Japan's electricity woes

Japan's nuclear output to fall to 17.3% of capacity as Genkai unit closes

Platts,

1Dec2011/523 am EST/1023 GMT

Only nine nuclear reactors with a combined power generation capacity of 8.479 GW will soon be operating in Japan, representing just 17.3% of the country's total installed capacity of 48.96 GW at 54 reactors, according to calculations by Platts on Thursday.

Kyushu Electric is scheduled to shut the 559 GW No. 1 reactor at its Genkai nuclear power plant in western Japan late Thursday for scheduled maintenance. 

Japan is about to enter its winter power demand season, which normally runs from December to March. The weather and nuclear utilization rates have a direct impact on crude, fuel oil and LNG consumption for thermal power generation. 

Kyushu Electric has estimated that it might need another 2.20 million kiloliters (13.84 million barrels) of oil equivalent of crude, fuel oil and LNG over December-March. Of this estimate, Kyushu Electric's oil requirements are expected to be about 1.70 million kl (88,000 b/d) over December-March, Platts reported previously.

Kyushu Electric's remaining 1.18 GW No.4 nuclear reactor at its Genkai plant is scheduled to shut for maintenance on December 25, at which time the company will have shut all of its nuclear capacity.

Japanese power utilities have hiked their oil and LNG consumption to make up for shortfalls in nuclear output in the wake of the devastating March 11 earthquake and subsequent nuclear outages across the country due to safety concerns. It is widely expected that the nuclear plants shut for scheduled maintenance will not be allowed to restart any time soon because of stress test conditions imposed by the government in July.

If none of the reactors are allowed to restart in coming months, Japan is scheduled to lose its nuclear power generation capability completely in April or May 2012, because of domestic regulations requiring nuclear power plants to carry out scheduled maintenance at reactors at least once every 13 months. If this occurs, it would be the first time Japanese nuclear power production has fallen to zero since it commenced in 1966.

Nuclear capacity represents 21% of Japan's total installed power generating capacity of 228.479 GW.