News from the Russian Arctic - -07/07/2020

Ninety firefighters from Western Siberia arrived, 95 more are on the way from Amur and Trans-Baikal regions to help Yakutia fight wildfires. 

A state of emergency was introduced in several areas of Yakutia - also known as the republic of Sakha - with the weather forecast for July predicting extremely hot and dry weather, the cue for even more fires. 

This year wildfires were as far north as the town of Chersky, above the Arctic circle. 

Wildires in the extreme north of Yakutia around the towns of Chersky, Srednekolymsk and Nizhnekolymsk. Pictures: Ministry of Emergency Situations Yakutia

The summer has already broken records with a temperature of 38C (100F) in Verkhoyansk, one of the world's coldest inhabited towns on 17 June.

‘This is by far the one of the worst, if not the worst year we’ve ever had with wildfires’, said Nikita Zimov, director of the Pleistocene Park near the town of Chersky. 

‘There is a fire just 15 km away from our scientific station.

‘It was a thunderstorm and lightning that started the fire. Dry and hot weather combined with wind helped it grow big in no time at all.’ 

230 wildfires rage in Russia’s coldest republic of Yakutia, with state of emergency declared in Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk regions. A highly experienced firefighter, 42-year-old Ruslan Imsyrov died as he was on duty fighting wildfires in the region

South and west from Yakutia state of emergency was introduced in Irkutsk region, with an amphibia BE-200 plane of Russian Ministry of Emergencies deployed to fight the fires. 

A highly experienced firefighter, 42-year-old Ruslan Imsyrov died as he was on duty fighting wildfires in the region. 

His colleagues said that it happened as he was moving from one wildfire to another. Ruslan has been serving Irkutsk Aviation Forest Protection Base since 2002. 

A state of emergency was also introduced in the vast Krasnoyarsk region, where a cloud spiking plane will be used to cause rains. 

More than a hundred wildfires are currently registered in the Krasnoyarsk region, with warnings about extremely difficult situations with wildfires caused by hot and dry weather also coming from Novosibirsk region, Republic of Khakassia and the Far East of Russia. 

https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/eerie-wildfire-phoenix-seen-from-space-50km-south-of-the-arctic-circle/

Topsy-turvy summer swings from Saudi-heat to freezer in Arctic north of Russia’s largest region of Yakutia.

As the pictures show, Verkhoyansk was hit by summer snow, which is not unknown but hardly common. Picture: Aldan Online

Abnormally cold weather has been recorded in the north of Yakutia with residents of Verkhoyansk district waking up to fresh snow on 5 July. 

Just days before that, locals were complaining about the hot and dry beginning of July, with air temperature heating up to +27C on 1 July, and wildfires raging.

Earlier, on 17 June this district saw a world record for the Arctic of 38C.

Abnormally cold weather has been recorded in the north of Yakutia with residents of Verkhoyansk district waking up to fresh snow on 5 July. Pictures: Aldan Online

Wildfires started in several areas of the remote district which is known worldwide for the coldest inhabited town on earth, Verkhoyansk, an honour that another Yakutian settlement Oymyakon also claims.

Verkhoyansk also holds the record for the greatest temperature range on Earth, from -67.8C in winter and - since this June - to the new record of 38C in summer. 

Verkhoyansk district has certainly lived up to its reputation. 

Three days after the 27C reading, the temperature sank to 12C, then 8C, and then below zero.

As the pictures show, Verkhoyansk was hit by summer snow, which is not unknown but hardly common.

The snowflakes was best seen in Batagai, in the same district.

A group of friends shared a video of themselves warmly dressed as they stood around the fire. 

‘Where is our plus 38C?’, they captioned the short video. 

On another video, a resident from the village of Batagai - which was suffocating from wildfire smoke - was happy the air felt fresh after the snow. 

And the forecast? Back to 30C by the weekend.

https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/pole-of-cold-district-that-recently-recorded-desert-like-heat-of-38c-now-sees-snow/

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2248111-arctic-explorers-find-unusually-thin-ice-as-a-result-of-climate-change/

https://www.iflscience.com/environment/we-regret-to-inform-you-that-the-siberian-arctic-is-on-fire-again/?fbclid=IwAR0vAOb8GUtBAzmP_VK0Lwc6dbhxZvpzD0sqPpEoIaZslgCYU-rmo_8_lo8

Intense wildfires are sweeping across the Arctic Circle, surpassing the numbers recorded in June 2019, amid "exceptionally high" temperatures in the Siberian region.

NASA satellite images revealed fires dotted across the landscape and billowing clouds of smoke which scientists say will "catch a ride on the jet stream to other areas of the globe".

An estimated 3.4million acres are burning - an area about half the size of Massachusetts - according to Russia's forest fire agency. Around 1.1m acres were ablaze at the end of June, meaning that the fire zone has tripled in roughly a week.

The number of wildfires has been on the rise since mid-June in the neighbouring regions of the Sakha Republic and Chukotka Autonomous Oblast, along with parts of Alaska and the Yukon Territories.

The fires burn unabated due to the fact that Siberia is largely inaccessible and sparsely populated. The blazes are fuelled by the boreal forest, which wraps around the top of the Northern Hemisphere, peat bogs and tundra, which produce more smoke than trees or grass when they catch fire.

Although Siberian fires have been seasonal, NASA scientists pointed out that the peat fires have the potential to smoulder underground during winter and reappear in the spring, a phenomenon known as "zombie fires".

Boreal forest, peat bogs and tundra all have higher concentrations of carbon which spew carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere when burned.

The fires have led to the highest-estimated emissions since records began 18 years ago, according to the EU's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). In June, an estimated 59 megatonnes of CO2 were released into the atmosphere, an increase from June 2019’s 53 megatonnes.

​CAMS Senior Scientist and wildfire expert, Mark Parrington, said: “What is remarkable with these fires in Siberia is the striking similarity with what we saw over the same period of last year in terms of both the area affected and the scale of the fires. Last year was already by far an unusual, and record, summer for fires in the Arctic Circle in our Global Fire Assimilation System dataset, which goes back to 2003.

"This year has evolved in a very similar way and if it continues to progress like last year, we could see intense activity for the next few weeks.”

Higher carbon emissions cause temperatures to rise and this year, Siberia saw a new temperature record of 100.4F (38C). Historic heatwaves lead to more frequent fires which spread rapidly. This has been coupled with stronger winds which drive wildfires.

The Siberian Arctic is also experiencing record high temperatures for the second year in a row.

The EU observation program, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), reported on Tuesday that average temperatures last month were equivalent to June 2019’s worldwide record, with “exceptionally high” temperatures in Arctic Siberia.

In June, and across the last 12 months, Siberia is the region with the largest temperature anomalies, C3S reported. In the region, average temperatures climbed 10C (50F) above normal for June.

C3S director at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Carlo Buontempo, said that understanding the cause of the record temperatures was a complex task because many contributing factors were at play.

He said: “Siberia and the Arctic Circle in general have large fluctuations from year to year and have experienced other relatively warm Junes before.

“What is worrisome is that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world. Western Siberia experiencing warmer-than-average temperatures so long during the winter and spring is unusual, and the exceptionally high temperatures in Arctic Siberia that have occurred now in June 2020 are equally a cause for concern.”

Climate variability was also noted across Europe where temperatures were far above average in the north but below average in the south. Overall, it was the joint second warmest June recorded in Europe.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/fire-arctic-circle-siberia-record-climate-crisis-temperature-a9605891.html?fbclid=IwAR0SJLL-uF5ER--KzIYo1Zl-n7-MHcvZZtJOVPXCVP2yQrFMvFbhbJwSui4

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/07/07/nature-doesnt-trust-us-arctic-heatwave-stokes-permafrost-thaw/?fbclid=IwAR0IWkM0U09o6WfgWTwjyZ1wIrwcJUABinbZkSJlRl6px_fmiAZw2Z6jXHk

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-29/100-degrees-in-siberia-5-ways-the-extreme-arctic-heat-wave-follows-a-disturbing-pattern/?fbclid=IwAR0ehNoZhR8u52h7ebByrc7FYUZkqNzRlTlPFFQzSQXMMjOlznulGog5-gk

Climate explained: What the 

world was like the last time 

carbon dioxide levels were at 

400ppm

Stuff.co.nz,

8 July, 2020

Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.

What was the climate and sea level like at times in Earth's history when carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was at 400ppm?

The last time global carbon dioxide levels were consistently at or above 400 parts per million (ppm) was around four million years ago during a geological period known as the Pliocene Era (between 5.3 million and 2.6 million years ago). The world was about 3 degrees Celsius warmer and sea levels were higher than today.

We know how much carbon dioxide the atmosphere contained in the past by studying ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. As compacted snow gradually changes to ice, it traps air in bubbles that contain samples of the atmosphere at the time. We can sample ice cores to reconstruct past concentrations of carbon dioxide, but this record only takes us back about a million years.

Beyond a million years, we don't have any direct measurements of the composition of ancient atmospheres, but we can use several methods to estimate past levels of carbon dioxide. One method uses the relationship between plant pores, known as stomata, that regulate gas exchange in and out of the plant. The density of these stomata is related to atmospheric carbon dioxide, and fossil plants are a good indicator of concentrations in the past.

Another technique is to examine sediment cores from the ocean floor. The sediments build up year after year as the bodies and shells of dead plankton and other organisms rain down on the seafloor. We can use isotopes (chemically identical atoms that differ only in atomic weight) of boron taken from the shells of the dead plankton to reconstruct changes in the acidity of seawater. From this we can work out the level of carbon dioxide in the ocean.

The data from four-million-year-old sediments suggest that carbon dioxide was at 400ppm back then.

Sea levels and changes in Antarctica

During colder periods in Earth's history, ice caps and glaciers grow and sea levels drop. In the recent geological past, during the most recent ice age about 20,000 years ago, sea levels were at least 120 metres lower than they are today.

Sea-level changes are calculated from changes in isotopes of oxygen in the shells of marine organisms. For the Pliocene Era, research shows the sea-level change between cooler and warmer periods was around 30-40 metres and sea level was higher than today. Also during the Pliocene, we know the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was significantly smaller and global average temperatures were about 3C warmer than today. Summer temperatures in high northern latitudes were up to 14C warmer.

This may seem like a lot but modern observations show strong polar amplification of warming: a 1C increase at the Equator may raise temperatures at the poles by 6-7C.  It is one of the reasons why Arctic sea ice is disappearing.

Impacts in New Zealand and Australasia

In the Australasian region, there was no Great Barrier Reef, but there may have been smaller reefs along the northeast coast of Australia. For New Zealand, the partial melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is probably the most critical point.

One of the key features of New Zealand's current climate is that Antarctica is cut off from global circulation during the winter because of the big temperature contrast between Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. When it comes back into circulation in springtime, New Zealand gets strong storms. Stormier winters and significantly warmer summers were likely in the mid-Pliocene because of a weaker polar vortex and a warmer Antarctica.

It will take more than a few years or decades of carbon dioxide concentrations at 400ppm to trigger a significant shrinking of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. But recent studies show that West Antarctica is already melting.

Sea-level rise from a partial melting of West Antarctica could easily exceed a metre or more by 2100. In fact, if the whole of the West Antarctic melted it could raise sea levels by about 3.5 metres. Even smaller increases raise the risk of flooding in low-lying cities including Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington.

James Shulmeister is a professor at the University of Canterbury.

This article was originally published on The Conversation.