Lies, lies and statistics

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We are starting to get a press that is starting to be a bit more candid about the move towards a global depression..However, in New Zealand this discussion is still almost completely absent.  Instead we have a combination of feigned optimism, distortion and lies by omission.

As an example, I often hear a bit of news on Radio New Zealand that by the time I reach the computer has already disappeared into the ether and has to be recovered, with some effort using a Search Engine.

This next headline is a case-in-point.  The article is touting an "improvement" in consumer confidence because people are spending slightly more according to the statistics.  

When one delves only slightly deeper one finds that people are not spending more but prices have gone up, sometimes radically - for instance the farmers we buy our meat from have had their rates doubled.  According to the reports this must reflect an 'improving outlook'

 

NZ: Consumer spending up

RadioNZ,

10 September, 2012

Latest figures show a bounce in consumer spending. Paymark, which processes about three quarters of all electronic transactions, reported growth of 5.5% in August, compared with the same month last year.

That's up from growth of 3.8% in June and July.

The value of transactions rose by 15.5% to $3.8 billion.

Paymark said cities are showing signs of strong growth for the first time in three years and South Island regions recorded the strongest growth.

But spending is still below the pre-Rugby World Cup levels of 2011, with the accommodation sector showing a 5% drop.

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"The reality is that businesses are being closed down due to declining resource prices and reduced demand which is leading to much higher unemployment.

The statistics once again hide the reality of the situation because they don't reflect those who are no longer in the jobs market and the export of our unemployment problem to Australia which has traditionally absorbed many of our workers.

We hear how a lot of the laid-off coal miners will move to Australia - I now have my doubts about how they will fare there now that the Australian coal industry itself is shedding jobs.

Unemployment 'alarmingly high'

Gloomy new jobless forecasts suggest unemployment won't fall below 6 per cent before 2014, and opposition parties and unions say the Government must do more to create jobs.

Stuff,

7 September, 2012

It comes as hundreds of job losses were announced in the past week including 65 at the Tiwai Point aluminum smelter, 65 at Solid Energy's Christchurch headoffice, 20 full time and 200 seasonal workers at the North Island Mussel Processors Limited and plans by Food producer Goodman Fielder to cut its manufacturing factories from 53 to 35 within the next few years.

Forecasts by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment released yesterday predict unemployment will fall from 6.8 per cent in the June 2012 quarter to 6.2 per cent next March and 5.9 per cent in 2014.

The Council of Trade Unions economist Bill Rosenberg said the forecasts were in ''strong contrast'' from the Government's Budget day prediction that unemployment would fall to 5.7 per cent next March.

There are now 162,000 New Zealanders unemployed.

''These figures continue to be alarmingly high. We need the Government to have a plan to generate jobs-led growth for our economy.''

The Government needed to boost training for the Christchurch rebuild, build trains in New Zealand, retain public sector jobs, increase infrastructure projects, reinstate tertiary spending cuts and ''stop hoping the market will fix this'', Rosenberg said.

Labour says the National-led Government has now lost more jobs than it has created.Leader David Shearer said tens of thousands of Kiwis were losing their jobs because of the Government's ''abysmal economic record''.

"Under National, there are now 57,000 more people unemployed. In the past three months alone, another 2000 workers have registered as unemployed.''

The Government blamed job losses on the global economic downturn but the climate was the same when it announced in the May Budget 170,000 new jobs would be created, he said.

Labour would modernise monetary policy to better support exporters, Shearer said.His comments were echoed by NZ First leader Winton Peters who said the Government must address the ''seriously overvalued'' New Zealand dollar.

''The smelter owners have blamed the overvalued Kiwi dollar as playing a major role in the redundancies.''

Finance Minister Bill English today blamed the job losses on ''grumpy growth''.

He acknowledged redundancies created ''insecurity'' for the workers and their families.

''If that was avoidable, that would be good,'' he told Radio New Zealand.

''But it is part of a pattern being called grumpy growth where we have within some sectors, companies doing better, companies doing worse.''

While some mining companies were struggling, the Australian owned Bathurst Resources was ready to hire after getting final consents, English said.Over the past few years 54,000 jobs had been created.

''We would expect that rate of job creation to continue.''

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It is traditional for right-wing governments to bash benefiiaries - they provide a natural scapegoat for the economic malaise, in a similar way to immigrants.

I do wonder whether there is another agenda here - to get people off welfare and leave them to fate.  That has the double benefit to the government of bringing down unemployment statistics and of avoiding the political fallout of simply cutting welfare spending in a more straightforward way. 

 

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Govt warned that crackdown could hurt children

Radio NZ.

12 September, 2012

The Government is being warned a crackdown on beneficiaries could ultimately hurt the very children it's intended to help.

From next July, parents on a benefit will have to ensure their children meet four health and education requirements, otherwise their benefit could be cut by up to half.

Children must also be enrolled with a GP and have core health checks.

Parents will get three chances to fall into line before having their benefit cut by up to half.

Labour says if a benefit is cut, the children the Government says it's trying to help could end up worse off.

The Green Party describes the move as ''another'' mass distraction from the problem of child poverty.

Party co-leader Metiria Turei said it's unfair that the financial penalty would apply solely to beneficiaries and not other parents.

But United Future leader Peter Dunne says it's a fundamentally good idea for people receiving a benefit to have to meet certain obligations for their children.

However, he hopes it won't be a repeat of the Shipley Government's code of social responsibility.

Mr Dunne said that failed by imposing obligations on people without the Government providing services to hold up its end of the bargain.