The IEA changes its mind on Peak Oil

This week’s interview of the International Energy Agency’s chief economist Dr. Fatih Birol on National radio  has had a profound effect on me.  Not only was he giving official confirmation of what we have known for some years now - namely, that world crude oil production has already peaked, about five years ago, but the interview raised about as many questions as it answered.

Foremost amongst these was: why was Dr. Birol making such a stark statement, albeit buried in lots of statements that seemed to be more face-saving self-justification than fact through the antipodean media? (the ABC and Radio New Zealand).  

When I  looked on the internet I could not find any other references to this in the international media except for an article by George Monbiot who was content to merely refer to the ABC interview. I  further checked by sending an email to John Vidal, environmental editor of the Guardian and he wrote back to me: “(It) has been mentioned but we haven't interviewed Fatih directly yet.

We need ‘four Saudi Arabias’ to make up the shortfall.  I  knew I had heard this before so I checked.  Mike Ruppert said so in the movie Collapse, quoting the late Matt Simmons who had in fact said “three Saudi Arabias”.  Then he said “we are the first ones” to make a proper study of oil reserves; I knew that this work had been done years before by people like Colin Campbell, Matt Simmons and many others.

The language reminded me of Brezhnev-era reports that euphemistically warned of “shortcomings”in the Soviet economy just a few short years before collapse.

Something just didn’t add up.  Rather than rest with my indignation I decided to check a few things up.

AGENCY CHANGES ITS MIND IN 2008

Back in 2005 the executive director of the IEA Claude Mandil dismissed Peak Oilers as “doomsayers”.  He wrote: "The IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern. Hydrocarbon resources around the world are abundant and will easily fuel the world through its transition to a sustainable energy future." 

The 2007 the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) report stated: “World oil resources are judged to be sufficient to meet the projected growth in in demand to 2030” and predicted a rate of decline in output from the world's existing oilfields of 3.7% a year. This, it said, presented a short-term challenge, with the possibility of a temporary supply crunch in 2015, but with sufficient investment any shortfall could be covered. 

Yet, just a year later, at the end of 2008 the Agency was acknowledging Peak Oil and projecting a  peak in 2020. and a projected rate of decline of 6.7%. On the basis of this new report environmentalist George Monbiot who writes for the Guardian went to Paris to interview Dr. Birol and there is an excellent video    with excerts from this interview.You can see the consternation Monbiot - he has to repeat his question several times.

In his  account Monbiot writes:

“So the IEA had better be right. In the report on peak oil commissioned by the US department of energy, the oil analyst Robert L Hirsch concluded that "without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs" of world oil supplies peaking "will be unprecedented". He went on to explain what "timely mitigation" meant. Even a worldwide emergency response "10 years before world oil peaking", he wrote, would leave "a liquid-fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked". To avoid global economic collapse, we need to begin "a mitigation crash programme 20 years before peaking". If Hirsch is right, and if oil supplies peak before 2028, we're in deep doodah”

Well, in 2011 it does seem not only that Robert Hirsch is right but that we have already peaked.  If the earlier predictions place us in deep doodah where does the new reality place us?

THE BACKGROUND

It turned out that there was a real story behind all of this.  I found an article from the Ecologist of last year which explained how a young 22-year old politics student Lionel Badal uncovered fraud at the IEA.  This was also covered by an earlier article in the Guardian “Key oil figures distorted by US pressure says whistleblower” (5)  I then found an account of the whole thing written by Claude Badal himself. (6)

It appears that  members of the Agency working on the 1998 WEO made a detailed assessment of future oil production  and  reached the conclusion: that oil production would peak well before 2020, around 2014.

The members of this team were Jean-Marie Bourdaire, Ken Wigley, Keith Miller and Fatih Birol.

Right from the start the team was under intense pressure and scrutiny so had to cloak their findings in some sort of code:

“A structural problem with oil as identified by the IEA team would undeniably question the sustainability of the current economic model. During the study, the IEA team realised the extent to which economic growth was correlated to the availability of abundant and cheap energy. Hence, once oil production would stop to grow and tensions appear, economic growth would become far more difficult to sustain, if not impossible. The IEA team was effectively walking on eggshells” (7)

So much so that one journalist David Fleming talked of a meeting with Fatih Birol in 1999 held in secret in a neutral location.  Apparently he even looked over his shoulder before talking.

They decided that they had to use coded language - they could not just blurt it out and say ‘We are looking at a big, permanent oil deficit, for which we can offer no solutions'.

In an open letter the Guardian Colin Campbell explained the background. (8)

In order to soften the message the team decided to add a ‘balancing item” called “unidentified conventional oil” that would suddenly appear, enough to  cancel the shortages.  This “balancing item” was a code for shortages.  It seems that pressure was brought to bear from the United States who had a vested interest in maintaining the fiction that oil was plentiful, and whose EIA reached the conclusion (without the detailed analysis of figures) that:

“ Oil prices are expected to remain relatively low, and resources are not expected to constrain substantial increases in oil demand through 2020... In 2020, world oil consumption is projected to exceed 115 million barrels per day....there is now widespread agreement that resources are not a key constraint in satisfying increases in world oil demand to 2020.”

It transpires that by revealing, albeit in code, the real situation the authors of the 1999 World Energy Outlook had got into trouble and intense pressure was put on the IEA by elements of the US administration:  Bourdaire, would have to leave the Agency while Wigley retired and Miller also left the IEA. The sole person from this team left was Dr. Fatih Birol who would go on to become the Agency’s chief economist.(9) 

It seems that he may have learned from this experience; the 2000 WEO, which he designed and managed suppressed any warning of a coming oil crunch. “The (2000) Outlook views the world oil-resource base as adequate to meet demand over the projection period... One need expect no global ‘supply crunch'.”

For almost a decade, until 2008 any findings that indicated that there was a problem with oil production or that discoveries were lower than expected were suppressed or ignored.

It seems amazing looking back now that the IEA could have told its member states in 2004 that oil prices were “assumed to remain flat until 2010, and then to begin to climb steadily to $29 in 2030 (sic)”.

The International Energy Agency was set up after the oil shocks of the 70’s to help prevent another oil shock and to provide a counterbalance to OPEC.  It has provided annual World Energy Outlooks for its member states that would help countries develop their energy policies. Basically the IEA was supposed to be a trustworthy and authoritative source of information.

Because of pressures from the US administration governments and businesses  from member states were basically misled until 2008 that oil prices would remain low - key years in which countries could have made decisions to develop renewable energy sources but didn’t because these energies were made to look uncompetitive compared to oil.

CONCLUSION

To me this statement by Dr. Birol that conventional oil has already peaked is of huge significance even if it is only confirming something that people in the Peak Oil movement have already known for some time. It seems incredible that this information from an Agency that has such importance for world governments should be largely ignored.  It seems that nobody wants to look at the true implications of this.

To quote George Monbiot again:

“To avoid global economic collapse, we need to begin "a mitigation crash programme 20 years before peaking". If Hirsch is right, and if oil supplies peak before 2028, we're in deep doodah”

Well, in 2011 it does seem not only that Robert Hirsch is right but that we have already peaked.  If the earlier predictions place us in deep doodah where does the new reality place us?

Peak Oil on National Radio - again!

Listening to Nine to Noon on National Radio this morning I could hardly believe my ears when I heard the words "Peak Oil".

Kathryn Ryan interviewed the chief economist for the International Energy Agency (IEA) Dr. Fatih Birol.

Interestingly this was followed immediately by a discussion with Australian correspondent Ray Moynihian on climate change and responses to it it Australia.

Dr. Birol acknowledged that the production of crude oil has already peaked, and put the crisis down to a combination of:
1) Demand from rapidly developing nations such as China and India
2) Geological constraints - ie. Peak Oil
3) Geopolitical considerations such as conflict in North Africa and the Middle East which make the markets nervous.

He does say that demand exceeds supply and that the "age of cheap oil" is over.  He does say (only when cued by the interviewer) that we need "four new Saudi Arabias" to make up the shortfall which he says is "a tall order"

I was slightly bemused to hear this as well as the claim that the IEA were the "first" ones to make a serious study of oil supply.  I heard the quote about 'four Saudi Arabias' from Michael Ruppert in his movie Collapse and he got it from the late Matt Simmons in 2002 who correctly identified what was coming some years back.

I suppose we will have to forgive Dr Birol from claiming the credit for belatedly acknowledging Peak Oil, but there are other huge holes in what he has to say.

Having said that we need four Saudi Arabias he goes on to repeat the nonsense that we can replace oil with  more "efficient" use of transport, electric cars and biofuels. He does say that this is "challenging".

He does make some connections with the state of the world economy which he describes as being "on fragile ground"; he seems to think that the answer to this is to somehow increase the amount of oil being drilled, to increase the amount of oil and to release nations' emergency stockpiles.  This, he says will "increase oil in the market" and "comfort the market".

All of which confirms what the Peak Oil movement has been saying all along.

P.S. There has also been an article reprinted from the Independent in todays New Zealand Herald

This is what he said to the Guardian's George Monbiot back in the beginning of 2009

MIchael Ruppert on National radio

The Sunday programme on Radio New Zealand this morning carried Chris Laidlaw's interview of Michael Ruppert, which is available here.

Strauss-Kahn, Greece and the US dollar

A major article came through the Guardian today, posing the question whether if Greece reneges on its debts as a result of a failure to give it further bailout money whether this could act in the same way as the collapse of Lehman Brothers did in 2008.

"It was less than three years ago that the failure of Lehman Brothers sent tremors through the global financial system, threatening the existence of every major bank and triggering the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. As Europe's policy elite met for fresh crisis talks today, the dark fear that haunted everyone around the table was this: if the bankruptcy of a middling-sized Wall Street investment bank with no retail customers could have such dire consequences, what would happen if the Greeks decide they have had enough and renege on their debts?

Could Greece, in other words, be the new Lehmans? Given the structure of modern financial markets, with their chains of derivative trades and their pyramids of debt, there is only one answer. Greece could certainly be the next Lehmans. The likelihood that a Greek default would pose a threat to the future of the eurozone as well as to the health of the world economy means it has the potential to be worse than Lehmans. Much worse."

Furthermore a report from Russian Today indicates that the charges against Strauss-Kahn, former head of the  IMF could have come as a result of pressure from the dollar lobby that need the dollar to remain as reserve currency and to prevent the sale-off of US treasuries to allow the printing press to keep running and prevent the financial collapse of the United States.

What you won't see reported in the press ... unless you look hard enough

One thing that I am certain of more than anything else is that we can't rely on our media to get any sense of the mess that we are finding ourselves in.  In the world of NZ television and print media climate change and Peak Oil may as well not exist and I wouldn't  hold by breath about the media helping to make sense of what is happening in the world economy.


For a while now I have been using the Internet and checking in with CollapseNet just about every day.  They do a stirling job with their News Desk which is a digest of daily news stories taken mostly from conventional media that is relevant to understanding the road to resource depletion and economic/social collapse that we seem to be on.


I have decided, for my own satisfaction to take what I consider the most important stories from the past two weeks or so and to try and bring these stories together to attempt to paint a picture of what is happening around us while most of us sleep.


I have looked at major stories from around the world; I am, however aware that there are things happening in other countries that do not get reported and examples of individual and group suffering that just evades our attention.

EUROPE

The economic situation in Europe continues to worsen as the sovereign debt crisis spreads from Greece to Ireland, then to Portugal, Spain and Italy

Denmark has violated EU rules by reintroducing passport control at its border

One report from Reuters said that there is a risk of the crisis spreading to the ‘core countries’

During this week the French head of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn was arrested for alleged sexual assault.  It looks very much as if this was a set-up, either from another rival group within the IMF or within the context of French politics.  Even such an august publication as the Telegraph is willing to entertain ‘conspiracy theories’

The arrest has sent shock waves throughout Europe.  He was supposed to be in Brussels on Monday for a meeting to discuss a possible further 60 billion euro bailout for Greece. 

He strongly supported policies that would help Greece avoid restructuring its massive public debt. and wanted to give Greece, Portugal and Ireland the time needed to put their accounts in order, and he also argued for softening the austerity measures associated with the bailouts for those countries. possibly providing a counter to the strict austerity policies favored by northern European leaders.

There have been several articles on the effects the economic crisis and austerities are having on Greeks

In the meantime one in five Spaniards under the age of 30 is unemployed and David Cameron has said that there are a million 16-24 year-olds without work in Britain.

NORTH AMERICA

The main story of the week has been the floods on the Mississipi as the floodwaters make their way down towards Louisiana and the coast bringing devastation to crops along the way.

Not only this but floods were threatening the oil and gas industries

Meanwhile other parts of North America are being threatened by crop failures due to wet weather while Texas is being threatened by the worst drought in years with wildfires.


The Canadian Wheat Board said fields are so muddy that only 3 percent of grain has been sown, compared with 40 percent normally. At the same time, drought left the  Kansas wheat  crop in the worst shape since 1996

The other big news of the week  is that the United States has now reached the its debt ceiling; the pension funds are being looted and it is probable that the debt ceiling will be raised allowing things to carry on for a bit longer, but also placing the possibility of default by the world’s largest economy on the agenda.

Meanwhile the super-rich continue their plunder and are getting richer.


Commentary from Mike Ruppert - politically, the US government and President Obama appear to be more and more out-of-touch and in recent time we have been sold the idea that the US and NATO are bombing the hell out of Libya to help a democratic rebellion; then that they have rid the world of Osama bin Laden.  Ever seen "Wag the Dog"? And now Obama has announced that they are going to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) despite the fact of ecological destruction; despite the fact that there is only 10% of estimated oil and that melting permafrost will make the process difficult.

JAPAN

Even though the consequences of the March earthquake and tsunami and the ongoing environmental catastrophe at Fukushima have completely disappeared from our headlines events in Japan continue apace.

At Fukushima the Japanese are losing the battle and there has been acknowledgement of a meltdown in the sense that the core of reactor no. 1 has melted through the containment and the fuel rods are dry meaning that radiation levels are too high for the reactors to be worked on. Meanwhile there are problems with the other reactors such as a lean of the whole structure of  reactor no.4.

This has been well documented elsewhere and I can highly recommend commentary by Arnie Gunderson of Fairewinds Associates.

Plutonium has been found more than a kilometer away from the site indicating that the surrounding area is likely to be permanently uninhabitable.

Japan has closed down another nuclear facility at Hoamaoka because of earthquake risks.

There are lots of stories coming out of Japan about energy shortages largely as a result of the accident in Fukushima. and factories have had to cut back production 

There have been consequent shortages of componentry manufactured in Japan which has affected industries in the US, Germany and China.  One example is Toyota which has cut back production of its plants in China. because of disruptions in supply lines

One plant, Renesas Electronics Corp which produces 40% of the world's automotive microcontroller chips is expected to be at 50 % capacity by mid- July.

Meanwhile Japan’s ten regional utilities more than doubled their crude oil consumption in April from a year earlier as they boosted output at thermal power plants.

Back in April Mike Ruppert gave his take on what he thought the downline effects of events in Japan might be.  Although he takes a decidedly apocalyptic view of things he may well turn out to be not that wrong, and what he said then is certainly being borne out by what is unfolding now.

CHINA

Meanwhile China, on whom we are pinning so much hope is not without its problems.

One of China’s biggest headaches is energy shortage.  There has been shortages of gasoline in both China and Russia such that both have banned exports.

In the meanwhile there are shortages of electricity in many parts of the country (Hunan is one example);  and the country's press has been full of stories such as this one on a looming energy crunch, or this report from Reuters

The other big issue for China is water and its shortage, especially in the capital Beijing. Here is an article about drought in China

In the meantime inflation is a huge problem for China and the government moved again to head off inflation by requiring banks to hold more of their deposits in reserve, the eighth such move since November, despite little evidence that measure is taming prices and worries that it is depriving needy smaller companies of capital.

One article discusses the major problems in the Chinese economy and compares this situation with that in the United States prior to the Great Depression.

1) Massive disparity of wealth, income and education

2)  Rapid industrialization and displacement of labor

3)  Opaque and misleading economic and financial data

4)  Massive build-up of leverage across the “rising class”

5)  Bubbles in both residential real estate and fixed asset/infrastructure development

6)  Accelerating and uncontrolled growth in credit

7)  Expected transference of economic growth to domestic demand.

8)  Inflation and accelerating price/wage spiral

The major ongoing story is, however likely to be one of resource shortages combined with environmental problems such as water shortages as well as climate change (drought and flood)

NORTH AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST

At the moment events in the Middle East are dominating our headlines, especially events in Libya and Syria.

Whilst the contribution of Facebook and Twitter and even Wikileaks have been given plenty of coverage, little attention has been paid to resources in general and to food in particular.

Egypt, for example was one of the major importers of Russian wheat; when the Russians banned the export of wheat after their drought and fires last summer Egypt suddenly had to find a new source of grains.  Food prices have increased hugely in Northern Africa and there have been recent articles talking about the role played by food  problems in the area

In a recent article the Military Council in Egypt has warned of economic collapse

One story that certainly has not made it into the mainstream is the decline in oil production capacity in the Middle East.  The IEA has confirmed that actual production is declining (see the recent ABC documentary).  The flow of oil in that part of the world is less than guaranteed.  The Libyans have announced they won’t be exporting any oil until the war finishes and the situation in Saudi Arabia is far from stable.

There has been an increase in violence on the West Bank and on Israel’s borders especially with the marking of the Nakba in Palestine.

There have been amazing shots of young Palestinians crossing the border from Syria into the Golan Heights as well as demonstrations in other areas

Basically the popular revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt are failing; Egypt is falling into chaos.  The question is what happens if Arab anger gets directed back towards Israel and the Camp David accord which has determined much of Arab-Israeli relations for the past 30 years is challenged? 

Reflections on James Hansen's talk

The great atmospheric scientist James Hansen - one of the first to bring global warming to the attention of the world gave a public talk in Wellington and participated in a seminar on the future of coal: and I was able to attend.

Apart from listening to the science presented by one of the world's top atmospheric scientists I was listening to someone with great humanity and compassion.

A strong point of his talk was this is an issue of intergenerational justice - and he made frequent reference to his own grandchildren.

He made no bones about the fact that the route taken by the Kyoto agreement based on "cap and trade" was a failure that has led to an increase in carbon emissions (on increase of 20 % in New Zealand's case!).

His policy suggestion of introducing a carbon tax where the proceeds are distributed directly to the population as a direct incentive to reduce carbon footprint is the only possible solution that might work.

One point that was new to me was that while it is possible to reduce other greenhouse gasses such as methane relatively quickly (say by reducing agricultural emissions) carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for a much longer period of time.  In addition it takes a long time for the effects of CO2 emissions to be reflected in changes in the ice caps and changes in climate.  This means that there are effects of emissions in the pipeline that we can no longer do anything about.  He is definitely of the opinion that reducing CO2 emissions from burning hydrocarbons was by far the most important priority; also that the effects of burning coal were greater than that of oil or gas.

My overall impression was that he seems to be making an effort to remain optimistic for the sake of his children and grandchildren; although it was also clear that was not his innermost feeling.  He responded to a question about a quote from Lloyd Geering a long the line that it may take a catastrophe to force people to make changes by saying "I hope not".

....

My main problem on listening to all of this is how to make sense of this in the context of Peak Oil and the obvious move towards economic, political and social collapse. We are simply reaching (or have reached) a point where a paradigm of Infinite Growth collides with limited resources.

Hansen seems to be saying, especially in his radio interview with Kim Hill that we need to invest in alternative forms of energy that do not emit greenhouse gasses and if we provide the right incentives this will happen.  

This seems to me to be over-optimistic for several reasons.

I recall, in the 2005 elections Jeanette Fitzsimons attempting to bring the issues of Peak Oil and climate change into the election debate.  She said we had a window of opportunity to use the oil available to produce the technology (such as wind and solar power) necessary to reduce carbon emissions.

Well, since then global oil production has certainly peaked and we have had the 2008 financial crash which has led to a situation where there is neither the energy nor the capital available to make these changes.

Not only that, but whatever technological advances are made take at least 30 years to introduce - and I don't think we have that sort of time available to us - neither in terms of climate change nor Peak Oil.

Hansen talked about nuclear power.  That is a case in point.  He talked about the technological advances; that fourth generation power plants are much cleaner. He lamented that the Fukushima accident had probably halted their further development.  Not only that, but in a world where increasing costs of oil have acted as a drag on the economy now most countries of the world are up to their eyes in debt and there is not the capital to invest in new nuclear power plants even if there were the will to do so.

In a rational world it would seem that in a world of oil production peaking and prices increasing - this might act as an incentive to move away from fossil fuels and towards alternative energy sources.

What seems far more likely to me is that Peak Oil is, along with a corrupt economic and political system killing off the economy and any possibility of a balanced, graduated move away from hydrocarbons.

In the meantime the response of governments (not least our own) and corporations is an irrational, greedy grab at whatever energy sources that are available - whether tar sands, whether lignite coal - and we know what the effects of that will be on the world's climate. 

It may well be that by the time James Hansen's grandchildren come to face the worst effects of rising sea levels and climate catastrophe that the modern industrial civilisation as we now know it may be history and those that survive the changes will be living in (to quote Jim Kunstler) 'a world made by hand'

To hear Dr. Hansen’s interview with Kim Hill click here.

Peak Oil turns bigtime in Australia

I have got this through the network - a piece from ABC in Australia on Peak Oil, so am getting it out as widely as I can.

That and more is available from the ABC website.

Chris Martenson interviewed

This is a summary for an interview of Chris Martenson by Jim Martenson of Financial Sense his latest book the Crash Course.  Available here.

The next twenty years will be completely unlike the last twenty years.

The world is in economic crisis, and there are no easy fixes to our predicament. Unsustainable trends in the economy, energy, and the environment have finally caught up with us and are converging on a very narrow window of time—the "Twenty-Teens." The Crash Course presents our predicament and illuminates the path ahead, so you can face the coming disruptions and thrive--without fearing the future or retreating into denial. In this book you will find solid facts and grounded reasoning presented in a calm, positive, non-partisan manner.

Our money system places impossible demands upon a finite world. Exponentially rising levels of debt, based on assumptions of future economic growth to fund repayment, will shudder to a halt and then reverse. Unfortunately, our financial system does not operate in reverse. The consequences of massive deleveraging will be severe.

Oil is essential for economic growth. The reality of dwindling oil supplies is now internationally recognized, yet virtually no developed nations have a Plan B. The economic risks to individuals, companies, and countries are varied and enormous. Best-case, living standards will drop steadily worldwide. Worst-case, systemic financial crises will toss the world into jarring chaos.

This book is written for those who are motivated to learn about the root causes of our predicaments, protect themselves and their families, mitigate risks as much as possible, and control what effects they can. With challenge comes opportunity, and The Crash Courseoffers a positive vision for how to reshape our lives to be more balanced, resilient, and sustainable.

John Key: "We are 100% pure"

When John Key was in London for the royal wedding he was interviewed on the BBC's  Hardtalk. During the interview Key was challenged on his assertion that New Zealand is "100% pure"

His response to the interviewer (who clearly knew his facts) opens to question whether this government is in any way capable of making the decisions needed to respond to our environmental, energy and social problems.

An abridged version of the interview covering the "100% pure" is available here; the full interviews is below.

The latest from Fukushima - partial meltdown

Yesterday the media came through with two articles, one from the Telegraph, the other from the Independent, confirming that the fuel rods on nuclear reactor no. 1 at Fukushima are exposed to  the air and the reactor is leaking huge amounts of radiation; basically there has been a partial meltdown.

I looked in vain for followup from our own NZ media - indeed from the media as a whole. Generally this slow-moving catastrophe is being ignored.

Arnie Gundersen from Fairewinds Associates is a respected independent nuclear expert who gives important updates on the crisis.

The latest from Fukushima; Reactor no. 4 leans

This is the latest from Fukushima - an interview with Dr Robert Jacobs of the Peace Institute in Hiroshima. Workers are getting one lifetime's exposure to radiation in 10 minutes.  Meanwhile there is a lean on reactor no.4 indicating instability of the building's structure; they describe the "deafening silence" from Tepco and the Japanese government

Inflinite growth paradigm meets end of cheap energy

As a non-economist I am not usually one for graphs.  However this one did make quite an impression on me. 

It shows clearly how we have left an era of economic growth and stability and are in a new era of instability.

It is 20 year chart of the US 30 Year Treasury Bond vs. a broad commodity index  It reveals how the purchasing power of the long-dated US Treasury Bond has fared against a basket of commodities over the period.

Click on the graph to enlarge

It shows how the western economic system was still in expansion, funded by cheap fossil fuels. This was round 9/11 and prior to the invasion of Iraq.

Basically paper assets are priced to reflect the belief in their future purchasing power against natural resources, energy and labour.

After 2002 comes the end of cheap energy (Peak Oil) which marks the end of economic growth in real terms.  Paper assets lose their stability and begin a period of decline.

After 2008 the economic system succumbs to its own lack of industrial growth due to the lack of availability of cheap energy. This leads to a new era of volatility in prices.

For the original article please see here.

World Food Prices Rise to Near-Record High as Inflation Speeds Up

This article shows how world food prices rose to near a record in April as grain costs advanced, adding pressure to inflation that is accelerating from Beijing to Brasilia and spurring central banks to raise interest rates.


This article from the Business Insider shows that neither corn not wheat crops are doing well in the United States

Osama bin Laden: the Fog of PR

More on how the Obama administration is trying to exploit the Osama bin Laden story....

Interview with Michael C Ruppert and Dr. Danielle Ganser

The interview with Michael C. Ruppert and Dr. Daniele Ganser is of  sufficient length for the participants to develop their ideas and to range over tops from 9/11 to peak oil, collapse and dealing with emotions such as fear.


Dr. Daniele Ganser is a Swiss historian who specializes in inter-national relations and international history from 1945 to today. His research interests are peace research, geostrategy, secret warfare, resource wars, globalization and human rights. He teaches at Swiss universities, including the history department of Basel University. His current research is focusing on the so called "war on terror" and peak oil (www.peakoil.ch)


I can highly recommend listening to this interview.


The introduction is in German but the interview is conducted in English

Osama bin Laden: the legend is dead

When the news came over that Osama bin Laden had been killed I must admit that my first thought was "how convenient" - low ratings for Obama, bad news on every front and the opportunity to take the terrorist alert up a few notches.

I found it odd that the US military was able to go into Pakistan and mount a full-scale military operation in another sovereign state, without the knowledge of the Pakistani operation.

Then there's the burial at sea - no chance now of examining DNA or examining the evidence now or in the future.

And then there's the photos of Osama's corpse that have been shown to be fake and have been circulated on the internet long before Osama's "death".

All of that has got me thinking that there might be something in the following article and perhaps we oughtn't take things at face value.

Here is a link to an al-Jazeera interview with Robert Fisk where he assesses bin Laden's significance in today's world.

This report from Russia Today describes very well all the contradicting versions of events. More from RT here with a variety of differing points-of-view.