New Zealand's NIWA says 2020 winter was the warmest on record

New Zealand's NIWA says 2020 winter was the warmest on record - was it?

These are the headlines from the Guardian announcing that this year saw the “warmest winter on record”

I kept a record of winter temperatures where I live over July, the coldest month. What was revealed was that temperatures in the middle of the night were as high as 17C and that the differences between nighttime and daytime temperatures were minimal.

This has not happened this year.

Meanwhile, the Tasman Sea had an unprecedented hot blob for three seasons

But by winter, 2020 this has largely dissipated

This story might go some way to explaining how NIWA got it so wrong. In my mind, Jim Salinger is one of the most credible climate scientists in the country

Getting past the BS: New Zealand just saw its warmest July

I have been measuring the temperatures for over a month now and have found that temperatures are WAY above the “average”.

Warm night time temperatures, no frosts and disappearing snow on the mountains

I fully expect NIWA to distort the situation (ie. LIE) when they report.

"Niwa is shortly due to release the official statistics for July, which its meteorologist Ben Noll last week said was on track to finish somewhere in the top five."

Jim Salinger reveals the true situation.

"Our hottest summer (2017-18), our second hottest year (2018), our hottest month (January 2018) and two marine heatwaves – one which would likely be considered freakish even amid anticipated 2050 conditions."

Climate scientist: It's cold now, but NZ region just saw its warmest July

NZ Herald,

4 August,2019

A climate scientist says last month was New Zealand's warmest July on the books, going by a measure that took in more than the official number of stations.

Niwa is shortly due to release the official statistics for July, which its meteorologist Ben Noll last week said was on track to finish somewhere in the top five.

New Zealand's warmest July ever recorded, at 1.8C above average, came in 1998 – just as that year's devastating El Nino climate system was dissipating.

Toward the end of last month, the official July temperature record was tracking at about 1.5C above average.

Niwa used the benchmark, long-running seven station series – but Professor Jim Salinger, who helped create that programme, has looked at the picture using 22 land stations.

By that wider measure, July's land temperatures had finished up a record 1.79C above average, while the Tasman Sea had come in at 0.72C.

Using the 22 stations measure, the July 1998 measurement comes in at second at 1.74C above average.

Salinger put much of it down to a Southern Annular Mode (SAM) - effectively a ring of climate variability that encircled the South Pole and extended out to the latitudes of New Zealand - in the positive phase.

In its positive phase, the SAM was associated with relatively light winds and more settled weather over New Zealand latitudes, together with enhanced westerly winds over the southern oceans.

Salinger also singled out warmer sea surfaces, the absence of any strong El Nino or La Nina influence, and a background of global warming.

Worldwide, some agencies were reporting July as the hottest month ever recorded, matching or even beating the previous record-holder, July 2016.

New Zealand's warm July, which has given way to a series of icy blasts more characteristic of winter, also marked the 30th straight month of above-average temperatures.

The 30-month run, in which each month had finished above respective mean temperatures for the 1981-2010 period, included some of the most dramatic climate events ever observed in New Zealand.

Among them: our hottest summer (2017-18), our second hottest year (2018), our hottest month (January 2018) and two marine heatwaves – one which would likely be considered freakish even amid anticipated 2050 conditions.

The combined effect could be seen in the Southern Alps' snow-starved glaciers, which one scientist recently described as "sad and dirty" after another major melt.

Top NZ scientists on the effects of the heatwave

If I had to unpack this I'd summarise it thus: "this heatwave is damaging, far beyond anything we might have imagined but don't worry – it will get a little hotter in the next 80 years.

James Renwick was the one who attacked Guy McPherson and said polar ice melt in the  Arctic was in a different part of the world (so presumably, according to him, doesn't matter)

What the heatwave is actually doing to New Zealand

Newshub,

30 January, 2019 

Jim Salinger and James Renwick for The Conversation

As the Australian heatwave spills across the Tasman pushing up temperatures in New Zealand, we take a look at the conditions that caused a similar event last year and the impacts it had.

Last summer's heatwave gave New Zealand its warmest summer and the warmest January on record.

It covered an area of four million square kilometres (comparable to the Indian subcontinent), including the land, the eastern Tasman Sea and the Pacific east of New Zealand to the Chatham Islands.

• New Zealanders make fun of 'lukewarm' heatwave
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• Weather: Scorching hot 30degC+ temperatures to hit parts of NZ

In our research, we looked at what happened and why, and found that the heatwave affected many sectors, leading to early grape harvests and killing farmed fish in parts of the country.

Drivers of warmer than average conditions

 

We used a combination of land and ocean temperature observations, large-scale analyses of the atmospheric circulation, and ocean modelling to understand the drivers of the 2017/18 summer heatwave.

It was memorable for a number of extreme events and statistics.

The average air temperature was 2.2degC above the 1981-2010 normal of 16.7degC, and it was the warmest summer ever recorded in more than 150 years.

The number of extreme warm days and warm nights was also the highest recorded, going back several decades.

The peak month was January 2018, 3.2degC above normal and the warmest month recorded in observations as far back as 1867.

Ocean surface temperatures were similarly extreme, with a marine heatwave that lasted about five months, at 2.0degC above normal at its peak.

The warming was mostly the result of very settled conditions over the country, especially to the east, bringing light winds, plenty of sun, and warm air from the subtropics.

Such conditions in summer are associated with the positive phase of a polar ring of climate variability known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which brings high pressures (anticyclones) to New Zealand and parts of other southern hemisphere countries in the mid-latitudes, including southern Australia and Tasmania, southern Chile and Argentina.

The SAM was strongly positive throughout last summer, especially in January, and weak La Niña conditions were prevalent in the tropics.

The light winds in the New Zealand region allowed the ocean surface to warm rapidly, without the usual turbulent mixing to transport the heat away.

The warmest waters in the Tasman Sea formed an unusually thin layer near the surface.

Impacts and repercussions

 

New Zealand was affected by more than its normal share of ex-tropical cyclones, notably Fehi and Gita.

They brought strong winds, storm surges and heavy rainfalls that caused flooding as they passed through.

The warm ocean waters around New Zealand would have helped maintain the intensity of the storms and supply moisture to drive the heavy downpours.

The warm conditions caused massive ice loss in South Island glaciers, estimated to be the largest annual loss of glacier ice in nearly 60 years of records for the Southern Alps.

Satellite data from end-of-summer snowline measurements at the Tasman Glacier suggest that the Southern Alps lost 9 percent of glacier ice during last summer alone.

Warm air temperatures had a marked effect on managed and natural ecosystems. The Marlborough grape harvest was unusually early in 2018, two to three weeks ahead of the normal maturation time. Marine ecosystems were significantly disrupted.

Coastal kelp forests struggled to grow in the warm sea. In southern New Zealand, the temperature threshold was breached three times, resulting in substantial losses of kelp canopies.

For the first time, Atlantic salmon had to be imported as farmed fish died in salmon farms in the Marlborough Sounds.

Commercial fishers reported that snapper was spawning approximately six weeks early off the South Island coast, and Queensland groper was reported in northern New Zealand, 3000km out of range.

Past and future

 

The summer of 2017/18 shared some characteristics with another hot summer, way back in 1934/35. That season was so warm that it prompted a special report by the New Zealand Meteorological Service.

Conditions were similar: persistent high-pressure systems in the New Zealand region, positive SAM conditions, light winds over and around New Zealand, warm ocean surface and air temperatures.

While those two summers shared some natural variations in the local climate, the recent summer was warmer for two reasons.

First, climate in the region is now more than half a degree warmer now than in the 1930s.

Second, the SAM has been trending towards its positive phase over the last few decades, making settled conditions over New Zealand more frequent now than in the 1930s.

That trend is mostly related to the ozone hole that occurs in spring and early summer, cooling the polar atmosphere and driving the strongest winds farther south towards Antarctica, leaving lighter winds and higher pressures over New Zealand.

Looking to the future, we can compare the conditions experienced in 2017/18 with what climate models predict for the future.

We estimate that the extreme warm conditions of New Zealand's last summer would be typical summer conditions by the end of the century, for an emissions scenario associated with a couple of degrees of global warming above pre-industrial temperatures.

If emissions keep increasing as they have done in recent years, last summer will seem cool by the standards of 2100.

A discussion with Guy McPherson on James Renwick

Jim Salinger interviewed

A review of an interview with NZ climate scientists

I would like to be diplomatic and respectful but listening to our climate change spokespeople interviewed yesterday I am unable to restrain myself

"For the globe as a whole that’s less of an issue."

Have New Zealand’s climate academics been asleep?
Seemorerocks

My first response to seeing a full half-hour on Waatea TV devoted to 400 ppm of CO2 and climate change was that this was something we have been waiting for.

But on listening expectation gave way to disappointment and a distinct feeling that  there is no one in this country left to speak out about the climate emergency except for a a small handful of intrepid bloggers and activists.

Yesterday's effort was designed to lure us back to sleep.

Don't worry, little hobbits!

Despite the valiant attempts of Martyn “Bomber” Bradbury to bring things back to reality it would be the grossest understatement to say that every single one of his guests failed miserably to use the opportunity given them to speak out about the climate emergency.

I would give each of them (with the honourable exception of Mr. Bradbury) grades of between 'C-minus' and E.

Firstly Jim Salinger.

For all his great achievements, Jim Salinger sounds as though he is stuck in 2007 and delivering basically the same, slightly—modifed message.

He seemed singly unable to come out and say clearly that scientists in this country are being muzzled and that it is this government that is reponsible.

But what really made me wake up from my torpor was when I heard him say there has been a "1 degree Celsius temperature increase in about the last one hundred years".

One degree?

There's lots of fudging of the figures but even the most conservative media reports are saying that temperatures have gone up at least 1.3 degrees since the pre-industrial age.

Don’t take my word for it. Listen to this. This is the sort of context that's asked for.

Kevin Trenberth on the 2015 Temperature Record

We have experienced 20% of all anthropogenic global warming in the last year.

That by definition is runaway Global Warming.

If Industrial Civilisation survives until November 2016 Professor Guy McPherson and I will tour NZ discussing the environmental and geo-political implications of this unfolding disaster nation wide, stand by for details on the blog and look out for a Facebook ” Event”.

https://kevinhester.live/2016/06/04/kevin-trenberth-on-the-2015-temperature-record/

What is it that is stopping Jim Salinger from acknowledging this and singing from the rooftop about this alarming fact.

Why downplay it?

****

After listening to Mike Smith, an esteemed activist, saying that people are “worried”, we have to “get our head around major problems”, “anticipate and prepare” 

And then there was Megan Woods MP - Labour Party spokesperson on Climate Change whom I could not bear to listen to (she’s the one with the ‘E’ grade) 

And now we come to the other expert, Professor James Renwick.

This was the segment that caught my attention.

After agreeing, in response to a strongly-worded question, Prof, Renwick agreed, yes we do have a problem in the Arctic but - wait for it “in the Arctic it is getting into a runaway situation” but for the globe as a whole that’s less of an issue”

Did I hear that right?!

"For the globe as a whole that’s less of an issue."

And then he goes on to say that we might see a lot of warming 10-12 degrees

(“something crazy like that”) - it might be catastrophic for humanity – but it wouldn’t just keep getting hotter, like on Venus.

Great news folks!

But the climate could change enough so that food and water availability “would go out the window”...that would be a bad thing for humanity”

Well,Professor, I suppose it would.

Here's the discussion:

From yesterday as well - the professor is among those in this country who are "puzzled" by the record autumn tnmperatures.

Apparently we need more research to reinvent the wheel.

"Exactly why that's happened is subject to ongoing research. We have yet to work out what is going on there."

I can think of quite a few people who are not "climate scientists" and not only more erudite than esteemed professor., but more informed as well

To whit:



It does make me wonder how they award professorships in this country these days.

Here is the discussion which brings to mind,not Monty Python,but NZ's own John Clarke ("Fred Dagg")

In fact there IS an example where someone, the chief forecaster at NIWA demonstrated some urgency (and passion) in getting the message out.

But that was before he was turned into a whimpering public servant by his superiors.

*****

I really do have to finish off my rave with this bit of climate change nonsense straight from RT America.

We still have Thom Hartmann on RT America, I suppose.

Climate change discussed in NZ media!

It’s a red-letter day when climate change even gets a mention on NZ television.

Here it is discussed for a full half-hour on Waatea TV.

Waatea 5th Estate "NZ hits 400ppm – climate denial vs climate reality

Watch as Martyn Bradbury of the Daily Blog discusses Climate Change and the Nz reponse with studio panelist :

Dr Jim Salinger - Climate Scientist, lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize

On the phone –
Dr Megan Woods MP - Labour Party spokesperson on Climate Change,

And on Skype,
Professor Jim Renwick - Author of the Royal Society of NZ climate report, and
Mike Smith - Maori Activist, deep sea oil protester and Environmentalist with Greenpeace

NZ hits 400ppm – climate denial vs climate reality

Martyn Bradbury

theDaily Blog,

8 June, 2016

Check out this climate denial bullshit put out last week by the farcical New Zealand Climate Science Coalition…

Many newspaper articles over the past few years have emphasised the dangers of man-made global warming (aka “climate change”) and warned us that extreme measures are needed to save us from this imminent climatic disaster. Almost without exception, the authors of these articles have assumed that man-made carbon dioxide causes dangerous global warming, rapid sea level rise and more floods, droughts, cyclones and so on.

But what does the evidence tell us?

Regarding world temperatures, historical records from ice cores tell us that it was warmer during the Mediaeval Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period and the Bronze Age. The Mediaeval Warm Period was experienced all over the world including Australia and New Zealand.

…this tripe goes on an on. The NZ Climate Science Coalition is to science what the Taxpayers Union is to Unions they’re both  astro-turf front group for interests who don’t want their interests to be seen.

This crap is being spouted  right as NZ hits 400ppm – the first time in bloody 3million years!

Science milestone not one to celebrate 

The last time the amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere was at a level of 400 parts per million (ppm), sea levels were at least 10 metres higher than they are today.

During the Pliocene period, about three million years ago, when global temperatures were 2C or so above today’s levels, forests grew on what today is a mostly barren island in the Canadian Arctic and savannas and woodlands were spread across what is now North African desert.

It was a wetter, warmer period in the planet’s recent geological history.

And last week, at a windswept point at the bottom of the North Island, the 400ppm milestone was reached in New Zealand for the first time since.

Scientists from the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere (Niwa) had been watching the readings recorded at the Clean Air Monitoring Station at Baring Head closely at it edged toward the symbolic threshold.

It came a year after it was crossed at the Mauna Loa station in Hawaii, which has recorded a 24 per cent rise in carbon dioxide levels since it began gathering data in 1958.

…as a huge storm surge destroys Australia’s coast line, as NZ hits its highest green house gases in 25 years and as dairy intensification robs us of fresh water we are watching an environmental catastrophe unfold in front of our eyes that will have dramatic impacts on our civilisation…

Arctic set for record-breaking melt this summer

The record heat that is baking Alaska is poised to smash a host of climate records in 2016, including the earliest snowmelt date at NOAA’s Barrow Observatory, the northernmost point in the nation.

Staff at the observatory reported snowmelt occurred May 13, the earliest snowmelt date in 73 years of record-keeping, beating the previous mark set in 2002 by a full 10 days.

The early melting follows a record-setting winter that saw temperatures average more than 11 degrees above normal for the 49th State, shattering the previous record set in 2015. At 320 miles north of the Arctic Circle, Barrow is usually one of the last places in the United States to lose snow cover.

And what’s the Government’s reaction to all of this? Denial and funding cut backs in our Conservation Department…

Minister must come clean on conservation funding

Maggie Barry must stop fudging the figures and come clean about Department of Conservation under-funding, the Green Party said today.

Figures compiled by the Parliamentary Library and revealed by the Green Party on Q and A yesterday show that funding for DOC has fallen since National has been in government, adding up to $336 million over eight years.

“Maggie Barry disputes our figures and says that baseline funding has risen $62 million over eight years, but it’s not clear where she’s getting her numbers from. She needs to come clean because she’s not showing the whole picture of DOC funding.

As all the worst case scenarios from the IPCC play out, we need to understand and comprehend that we are beyond the tipping points and are now seeing run away forces take over. Our only possible way forward is a focus on adaptation yet our political system is in denial and our scientists regularly gagged.

When the methane time tomb explodes the pretence will be over. The realities of climate change will over take the political denial and force a radical agenda, because it will become an issue of survival.