Grim prospects for Afghanistan

Afghanistan 'facing civil war when US troops leave'

Afghanistan will slide back into civil war when American troops leave, according to a key insurgent negotiator who says peace talks now have no chance of success.

The Telegraph,

14 September, 2012

Ghairat Baheer, a senior figure in Hizb-i-Islami who has held three meetings with US officials in Kabul, told The Daily Telegraph that last week's decision by Hillary Clinton to declare the Haqqani network, an insurgent group linked to the Taliban, has killed off hopes of a negotiated settlement.

He said the withdrawal of US combat troops by the end of 2014 would leave Afghan forces ill-equipped to withstand the combined threat of insurgent groups.

"The Americans have their calculation that if it bring down expenses the lowest level but I don't think the national army and national police will be able to resist. They don't have the morale," he said. "It will lead to civil war."

His prediction of "chaos" contradicts an upbeat assessment delivered by Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, who said British troops may leave sooner than the end of 2014.

In an interview with the Guardian he claimed commanders were "surprised by the extent to which they have been able to draw back and leave the Afghans to take the lion's share of the combat role".

The spectre of civil war is the worst case scenario envisaged by Nato commanders as they gradually hand over responsibility for security to Afghan forces. The strategy is coupled with moves to engage Taliban leaders in talks.

Earlier this week, General John Allen, commander of Nato-led troops in the country, said more than three quarters of the population now lived in areas where local forces had taken the lead for security. And this week the Kabul government took control of Bagram prison – long seen as a symbol of American brutality and contempt for justice by locals – in a move hailed as a victory for Afghan sovereignty. Dr Baheer, who spent six years held by US forces at different prisons including Bagram, has met American officials three times in Kabul as part of a nascent peace process, which he now says holds no prospect of progress.

However, now he says Hizb-i-Islami has ended its involvement in talks with the Afghan government because of its close alliance with the US. He said that blacklisting the Haqqani network had made it impossible for the Taliban to negotiate.

"It is OK to renounce al-Qaeda but how can they renounce Haqqani, when he and his people are part of the Taliban? This breaks all negotiations and chance of settlement," he said.

Instead he insisted that a national government, including the Taliban and Hizb-i-Islami, be established to represent all of Afghanistan.