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A few days ago the commander of the NAF, Igor Strelkov who was recently removed as commander, gave a press conference where he voiced a warning of a "fifth column" threatening Russia and urged support for Vladimir Putin
I was impressed by the fact that at the time there was so little attention was paid to this at the time. There was minimal, or no coverage in the official Russian media.
Such information as I have comes via the Saker.
These warnings are amplified from other sources. In addition, in the last day there have been so far unsubstantiated rumours that Strelkov was found hanged.
I am posting this as I find it - it is impossible to make sense of what is happening.
A question: why is RT and Russian media pushing the line of a ceasefire when it is clear that it was a fiction right from the start?
Here is the Sept 11 press conference
I was impressed by the fact that at the time there was so little attention was paid to this at the time. There was minimal, or no coverage in the official Russian media.
Such information as I have comes via the Saker.
These warnings are amplified from other sources. In addition, in the last day there have been so far unsubstantiated rumours that Strelkov was found hanged.
I am posting this as I find it - it is impossible to make sense of what is happening.
A question: why is RT and Russian media pushing the line of a ceasefire when it is clear that it was a fiction right from the start?
Here is the Sept 11 press conference
Warning to all readers
The Vineyard of the Saker,
13 September, 2014
Dear friends,
Some of you may have noticed that a few comments have been posted here accusing me of spreading the rumor of Strelkov's death. The same nonsense has also been posted elsewhere on the Internet.
Just to make things clear, I was told about these rumors this morning from several readers. I replied to them that I did not believe that this was true. The origin of these rumors might be this:
http://crimelist.ru/archives/49674-kriminalnaya-hronika-rossii
Just in case somebody removes this page, here it is:
Apparently, Wikipedia also picked up this story.
You can check for yourself what I actually posted here.
For the life of me I cannot imagine how anybody mentally sane could take a paragraph containing the following and conclude that I was announcing Strelkov's death (emphasis added)
You can check for yourself what I actually posted here.
For the life of me I cannot imagine how anybody mentally sane could take a paragraph containing the following and conclude that I was announcing Strelkov's death (emphasis added)
While I cannot prove a negative, so far NOT A SINGLE RUSSIAN OR NOVORUSSIAN SOURCE HAS CONFIRMEDTHIS including his friend el-Miurid. So I suggest that we take a deep breath, say a prayer, and wait before coming to conclusions.
Maybe a drooling idiot can, but not somebody mentally normal. Alas, it appears that drooling idiots are the least of my problems.
I am sorry to announce that I have come to the conclusion that the people "systematically misunderstanding" what I write here are neither idiots nor trolls. There is a group of individuals which have embarked on a campaign to slander and discredit me. If they only called me names, that would not be too bad, the problem is that they systematically distort what I actually write here and "creatively re-interpret" it in order to make me say things I never said. The example with the Strelkov death rumor is just the latest example of that. Then, when I prove that they twisted and misrepresented what I actually said, they say that I changed my tune and that I am a liar. Lately, they have also been hinting at some dark nefarious "agenda" of mine (-: I suppose that Wikipedia is on it too, that we are all part of the same conspiracy :-)
I suppose that this was to be expected and that the success of this blog and the community around it is making some circles very angry, though dumb jealously might also play a role.
My warning to you all, my friends and readers, to be aware of this campaign to slander and discredit me comes with a request. If tomorrow you read that I said X, Y or Z - please come back here and carefully check what I did or did not say.
My second warning is that I will not answer any strawman posts or comments. If some folks cannot read what it actually says, they need to learn that skill before reading this blog. As for those who deliberately try to twist my words, I have nothing to say to them anyway.
I am sorry to have to bring up this distasteful matter, but this latest nonsense about me spreading rumors about Strelkov's alleged suicide is really to disgusting and too toxic to ignore.
Kind regards to all,
I am sorry to announce that I have come to the conclusion that the people "systematically misunderstanding" what I write here are neither idiots nor trolls. There is a group of individuals which have embarked on a campaign to slander and discredit me. If they only called me names, that would not be too bad, the problem is that they systematically distort what I actually write here and "creatively re-interpret" it in order to make me say things I never said. The example with the Strelkov death rumor is just the latest example of that. Then, when I prove that they twisted and misrepresented what I actually said, they say that I changed my tune and that I am a liar. Lately, they have also been hinting at some dark nefarious "agenda" of mine (-: I suppose that Wikipedia is on it too, that we are all part of the same conspiracy :-)
I suppose that this was to be expected and that the success of this blog and the community around it is making some circles very angry, though dumb jealously might also play a role.
My warning to you all, my friends and readers, to be aware of this campaign to slander and discredit me comes with a request. If tomorrow you read that I said X, Y or Z - please come back here and carefully check what I did or did not say.
My second warning is that I will not answer any strawman posts or comments. If some folks cannot read what it actually says, they need to learn that skill before reading this blog. As for those who deliberately try to twist my words, I have nothing to say to them anyway.
I am sorry to have to bring up this distasteful matter, but this latest nonsense about me spreading rumors about Strelkov's alleged suicide is really to disgusting and too toxic to ignore.
Kind regards to all,
The Saker
Strelkov: from swimming with Piranhas to swimming with Great White sharks
The Vineyard of the Saker,
13
September, 2014
INTRODUCTION:
Yesterday's press conference by Strelkov is, I believe, a historical moment because it marks the move of Strelkov from the Novorussian military struggle into the much larger, and far more dangerous struggle, the struggle for the political future of Russia. This in itself is no necessarily unexpected, but the way he did it was a surprise, at least for me. But before I zoom out to the bigger picture, I think that it would be helpful to try to summarize some of the key points of his presentation (thanks to Marina, you can download the full English transcript by clicking here and the Q&A is here). Here is how I summarized what I saw as the key elements of his presentation:
External factors (staging) - symbolic message:
Yesterday's press conference by Strelkov is, I believe, a historical moment because it marks the move of Strelkov from the Novorussian military struggle into the much larger, and far more dangerous struggle, the struggle for the political future of Russia. This in itself is no necessarily unexpected, but the way he did it was a surprise, at least for me. But before I zoom out to the bigger picture, I think that it would be helpful to try to summarize some of the key points of his presentation (thanks to Marina, you can download the full English transcript by clicking here and the Q&A is here). Here is how I summarized what I saw as the key elements of his presentation:
External factors (staging) - symbolic message:
- He is clearly alive and well
- The reason for his departure was infighting inside the Novorussian leadership and the fact that he was told that supplies would only be delivered if he left.
- The photo of Putin in the back on the wall
- He is sitting behind a Russian monarchist flag on the table (and a Russian and Novorussian flag in the back (no Soviet or Communists symbols)
His
view about the ceasefire agreement:
- This ceasefire has now created military situation is now worse than this spring
- What is disgraceful is not the ceasefire by itself but "the conditions which are now being discussed in Minks"
- There is plan to blame the betrayal of Novorussia on Putin
- There are powerful interests which want a never ending war which would create a bleeding ulcer for Russia
His
description of the 5th column:
- The roots of this 5th column go back to the Eltsin years
- The liberation of Crimea took the 5th column by surprise
- The 5th column is around President
- There is a local 5th column in Donbass which has been and still is negotiating with Ukie oligarchs
- The 5th column is composed of "liberals"
- Putin is a moral threat to them because he has massive popular support
- They want to overthrow Putin
- This will be a long war on Russia
- We are dealing with another 1905 and 1917 like situation
- By saving Novorussia Russia can save itself
- Western sanctions will hurt Russia and they will use them to discredit Putin
Strelkov's
plans
- Strelkov wants to fight inside Russia in support of Putin (only option)
- Strelkov's main objective is to denounce the real traitors inside Russia
This
is my personal rendition of the key elements of Strelkov's
presentation, and I might have missed or misunderstood something, so
I therefore encourage everybody to watch
to the video again and read
the transcript.
ZOOMING OUT TO THE GREATER CONTEXT:
Before going further into my analysis of Strelkov's statements, I think that it is crucial to keep the bigger context in mind. His words are not just the words of a man speaking for the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) or a Novorussia hero, this time Strelkov is diving straight into the big and dangerous world of Russian "deep state" politics (though the term "deep state" does not really apply to Russia). So I will now return to a topic I have been covering for many years now.
Long-time readers will probably recall that I often spoke of a behind-the-scenes struggle between what I called the "Eurasian Sovereignists" (ES) and the "Atlantic Integrationists" (AI). I will not repeat it all here, but I do encourage you to read the following articles:
ZOOMING OUT TO THE GREATER CONTEXT:
Before going further into my analysis of Strelkov's statements, I think that it is crucial to keep the bigger context in mind. His words are not just the words of a man speaking for the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) or a Novorussia hero, this time Strelkov is diving straight into the big and dangerous world of Russian "deep state" politics (though the term "deep state" does not really apply to Russia). So I will now return to a topic I have been covering for many years now.
Long-time readers will probably recall that I often spoke of a behind-the-scenes struggle between what I called the "Eurasian Sovereignists" (ES) and the "Atlantic Integrationists" (AI). I will not repeat it all here, but I do encourage you to read the following articles:
The
two first articles are part of a much longer seven-part series on
Islam, but they introduce the historical context of the development
of the ES and AI factions. The next two I would consider
mandatory reading if you are not familiar with the topic and the
last one is just a more recent discussion of the role of these two
factions in the current Cold War v2. Having said that, my key
thesis is this:
The "5th column" Strelkov refers to are the very same people I call Atlantic Integrationists.
Strelkov names no names, but he describes them very accurately (see above) and he adds that they only value "money and other material resources". They are the Russian equivalent of the AngloZionist 1%ers. Their main political goal is to fully integrate Russia into the AngloZionist international system on a financial, political, economic and cultural levels. They see Russia as "European" and they believe that "the West" (i.e. the AngloZionist Empire) and Russia need to stand together against Islam, China and any other non-imperial ideology, religion, nation or alliance. They believe in capitalism and they are opposed to a "social state" (to use Putin's description of modern Russia) and they are systematically contemptuous of the "masses" though they try hard not to show this aspect of their worldview. These are the folks who gradually took power during the 1980s and who had the predatory instincts to seize the moment in the early 1990s to rapidly and ruthlessly acquire an absolutely unimaginable amount of wealth, stolen from the Russian people.
Now, it is true that due to an absolutely brilliant move by the Russian security services during the late 1990s and thanks to the chaos in which Russia was plunged, these AI (aka 5th columnists) did make a fatal mistake. Their plan was to put forward a rather uninspiring and dull bureaucrat into power and surround him by men coming from their own circles. What they did not foresee is that this rather uninspiring and dull bureaucrat would turn into one of the most formidable statesmen in Russian history - Putin - and that he would immediately set out to decapitate the top layers of the AI - the so-called "oligarchs" and the thugs who enforced their rule - and their armed branch- the Chechen Wahabi insurgency. Putin acted so fast that he rapidly ended up in full control of the so-called "power ministries" (state security, presidential security, internal affairs, armed forces, emergency services) and, which is crucial, an immense popular support. In a way, this combination of state power and popular support made Putin untouchable, but that also limited his power.
While the top and most notorious AI columnists either left Russia (Berezovsky) or were put in jail (Khodorkovsky) or died, thesystem they had created was still very much in place. Banking, the natural resources industry, the weapons trade, financial services and, of course, the media were still very much in their hands. So when the most arrogant one of them, Khodorkovsky, was jailed the two factions (ES and AI) achieved something of a compromise, a temporary ceasefire if you wish. The deal was this: first, as long as they don't try to take over the Kremlin and generally stay out of politics, the AI would be allowed to keep their wealth and continue to make huge profits; second, the top power would be shared between the ES (Putin, Rogozin, Patrushev, etc.) and the AI (Medvedev, Kudrin, Surkov, etc.).
The first big blow which Putin delivered against the AI was the firing of Serdiukov and, even "worse", his replacement with Shoigu. The second massive blow was, according to Strelkov (and I agree), the operation to liberate Crimea. According to Strelkov, this operation was a huge blow to the interests of these 5th columnist because they immediately realized that it would set Russia and the AngloZionists on a collision course. They therefore gathered all their forces to a) prevent a Russian military intervention in the Donbass and b) make a deal with the oligarchs now in power in Kiev. I fully share this analysis.
Russian vs Novorussian strategic interests
Here comes the tricky part. There are a few assumption made by many bloggers which are the result of a fundamental flaws in logic:
The "5th column" Strelkov refers to are the very same people I call Atlantic Integrationists.
Strelkov names no names, but he describes them very accurately (see above) and he adds that they only value "money and other material resources". They are the Russian equivalent of the AngloZionist 1%ers. Their main political goal is to fully integrate Russia into the AngloZionist international system on a financial, political, economic and cultural levels. They see Russia as "European" and they believe that "the West" (i.e. the AngloZionist Empire) and Russia need to stand together against Islam, China and any other non-imperial ideology, religion, nation or alliance. They believe in capitalism and they are opposed to a "social state" (to use Putin's description of modern Russia) and they are systematically contemptuous of the "masses" though they try hard not to show this aspect of their worldview. These are the folks who gradually took power during the 1980s and who had the predatory instincts to seize the moment in the early 1990s to rapidly and ruthlessly acquire an absolutely unimaginable amount of wealth, stolen from the Russian people.
Now, it is true that due to an absolutely brilliant move by the Russian security services during the late 1990s and thanks to the chaos in which Russia was plunged, these AI (aka 5th columnists) did make a fatal mistake. Their plan was to put forward a rather uninspiring and dull bureaucrat into power and surround him by men coming from their own circles. What they did not foresee is that this rather uninspiring and dull bureaucrat would turn into one of the most formidable statesmen in Russian history - Putin - and that he would immediately set out to decapitate the top layers of the AI - the so-called "oligarchs" and the thugs who enforced their rule - and their armed branch- the Chechen Wahabi insurgency. Putin acted so fast that he rapidly ended up in full control of the so-called "power ministries" (state security, presidential security, internal affairs, armed forces, emergency services) and, which is crucial, an immense popular support. In a way, this combination of state power and popular support made Putin untouchable, but that also limited his power.
While the top and most notorious AI columnists either left Russia (Berezovsky) or were put in jail (Khodorkovsky) or died, thesystem they had created was still very much in place. Banking, the natural resources industry, the weapons trade, financial services and, of course, the media were still very much in their hands. So when the most arrogant one of them, Khodorkovsky, was jailed the two factions (ES and AI) achieved something of a compromise, a temporary ceasefire if you wish. The deal was this: first, as long as they don't try to take over the Kremlin and generally stay out of politics, the AI would be allowed to keep their wealth and continue to make huge profits; second, the top power would be shared between the ES (Putin, Rogozin, Patrushev, etc.) and the AI (Medvedev, Kudrin, Surkov, etc.).
The first big blow which Putin delivered against the AI was the firing of Serdiukov and, even "worse", his replacement with Shoigu. The second massive blow was, according to Strelkov (and I agree), the operation to liberate Crimea. According to Strelkov, this operation was a huge blow to the interests of these 5th columnist because they immediately realized that it would set Russia and the AngloZionists on a collision course. They therefore gathered all their forces to a) prevent a Russian military intervention in the Donbass and b) make a deal with the oligarchs now in power in Kiev. I fully share this analysis.
Russian vs Novorussian strategic interests
Here comes the tricky part. There are a few assumption made by many bloggers which are the result of a fundamental flaws in logic:
- Russian and Novorussian interests are one and the same
- Anything supported by the AI is bad for Russia
- Putin is in full control and can do whatever he wants
- Novorussian leaders are always right by virtue of their heroic struggle
- Disagreeing with Novorussian leader is a sign of stupidity, betrayal or dishonesty (including for Putin himself)
Reality
is not quite that simple. For one thing, Russian and
Novorussian interests are not only one and the same, they are in
direct opposition on a crucial matter: Novorussia
wants full independence from Kiev (whoever
is in power) while Russia
wants regime change in Kiev and
maintain a unitary Ukraine.
Second, while the fact that Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs are
trying to hammer out a deal to stop the war and maintain a unitary
Ukraine this
might or
might not be
bad for
Russia. Now, before I get accused of God only knows what, let
me explain:
During the late 1980s and the 1990s a bizarre kind of "partial fusion" took place between the Russian mob and the KGB. I know, sounds crazy, but it is nonetheless true and yours truly has personally seen it and personally met ex-KGB officers working in the Russian mob. However, as some say, there is no such thing as an "ex-KGB" officer. Well, in reality there is, but in most cases, at least informal contacts are maintained. So here is how I would very roughly summarize this bizarre association:
In the 1980s: corrupt KGB officers realize that a lot of money can be made in the underworld and some official of the internal security branch of the KGB (2nd Main Directorate) found ways to profit from tight contacts with the mob.
In the early 1990: a lot of young and smart KGB officers realize that their skills are useless in the KGB, they resign and immediately find very good positions in the "New Russian" world (at that time 100% mobsters) and use their skills (language, education, work capability, courage) to make loads of money
These were terrible years for the KGB/FSB, but they also had one positive impact: the more corrupt and less patriotic officers left leaving many idealists behind them, idealists which would, with time, climb up the ranks.
Now here comes the really interesting part:
In the mid 1990s-2000: the successor to the KGB, the SVR and FSB came to realize that they had a fantastic network of potential collaborators in the newly created world of Russian business, finance, commerce, tourism, etc. They act on this and begin use this mostly "ex-mob now turned legit" worldwide network for state security purposes and industrial/commercial espionage. Even the military intelligence service, the GRU, begins to do the same with ex-officers now working in aerospace, electronics, communications, etc.
[Off-topic but interesting sidebar: there is another most valuable network which the SVR/FSB/GRU also began to use during this period: the huge number of Jews from Russia who emigrated to the USA and Israel. Keep that in mind when you think about Russian-Israeli relations] 2000-today: Putin and his backers begin their behind the scenes secret but ruthless war on the Atlantic Integrationists who are fundamentally oppose to the Eurasian Sovereignists who are now firmly behind Putin. Most importantly the security services who are controlled by Putin allies develop a network of potential supporters inside the basis of power of the Atlantic Integrationists. See how complex that becomes?
So while some superficial analysts are correct when they say that the Russian oligarchs are generally 5th columnists and dangerous enemies of Putin, what they are missing is that a) not all oligarchs fall into this category and b) that Putin has the means to influence or even coerce some anti-Putin oligarchs thanks to his control of the security services and their network inside the oligarchs power base.
So here is the crucial point: the relationship between the Kremlin and the Russian oligarchy is a very complex one. Yes, by and large, it is correct to say that we have Putin, the security services, the military, the common Russian people on one side and the oligarchs, the liberal intelligentsia, big business, banking, finance and CIA agents on the other. But in reality, this is a primitive model, the reality is infinitely more complex. I know I am going to get even more hate coming my way for saying that, but some oligarchs are (for whatever reason) Putin allies or Putin controlled-individuals. I have met some personally in the late 1990s and I am quite sure that they are still there. Why?
Because there is a lot of money to be made in Russia by being on Putin's side. For one thing, if you are in good terms with the Kremlin, you become untouchable for the rest of the more-or-less legal "business" world. You also get juicy contracts. And the tax authorities might not be as meticulous when you file for taxes. Again, the black-and-white Putin vs oligarchs image is generally true, but only as a primitive model.
ZOOMING BACK IN TO STRELKOV'S PRESS CONFERENCE
Let's remember where Strelkov came from. While little is certain about him, he appears to be an ex-FSB Colonel (in anti-terrorism), who fought as a volunteer in Yugoslavia, Transnistria and Chechnia. He is also a historian, a columnist and he likes to participate in military recreations. He is a monarchist, an Orthodox Christian and and admirer of the White movement during the civil war. In Novorussia, however, he entered a totally different level jumping in one rapid, gigantic most successful leap from anti-terrorism Colonel to what could be roughly described as an divisional or even army corp commander who turned a volunteer militia force into a more or less regular army. That is a huge feat: From almost nobody he became the #1 hero and commander of the entire Novorussian resistance. And yet, Novorussia is tiny compared to Russia and big Novorussian politics are tiny compared to big Russian politics. And yet, in yesterday's press conference Strelkov made yet another huge leap - he jumped from Novorussian military issues straight into the single most complex and dangerous struggle I can imagine: the secret behind-the-scenes struggle for power in the Kremlin. It is far too early to tell if this move will be as successful as his previous one, Strelkov went from swimming with Piranhas to swimming with Great White sharks, but I am cautiously optimistic. Here is why:
Strelkov's potential in the Russian struggle for power
Putin is acutely aware of the fact that his official power base (the state apparatus) is chock-full of 5th columnists. The best proof for that is that he did two very interesting things:
a) He created the All-Russia People's Front (ARPF) which unlike the official party in power, United Russia, was not created with a strong Medvedev/Atlantic Integrationist component, but was created by Putin alone. Officially, the ARPF is not a party but a "political-social movement" which is supposed to bring together a large segment of generally pro-Kremlin organizations and individuals and to provide a way for the common people to convey their concerns to Putin. In reality, however, it is also a "political party in waiting", very large, very well connected and which Putin can "turn on" at any time, especially if challenged from inside United Russia.
b) Putin's security services have contributed to the creation of a plethora of "near-Kremlin entities" (околокремлевские круги) which officially have no subordination to the Kremlin, but which can get a lot of things done without the government involved or, even, informed. These near-Kremlin entities include some news outlets, some commercial entities, a number of clubs, some youth organizations, news agencies, etc. There is no formal list, no admission procedure, no one leader. But somehow, there are always people with contacts to the security agencies near or in these circles.
This is were Strelkov fits in.Strelkov will first and foremost represent the interests of the people of Novorussia, but since he correctly identified the Russian 5th column as the main threat to Novorussia, he also is objectively becoming an ally of Putin in a common struggle against the Atlantic Integrationists. Now, let us be clear here. Strelkov and Putin will not agree on a number of issues. Strelkov clearly indicated that when he said
During the late 1980s and the 1990s a bizarre kind of "partial fusion" took place between the Russian mob and the KGB. I know, sounds crazy, but it is nonetheless true and yours truly has personally seen it and personally met ex-KGB officers working in the Russian mob. However, as some say, there is no such thing as an "ex-KGB" officer. Well, in reality there is, but in most cases, at least informal contacts are maintained. So here is how I would very roughly summarize this bizarre association:
In the 1980s: corrupt KGB officers realize that a lot of money can be made in the underworld and some official of the internal security branch of the KGB (2nd Main Directorate) found ways to profit from tight contacts with the mob.
In the early 1990: a lot of young and smart KGB officers realize that their skills are useless in the KGB, they resign and immediately find very good positions in the "New Russian" world (at that time 100% mobsters) and use their skills (language, education, work capability, courage) to make loads of money
These were terrible years for the KGB/FSB, but they also had one positive impact: the more corrupt and less patriotic officers left leaving many idealists behind them, idealists which would, with time, climb up the ranks.
Now here comes the really interesting part:
In the mid 1990s-2000: the successor to the KGB, the SVR and FSB came to realize that they had a fantastic network of potential collaborators in the newly created world of Russian business, finance, commerce, tourism, etc. They act on this and begin use this mostly "ex-mob now turned legit" worldwide network for state security purposes and industrial/commercial espionage. Even the military intelligence service, the GRU, begins to do the same with ex-officers now working in aerospace, electronics, communications, etc.
[Off-topic but interesting sidebar: there is another most valuable network which the SVR/FSB/GRU also began to use during this period: the huge number of Jews from Russia who emigrated to the USA and Israel. Keep that in mind when you think about Russian-Israeli relations] 2000-today: Putin and his backers begin their behind the scenes secret but ruthless war on the Atlantic Integrationists who are fundamentally oppose to the Eurasian Sovereignists who are now firmly behind Putin. Most importantly the security services who are controlled by Putin allies develop a network of potential supporters inside the basis of power of the Atlantic Integrationists. See how complex that becomes?
So while some superficial analysts are correct when they say that the Russian oligarchs are generally 5th columnists and dangerous enemies of Putin, what they are missing is that a) not all oligarchs fall into this category and b) that Putin has the means to influence or even coerce some anti-Putin oligarchs thanks to his control of the security services and their network inside the oligarchs power base.
So here is the crucial point: the relationship between the Kremlin and the Russian oligarchy is a very complex one. Yes, by and large, it is correct to say that we have Putin, the security services, the military, the common Russian people on one side and the oligarchs, the liberal intelligentsia, big business, banking, finance and CIA agents on the other. But in reality, this is a primitive model, the reality is infinitely more complex. I know I am going to get even more hate coming my way for saying that, but some oligarchs are (for whatever reason) Putin allies or Putin controlled-individuals. I have met some personally in the late 1990s and I am quite sure that they are still there. Why?
Because there is a lot of money to be made in Russia by being on Putin's side. For one thing, if you are in good terms with the Kremlin, you become untouchable for the rest of the more-or-less legal "business" world. You also get juicy contracts. And the tax authorities might not be as meticulous when you file for taxes. Again, the black-and-white Putin vs oligarchs image is generally true, but only as a primitive model.
ZOOMING BACK IN TO STRELKOV'S PRESS CONFERENCE
Let's remember where Strelkov came from. While little is certain about him, he appears to be an ex-FSB Colonel (in anti-terrorism), who fought as a volunteer in Yugoslavia, Transnistria and Chechnia. He is also a historian, a columnist and he likes to participate in military recreations. He is a monarchist, an Orthodox Christian and and admirer of the White movement during the civil war. In Novorussia, however, he entered a totally different level jumping in one rapid, gigantic most successful leap from anti-terrorism Colonel to what could be roughly described as an divisional or even army corp commander who turned a volunteer militia force into a more or less regular army. That is a huge feat: From almost nobody he became the #1 hero and commander of the entire Novorussian resistance. And yet, Novorussia is tiny compared to Russia and big Novorussian politics are tiny compared to big Russian politics. And yet, in yesterday's press conference Strelkov made yet another huge leap - he jumped from Novorussian military issues straight into the single most complex and dangerous struggle I can imagine: the secret behind-the-scenes struggle for power in the Kremlin. It is far too early to tell if this move will be as successful as his previous one, Strelkov went from swimming with Piranhas to swimming with Great White sharks, but I am cautiously optimistic. Here is why:
Strelkov's potential in the Russian struggle for power
Putin is acutely aware of the fact that his official power base (the state apparatus) is chock-full of 5th columnists. The best proof for that is that he did two very interesting things:
a) He created the All-Russia People's Front (ARPF) which unlike the official party in power, United Russia, was not created with a strong Medvedev/Atlantic Integrationist component, but was created by Putin alone. Officially, the ARPF is not a party but a "political-social movement" which is supposed to bring together a large segment of generally pro-Kremlin organizations and individuals and to provide a way for the common people to convey their concerns to Putin. In reality, however, it is also a "political party in waiting", very large, very well connected and which Putin can "turn on" at any time, especially if challenged from inside United Russia.
b) Putin's security services have contributed to the creation of a plethora of "near-Kremlin entities" (околокремлевские круги) which officially have no subordination to the Kremlin, but which can get a lot of things done without the government involved or, even, informed. These near-Kremlin entities include some news outlets, some commercial entities, a number of clubs, some youth organizations, news agencies, etc. There is no formal list, no admission procedure, no one leader. But somehow, there are always people with contacts to the security agencies near or in these circles.
This is were Strelkov fits in.Strelkov will first and foremost represent the interests of the people of Novorussia, but since he correctly identified the Russian 5th column as the main threat to Novorussia, he also is objectively becoming an ally of Putin in a common struggle against the Atlantic Integrationists. Now, let us be clear here. Strelkov and Putin will not agree on a number of issues. Strelkov clearly indicated that when he said
"No matter how critical I am about certain internal or external policy decision of president in conditions of war started against us, I consider it necessary to support him as the only legitimate superior commander the main guarantor of freedom and independence of the state"
The
fact that he concluded that Putin must be supported does not
change the fact that he is clearly very critical of some Putin
decisions. My guess is that the obvious areas of disagreement
are:
a)
The ceasefire and subsequent negotiations
b)
The fact that Putin does with with some Russian oligarchs
c)
That Putin wants a united Ukraine
These
disagreements are normal and should not be interpreted as the sign
of some kind of opposition. Again, Novorussia and Russia
simply have different interests.
But
where Strelkov and Putin are in full agreement is the need to crush
the 5th column. Putin was the first to speak about a "Russian
5th column" (when he addressed the Federal Assembly) and
Strelkov picked up his expression. This 5th column of Atlantic
Integrationists are a mortal danger to both Putin and Strelkov
and, as Strelkov correctly points out, Putin is a mortal danger to
them. When Strelkov speaks of a "Putin revolution"
and of a "Russian Spring" he is referring to the very same
struggle which I in the past described as a struggle of Atlantic
Integrationists against the Eurasian Sovereignists. The labels
are different, but the process described is the same one.
In
this context Strelkov could become a very powerful ally for Putin.
By speaking up for Novorussia Strelkov is also very clearly
promoting the same ideology, the same worldview, as Putin. In
fact, I recommend to you all to take the time and listen to (or
read)
- Putin's Address to the Federal Assembly (March 18th)
- The press conference by by Alexander V. Zakharchenko (August 26th)
- Yesterday's Strelkov's press conference (September 11th)
Putin,
Zakharchenko and Strelkov all three fully realize that what is going
on is nothing shot of a war on Russia, but waged, at
least for the time being, by non-military means. All three
know that the biggest threat to Russia is an internal one. But
all three can claim that the other two do not speak for him.
After all, one is the President of Russia, the second one is a top
representative of Donetsk and Novorussia, while the third one is,
technically speaking, a retired officer and a private individual.
Yet all three together are politically encircling the Russian 5th
column into a "political cauldron" in which they either
support Putin or look like traitors. A potentially very
effective technique.
The second role of Strelkov is to denounce and discredit the Putin-bashers who are constantly declaring that "Putin is backstabbing or betraying Novorussia". I predict that in a near future the very same circles who until now had taken the position that Putin is a villain and Strelkov a hero will declare that Strelkov is a villain and a traitor too. Some of these guys are manipulated by western PSYOP specialists, others are simply paid by them, but their goal is to convince the world that Putin is the bad guy and that a "real" patriot needs to replace him. In other words, that Russia can only be saved by making the AngloZionist dream of a regime change in Russia come true. But then, these are the very same people who wanted to save Novorussia by making the other AngloZionist dream, of having an overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass, also come true. My advice in regards to such "sorrow-patriots" as they are called in Russia is simple: beware of those who want to save Russia by making an AngloZionist dream come true. If you keep that in mind, the enemies of Russia will be fairly easy to spot :-)
CONCLUSION
I was amazed and tremendously encouraged by Strelkov's very sophisticated presentation of his position yesterday. Though this might be too early to conclude, and I might be uncharacteristically optimistic about this, I believe that Strelkov has the potential to become the Novorussian leader I was hoping would emerge. If that is so, then I will gladly plead guilty of having underestimated him. Still, I will also admit that I am very concerned for him. The fact that apparently the Russia media has given his press conference little or no attention combined with the rumor that he had killed himself is a powerful message sent to him by the 5th column who is showing how powerful it still is. In particular, I consider the rumor about his suicide as a very serious death threat. Even worse, and maybe these are my paranoid inclination speaking here, there are a lot of people on both sides who might be interested in seeing Strelkov killed. The Atlantic Integrationists and their 5th column would want him dead because he is so openly denouncing them, but make no mistake, there could also be Eurasian Sovereignists who might want him dead to have him as a martyr and symbol of Russian heroism. Is that cynical and ugly? Yes. And so is the struggle for power in Russia. Most people in the West have no idea how ruthless this struggle can be. Unlike Putin, Strelkov is not protected by an extremely powerful state security apparatus and, considering that he can be hit from either side. He better be very *very* careful.
Just for accepting to play the role he is playing now (and he, being an ex-FSB colonel, fully knows the risks) I consider him a hero and he has my sincere admiration. "They" will try to use him, threaten him, manipulate him, discredit him and use every dirty trick possible to either control him or crush him. Truly, his fate is already a tragic one and his courage remarkable. Fighting the Ukie Nazis, the Chechen Wahabis or the Croat Ustashe was a relaxing vacation compared to the kind of "warfare" going on in the struggle for the control of Russia. Since Russia is the de-facto leader of both the BRICS and the SCO the struggle for Russia is really a struggle for the future of the planet. I believe that Strelkov understands that.
The Saker
The second role of Strelkov is to denounce and discredit the Putin-bashers who are constantly declaring that "Putin is backstabbing or betraying Novorussia". I predict that in a near future the very same circles who until now had taken the position that Putin is a villain and Strelkov a hero will declare that Strelkov is a villain and a traitor too. Some of these guys are manipulated by western PSYOP specialists, others are simply paid by them, but their goal is to convince the world that Putin is the bad guy and that a "real" patriot needs to replace him. In other words, that Russia can only be saved by making the AngloZionist dream of a regime change in Russia come true. But then, these are the very same people who wanted to save Novorussia by making the other AngloZionist dream, of having an overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass, also come true. My advice in regards to such "sorrow-patriots" as they are called in Russia is simple: beware of those who want to save Russia by making an AngloZionist dream come true. If you keep that in mind, the enemies of Russia will be fairly easy to spot :-)
CONCLUSION
I was amazed and tremendously encouraged by Strelkov's very sophisticated presentation of his position yesterday. Though this might be too early to conclude, and I might be uncharacteristically optimistic about this, I believe that Strelkov has the potential to become the Novorussian leader I was hoping would emerge. If that is so, then I will gladly plead guilty of having underestimated him. Still, I will also admit that I am very concerned for him. The fact that apparently the Russia media has given his press conference little or no attention combined with the rumor that he had killed himself is a powerful message sent to him by the 5th column who is showing how powerful it still is. In particular, I consider the rumor about his suicide as a very serious death threat. Even worse, and maybe these are my paranoid inclination speaking here, there are a lot of people on both sides who might be interested in seeing Strelkov killed. The Atlantic Integrationists and their 5th column would want him dead because he is so openly denouncing them, but make no mistake, there could also be Eurasian Sovereignists who might want him dead to have him as a martyr and symbol of Russian heroism. Is that cynical and ugly? Yes. And so is the struggle for power in Russia. Most people in the West have no idea how ruthless this struggle can be. Unlike Putin, Strelkov is not protected by an extremely powerful state security apparatus and, considering that he can be hit from either side. He better be very *very* careful.
Just for accepting to play the role he is playing now (and he, being an ex-FSB colonel, fully knows the risks) I consider him a hero and he has my sincere admiration. "They" will try to use him, threaten him, manipulate him, discredit him and use every dirty trick possible to either control him or crush him. Truly, his fate is already a tragic one and his courage remarkable. Fighting the Ukie Nazis, the Chechen Wahabis or the Croat Ustashe was a relaxing vacation compared to the kind of "warfare" going on in the struggle for the control of Russia. Since Russia is the de-facto leader of both the BRICS and the SCO the struggle for Russia is really a struggle for the future of the planet. I believe that Strelkov understands that.
The Saker
The New Round of Sanctions – The Pre-War Period
13 September, 2014
Original: El Murid (Anatoliy Nesmeyan) LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov
The latest round of sanctions imposed by the European Union has essentially put an end to any discussion about the possibility of an agreement with the West. Notwithstanding all the concessions and betrayal.
The very fact that Russia faltered in Ukraine and did not defend its national interests, abandoning the Donbass region and its people to the mercy of those bent on tearing them apart, and accepting loss of face on the part of the Russian leadership and frank betrayal—all this only convinced the West that it can dictate its will by continuing to increase the pressure.
It is difficult to tell what was it that the traitors promised to the President, but it is already obvious that they deceived him. There will be no reconciliation. The problem is that now the Western pressure has ceased to have a purely Ukrainian dimension. Sanctions and their tightening are aimed exclusively at fomenting a schism in the Russian elite, at infringing on the interests of one of its parts and at whipping up an early coup.
What is at stake now is no more and no less than the head of Putin himself—no other outcome will satisfy the West. Already after Crimea, the frightened Euro-American elite had resolved that there can be no dealing with Putin’s Russia and for that reason sanctioned the plans for his overthrow. For now—by means of a coup d’état at the hands of aggrieved and disadvantaged oligarchs. If that does not work—through a military conflict.
It appears that the Russian leadership understands this, and that yesterday’s regular exercises of the troops of the Eastern Military District, which required them to be brought to full combat readiness, is a demonstration of the fact that Russia is ready for such a development of the situation. The only question that remains is whether she is ready for betrayal.
The past three to four years have provided a wealth of material for the study of possible scenarios of war with Russia. Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Ukraine – these are countries where the West achieved its objectives through mutiny of one of the parts of the indigenous elite, following which it supported the arrival of democracy to these wild outskirts of civilization. In Libya this was facilitated by NATO’s bombers; in Egypt – by mass funding of terrorist groups from the pockets of western corporations in Qatar; in Yemen, the wager was placed on tribal leaders and on the launch of the “Al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula” project; in Ukraine – well, here, everything is right before our eyes.
In Syria, this scenario malfunctioned. The Syrian elite refused to betray Assad, as its interests are tied to Syria, and the business and the welfare of its members are based on a united and stable Syria. That is why individual traitors in the leadership of the country could not undermine its stability, and the West was forced to rely on the terrorists of Al-Nusra, ISIS, the Islamic Front, the Farouq Brigades, the Free Syrian Army, and many others. Now Obama is preparing to bomb the Syrian territory under the guise of fighting the Islamic State. There is no doubt that the range of the bombing campaign will extend much further, and that, if Russia overlooks the bombing of Ar-Raqqa, in one or two months Obama’s falcons will start bombing Damascus. If Russia does not arrange for immediate deliveries to Syria of Air Defence systems capable of taking down the American terrorists, we will be faced with a sharp aggravation of the situation in the south in addition to the problems in Ukraine.
Russia stands before the same choice—first we can expect a coup. Unlike Syria, a significant part of the contemporary Russian elite are common compradors that have nothing in common with the country other than the fact that it is from Russia itself that they pump their subcutaneous wellbeing. It is these people that their Western owners are now beginning severely to pressure, using sanctions as a whip so as to encourage them to organize a coup. And the longer they delay, the stronger and fiercer the sanctions will become.
However, the sanctions have yet another aspect to them—in the event the coup d’état fails, the West wants as much as possible to weaken the leading sectors of the Russian economy, so as to ensure that Russia is minimally ready when she faces the possible armed conflict. Speaking about the military conflict, we can now say with confidence that the ideas of George Friedman about using and unifying the wars in Iraq and Ukraine will become the basis of the military intervention against Russia. Whether this will be done through a war in Crimea or an armed conflict in Chechnya is a purely situational matter. It is certain that different scenarios are being formulated, and that they will be launched either immediately following the coup d’état attempt or synchronously therewith.
The events of the past few years have very clearly demonstrated that the West has wagered on the destruction of the existing world order. It is not satisfied with the emergence of new centres of power, which places it on the precipice of a civilizational catastrophe. The sweet life of the “golden billion” has always been premised on the slavish existence of the rest of the world, who worked for their masters. The new centres and growth points, the new associations of Third World countries that are gaining momentum make the concepts of neocolonialism worthless—and the West will go to war. To a large degree, it simply has no other choice.
The colour revolutions gave the United States and its allies an instrument, using which they expect to defeat their strategic rivals without bringing about direct confrontations that threaten total destruction. By spreading around the world, the cancerous tumour of democracy and human rights, in their Western interpretations, is preparing the groundwork for colour revolutions of varying degrees of ferocity.
The pressure of sanctions on Russia, which no one is any longer interested in stopping, transitions the level of confrontation to a qualitatively different state. Evidently, there is a certain point of no return, upon achieving which a rollback is no longer possible. There is a deep suspicion that we had already passed it, casually and imperceptibly. Most likely, this point can be considered to be Russia’s refusal to fight for Ukraine. The May of 2014, when quite inexplicably the people of the Donbass region were simply betrayed, can be considered such a point – the West received proof that it had the ability to force its interests. Who was it in the Russian elite and the state apparatus that exerted pressure on or deceived the Russian President – the latter knows best. But these are the same people that will stand behind the coup.
If we have entered the pre-war period, then the logic of our behavior must also become other than in peacetime. The slightest hint of the possibility of a coup must be eliminated. People who would betray and sell the country must be removed from power. They must be deprived of the tools of their influence. Then the West will be left with only the military option – a path that it fears. A path that affords it far fewer chance than a betrayal.
The Purge is coming. Evgeny Fedorov
A psychological shift has begun in Russia, where the visible catalyst has been the war in Donbass, explains Evgeny Fedorov, a Deputy in the Russian Parliament
A
psychological shift has begun in Russia, where the visible catalyst
has been the war in Donbass, explains Evgeny Fedorov, a Deputy in the
Russian Parliament.
Within the ruling political and business elite a split has appeared, where some, by their basic survival instinct, have chosen to support Putin's path of national sovereignty, while the others are expected to either join them or be purged (13:54). The mass media, on the other hand, is working against the nation (11:13), he claims.
Within the ruling political and business elite a split has appeared, where some, by their basic survival instinct, have chosen to support Putin's path of national sovereignty, while the others are expected to either join them or be purged (13:54). The mass media, on the other hand, is working against the nation (11:13), he claims.
In detail:
The real reason why Igor Strelkov resigned from his position as Defense Minister of the Donetsk People's Republic (04:05) and why national structures have not formed in Donbass, despite their declarations of sovereignty in May 2014 (01:21).
Legislation is being prepared for ‘mandatory de-offshoring’ of supposedly Russian corporations, 3/4 of which have a complex foreign ownership structure (23:13). Non-compliance will mean asset seizure.
Other essential and inevitable measures include nationalization of the Central Bank (28:34), breaking the tributary link with foreign central banks, and lowering interest rates to facilitate industrialization and job-creation.
The liberation movement is publishing a kind of “5th column assessment card”, a formula by which anyone's actions and position can be assessed objectively (18:27 & 43:57).
While the technology of Orange Revolution against Russia is stuttering, Fedorov warns of the consequences of visible NATO troops in Ukraine (39:32), even if ostensibly only for ‘exercises’: the point of no return is passed and increasingly visible pressure upon Russia to surrender and be subordinated is now having the opposite effect – strengthening support for sovereignty.
The spiritual reason why a series of attempts by the West to conquer Russia have failed, including 200 and 400 years ago (35:45).
English subtitles. Edited version (44:56).
Russian original (1:31:35) : Евгений Фёдоров 3 сентября 2014 Познавательное ТВ.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFWGMm...http://poznavatelnoe.tv/fedorov_2014-...
Evgeny Fedorov is a Deputy of the State Duma and the coordinator of the National Liberation Movement for restoring sovereignty of Russia. http://eafedorov.ru/
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