A bit of historical perspective on Venezuela

A bit of historical context – see when America tried to mount a coup against Hugo Chavez in 2002.

We've been here before.

THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT BE TELEVISED (2003)

THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT BE TELEVISED DIRECTED AND PHOTOGRAPHED BY KIM BARTLEY AND DONNACHA O'BRIAIN IRELAND, 2003 74 MINUTES IN SPANISH WITH ENGLISH SUBTITLES HUGO CHAVEZ ELECTED PRESIDENT OF VENEZUELA IN 1998, IS A COLORFUL, UNPREDICTABLE FOLK HERO, beloved by his nation's working class and a tough-as-nails, quixotic opponent to the power structure that would see him deposed. Two independent filmmakers were inside the presidential palace on April 11, 2002, when he was forcibly removed from office. They were also present 48 hours later when, remarkably, he returned to power amid cheering aides. Their film records what was probably history's shortest-lived coup d'état. It's a unique document about political muscle and an extraordinary portrait of the man The Wall Street Journal credits with making Venezuela "Washington‚s biggest Latin American headache after the old standby, Cuba."

John Pilger – the War on Democracy (2007)

'The War On Democracy' (2007) was John Pilger's first for cinema. It explores the current and past relationship of Washington with Latin American countries such as Venezuela, Bolivia and Chile.

Using archive footage sourced by Michael Moore's archivist Carl Deal, the film shows how serial US intervention, overt and covert, has toppled a series of legitimate governments in the Latin American region since the 1950s. The democratically elected Chilean government of Salvador Allende, for example, was ousted by a US backed coup in 1973 and replaced by the military dictatorship of General Pinochet. Guatemala, Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador have all been invaded by the United States.

John Pilger interviews several ex-CIA agents who took part in secret campaigns against democratic countries in the region. He investigates the School of the Americas in the US state of Georgia, where Pinochet’s torture squads were trained along with tyrants and death squad leaders in Haiti, El Salvador, Brazil and Argentina.

The film unearths the real story behind the attempted overthrow of Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez in 2002 and how the people of the barrios of Caracas rose up to force his return to power.

It also looks at the wider rise of populist governments across South America lead by indigenous leaders intent on loosening the shackles of Washington and a fairer redistribution of the continent's natural wealth.

John Pilger says: "[The film] is about the struggle of people to free themselves from a modern form of slavery". These people, he says, "describe a world not as American presidents like to see it as useful or expendable, they describe the power of courage and humanity among people with next to nothing. They reclaim noble words like democracy, freedom, liberation, justice, and in doing so they are defending the most basic human rights of all of us in a war being waged against all of us."

'The War On Democracy' was a Youngheart Entertainment, Granada and Michael Watt production. It was released in UK cinemas on 15 June 2007 and broadcast on ITV1, 20 August 2007. Directors: John Pilger and Chris Martin. Producers: Chris Martin and Wayne Young. Editor: Joe Frost. The film was made with the support of the humanitarian financier Michael Watt.

Awards: Best Documentary Award, 2008 One World Awards, London. The panel's citation read: "There are six criteria the judges are asked to use to select the winner of this award: the film's impact on public opinion, its appeal to a wide audience, its inclusion of voices from the developing world, its high journalistic or production standards, its success in conveying the impact of the actions of the world's rich on the lives of the poor and the extent to which it draws attention to possible solutions. One film met every one of these. It was the winner of the award: John Pilger's 'The War on Democracy'."

Read John Pilger's article about the making of 'The War On Democracy' which appeared in the Guardian in June 2007.

Context to current affairs in Venezuela

If you want context to what is happening in Venzuela then don’t go beyond these two documentaries.

I regret now, not having paid more attention to this earlier.

US intervention in Venezuela and Latin America

"The War on Democracy" is a documentary film directed by Australian reporter John Pilger.

The documentary focuses on United States interventions in Latin American political affairs, mainly in Venezuela.

CIA's participations in military coups against Hugo Chavez, Jacobo Arbenz in Guatemala and Salvador Allende in Chile, is demonstrated through the presentation of documents and interviews.

The Revolution Will Not Be Televised - Chavez: Inside the Coup

The context to Venezuela's troubles lies here:

A country that is demonstrably post peak-production (as shown by the Peak Oil sites); low oil prices have affected Venezuela more than any other country; they have had an economic blockade and political interference (read - attempts at regime change) from America and its allies.

Look at Google and ALL you can find are articles from western publications putting all the blame on mismanagement, corruption and "socialism".  

How oil-rich Venezuela ended up with a miserable economy

Venezuela: How the most oil rich nation on earth was brought to the brink of collapse

This is what happens when an economy and a society disintegrates due to economic mismanagement and populist folly

Scholarly articles that give context are nowhere to be seen. I had to look on DuckDuckGo to find the following articles (from Peak Oil sites)

Peak oil in Venezuela: El Furrial oil field

We see the impact of the conventional oil peak in Venezuela. As an example let’s look at the El-Furrial field.

Venezuela peak

Impact of oil production decline and low oil prices: Venezuela

Here is the WSJ:

Venezuela’s Oil Production Is Collapsing

Sharp drop in output increases the odds of a debt default, worsens economic crisis

WSJ,

18 January, 2018

CARACAS, Venezuela—Venezuela’s oil output is collapsing at an accelerating pace, deepening an economic and humanitarian crisis and increasing the chances the country will default on its debts.

Crude production fell 11% in December from the month before, according to government figures released Thursday. Over all of 2017, output was down 29%, among the steepest national declines in recent history, driven by mismanagement and under investment at the state oil company, say industry observers and oilmen.

The drop is deeper than that experienced by Iraq after the 2003 war there—when the amount of crude pumped fell 23%—or by Russia during the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“In Venezuela, there is no war, nor strike,” said Evanán Romero, a former director of government-run Petróleos de Venezuela SA. “What’s left of the oil industry is crumbling on its own.”

Oil is critical to Venezuela’s state-led economy. Petroleum sales bring in 95% of the country’s foreign-currency earnings, so declining output will make it harder for the government to import everything from machinery to food and medicine.

Over the past four years, the country’s economy has shrunk by about 40% and inflation has surged—topping 2,600% last year, according to the National Assembly. Nearly one in four factories didn’t reopen after Christmas, according to a local industry association.

Malnutrition is spreading among the young and elderly, while health officials report a resurgence of illnesses ranging from malaria to diphtheria. Meanwhile social stability is fraying. At least four people have died during outbreaks of looting in recent weeks.

The government is already resorting to barter—seeking to trade diamonds and other valuables—in an effort to bring in sorely needed supplies as President Nicolás Maduro prepares for elections this year.

This week, the state oil company’s new chief, National Guard Gen. Manuel Quevedo, blamed the production downturn on sabotage and terrorist attacks by the opposition. He didn’t offer any evidence. He said output has stabilized and will grow to 2.5 million barrels a day this year.

Most analysts, however, expect Venezuela’s production to continue falling. By this year’s end, output could fall to 1.3 million barrels a day, according to Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan energy expert at Rice University.

“The only discussion right now is how much is it going to decline by. There is no talk of a turnaround,” said Luisa Palacios, analyst at consultancy Medley Global Advisors in New York.

In December, daily production fell by 216,000 barrels to 1.6 million—the 15th consecutive monthly decline. In the last 12 months, Venezuelan output fell by 649,000 barrels a day.

The decline has been exacerbated by a management purge at state-run PdVSA by Mr. Maduro that has paralyzed the oil giant. Seventy senior managers have been jailed on graft allegations in the past three months. Generals with no industry experience have been named to run the firm.

U.S. sanctions have also hurt, scaring off some of the last remaining investors.

A boy, his clothes saturated with oil, sits in a boat at the fishing town of Cabimas. PHOTO: FABIOLA FERRERO FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Multinational firms partnered with PdVSA in southern Venezuela, home to the world’s biggest oil reserves in the Orinoco Oil Belt, have cut spending to a minimum because of overdue bills, red tape and high taxes, say oil industry executives.

“International operators have essentially zero appetite for putting any additional investment dollars into Venezuela under current conditions,” said Pavel Molchanov, oil analyst at brokerage Raymond James.

Venezuela’s large output drop means the country has been the only major oil producer to not benefit from rising crude prices. The value of the Venezuelan oil export basket rose 25% last year on the back of stronger global demand and shrinking inventories.

But this windfall was wiped out by lower output and the rising cost of oil products imported by PdVSA to aid its operations.

Brokerage Torino Capital forecasts that the value of Venezuelan oil exports will fall about three billion dollars this year to $26.5 billion. As recently as 2012 the country earned $93 billion from oil exports.

Roughly 1.3 million barrels a day of Venezuelan oil goes to the country’s domestic market or is pledged in prepaid supply and debt deals with allies Russia, China and Cuba, according to Rice University’s Mr. Monaldi.

That leaves precious little to sell in the open market. Exports to the U.S., Venezuela’s top cash-paying customer, fell 20% in 2017 to 593,000 barrels a day, according to BMI Research.

The larger void in global energy supplies resulting from Venezuela’s faltering production may push oil prices higher and allow other heavy-crude producers like Canada, Iraq and Mexico to seize market share, Medley’s Ms. Palacios said.

Venezuela’s decline is already benefiting its OPEC peers who have been able to raise their own output without breaking the cartel’s production cut agreement. OPEC’s overall production edged higher by 42,000 barrels a day in December from the previous month.

A full-blown default on Venezuelan debts—the country has already been struggling to pay interest and principal on its $60-billion foreign debt—could put more oil sales at risk.

PdVSA and the central government are in default on more than $700 million of bond payments. The state oil company hasn’t made any interest payments for a month, raising fears that creditors could start seizing oil shipments as compensation.

Last week, a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude was detained in the Caribbean island of Curaçao at the request of an unidentified group of investors seeking $30 million in back payments from Venezuela, according to diplomats familiar with the matter.

“If Venezuela’s oil shipments become a target, that would be the worst possible scenario for the country’s oil industry,” said Artyom Tchen, an Oslo-based oil analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy.

Write to Anatoly Kurmanaev at Anatoly.kurmanaev@wsj.com and Kejal Vyas at kejal.vyas@wsj.com

Focus on Venezuela

US Sanctions Cost Venezuela $6B Since August 2017, Sparking Humanitarian Catastrophe

Cutting Caracas out of the international market has already triggered a widespread humanitarian catastrophe causing ordinary Venezuelans to suffer the consequences.

by Randi Nord

Mint Press,

31 October, 2018

CARACAS, VENEZUELA — United States sanctions against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela have cost the Latin American nation $6 billion since August of 2017, leaving the fate of healthcare and access to basic goods in jeopardy for millions of already struggling Venezuelans.

As recently as early October, an anonymous source from the Trump administration told Reuters that “all options are on the table” in regard to even tighter sanctions against the country. This is part of a growing trend, as the Trump administration prepares to strengthen its attacks against socialist or left-leaning nations throughout Latin America.

According to a report from Canadian analyst Joe Emersberger, U.S. sanctions have quite literally starved Venezuelans out of a staggering $6 billion since the latest round took effect in August of 2017, cutting Venezuela off from the global market.

To put this figure into perspective, $6 billion is over 130 times the $46 million requested by the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) for the “Venezuela Situation” in March of this year, which likely wouldn’t be needed if Caracas had financial support to provide for its citizens.

Emersberger points out that prior to this time, Venezuela’s crude oil output followed the same gradual decline as Colombia’s between January of 2016 and August of 2017, as overall oil prices fell. At that point, when the sanctions took effect, Venezuela’s oil production plummeted to record lows, with civilians bearing the brunt of the consequences.

Oil production is Venezuela’s primary source of income and foreign investment. Without funding from state-owned oil enterprises, the government struggles to provide healthcare to its population, with the most vulnerable facing most of the risk: pregnant women, the injured, the elderly, children, and those with chronic illness.

Cutting Venezuela out of the global market to spark an internal crisis

As with other countries such as Iran, Syria, and Iraq, the Venezuelan sanctions move falls into Washington’s general strategy of causing widespread civil turmoil and ultimately collapsing adversarial governments from within by suffocating them out of the global market.

According to the Brookings Institution, over 4 million Venezuelans have fled the country as economic refugees — 10 percent of the population. Meanwhile, the infant mortality rate rose 30 percent in 2016 alone and three-quarters of the country’s adult population has lost an average of 20 lbs.

Although Brookings blames mismanagement and “nothing else,” sanctions and economic war against Venezuela are the real source of deteriorating conditions within the country.

The August 2017 round of sanctions banned the Venezuelan government from accessing U.S. funding. Since Venezuela’s state-owned CITGO is based in Texas, this effectively held the asset hostage. A year later in August of 2018, a United States judge approved the seizure of CITGO entirely.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro blames the United States and its allies in the right-wing opposition for launching an “economic war” against his country and putting political pressure on his government. Between 2009 and 2017, the United States government budgeted $49 million for violent right-wing militias and political opposition groups with the goal of overthrowing Venezuela’s revolutionary government.

The Trump administration also has its eyes on Cuba, particularly in regard to Havana’s support of Venezuela. Speaking to Reuters, an anonymous U.S. official stated that Washington planned to increase economic pressure on Cuba’s intelligence and military sectors. The source noted last week that President Donald Trump’s notorious national security advisor, John Bolton, would soon elaborate on the Cuba question.

At the UN General Assembly last month, Trump pointed the finger of blame at Venezuela’s “Cuban sponsors” for the current crisis.

It’s unclear at this point whether or not Washington will follow through on its promises to heighten sanctions even further against Venezuela’s energy sector and insurance coverage for oil shipments.

Regardless, cutting Caracas out of the international market has already triggered a widespread humanitarian catastrophe causing ordinary Venezuelans to suffer the consequences.

Top Photo | People take boxes of food staples, such as beans, rice, tuna and powdered milk, provided by the government program “CLAP,” which stands for Local Committees of Supply and Production, in Caracas, Venezuela, May 16, 2018. The squeeze of financial sanctions by the Trump administration is choking the cash-starved government as it struggles to feed its people. Ariana Cubillos | AP

Randi Nord is a MintPress News staff writer. She is also co-founder of Geopolitics Alert where she covers U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East with a special focus on Yemen.

Here are two essential documentaries for understanding Venezuela

The first is a documentary "the Revolution will not be televised": a TV film crew captured and chronicled the attempted 2002 coup against Hugo Chavez
 

John Pilger's documentary , "the War on Democracy".   Tthe film shows how serial US intervention, overt and covert, has toppled a series of legitimate governments in the Latin American region since the 1950s. The democratically elected Chilean government of Salvador Allende, for example, was ousted by a US backed coup in 1973 and replaced by the military dictatorship of General Pinochet. Guatemala, Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador have all been invaded by the United States.

The revolution in Venezuela and the war being waged on it by Empire

More and more Venezuela is coming to the fore.

One of my motivations for putting this material together is exemplified by the following video which represents the view of libertarians and the Austrian School of Economics – essentially Zero Hedge – who see this as a failure of socialism and as such, a warning for ‘socialist’ Europe.

They are, it turns out more against 'socialism' than they are against Empire.

Firstly this is not a problem of socialism, and

Secondly, Europe is NOT socialist.

This is a question of imperialism and the ability of nations to determine their own path and the determination of one power, the United States, to undermine in any way available to them any attempts to be independent.

Secondly, it is a reflection of both geopolitics (the attempted economic war beign waged against Russia and the BRICS using oil prices as a weapon) as well as the effects of Peak Oil.

Venezuela’s oil peaked in 1970.

I have put together the material below as a resource so that we are not subject to amnesia (as the corporate mass media would like us to be), to help us understand how we got to where we are today

Focus on Venezuela

The Bolivarian Revolution

To understand Venezuela of the last 15 years and the Bolivarian revolution of Hugo Chavas and the Chavistas we cannot go beyond John Pilger’s brilliant documentary “'The War On Democracy'”

It provides one of the best portrayals for English-speaking audiences of Venezuela under Chavez which places it in the context of America's war against democracy and independence in Latin America.

 

Hugo Chavez attacks George Bush at UN General Assembly

Those were heroic days – when Chavez quoted Noam Chomsky at the UN and called George Bush a “Devil”

  

Chavista Venezuela made offers of cheap oil to poor communities in the Untied States affected by Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy

Venezuela Offers $1M, Oil, Food and Equipment for U.S. Victims of Hurricane Katrina

Meanwhile voices in the United States called for Chavez’s assasination

Chávez taunts US with oil offer

Venezuelan president hits back at assassination remarks with offer of cheap petroleum for poor Americans

25 August, 2005

President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela hit back vigorously at calls by an ally of President George Bush for his assassination by offering cheap petrol to the poor of the US at a time of soaring fuel prices.

In a typically robust response to remarks by the US televangelist Pat Robertson, Mr Chávez compared his detractors to the "rather mad dogs with rabies" from Cervantes' Don Quixote, and unveiled his plans to use Venezuela's energy reserves as a political tool.

"We want to sell gasoline and heating fuel directly to poor communities in the United States," he said.

The Empire strikes back

The first attempt of the Empire to strike back with a spectacularly unsuccessful coup in 2002.

This was caught brilliantly in the documentary “the revolution will not be televised”

A 2002 documentary about the April 2002 Venezuelan coup attempt which briefly deposed Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. A television crew from Ireland's national broadcaster, RTÉ happened to be recording a documentary about Chávez during the events of April 11, 2002. Shifting focus, they followed the events as they occurred. During their filming, the crew recorded images of the events that they say contradict explanations given by Chávez's opposition, the private media, the US State Department, and then White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer. The documentary says that the coup was the result of a conspiracy between various old guard and anti-Chávez factions within Venezuela and the United States

When Hugo Chavez contracted an aggressive form of cancer and subsequently died there have been strong suggestions that this was, in fact, an assasination

The Hugo Chavez Deception Conspiracy Theorist Populist Chavez Murdered

I Personally Believe That Hugo Chávez Was Murdered By The United States - William Blum

Back in December 2011, Chávez, already under treatment for cancer, wondered out loud: “Would it be so strange that they’ve invented the technology to spread cancer and we won’t know about it for 50 years?” The Venezuelan president was speaking one day after Argentina’s leftist president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, announced she had been diagnosed with thyroid cancer. This was after three other prominent leftist Latin America leaders had been diagnosed with cancer: Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff; Paraguay’s Fernando Lugo; and the former Brazilian leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

” Evo take care of yourself. Correa, be careful. We just don’t know,” Chávez said, referring to Bolivia’s president, Evo Morales, and Rafael Correa, the president of Ecuador, both leading leftists.

Chávez said he had received words of warning from Fidel Castro, himself the target of hundreds of failed and often bizarre CIA assassination plots. “Fidel always told me: ‘Chávez take care. These people have developed technology. You are very careless. Take care what you eat, what they give you to eat … a little needle and they inject you with I don’t know what.”

CIA and FBI Had Planned to Assassinate Hugo Chávez

CONTEXTUALISTION

For a superb background into the war being waged against Venezuela (as well as Russia and the BRICS countries I strongly suggest you take the time out to listen to these talks by Eric Draitser of stopimperialism.org

In January - 

And just a few days ago - 

Peak oil

Where I would slightly differ with Eric Draitser is that one cannot understand Venezuela without an understanding of the oil story and, specifically, Peak Oil.

Venezuela has been blighted with a dependence on oil because of its history with American imperialism.

It remains the largest producer of oil in the Hemisphere and is one of the largest producers.

However, the fact is that oil production in Venezuela peaked many years ago so that the oil produced is of lower quality and is more expensive to produce.

OPEC, except for Iran, Has Peaked

29 Facts About The Venezuelan Oil Industry

In 1970, Venezuela Oil Production Reached Its Peak

Image Source: Davekimble

Venezuela’s oil production peaked in 1970, with a production level of 197 million metric tons. A more recent peak happened in 1998, when Venezuela produced 180 million metric tons.....

Yet, Venezuela is still one of top producers in the Americas. It still produces 2.49 million barrels per day. With such output, it is the 5th largest producer in the Americas, behind the United States, Canada, Mexico and Brazil. In the world ranking, it occupies the 12th place.

In 2013, Venezuela’s oil production was 140 million tons.

That makes Venezuela the most vulnerable country in OPEC when it comes to the impact of low oil prices.

Venezuela,more than anyone needs a minumum oil price.

For Venezuela which is dependent on oil for 90+ % of its revenue this is disastrous.

This, taken together with economic and political warfare being waged by the Empire, along with local elites, has caused the current crisis which is very real.

For a fairly typical 'analysis' of why Venezuela is in crisis watch this:

Put simply I do not believe those who say that it is mismanagement or ‘socialism’ that has got Venezuela to where it is today.

When you hear these arguments you will know whose side these people are on – and it is NOT on that of the countries struggling to maintain their independence from the United States and its minions.

US - Venezuela tensions

The struggle to 'reclaim' Venezuela for the US has begun

U.S. expels 2 Venezuelan diplomats

Diplomatic tensions between the United States and Venezuela showed no signs of slowing Monday as the State Department announced that two Venezuelan diplomats had been expelled.

CNN,

11 March, 2013

Orlando Jose Montanez Olivares and Victor Camacaro Mata were declared personae non gratae and ordered to leave the country in response to the South American nation's decision to kick out two U.S. officials last week, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters.

"Around the world, when our people are thrown out unjustly, we're going to take reciprocal action," she said. "We need to do that to protect our own people."

The expulsion of the Venezuelan diplomats comes after Venezuelan officials -- just hours before announcing President Hugo Chavez's death last week -- said they were expelling two U.S. Embassy officials and accused them of plotting to destabilize the country.

"In the day or days that followed there was some pretty heated rhetoric coming in our direction," Nuland said Monday. "I think I called it at one point a page from the old 'Chavista' playbook that we were hoping was going to change. ... There is work that we would like to do together, particularly in the areas of counter-terrorism, counternarcotics, economics and energy relations, but it's going to take a change of tone from Caracas."

The expelled Venezuelan diplomats have left the United States, Nuland said. Camacaro worked in the Venezuelan Consulate in New York, and Montanez worked at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington, she said.

The expelled U.S. officials, both air attaches at the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, were accused of having meetings with members of the Venezuelan military and encouraging them to pursue "destabilizing projects," Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said.

"We will not allow any foreign interference in our country," Jaua said last week.

Nicolas Maduro, then vice president and now Venezuela's interim leader, also suggested as he criticized the U.S. Embassy officials last week that someone had deliberately infected Chavez with cancer.

State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell denied the accusations.

"This fallacious assertion of inappropriate U.S. action leads us to conclude that, unfortunately, the current Venezuelan government is not interested an improved relationship," he said.

It isn't the first time that diplomatic tensions have surged between the two countries

Last year the State Department declared Venezuela's consul general in Miami persona non grata -- Latin for unwelcome or unacceptable person -- and expelled her from the United States. In 2008, Venezuela expelled the U.S. ambassador to the South American country. A day later, the United States said it was expelling the Venezuelan ambassador.