Posts
Transcarpathia
and Transnistria SitRep 30 Aug - 05 Sep
by
"Y"
6
Sptember, 2014
The
situation in both areas is relatively stable. The sitrep is presented
in a thematic order, maintaining chronological sequence within each
theme. This should help the reader understand what is happening in
these regions
Transcarpathia
ATO
The
military units in the region continue to rely on public assistance to
acquire non-lethal equipment. A small group of six or so
pro-Ukrainian fighters known as the 'Carpathian Sich' currently
active in the ATO region has requested thermal imagers and thermal
underwear. The 128th Mukachevo mountain infantry brigade is also
short of such equipment including protective clothing, radios, first
aid supplies, fire extinguishers, power supplies and mattresses.
Multiple
public events are held locally attempting to raise funds for the
local military units. These include local collections, musical
concerts, Ice Bucket challenges and the auction of dates with
celebrities. The state has made such charitable aid exempted from
tax. It is difficult to know whether these acts reflect a real local
shortage of funds, an attempt to foster a patriotic spirit, or a
combination of the two. Given the state of the Ukrainian economy, the
former is certainly an important factor.
The
local battalion is supposedly manned on the understanding that it is
purely for local defense. A small group of about 27 individuals have
volunteered to go to the front to support the ATO. This contingent
was purely others ranks, as not a single officer volunteered for this
duty.
The
most recent official death count for Transcarpathia is only fifteen.
Another 40 injured troops are receiving treatment at the Mukachevo
military hospital. This unit has beds for 50 patients, so it is near
capacity. Several of the wounded have very severe leg injuries,
possibly requiring amputation. There are no public reports for
casualties being treated elsewhere in the region. It is difficult to
assess how realistic the official figures are given the number of
troops sent to the front is unknown. There is certainly a shortage of
commanders, APC gun operators and APC drivers.
Towards
the end of August, the 5th battalion of the Prykarpattya brigade left
the front. The 400 soldiers had been fighting for a long period
without rest under very difficult conditions. The unit was stopped by
Ukrainian security and police after travelling for 5 days from the
south-east. The soldiers made their case and were granted 10 days
leave. The commander has been detained for 2 months pending trial,
with bail of 300,000 UAH. The troops protested his arrest as they did
not consider him or themselves deserters, merely in need of rotation.
This action has influenced the behavior of other units on the front
who do not want to be treated as deserters.
The
region is supporting a small number of refugees. The number amounted
to a total of 1261 by the end of August 2014. Of these, 222
originated from Crimea, and the remainder are from the south-east of
Ukraine. The refugees from Crimea obviously have not migrated as a
result of the ATO operations. On 5 September, six fighters returned
from the ATO with an unknown number of refugees including children.
Economy
There
is low level discontent with the economy, which is probably not
confined to this region. Prices are rising whilst wages staying the
same. There is a Ukrainian joke - the local currency does not jump.
There have also been tax increases on tobacco. Given the high
prevalence of smoking in Ukraine, this is certainly not popular.
In
a demonstration of Ukrainian humor (or their lack of a sense of
irony), laws have been established allowing for the imposition of
fines to be levied for overdue payments for public services.
Energy
The
big news, fully played up in the press and on TV is the opening of a
reverse flow gas pipeline from Slovakia. This runs from Vojny in
Slovakia to Uzghorod in Transcarpathia. The Ukrainians claim this
will carry 21.5 million cubic metres (cu m) of gas per day, three
times the existing reverse flow from Poland and Hungary. The pipeline
capacity would be 10 billion cu m / year. Other analysts dispute this
figure, saying technical limits will reduce the capacity to 2 billion
cu m / year. The main problem is the lack of spare capacity in
Slovakia. A great deal was also made of the lower price charged by
Slovakia - $360 per thousand cu m as opposed to the $385 commonly
quoted as the Gazprom price.
Yatsenyuk
claims that Ukraine can import a total of 15 billion cu m / year of
gas via these reverse flow pipelines, amounting to 60% of Ukraine's
needs. It remains to be seen how realistic these figures are. If the
alternative figures quoted are more realistic, the total would be ~ 7
billion cu m / year or about 28% of the demand. Either way, Ukraine
is going to need to deal with Gazprom. Yatsenyuk also met with the
Slovakian Prime Minister Fico who opposes sanctions against Russia.
The outcome of that meeting was not reported.
A
more immediately significant change representing the reality is
illustrated by the reinstatement of daily electricity supply
restrictions. Residential users face daily loss of power for the
period 19:00-21:00. Some news sites report that cuts will occur from
08:00 to 10:00 as well.
Mobilisation
Following
the initial high levels of opposition to mobilisation, the organizers
of the current third phase stress that Transcarpathian units will be
for local service only. The authorities will not stop anyone
volunteering to go to the front. The current recruitment is for males
aged 18-60 years who are medically fit for military service. The pay
is supposedly 2000 UAH per month, rising with experience and duration
of service.
Politics
The
1150,000 Hungarian minority has attempted to increase the
effectiveness of its vote. The Hungarian block is split over 3 local
constituencies which severely reduces the possibility of
pro-Hungarian representation. The Society of Hungarian Culture asked
the Regional State Administration representative Valeriy Luchenko to
appeal to Poroshenko and Central Election Commission to establish
single mandate constituencies for the Beregovo and Vynogradiv
districts. Such constituencies exist in Kiev and elsewhere. This
request was made on the basis of EU regulations on rights of
minorities. This appeal was not accepted so the block is still split.
Commentators
expect the forthcoming elections to be complicated by the war in the
east. There is an expectation of political clashes, arson against
deputies cars, and accusations of bribery. It is clear that the
government wants to redistribute votes in order to pass laws required
to implement IMF austerity and loan payback conditions.
The
region will also be holding a number of small scale international
military exercises. The first is Light Avalanche 2014 involving
Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary & Romania. This is exercise relates to
the Vynogradiv multinational engineer battalion TISA, involving about
150 soldiers training in flood protection for the Tisza river basin.
A larger exercise, Karpaty 2014, is scheduled for the end of
September. This is a multinational mountain infantry exercise, with
2500 troops from Ukraine and a similar number from the other
participants. This will take place in the local mountains. These
exercises were obviously scheduled long before the disastrous losses
in the east and the consequent effects on troops levels. At the
moment the Karpaty exercise is still scheduled.
Propaganda
The
state and business oriented media supports the established convention
that those opposing the Kiev regime in the south-east are terrorists.
They follow the standard propaganda line that Russia has invaded and
there are 10-15,000 Russian troops in east in addition to terrorist
organizations. In contrast, the Hungarian language media describe the
people in the south-east as dissidents.
Sanctions
Local
patriotic initiatives include distinctively marking Russian-supplied
products on supermarket shelves and the use of 'No Russian goods'
stickers for other businesses. The problem with the supermarket
product approach is that, in the few images released, almost
everything ends up being labelled. The sticker idea seems to be the
bright idea of a local small business person. I suspect these are
just symbolic, patriotic feel-good actions rather than effective
actions.
Separatism
Jobbick,
the far right Hungarian political party, has expressed concerns for
the status of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. It has
established a charity in Transcarpathia aimed at raising awareness
and support for these Hungarians. The Transcarpathian authorities
consider Jobbik to be subverted by Russia, aiming to intervene in
internal affairs of Ukraine and affect its territorial integrity.
Legal actions are being taken against the charity, claiming it is
acting in violation of Ukrainian law.
The
regional business media repeats the usual anti-Russian propaganda. In
particular a report states that Russia plans to use a 'Yugoslav
scenario' at expense of Transcarpathia. Presumably this relates to
the concept of some unspecified form of federalization. This report
also mentions that some time ago, a noticeable numbers of people in
the region were speaking with a prominent Russian accent. The
implication is that these were outsiders sent in to promote the
creation of Rusyn-Hungarian autonomy, a form of separatism. One of
the leaders, Peter Gecko, is sought by the SBU charged with
incitement to infringe on territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Gecko
is reported to have been present at the recent meeting in Yalta which
focussed on means of expanding so-called "Union of the People's
Republics. The local media report includes a tantalising reference to
the Kharkiv oblast. It states that a Kharkiv National Republic was
proclaimed on 7 April. This Republic lasted only one day, before it
was halted following the arrest by the police of six dozen members of
this "Republic".
The
Transcarpathian prosecutor has opened four cases of separatism, one
of which must relate to Gecko. There are no details so far of the
targets involved in the other three cases. A working group involving
the SBU, law enforcement officers and prosecutors has been
established. It is tasked with preventing the emergence of
separatism. All of this indicates the regime is scared of further
outbreaks of separatism, and is specifically trying to suppress the
idea of a Republic of the Subcarpathian Rus.
Transnistria
ATO
The
pro-regime press and supporters talk of a second front at Odessa,
based on presence of about 1500 troops in Transnistria. The troops
form part of the post-independence peace keeping mission. They are
primarily tasked with guarding the remaining large ammunition and
weapon store (reputedly ~ 22,000 tons) at Cobasna. In the face of
rising adverse actions from Moldova, the Transnistria authorities
have called for a mobilisation within the population. The
Transnistria troop strength is estimated to be 4500-7500 including
both regular and paramilitary units. The country has a population of
about 500,000. Any forces raised by mobilisation will require
extensive training and subsequent arming. It should be noted that the
ammunition and weapons mentioned above date back to the Soviet
period, so the are probably in very poor condition. The idea of this
kind of second front is probably not realistic, at least in the short
term, as the removal of trained troops would leave Transnistria open
to re-invasion by Moldova.
These
concerns by the Ukrainian regime had been addressed by placing
military units on the coast close to the border with Transnistria.
These forces have been moved to the Donbass, in an attempt to
reinforce weak points in the front line. This has complicated the
plan, probably devised by the US, to use Moldova and Ukraine to
totally isolate Transnistria.
Energy
The
gas pipelines from Russia to Moldova pass through Transnistria. In an
attempt to separate Moldova from Russian influence, via perceived
control of the pipeline in Transnistria, a reverse flow gas pipeline
has been constructed linking Moldova and Romania. The first phase of
the pipeline, partly funded by the EU, has been completed. The price
of gas in Romania is 40% cheaper than the price charged directly by
Gazprom. It is of no surprise that the US has praised this so-called
energy diversity. It suffers from the fundamental problems outlined
above, namely a lack of excess supply in Romania and the residual
dependence of gas passing through Transnistria.
Politics
A
long-running negotiation process aimed at resolving the legal status
of Transnistria has the next meeting in Vienna scheduled for 11-12
September. This is described as a '5+2' process. It involves 5 active
entities, Moldova, Transnistria, the OSCE, Russia and Ukraine, along
with two observer states, the EU and US. These talks broke down in
2006 only to be reinstated following insistence by Russia. The
position of the EU, a supposed observer, is illustrated by their
support of Moldova, praising it for choosing the path of moving
toward the west whilst 'simultaneously keeping good relations with
the east'.
The
Transnistria representatives have called into question the
forthcoming round. They claim that a number of issues raised as a
result of actions by Moldova are not covered by the existing
framework. These actions are described as forms of economic,
information and diplomatic war. The specific actions include criminal
proceedings being initiated against Transnistrian officials, the
reuse in Moldova of frequencies allocated for the Transnistrian
telephone service and adverse economic consequences arising from
Moldova signing an EU Association Agreement.
Transnistria
states it is not is refusing to continue the 5+2 talks, rather it has
legitimate concerns that need to be addressed. Moldova states that
Transnistria is putting forward artificial pre-conditions, which only
undermines trust and complicates the process of resolving the legal
status of Transnistria.
Sanctions
The
actions of Moldova against Transnistria have been balanced by
blow-back from reverse sanctions imposed by Russia. These have
severely affected the Moldovan agricultural economy. In consequence,
Moldova has asked the EU for financial support for its farmers. The
robust EU economy will surely have no problems accommodating these
additional costs.
From a month ago
In
Transcarpathia an uprising is born against Kiev
8
August, 2014
'Pravda.ru’
reports that the actions of the protesters against mass military
mobilisation in the Transcarpathia region are turning into a full
scale uprising. Local residents are blocking the roads, stopping
trains and are taking over the control of places of strategic
importance. The town of Mukachevo is at the heart of the rebellion.
Protesters
have also taken actions in the Mukachevo region: villages of
Chervenovo, Domboki and Strabichevo, in the Beregoveregion: villages
of Gat and Muzhievo and four towns in the Hustsky region.
On
3rd of August, Dmytri Dzygovbrodsky, a blogger, published the report
of
Prime
Minister of the People’s Republic of Carpathian Ruthenia, Peter
Getsko, on the current situation in the region.“Transcarpathia is
one step away from a full-blown riot. We will witness what it will
grow into, in the next couple of days.
People of the People's
Republic of Carpathia are against the military mobilisation of its
citizens for Kiev’s fascist war. Citizens of the People's Republic
of Carpathia demand autonomy. Everything is being decided right at
this moment.
Hopefully,
a second front will be opened. I think if this was to happen,it would
terrify Kiev and force them to take a step back. Kiev doesn’t have
the resources to fight the Ruthenians and the Hungarians” -
commented Getsko.
‘BFM.RU’
reports that Alina Eprimyan, a journalist from channel ‘Russia
Today‘,
has
been detained in the Transcarpathia region by representatives of the
Ukrainian Security Service, while filming footage of a rally against
mobilization that took place in the village of Rakoshino. According
to Eprimyan, after a lengthy interrogation, all footage was
confiscated and she
was deported from the area.
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