make a public address later today to discuss the results of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but in the FOMC confirms that it will keep interest rates "exceptionally low" at least through mid-2015, AP confirms, with the Fed failing to reveal and an end date to the effort at this time.

"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability," the Fed reports in a Thursday afternoon statement. The decision to issue the announcement was approved on an 11-1 vote.

Economists had predicted that the central bank would unveil plans for a third-round of a quantitative easing, or QE3, but the Fed has only hinted at plans for a bond purchasing program until now.

Last week, Goldman Sachs said, “With today’s August employment report showing a nonfarm payroll gain of 96,000 and an unemployment rate of 8.1% because of a drop in the participation rate, we expect a return to unsterilized and probably open-ended asset purchases at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting.”

Some critics, including noted investor Jim Rogers, have attested that previous rounds of quantitative easing did little to aid the faltering economy, and that a third attempt may be met with the same respojnse.

"QE1 failed, QE2 failed, so I'm not so sure they would announce QE3, because they'll look like fools again," Rogers told Yahoo this week.

Less than one month ago, Bernanke warned that QE3 was becoming more and more likely, saying, “Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.”

The One Big Problem With QE To Infinity

Zero Hedge,

13 September, 2012

There is one big problem with the Fed's announcement of Open-Ended QE moments ago: it effectively removes all future suspense from FOMC announcements. 

Why? Because the Fed has as of this moment exposed its cards for all to see from here until the moment it has to start tightening the money supply (which may or may not happen; frankly we don't think the Fed tightens until hyperinflation sets in at which point what the Fed does is meaningless). It means easing is now effectively priced into infinity. 

Now rewind back to that one certain paper by the New York Fed, which laid it out clear for all to see, that if it wasn't for the expectation of easing in the 24 hour period ahead of the FOMC meeting, the market would be 50% or lower than where it is now, and would have been effectively in negative territory in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse. 

What Bernanke did is take away this key drive to stock upside over the past 18 years, because going forward there is no surprise factor to any and all future FOMC decisions, as easing the default assumption. It also means that Bernanke may have well fired his last bullet, and it, sadly, is all downhill from here, as soaring input costs crush margins, regardless of what revenues do, and send corporate cash flow to zero. 

Unfortunately, not even in the New Normal can companies operate without cash flow.

This is the chart.

Than you Fed for telling us what comes next.

Shares are up naturally, but gold has also spoken

 

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