Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Report from Ukraine - 08/15/2014

Ukraine hosts military drills led by US and joined by NATO


RT,
15 September, 2014


A total of 1,300 troops from 15 nations, either active NATO members or would-be members, have come together for a military exercise in western Ukraine – even as the fragile truce in the east of the country barely holds.



NATO members start supplying weapons to Kiev – Ukrainian Defense Minister


The exercise, code-named “Rapid Trident” has been an annual event since 2006, and has been organized by the Germany-based US European Command (EUCOM). It was initially planned to have this year’s drills in mid-July, but they were postponed because of heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine.

This year’s exercise will involve command post exercises, patrolling, counter-IED training and a field training exercise,” the EUCOM Public Affairs Office said in a statement. It adds that “no live fire exercises” have been scheduled for the drills
The exercise is being conducted near Yavoriv, 60 kilometers from the city of Lvov in north-western Ukraine, at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center (IPSC)
Image from maps.google.com
Image from maps.google.com



The US earlier pledged to send 200 troops to take part in the exercise.


US prepares military drill in W. Ukraine for mid-September


Earlier in September, Ukrainian and American naval forces held joint maritime drills in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.


The Russian Black Sea fleet simultaneously tested its new-generation Bastion coastal defense system, saying the test was pre-scheduled and was not a response to the US-Ukraine drills in the Black Sea.


Moscow has been particularly sensitive about NATO’s increased activity in Eastern Europe and has been thinking of reviewing its military doctrine due to this new situation.


Russia to adjust military doctrine due to NATO expansion, Ukraine crisis


Eastern Ukraine has meanwhile seen the fragile ceasefire there being put to a serious test on Sunday, when the city of Donetsk witnessed some heavy shelling.


A crew from RT’s video agency Ruptly working on the outskirts of Donetsk witnessed an episode when a family was forced to run for shelter to escape shelling.

Russia to boost Crimea troop numbers, worries over military build-up at borders


RT,
15 September, 2014

Russia is going to increase its military presence on the Crimean Peninsula as “the situation in Ukraine has escalated sharply,” Russian Defense Minister announced.
The plan released by Sergey Shoigu is due to the increased “presence of foreign military” in “the immediate vicinity” of Russia’s borders.
"The deployment of proper and self-sufficient forces in the direction of Crimea is one of [our] top priorities," he said.

The military-political situation in the southwestern strategic direction has changed significantly since the beginning of the current year. This is largely due to the expansion of the territory of [Russia’s] Southern Military District after Crimea joined Russia,” Shoigu said.

The Russian Defense Ministry will also consider setting up technical missile bases in “each military district.”
"We will discuss proposals to create missile technical bases in each military district. The creation of more autonomous units of storage and transportation [of missiles] will allow us to fully use missile military units when they are used in different operating directions and at a considerable distance from each other,"Shoigu said.

Russia's military districts: Blue - West, Green - Center, Orange - East, Brown - South (Updated image from wikipedia.org now shows Crimea as part of South Military District)
Russia's military districts: Blue - West, Green - Center, Orange - East, Brown - South (Updated image from wikipedia.org now shows Crimea as part of South Military District)

In response to the Russian Defense Ministry’s announcement, NATO warned that any increase in Russian troops in the Crimea region will further undermine the ceasefire currently in place,” Reuters said, citing the alliance’s spokesperson.


"We have seen reports that Russia intends to increase its troop presence in Crimea. Such a move can only increase tensions and it will further undermine the ceasefire currently in place as well as the security of the region, which Russian actions have gravely eroded," NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu told the news agency.

Ukraine is currently hosting military drills code-named “Rapid Trident” that involves a total of 1,300 troops from 15 nations, either active NATO members or would-be members.

Lithuanian servicem walk following the opening ceremony of the "Rapid Trident" military exercises on September 15, 2014. (AFP Photo/Yurko Dyachyshyn)

Earlier NATO announced its plans to expand to Eastern Europe, specifically the three Baltic states – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. The alliance also said it is working towards the creation of an expeditionaryforce composed of 10,000 troops from seven different member states.

Russia has warned that NATO’s progress towards the east and Ukraine, which the military bloc sees as a potential member, will trigger a strong reaction.

In July, Putin said that the alliance’s military build-up near Russia’s borders, which includes a US-built missile defense system, is not just for defensive purposes, but is an offensive weapon” and an element of the US offensive system deployed outside the mainland.”

Tires on fire: Right Sector rallying in Kiev as govt votes for political purging


RT,
15 September, 2014
A rally outside the Ukrainian Parliament building has turned violent as activists set tires on fire. Meanwhile, MPs have adopted a law that bans the closest allies of Ukraine’s deposed President Yanukovich from politics.

Dozens of hooded people gathered outside the parliament in Kiev shouting "Lustration!"

Police were forced to cordon off the building as the protesters rallying for Yanukovich-era officials to be removed from their posts put tires on fire, set off several fireworks and pelted eggs at the law enforcers

The thick smoke and heat made the police retreat somewhat. Live streams from the scene showed several people were detained and one person taken away by a medic teView image on Twitter
«Правый сектор» штурмует Верховную Раду − прямая трансляция!!!! http://politikus.ru/events/30031-pravyy-sektor-shturmuet-verhovnuyu-radu-8722-pryamaya-translyaciya.html 

Protesters burn tyres outside the Ukrainian Parliament on September 16, 2014. (AFP Photo / Yuriy Kirnichny)
Protesters burn tyres outside the Ukrainian Parliament on September 16, 2014. (AFP Photo / Yuriy Kirnichny)

At least three people, two civilians and a National Guard soldier, have sustained “traumas of varying degrees of severity,” Kiev police said later in an official statement.
View image on Twitter
Рада провалила закон о люстрации, активисты перекрыли Грушевского http://nvua.net/ukraine/Rada-provalila-zakon-o-lyustracii-aktivisty-perekryli-Grushevskogo-12171.html 

As the law was adopted, the crowd cheered and applauded.

The so-called lustration bill has been supported by 231 members of parliament - the minimum required is 226 votes - during the second and the last reading. If signed into law by President Petro Poroshenko, MPs who worked under Viktor Yanukovich will be forced to leave the parliament and will be permanently banned from occupying seats.

View image on Twitter
Верховна Рада проголосувала ЗА закон "Про очищення влади" - люстрації бути!

Ukraine has not previously employed lustration. The bill was earlier adopted in the first reading in mid-August. The bill’s authors propose checking candidates for government positions before appointment.

Under the bill, those who failed the check are those who held office between February 25, 2010 and February 22, 2014. In particular, Ukraine's president, prime minister, first deputy prime minister, vice prime ministers of Ukraine, ministers, heads of the security service, the General Prosecutor's office, and national Bank,” the draft law reads.

The law, MPs said, would revive people’s trust in the government
Protesters burn tyres outside the Ukrainian Parliament on September 16, 2014. (AFP Photo / Yuriy Kirnichny)
Protesters burn tyres outside the Ukrainian Parliament on September 16, 2014. (AFP Photo / Yuriy Kirnichny)



Ukraine Currency Crashes To Record Low As IMF Blasts "Gross Abuses"


15 September, 2014


Despite celebrations of de-escalations and truce in US equity markets (by asset-gathering commission-takers), the situation continues to go from bad to worse in the nation almost forgotten now that ISIS is stealing American headlines. The Hryvnia plunged 7.5% this morning - its biggest single-day drop on record - following the release of a scathing IMF letter and devaluation warnings from BofA. The IMF blasted Ukraine's "premature emission of extra money," and demanded it "immediately halt these gross abuses," as BofA warns of risk of "10-20% devaluation" in the next year is high given reserves are at a "critical level."
UAH plunges 7.5% to record lows this morning...

As far as the truce is concerned, we leave it to Bloomberg's Richard Breslow to explain the idiocy...







For a truce that people keep celebrating -- the 11th day  -- there seem to be a lot of people still dying, troops moving around, still questions about more sanctions, ultimate effects on Russia eco, the local markets look quite ill.
Russia itself has put out dire f/casts, growth down 3%-4% and recession;
RUB made yet another all-time low, seems to     have quieted, Micex is up, hryvnia getting pole-axed

Additionally Luhansk Rebels Would Like to Switch to Ruble, RIA Says







Self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic hopes it won’t have to use Ukraine’s hryvnia much longer, RIA Novosti reports, citing republic’s leader Igor Plotnitskiy.
Plotnitskiy says political issues complicate matter, though he doesn’t expect hryvnia to be used for much longer: RIA
Luhansk still must resolve many economic, financial issues, including development of banking system: RIA

And then there is the IMF! (Source: e-news)


Which likely confirms BofA's warning of the potential for a Hyrvnia devaluation...







Central bank may have to further deplete FX reserves, now near “critical level” of $15b, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Vadim Khramov says in report
Natural gas purchases for winter to widen current-account deficit: Khramov
We see risks of 10%-20% hryvnia devaluation from the current level within a year": Khramov

*  *  *

But apart from that, everything is under control in Ukraine. Given the extent to which the UAH is falling and the strong language from the IMF, one could be mistaken for thinking the USA is pushing for another leader to be put in place once again...


Germany and France consider sending drones to Ukraine


RT,
15 September, 2014


German soldiers stand behund an unmanned Luna reconnaissance drones (Reuters)





German soldiers stand behund an unmanned Luna reconnaissance drones (Reuters


German drones may soon be flying over Ukraine as part of the OSCE mission to monitor the truce between Kiev forces and militia fighters. The German Defense Ministry has sent a team to southeastern Ukraine. France is also considering sending drones.

The ministry announced its readiness to fulfill the OSCE’s request in an official statement published on Bundeswehr’s (Germany’s armed forces) website.

On Tuesday, a team of 14 UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) experts from Germany arrived to Ukraine, along with French colleagues. They are examining the area near an uncontested site near the rebel-held city of Lugansk.

Over the next three to five days, logistical, technical, and medical staff will analyze the conditions and determine whether Germany – and possibly France – will be able to deliver drones to the region. 


“Based on the results of the reconnaissance mission it will then be considered whether and in what form Germany and France could participate in a support mission for the OSCE, subject to political support,”
the German military said.

Schiebel's unmanned aerial vehicle Camcopter S-100 (AFP Photo/ HO / Schiebel)
Schiebel's unmanned aerial vehicle Camcopter S-100 (AFP Photo/ HO / Schiebel)
If a green light is given for deployment, Germany will send Luna reconnaissance drones. The drones are capable of flying at an altitude of up to 5,000 meters (16,000 feet) for six hours. They are only 2.36 meters (7.74 feet) long and weigh 40 kilograms (88 pounds), and can deliver video and still images to a ground station in real time.

On September 13, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko officially authorized the OSCE mission to deploy drones. The OSCE then called on its partners to join the mission.

Austria has offered its Schiebel Camcopter S-100 drones, which can fly for six hours at a height of up to 5,500 meters (18,000 feet), at a speed of 220 km/h (136 mph). The drones will enable observers to easily monitor troop and civilian movements in contested areas and along the border.

The idea of monitoring the border with UAVs was earlier welcomed by Moscow, which insisted on stationing OSCE monitors at Russian checkpoints back in July.

On September 5, Kiev and members of self-proclaimed republics in Donbas agreed to a ceasefire during talks in Minsk. The peace plan, based on Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposals, calls for an 
all to all” prisoners of war exchange, hardware withdrawal, and humanitarian aid access to the area.

The two sides in Ukraine have vowed not to use military force unless the opposing side violates conditions of the truce.





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