Rapidly melting Arctic permafrost poses the greatest threat to major Russian energy producers’ infrastructure and financial indicators, according to a new Morgan Stanley report obtained by the Vedomosti business daily.
Gazprom, Novatek, Alrosa and Norilsk Nickel — whose fuel tank leaked after sinking into thawing permafrost in May, resulting in a major environmental disaster — stand to lose the most from the phenomenon that releases carbon gases and further fuels global warming.
“Climate change in permafrost areas, which account for about 60% of Russian territory, leads to the release of large amounts of methane and carbon dioxide, reduces soil stability and creates risks for infrastructure,” Vedomosti quoted Morgan Stanley as saying Thursday.
The investment banking company noted that average temperatures in Russia have risen at 2.5 times the global rate since 1960 while Arctic temperatures have risen at 3-4 times the global rate since 2000. This heat reduces the bearing capacity of structural foundations in key hydrocarbon production regions by 25-75% compared to 1965.
Around 90% of Russia’s gas and diamonds, 30% of its oil and all of its palladium reserves are produced in areas covered by a thick layer of permafrost.
This means that these companies could feel the impact of climate change in the near future, according to Morgan Stanley’s analytical report.
Gazprom’s forecasted free cash flow for 2022, for example, risks being cut from $8.4 billion to $4 billion, while Nornickel’s predicted 2022 dividends could halve to $1.1 billion.
Things are falling apart rapidly. At times like this one gets contradictory reporting and considerable confusion. I think that I can safely disregard most of the mainstream narrative of Syria, Russiagate, Ukrainegate but it is very difficult to get to the essence of what is true.
There is little actual evidence of what is being talked about here, so it is not possible to say how much stands up to scrutiny in times of “the Fog of War”.
In this case Hal Turner's story is, at the very least replicated quite independently.
Listen to what Hal Turner has to say along with the audio which I have extracted from something that appeared on Twitter yesterday.
Finally, there is this audio which parallels much of what Turner is saying.
Here are some of the relevant stories as covered by the Hal Turner show. Everything, of course, needs to double checked with other sources.
BREAKING
NEWS: ISRAEL CLOSING ALL OF ITS EMBASSIES WORLDWIDE IMMEDIATELY
The
state of Israel is CLOSING all of its foreign Embassies, worldwide,
effective immediately. No consular services will be available and no
persons will be permitted entry until further notice.
Ambassador
Joel Lion, the Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine, says this is due to a
Ministry of Finance decision, but history suggests something
different: Something HUUUUUUUUGGGGGGEEEEE is about to take place.
It
is almost unheard of that any country, even with financial
authorizations lagging, closes its Embassies. It just isn't done.
Yet Israel is doing so.
Is
this part and parcel of the ALLEGED nuclear "false flag"
said to be in the works against Seattle, WA and Los Angeles, CA for
this Sunday, November 3? Unknown.
Does
this have something to do with Diplomatic Cables uncovered in the
lair of ISIS Leader Al-Baghdadi? Diplomatic cables between Baghdadi
and the US State Department were seized by US Special Operations
Forces during the raid that killed Baghdadi over the weekend. If
Cables were found to the US State Department, were any others found
to and from Israel?????
One
off-the-wall claim are those rumors that Israel had a nuke stored in
strategic embassy basements around the world as a blackmail option.
Will those nukes be detonated? Unknown.
This
is very unusual and very disturbing. Clearly something very big is
up. Endeavoring to find out what it is.
UPDATE
11:03 PM EDT --
Just
a reminder.
We
have two Aircraft Carries operational, one in Asia (based out of
Japan) and one in the Arabian Sea. NOT A SINGLE OTHER US CARRIER can
put to sea at the moment. 11 carriers and only two are capable of
deploying at the present time.
COVERT
INTEL: U.S. SPECIAL OPS FORCES FOUND INCREDIBLE EVIDENCE DURING
AL-BAGHDADI KILL-RAID
United
States troops participating in the operation to capture or kill ISIS
founder and Leader Abu-Bakr Al-Baghdadi, came across -- and seized --
incredible materials during the raid.
Included
in the items seized are CABLES to and from Al-Baghdadi and . . . the
U.S. State Department!
The
Cables provide first-hand, INCRIMINATING evidence of the Obama regime
providing material support to the ISIS terror group.
More
importantly, the cables contain names of senders and recipients . . .
Attorney
General Barr, US Attorney John Durham, and other law enforcement
officials are going over the CABLES . . .
Charges
under consideration: Material Support of Terrorism. Conspiracy.
Facilitation of murder . . . .
TURKISH
ARMY HITS RUSSIAN CONVOY WITH ARTILLERY IN SYRIA
The
Turkish Army has fired artillery at a Russian military police convoy
in Syria. At least one vehicle was hit near Dirbesiye, Syria.
Video below . . .
This
is the SECOND attack by Turkey upon forces they should NOT be
attacking, today! First they attacked and killed six soldiers from
the Syrian Arab Army, now they've hit Russians.
Benghazi
"Stand-Down" Order was to Cover-up ILLEGAL WEAPONS DEALS
done by U.S. State Dept.
The DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency) is 1 of 16 US military intelligence agencies. According to a leaked document obtained by Judicial Watch, the DIA wrote on August 12, 2012 that:
“there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist Principality in eastern Syria (Hasaka and Der Zor), and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime …”
This was written before ISIS came on to the world stage. Clearly ISIS was no random uprising, but rather a carefully groomed and orchestrated controlled opposition group.
The “supporting powers to the opposition” referred to are Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the GCC nations such as Qatar, who are in turn being supported by the US-UK-Israeli axis in their struggle to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. As outlined in this article Syrian Ground War About to Begin? WW3 Inches Closer, the US is backing the Sunni nations while Russia, China and Iran are backing the Shia nations, so there is the definite potential for this to erupt into World War 3. Below are screenshots of the actual DIA document:
US Senator John McCain visited the Free Syrian Army. In circle is the ISIS Leader Baghdadi
ISIS is a US-Israeli Creation: Indication 2: ISIS Leader Baghdadi a Mossad Agent
Although this indication is hard to confirm, there were reports apparently originating from Edward Snowden that the leader of ISIS (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) was actually an Israeli Mossad agent by the name of Simon Elliot or Elliot Shimon: [Editor’s note: this source and quotation are yet to be fully verified, including the source originating from Edward Snowden]
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, so-called “Caliph,” the head of ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) is, according to sources reputed to originate from Edward Snowden, an actor named Elliot Shimon, a Mossad trained operative.
Simon Elliot (Elliot Shimon) aka Al-Baghdadi was born of two Jewish parents and is a Mossad agent.
We offer below three translations that want to assert that the Caliph Al-Baghdadi is a full Mossad agent and that he was born Jewish father and mother:
The real name of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is “Simon Elliott.”
The so-called “Elliot” was recruited by the Israeli Mossad and was trained in espionage and psychological warfare against Arab and Islamic societies.
This information was attributed to Edward Snowden and published by newspapers and other Web sites: the head of the “Islamic State” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has cooperated with the U.S. Secret Service, British and Israel to create an organization capable of attracting terrorist extremists from around the world.
Source: Radio ajyal.com
Another source corroborates this statement, the site Egy-press:
With photo support, a Iranian media discovers the true identity of the Emir Daash, a trained Zionist agent.
Iranian intelligence discovered the true and full identity of the Emir Daash, which is known under the name Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi; his real name is Elliot Shimon. Its role in Mossad secret agent in the Zionist espionage. His false name: Ibrahim ibn Awad ibn Ibrahim Al Al Badri Arradoui Hoseini.
The plan: get into the military and civilian heart of the countries that are declared as a threat to Israel in order to destroy to facilitate thereafter, the takeover by the Zionist state on the entire
This is what is being said - for the market, I suspect.
Saudi
Arabia’s energy minister said that its oil supplies had resumed and
that its oil market would be “fully back online” by the end of
September following attacks which Washington blames on Iran while
Riyadh is still probing.
Minister
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the media that oil production in
October would reach 9.89 million barrels per day and 12 million bpd
by the end of November.
"We
are asking the world to help us to help secure oil," he said,
adding that Riyadh expect no decline in oil exports and "no oil
cargoes were canceled."
He
also said Riyadh did not yet know who was responsible for the
attacks, though Washington has pointed the finger at Tehran.
Iran
has denied involvement in the attacks and Houthi rebels in Yemen have
taken responsibility, warning that more could be forthcoming.
Accidents
like the drone attack on the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia don't
contribute to the stability of the energy market, Vladimir Putin's
press secretary told the newspaper Vedomosti.
According
to Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president is aware of the attacks, but
Riyadh didn't turn to our country for help.
Meanwhile,
Saudi Arabia may need several weeks to restore oil supplies, Reuters
reported, citing its sources.
Uncle
Sam’s Missiles Fail Saudi Arabia, Patriot System Not Designed To
Tackle Drones (VIDEO)
WASHINGTON/RIYADH
– The “sole” superpower’s entire global strategy has just
been sent to the dustbin of history. And it was done in the most
trivial way possible. Relatively simple ultra-low-speed drones
soundly defeated America’s premier air defense system. Billions of
dollars Saudi Arabia spent on US air defense systems have been turned
into a heap of worthless scrap metal. And it was done by people who
have been bombed and starved to death in the last half a decade.
Saudi Arabia, with its $82.9 billion military budget, surpassed only
by that of US and China, and ahead of such giants like Russia and
India, has been getting pounded by Houthis.
Of
course, Iran was the first to be blamed for the attack. The Russian
MFA urged Saudis and Americans not to make premature conclusions
without a thorough investigation, not to hold anyone responsible in
advance, and especially not to use any “adverse news” from the
Middle East to put pressure on Tehran. Presidential Press Secretary
Dmitry Peskov shares this point of view. At the same time, there’s
fresh news from American media referring to some sources in the
Pentagon. They say that the lack of facts didn’t prevent the U.S.
from planning a full-fledged military operation against the Islamic
republic
It is well-nigh impossible on Google to find ANYTHING on Venezuela, giving any context.
All you can find are articles that say Venezuela's problems stem from mismanagement and "scoialism".
No country can survive when it has to deal with low oil prices within a context of Peak Oil and economic sanctions combined with attempts to undermine the government.
To get any true context you have to seek out articles from Peak Oil sites.
Impact of oil production decline and low oil prices: Venezuela
This is part 1 of articles on how Venezuela is hit by both declining oil production and the drop in oil prices since 2014. We start with:
Oil production
Please note that the data used in this article differ from source to source. Venezuelan government reports (PDVSA) will be on the high side. No effort was made to reconcile the numbers so every graph stands on its own.
Fig 1: Double peak: drop in oil production since 2005. (PDVSA strike 2002/03)
With 1,000s of leaking, abandoned wells and corroding pipes in the lake, it is now an environmental disaster zone plagued by oil spills, subsiding coast lines and duck weed infestations (from sewage, fertilizers, industrial waste, chemicals).
Fig 5: Maracaibo conventional production is in long term decline
Other areas
The 2nd peak in Fig 2 (1998-2008) was created by production from Venezuela’s eastern oil fields including the Orinoco extra heavy oil belt as shown in the next graph:
Fig 6: Venezuela’s oil production by basin 1996-2015 (PDVSA)
Production by type of oil
The following table shows the different types of crude oil, their gravity and sulfur content. The lower the API number, the heavier the oil.
We see Brent slightly under 40 degrees API with no sulphur, while BCF-17 from Venezuela’s Bachaquero field has only 16.5 degrees and a sulphur content of 2.5%
Heavy and extra heavy oil production started to increase from around 1990. Zooming into more detail:
Fig 10: Venezuela oil production by gravity (API< 10 heavier than water)
Orinoco heavy oil belt
Fig 11: Oil blocks and companies in the Orinoco belt (2009) http://venezuelagas.net/documents/infogas17.pdf
P and XP oil needs diluents (condensate, light oil, kerosene or naphtha) to be pumped in pipelines (diluted crude oil – DCO). For example, 0.6 barrels of 8.5º API extra-heavy crude can be blended with 0.4 barrels of 30º API Mesa crude, resulting in a blend known as 16º API Merey – still a heavy oil.
Diluted crude oil is either exported directly or as upgraded crude oil. There is a huge refinery complex at El Jose, 30 km west of the city of Barcelona.
Fig 15: Upgrader refineries and tank farms in El Jose
The upgrading of extra heavy oil creates big mountains of petroleum coke as can be seen on the above google image
OPEC
announcement of oil production cut causes oil prices to surge as
Saudi Arabia reverses course and agrees to first production cut since
the oil price crash in the summer of 2014.
After
intense negotiations which have been underway for the entire year,
OPEC has finally announced a decision to cut by 1.2 million barrels a
day (roughly 4.5% of current production).
The
biggest production cut is to be carried out by Saudi Arabia, which
has agreed to cut its production by 486,000 barrels per day. In
addition, Iraq will cut production by 209,000 barrels per day, and
Kuwait by 130,000 barrels per day.
One
major producer, Indonesia, has refused to cut its production, and is
suspending its OPEC membership. Another oil producer,
Iran, is being allowed to increase its production to 200,000 barrels
per day from the current 3.7 million.
Non-OPEC
producers are expected to cut their production by 600,000 barrels per
day, the biggest cut being by Russia, which is to cut its production
by 300,000 barrels per day.
The
production cut agreement is to last for 6 months.
The
oil price has immediately recovered on the news, with oil prices
surging by 8% to over $50 a barrel.
This
agreement represents a reverse by both Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Both
of these two major oil producers refused to cut production in
response to the oil price crash in 2014. Both have since
been producing oil at record levels, in the case of Russia 11.2
million barrels per day in October (a post-Soviet record) whilst
Saudi production hit record levels in July at 10.67 million barrels a
day.
Officially
Saudi policy until the start of this year was to allow the oil price
to rebalance naturally. What caused the policy to change?
As
I previously
discussed in
September, the first proposal for a production cut actually came at
the start of the year from the Venezuelan Oil Minister, who toured
the major oil exporting states to lobby for one. Protracted
discussions for an oil production freeze then followed, only to be
held up by bitter disputes between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Iran
insisting on increasing its production after returning to the oil
market at the start of this year following the easing of sanctions.
The
latest agreement however goes beyond a production freeze, as was
discussed as recently as September, and envisages an actual
production cut.
The
explanation for the Saudi reversal is undoubtedly the growing strains
on Saudi Arabia’s budget caused by the oil price remaining lower
for longer than the Saudis expected. Almost certainly the
Saudis were also spooked by the brief collapse of the oil price to
$25 a barrel at the start of the year, which led to concerns that the
oil price might fall through the floor.
Though
Saudi Arabia has great capacity to borrow money on the capital
markets, its fixed exchange rate means that because of the oil price
fall its budget deficit has yawned to astronomic levels, and forcing
the Saudis to undertake politically sensitive budget cuts to maintain
the confidence of the international financial community. These
budget cuts have however been causing serious
problems,
and it seems that the Saudis have grudgingly accepted that they
simply cannot afford to continue with their present course.
As
for the Russians, with their oil production at a record high and
their budget under control, they probably reckon that they have
called the Saudis’ bluff and can afford what is for them a minor
production cut.
It
remains to be seen whether the oil price cut will be sufficient to
rebalance the oil market. Most commentators suspect not,
but with the Saudis now reversing course and cutting production it is
not impossible that if oil prices fall back more production cuts will
follow.
Posts
Fig 15: Upgrader refineries and tank farms in El Jose
