The European economy

European Industrial Production Plunges 2.3 Percent; Greece GDP Plunges 7.2 Percent

Mish's Global Economic Analysis,

14 November, 2012

Inquiring minds investigating the collapse in Europe note Euro-Zone Industrial Production Declines Steeply 

 Industrial production in the 17 countries that use the euro fell sharply in September as weak output across both the core and peripheral economies added to expectations for a poor third quarter gross domestic product print Thursday.

Data from the European Union's statistical agency Eurostat showed industrial production fell 2.5% on the month in September, That was the largest fall since January 2009 and compares with August's 0.9% increase. On the year, output dropped 2.3% after a 1.3% decline in August.

The data were weaker than expected as economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week had expected a 2.0% monthly fall and a 2.1% decline in annual terms.

Energy output fell 1.8% in September compared with August, the biggest fall since an 8.4% drop in March of this year, while a 2.8% month-on-month decline in production of non-durable consumer goods was the steepest since January 2000.

And, Eurostat said that a drop in car production across France and Germany saw both countries post monthly output falls of 2.7% and 2.1%, respectively. The fall in French output was the steepest since January 2009, while the drop in German production was the biggest since November last year.

Industrial production in Portugal fell 12.0% on the month in September, the biggest fall since records began in 2000 and was due primarily to strike action that month. And, Ireland's 12.6% monthly drop in output was mainly driven by a drop in activity in the pharmaceutical sector, Eurostat said.

Greece GDP Plunges 7.2 Percent

Reuters reports Greece sinks deeper into depression in third quarter 

 Greece's economic slump deepened in the third quarter, with output shrinking 7.2 percent on an annual basis as the debt-laden country heads into its sixth year of depression and struggles to meet its bailout targets.

The contraction was deeper than the second quarter's 6.3 percent drop and follows the passage of a tough 2013 budget by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras's government that is expected to continue to smother growth for most of next year.

Since 2009, the Mediterranean state's economic decline - which Samaras has dubbed Greece's "Great Depression" - has wiped a fifth off economic output and sent unemployment to a record high, putting one in four Greeks out of work.

The reading could point to an even grimmer outlook, analysts said, because it was offset by better-than-expected returns from the country's vital tourism sector, which accounts for a fifth of Greece's 215 billion euro economy.

Spain is also in recession, and fellow austerity-hit Portugal's contraction deepened in the third quarter, with export growth slowing and domestic demand hit by an austerity programme imposed under the country's international bailout.

Portugal's economy shrank 3.4 percent year on year, National Statistics Institute INE said on Wednesday, accelerating from the previous quarter's revised 3.2 percent drop.

Little to add other than things will get much worse. Expect France and Germany to take a big economic dive as well.

Looking Ahead, Spain Worse

 

 

 

Than Greece; Only One

 

 

 

Realistic Solution

 

 

 

Mish's Global Economic Analysis,

14 November, 2012

Both Greece and Spain are in the midst of huge depressions. The unemployment rate in Spain is 25.8%, in Greece it's 24.4%. Youth unemployment is over 50% in both countries. 

Greece is in its 6th year of depression and GDP is down another 7.2%. Expect Spain to follow. 

Matthew Dalton, writing for the Wall Street Journal explains Where Spain Is Worse Than Greece

 By most measures, Greece’s economy is in worse shape than Spain’s. Greece has been largely shut off from financial markets for more than two years; yields on its bonds are still sky high. Gross domestic product has fallen nearly 20% over the previous three years. Spain can still borrow from private investors, and its GDP has fallen around 5% during the crisis.

But if you take forecasts from the European Commission seriously, Greece enjoys one formidable advantage over Spain: Its economy is running well below capacity, while the Spanish economy, despite an unemployment rate around 25%, is operating relatively close to full steam.

Why is that an advantage? According to the commission, it means that the Greek unemployment rate should fall sharply if the economy starts to recover again, without causing inflation. Spain faces a much more difficult situation. If the structure of its labor market doesn’t change, the commission’s analysis suggests that a nascent economic recovery in Spain could be hampered by labor shortages that would spark wage inflation.

Greece faces similar problems, but they are less serious, according to the commission’s analysis. Yes, the “government-borrows-money-and funds-consumption” model of growth won’t be available to Greece anymore. But it didn’t endure the same private-sector credit bubble that hit Spain during the previous decade.

The differences between Greece and Spain can be seen in several economic metrics published by the commission. There is the output gap, or the difference between actual GDP and potential GDP (as a percentage of potential GDP). The figure is a whopping 13% for Greece but just 4.6% for Spain.

Then take a look at the commission’s estimates of the so-called non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU) in Greece and Spain. This is the unemployment rate below which the commission believes the inflation rate starts to rise. It’s also known as the “natural rate” of unemployment. The natural unemployment rate for Greece is around 14.8%; it is 21.5% for Spain. This despite unemployment rates around 25% in both countries.

Spain’s structural budget deficit is somewhat smaller than its actual deficit (6.3% of GDP vs. 8%), because of the country’s weak economy. But most of the deficit is still “structural,” according to the commission, a disturbing thought in a country where 25% of the workforce is unemployed.

And because the euro zone’s new “Fiscal Pact” requires countries to bring their structural deficits under 0.5% of GDP, Spain still has a lot of government austerity to endure before the cutting is done.

Only One Realistic Solution

 

I do not subscribe to the concept of a "natural rate of unemployment". Nonetheless, if even half of what Dalton writes is true, Spain is in a world of hurt.

I do think Dalton hits the target on structural issues and that puts an unsolvable problem on the Spanish government that is struggling mightily to not subject itself to Troika-imposed austerity measures in return for a bailout.

Eventually Spain, like Greece will see the light. The only way out of this mess is to leave the euro and simultaneously undertake structural reforms.