Israeli (and Lebanese) commentary

Will Hamas be able to resist targeting Tel Aviv?

Hamas knows the ramifications of targeting central Israel, but it might not be able to hold back; a rocket resulting in casualties in central Israel would probably lead to prolonging and intensifying the military operation.

Haaretz,

15 November, 2012

Is the cross-border fighting taking place between the western Negev and the Gaza Strip just another round of violence - as harsh as it is - or the beginning of a significant military operation, one that could escalate to an extensive ground operation in the Strip?

The answer to that question has not yet been given, but it will become apparent in the next few days. At the moment, it seems that that answer depends a great deal on Hamas’ conduct, as well as on its ability to control the other militant groups working in Gaza.

The Palestinians can choose between two courses of action to avenge the assassination of Hamas strongman Ahmed Jabari – the continuation of massive rocket fire on Israeli towns located up to 45 kilometers from the Strip, or, in addition, the launch of medium-range missiles (with a range of 70-75 kilometers) at the Tel Aviv area.

Firing at Tel Aviv is a "game changer." A rocket resulting in casualties in central Israel would probably lead to prolonging and intensifying the military operation. No one in the Israeli leadership discounts the magnitude of the disaster in Kiryat Malakhi on Thursday, where three civilians were killed. And yet, the response for rockets targeting central Israel is expected to be even harsher.

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Operation Pillar of Defense’s opening volley probably took the sting out of most of the Palestinians’ ability to launch attacks at the Tel Aviv area, with Israel Air Force jets striking Hamas' Fajr missile firing pits. Israel Defense Forces sources indicated that every site known to Israeli intelligence was attacked, adding, however, that it must be assumed that the organizations in the Strip retained at least residual firing abilities, whether of Fajr missiles or of 200 mm. self-made rockets, which could have a similar range.

While Hamas also understands the significance of attacking Israel’s center, the possibility that it will choose to go down that path remains, as emotions run high following Jabari’s killing. They haven’t done so until now, but amid the pressure on the organization to score a significant achievement, a video was published on Thursday, allegedly depicting a rocket fired at Tel Aviv. However, Israeli officials said no such attempt was registered, citing only a launch targeting the town of Gedera, which is still within 40 kilometers from the Strip.

Israel’s problem is that the firing stage of the operation is beginning to draw to a close. Based on past experience, we can assume that such an aerial campaign loses its effectiveness within three or four days. On the first day we achieve surprise, on the second day we exploit opportunities that are created as a result of mistakes by the enemy, on the third or fourth days we start making mistakes and missing the mark. By the end of the week, the Israeli leadership will have to decide whether they are going for a more extensive ground operation or making do with what has been achieved and assisting the international effort to reach a quick cease-fire.

Meanwhile, Israel is noting with satisfaction the outright American support for its right to self-defense, which was expressed in the conversation between U.S. President Barack Obama and Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi on Wednesday. If we don’t get into trouble due to extensive killing of civilians in the Strip, the United States may also agree to use its veto in the United Nations Security Council in order to reject proposals that are hostile to Israel.

Jabari’s assassination created a more serious crisis between Israel and Egypt than it appeared at first. It is not only a matter of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, which are releasing anti-Israeli declarations. The security establishment and the intelligence community in Cairo, which were responsible for mediating between Israel and Hamas, also think that Israel has crossed a red line this time.

In Cairo they saw the cessation of fire on Tuesday morning on the part of Hamas and the other factions in Gaza as a significant achievement. Intelligence personnel there believed that calm on the border was imminent – and were angry at the Israeli operation. It came to them as a shock, no less than it surprised Hamas.

For now, Cairo is not making a concerted effort to bring about a swift cease-fire. The Egyptian intelligence people are still awaiting the instructions of their political leadership before taking action. At this stage it looks as though the Egyptians actually want to put coordinated international pressure on Israel to stop the fighting.

Yasser Othman, the Egyptian ambassador in the Palestinian Authority, who is stationed in Ramallah, said Thursday that his country is working in that direction internationally. He said that “the new Egypt will not permit Israeli aggression in Gaza.” It turns out that for the time being the Egyptian intelligence's primary Hamas contact, in place of Jabari, will be Moussa Abu-Marzouk, who is a candidate to head the organization’s political bureau, and is stationed in Cairo.

The next step?

The objectives of the operation as declared Wednesday by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak were deliberately restrained and modest, so that they would be achievable. But the political leadership is likely to be tempted to believe that it is capable of achieving far more, if only it sends the ground forces to the Strip. At present, and we are saying this cautiously, it is hard to identify much enthusiasm among the IDF leadership for a major ground operation. We have to hope that parallel to the aggressive operational plans, Jerusalem is already thinking about an exit strategy.

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From Lebanon's 'the Star'

War looms over Gaza as

death toll rises

the Star,

26 April, 2012

A Hamas rocket killed three Israelis north of the Gaza Strip on Thursday, drawing the first blood from Israel as the Palestinian death toll rose to 15 in a military showdown lurching closer to all-out war and an invasion of the enclave.

On the second day of an assault Israel said might last many days and culminate in a ground attack, its warplanes bombed targets in and around Gaza city, where tall buildings trembled.

Plumes of smoke and dust furled into a sky laced with the vapour trails of outgoing rockets.

The sudden conflict, launched by Israel with the killing of Hamas's military chief, pours oil on the fire of a Middle East already ablaze with two years of revolution and an out-of-control civil war in Syria. Palestinian allies, led by Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi, denounced the Israeli offensive.

After watching powerlessly from the sidelines of the Arab Spring, Israel has been thrust to the centre of a volatile new world in which Islamist Hamas believes that Mursi and his newly dominant Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt will be its protectors.

The Palestinian Islamist group claimed it had fired a one-tonne, Iranian-made Fajr 5 rocket at Tel Aviv in what would be a major escalation, but there was no reported impact in the Israeli metropolis 50 km (30 miles) north of the enclave.

"The Israelis must realize that this aggression is unacceptable and would only lead to instability in the region and would negatively and greatly impact the security of the region," Mursi said, although there was no immediate sign of robust action by Egypt, Israel's most powerful Arab neighbour.

The new conflict will be the biggest test yet of Mursi's commitment to Egypt's 1979 peace treaty with Israel, which the West views as the bedrock of Middle East peace.

The Muslim Brotherhood, which brought Mursi to power in an election after the downfall of autocrat Hosni Mubarak, has called for a 'Day of Rage' in Arab capitals on Friday. The Brotherhood is seen as the spiritual mentors of Hamas.

The offensive began on Wednesday when a precision Israeli airstrike assassinated Hamas military mastermind Ahmed Al-Jaabari, and Israel shelled the enclave from land, air and sea.

The 15 killed in Gaza included Jaabari and six Hamas fighters plus eight civilians, among them a pregnant woman with twins, an 11-month old boy and three infants, according to the enclave's health ministry. Medics reported at least 130 wounded.

At Jaabari's funeral on Thursday, supporters fired guns in the air celebrating news of the Israeli deaths, to chants for Jaabari of "You have won." His corpse was borne through the streets wrapped in a bloodied white sheet. But senior Hamas figures were not in evidence, wary of Israel's warning that they are now in its crosshairs.

The Israeli army said 156 targets were hit in Gaza, 126 of them rocket launchers. It said 200 rockets had struck Israel since the start of the operation, 135 of them since midnight.

Israel's Iron Dome interceptor system has so far shot down 81 rockets headed towards residential areas, the military said.

One of those that got through caught its victims before they could reach the blast shelters that are everywhere in the Negev region, prey to sporadic Palestinian rocket attacks from Gaza for the past five years.

Israeli police said the three died when a rocket hit a four-story building in the town of Kiryat Malachi, some 25 km (15 miles) north of Gaza. They were the first Israeli fatalities of the latest conflict to hit the coastal region.

Expecting days or more of fighting and almost inevitable civilian casualties, Israeli warplanes dropped leaflets in Gaza telling residents to stay away from Hamas and other militants.

The United States condemned Hamas, shunned by the West as an obstacle to peace for its refusal to renounce violence and recognize Israel.

"There is no justification for the violence that Hamas and other terrorist organizations are employing against the people of Israel," said Mark Toner, deputy State Department spokesman.

The U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting late on Wednesday to discuss the Israeli assault. It called for a halt to the violence, but took no action.

In France, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said: "It would be a catastrophe if there is an escalation in the region. Israel has the right to security but it won't achieve it through violence. The Palestinians also have the right to a state."

Israel's sworn enemy Iran, which supports and arms Hamas, condemned the Israeli offensive as "organized terrorism". Lebanon's Iranian-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah, which has its own rockets aimed at the Jewish state, denounced strikes on Gaza as "criminal aggression", but held its fire.

Oil prices rose more than $1 as the crisis grew. Israeli shares and bonds fell, while Israel's currency rose off Wednesday's lows, when the shekel slid more than 1 percent to a two-month low against the dollar.

A second Gaza war has loomed on the horizon for months as waves of Palestinian rocket attacks and Israeli strikes grew increasingly intense and frequent. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, favored in polls to win a Jan. 22 general election, said on Wednesday the Gaza operation could be stepped up.

His cabinet has granted authorization for the mobilization of military reserves if required to press the offensive, dubbed "Pillar of Defense" in English and "Pillar of Cloud" in Hebrew after the Israelites' divine sign of deliverance in Exodus.

Hamas has said the killing of its top commander In a precision, death-from-above airstrike, would "open the gates of hell" for Israel. It appealed to Egypt to halt the assault.

Israel has been anxious since Mubarak was toppled last year in the Arab Spring revolts that replaced secularist strongmen with elected Islamists in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, and brought civil war to Israel's other big neighbor Syria.

Cairo recalled its ambassador from Israel on Wednesday. Israel's ambassador left Cairo on what was called a routine home visit and Israel said its embassy would stay open.

Gaza has an estimated 35,000 Palestinian fighters, no match for Israel's F-16 fighter-bombers, Apache helicopter gunships, Merkava tanks and other modern weapons systems in the hands of a conscript force of 175,000, with 450,000 in reserve.