Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts

Friday, 29 June 2018

Extreme weather: Temperature records fall around the world


A Minimum Temperature of 42.6 °C (108.7 °F) in Oman on June 26, 2018: a New World Record


You may think it’s been hot where you are, but the coastal city of Quriyat (Qurayyat) in the Middle Eastern nation of Oman established a singularly unenviable heat mark on Tuesday: a 24-hour low temperature of 42.6°C (108.7°F), including the period from local midnight to midnight. 

According to weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera, this sets a new world record for the hottest 24-hour-minimum temperature ever recorded. 

Herrera says that the previous high-minimum temperature record for any 24-hour period was 41.9°C (107.4°F), set at nearby Khassab Airport in Oman on June 27, 2011. 

That location also holds the world record for the highest overnight (12-hour) high-minimum temperature: 44.2°C (111.6°F) on June 17, 2017. (Note that the World Meteorological Organization does not maintain world record statistics for highest minimum temperature).

Denver ties all-time heat record

It's 105 in Denver! Ugh. That ties the all-time record set in 2012

Denver tied its all-time heat record at 2:20 p.m., hitting 105 for the first time since 2012, according to the National Weather Service in Boulder.

Denver hit 105 twice in June of 2012 - on the 25 and 26 - and also hit it once in 2005 and 1878.

The city also set a new heat record for June 28 when the temperature hit 100 degrees at 11:31 a.m., the National Weather Service said.

Denver's previous record high for June 28 was 99 degrees. That was set in 1986.

Along with the heat, wind and low humidity will create dangerous fire conditions throughout the state. A Red Flag Warning for extreme fire danger is in effect until 9 p.m. Tonight.



As I’m writing this Wednesday, June 27, 51 large, active wildfires are burning on more than 450,000 acres in the United States, most of them in western states and Alaska. That’s an area more than twice the size of New York City.

Overall, 2.2 million U.S. acres have already been scorched in just the first half of the year. That’s approaching the long-term average for an entire year. (For the latest statistics on large U.S. wildfires, go here.)


...shows smoke from several wildfires burning in California. The biggest is the Pawnee Fire near Clear Lake north of the San Francisco area. (In the screenshot, it’s indicated by the middle arrow.) The Pawnee Fire is now at 13,500 acres, with 25 percent containment today, up from just five percent yesterday.

“The fire is being driven by low relative humidity, erratic winds, and above normal temperatures,” according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Twenty-two structures have been destroyed so far, including 12 homes. Some 600 additional structures are threatened.

And things have really only begun to heat up. Literally.
 Those orange tones show how much average temperatures at two meters above the surface are forecast to exceed average over 10 days, as of today.

And here’s how maximum temps over the next 10 days are expected to look:





Many Upstate New York cities could see an official heat wave this weekend and early next week.

In our region, a heat wave is defined as three consecutive days with temperatures of at least 90 degrees. That's the forecast for most major Upstate cities for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. (See chart below.)

In addition, those temperatures combined with high humidity could lead to a "dangerously high" heat index, particularly on Sunday, the National Weather Service said.

"Temperatures will climb very close to record levels," the weather service said. Dew points, the measure of humidity, could reach into the 70s on Sunday, which "will produce dangerously high heat indices in excess of 100."

Some cities could break some long-standing temperature records, too. The forecast Sunday for Syracuse is 94 degrees, and the record of 91 for July 1 was set in 1954.

On Wednesday, most of Upstate will likely get about a half-inch of rain from thunderstorms. During the weekend hot spell, though, very little rain is expected.

Here's a look at the high temperatures predicted for Upstate New York this weekend.

Forecast high temperatures
CitySaturdaySundayMonday
Albany939695
Binghamton939394
Buffalo888993
Elmira949493
Poughkeepsie939695
Rochester969695
Syracuse949495
Watertown919290

Porthmadog in Wales reaches 31.9C, the hottest day of the year, with temperatures set to rise even further later this week.


A record has been set for the hottest day of the year - the third in as many days.

Porthmadog in north west Wales reached 31.9C (89.4F) on Wednesday afternoon, beating Tuesday's record of 30.7C (87.2F) in Rostherne in Cheshire, and Monday's high of 30.1C (86.1F) in London.

And the record-breaking may not yet be over for the day.

A spokesman for the Met Office said: "The temperature seen at Porthmadog will not necessarily be the highest today but it is the record so far this year."

The Met Office said temperatures are set to climb further during the week, with a possible high of 33C (91.4F) on Thursday, soaring above the UK average of 17.3C (63.1F) for this time of year.



A huge moorland fire is continuing to spread because the land is "as dry as a tinder box" and winds are fanning the flames.

The blaze covers 3.7miles (6km) of Saddleworth Moor and has been raging since Sunday night.

More than 50 homes were evacuated in Carrbrook, near Stalybridge, Greater Manchester, and 150 people affected.

One resident described seeing "ash falling like rain" and another said it "looked like the apocalypse".

Dave Keelan, director of emergency response at Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service, said 70 of its firefighters were tackling the blaze.

He confirmed talks were ongoing to see if the Army could offer extra teams, four-wheel drive vehicles and air support.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-44624021?SThisFB#




Many Irish farmers are struggling in the heatwave with one tillage farmer now concerned his income is about to be halved, as he fears he will lose 50pc of his crops in the rising temperatures.

John Murphy (37), who has a farm in Arklow, Co Wicklow, and one in Wexford, said after the severe winter, followed by the extreme temperatures, his crops - particularly barley - just won't cut the muster for sale.

That places the father of three young children in a precarious position.

"Half the crops will be a very poor yield due to the weather," Mr Murphy said. "We have been particularly badly hit by the harsh winter and then this heatwave.

"It hasn't rained for so long and for some crops, it's too late, for barley in particular. I've also less oat and no wheat.




The Latvian Crisis Management Council on June 26th resolved not to declare a state of emergency in agriculture due to prolonged drought and instead chose to define the situation as "a natural disaster of a national scale", informs LETA.

The decision about declaring the nationwide natural disaster took effect on June 26th.

Prime Minister Maris Kucinskis (Greens/Farmers) explained that the Crisis Management Council had decided that there was no need to declare a state of emergency in agriculture, considering that the consequences of drought could be handled with the help of the existing legislation.

Having examined the situation in the agriculture sector, the council decided that, instead of the state of emergency, a nationwide natural disaster should be declared as this status would be sufficient to help farmers in the given circumstances.

Agriculture Minister Janis Duklavs (Greens/Farmers) said that a natural disaster in agriculture on the national scale had to be declared to spare farmers from penalties for non-performance regarding the EU-funded projects or bank loan payments as they could then invoke the force majeure clause.

However, the decision to declare a nationwide natural disaster does not mean payment of compensations to the drought-stricken farmers, he said.

According to the prime minister, the Finance Ministry has been instructed to prepare and to submit to the government a plan for a long-term solution regarding agriculture insurance.

As reported, the Agriculture Ministry presented to the Crisis Management Council a report summarizing requests from a number of municipalities, agricultural organizations and the Latvian Association of Local Governments for declaring a state of emergency in agriculture due to drought that had lasted for nearly two months.



A drought has affected a third of Poland’s crops, the country’s new Agriculture Minister Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski said on Wednesday, ahead of a parliamentary session during which he is to propose aid for farmers.

The agriculture minister told Polish Radio that in some parts of the country as much as 100 percent of grains were damaged.

According to the agriculture ministry, of Poland’s roughly 2,500 local government districts, 2,300 have felt the effects of the drought.

Ardanowski on Tuesday urged local governments to estimate losses caused by the exceptionally hot and dry June weather.

According to state-run Polish Radio’s IAR news agency, as well as government aid, farmers and growers can also expect tax exemptions and preferential loans for boosting their business. (vb)




Flash floods have devastated for a second time in less than a year the town of Mandra in Attica, just outside Athens.

Unseasonable extreme rains- unheard of in Greece in the summer months- has left much of the Greek mainland drenched.

Flooding and rivers overflowing their banks were reported in regions throughout the mainland, including Larisa.

The town of Mandra, where 24 people lost their lives last November during torrential rains and extreme flooding, was hard hit again.

No loss of life was reported but numerous residents posted videos on Facebook that showed the force off the water that transformed streets into raging rivers.

The torrential rain of this type is uncommon in Greece especially at the height of summer, where poor infrastructure can leave citizens vulnerable to flooding.

Flash floods killed at least 24 people, made scores homeless and destroyed infrastructure in Greece after a raging torrent inundated two coastal towns west of Athens last November.





Persistent drought in the remote northwestern Chinese region of Inner Mongolia has caused a rat plague now affecting more than 4 million hectares of grassland, an area the size of the Netherlands, the official Xinhua news agency said....

Rodents are a common problem throughout Inner Mongolia's huge and sprawling prairies, and adapt relatively well to dry weather.

Citing the local agriculture department, Xinhua said late on Wednesday (Jun 27) that as much as 40 per cent of Inner Mongolia's territory had been affected by drought, causing more than 600 million yuan (US$90.92 million) in economic losses.

Since mid-June, Inner Mongolia has seen 25 per cent less rainfall and is around 1 degree Celsius warmer than the long-term average for the time of year, and nearly 35 million heads of livestock have already been affected, Xinhua said.
 
This is the latest extreme weather report available
 

In view of all this it may be time to look at the nuts and bolts of Arctic methane

Friday, 25 May 2018

Cyclone Mekunu hits Yemen

"The situation is extremely critical," eight missing hundreds of others evacuated as Cyclone Mekunu hit Yemen's island of Socotra



24 May, 2018

On May 23, NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible light image of Mekunu.
The image showed the low-level centre of circulation southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.

A band of thunderstorms in the western quadrant stretched over the island and skirted Oman’s mainland coast.

Eight people were missing and hundreds of others evacuated from their homes as Cyclone Mekunu hit Yemen's island of Socotra on Wednesday night.

Four of the missing were crew on board a boat that sank in the Arabian Sea and are suspected to be dead.

At least three vessels have gone off the radar, a source told The National.
The cyclone has caused severe flooding and damage to houses, bringing with it strong winds and thunderstorms.

"The situation is extremely critical," said the former governor of the island, Salem Abdullah Al Socotri.

"The roads are flooded, and we cannot get out of [the northern coastal town] of Hadibu to see what is going on in other areas of the island.

Also, the strong winds have intercepted telecommunications, so we are almost isolated."

Mr Al Sacotri said the operations and control room in Hadibu received information that a cargo ship sank about 80 kilometres off the shore of the island.

"According to our data, the ship was coming from Mukalla, and we still don't know whether or not the crew survived," he told The National.

The homes of some residents in Socotra have been completely destroyed after the cyclone hit the island.

"Some families who had to evacuate their homes have gone to mosques and schools for shelter because their mud-built residences had collapsed, the structures were not strong enough," Abdulrahman Juman, a Yemeni activist and volunteer, said.

Odd and Dangerous Mekunu Bears Down on Oman

24 May, 2017

This year, two tropical cyclones have sprung up in the Western Arabian Sea. A region where, according to our understanding of climate, “storms do not form.” Well, the climate has clearly changed. Because a storm is raging there now. And for Oman today, these changes bring with them serious threats to life and property.



(Discussion of how climate change has altered tropical cyclone formation and intensity dynamics in the Western Arabian Sea during 2018.)
About five days ago, tropical storm Sagar formed east of Somalia in the Western Arabian Sea near the Gulf of Yemen. The storm was notable due to the fact that it was the furthest west a storm had ever formed in this region, according to records. The storm then dumped copious amounts of rainfall over Somalia — resulting in the loss of 34 lives.

Just a few days later, a second storm, Mekunu formed in about the same region. Tracking north, it is now threatening Oman with the potential to hit category 2 intensity. Unlike Sagar, Mekunu poses a triple threat due to expected very heavy rainfall, large waves, and storm surge.
(Mekunu rages south of Oman and Yemen after forming in the Western Arabian Sea. Image source: NASA.)

The region near Salalah Oman that the storm is barreling toward — typically receives just five inches of rainfall per year. But Mekunu could deliver two to five times that amount (or more) in just a few days. Moreover, the flat coastal plain is backed by mountainous terrain to the north. The higher land produces lift that will intensify expected rainfall. And current models predict that more than two feet of water (24 inches) could fall on up-sloping regions facing Mekunu’s advance. What’s notable is that these totals keep rising and that peak local totals for the storm in the NOAA NCEP model show some ridiculous amounts — up to 74 inches (see below).

Why are peaks in this model so high? First, sea surface temperatures are very extreme throughout the region. In the immediate vicinity of Mekunu, ocean surfaces range from 30 to 32 degrees Celsius. The waters are about 1 to 2 C above normal and are thus providing Mekunu with a lot more moisture than is typical. However, the larger environment that Mekunu is feeding off of also has much higher than typical moisture loads. For one, sea surfaces east of Somalia have spiked to as much as 5 C above average recently — pumping out great loads of evaporation. Further, moisture levels over the Arabian Peninsula are high due to moisture streaming in along a rather intense subtropical Jet Stream moving over the also much warmer than normal sea surfaces in the Med. The result is a much higher than normal rainfall potential.
(Mekunu presents a very severe rainfall risk for Oman in addition to a predicted strong storm surge and very high waves. Image source: NOAA NCEP.)

Such heavy rains would flush floods of water into lowlands already confronted with high waves and rising seas. According to a recent report by Bob Henson at Weather Underground, wave heights could reach 24 feet along the coast. The same report cites storm surge expert Dr Hal Needham who states:
The significant wave height leads me to think coastal flood potential is a real threat. At some point the water from waves crashing onshore does not have time to drain before the next wave hits. My gut feeling is that we could see a noticeable storm surge that is quite dynamic, with a lot of wave action and rapidly moving water. Expect wave heights to be tremendous.

(Much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean and Arabian Seas are helping cyclones to form in atypical regions even as they are lending fuel to their intensification. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Mekunu’s intensity is certainly quite high. And it is one of a recent spate of storms to impact the region. With research showing that the intensity of storms in the Arabian Sea has increased during the past 20 year period. However, the far western formation of Mekunu and Sagar add a new twist to the story. For it appears that the zone of storm formation is also shifting westward as sea surface temperatures rise and, apparently, Jet Stream changes have the potential to deliver higher levels of atmospheric moisture to the Arabian Peninsula. All of these factors feed both storm formation and intensity potentials




Monday, 7 May 2018

MUST-WATCH interview with Robert Fisk


When I first encountered him in the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq war Fisk was published in NZ media, just about anywhere but the USA.

In today’s atmosphere you have to look to alternative sources like South American TV. The BBC and the Guardian refer to him as a Putin stooge without mentioning his name as if he was ‘He Who Cannot Be Named” Voldemort.

Fisk is not an anti-imperialist in an ideological sense but he does speak the truth about what he sees.i think he is valuable because of that.

Special Interview with Robert Fisk