Super-typhoon Nuri to hit Bring Strait

Meteorological 'bomb' is about to go off in the Bring Strait

Mashable,

5 November, 2014

Fans of The Deadliest Catch know that the Bering Strait isn't exactly a tranquil region, but what is about to happen may set a new all-time record for the strongest storm the area has seen since at least the 1950s.

In other words: Fishermen need to get the heck out of there. Now.

SEE ALSO: How Typhoon Nuri is changing the weather forecast in North America

Computer models have been signaling for days that the remnants of what is now Typhoon Nuri — once the second-most intense tropical cyclone on record this season — will undergo a transition into an extratropical storm system as it moves northeast, away from Japan, over the next few days.

As it does so, the storm will likely encounter an unusually intense North Pacific jet stream that is in a favorable position to give it a major injection of intensity — like a storm that drinks a six-pack of Red Bull.

Other factors will also aid in intensifying the remnants of Nuri.

Remarkably, the storm will undergo its second period of rapid intensification starting on Thursday, after having strengthened from a Category 1 to Category 5 tropical weather system over the weekend. The two processes are totally different, meteorologically speaking, yet the effects — a sudden ramp up in winds and waves — are similar. The sudden deepening of an extratropical low pressure system is referred to as "bombogenesis," and this storm looks like it will meet the criteria for that, and then some.

The storm is predicted to go from an intensity of about 970 millibars on Thursday down to between 915 to 922 millibars by Friday night. This animation of the European computer model projections shows the rapid transition from a compact typhoon to a massive extratropical storm over the Bering Strait:

To put that into perspective, consider that if the storm's minimum central pressure bottoms out below 925 millibars — as is currently forecast by most computer models — it would set a record for the lowest pressure recorded in the Bering Sea. if the storm's minimum central pressure bottoms out below 925 millibars — as is currently forecast by most computer models — it would set a record for the lowest pressure recorded in the Bering Sea. The current record holder is 925 millibars, set in October 1977 in Dutch Harbor, Alaska.

In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. Some projections call for the storm to hit 915 millibars or below, which would obliterate the Dutch Harbor record.

The storm will likely bring howling winds to the Aleutian island and to the western part of the Alaskan mainland. It will affect flights between North America and Asia, in part by rendering alternate airports in Alaska useless, as they are buffeted by hurricane force winds of nearly 80 miles per hour or greater. Seas are forecast to build to at least 50 feet in the southwest Aleutians, and potentially higher in the Bering Strait.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Alaska issued a briefing on Tuesday that warns the state to expect a severe storm, particularly in western regions, with hurricane force winds developing late Friday into Saturday from Shemya to Adak, along with seas building to 45 feet. The NWS said the Pribilof Islands will also be affected, experiencing high waves and winds from Saturday into Sunday, local time.

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WWIII model: phenomenal significant wave heights to 55 ft (17m) across the NW Pacific and Bering Sea from post-#Nuri

7:01 AM - 6 Nov 2014

The forecast for southwest coastal Alaska is not nearly as ominous, with high waves causing minor to moderate coastal flooding in some villages, according to the NWS.

Typhoon Nuri, along with its reincarnation as a non-tropical system, appears likely to combine with several other factors to direct multiple rounds of cold, Arctic air into the Midwest and eastern U.S. during the remainder of November.