Interpretations of the "truce"

If you haven't picked it up yet there are are arguments going on between people who overall approve of Putin's policy towards the crisis in Novorossia and those who regard Kremlin policy as treachery and Putin as an "appeaser".

I don't adopt either extreme view and bring both sides of the "argument" so you can get a sense of the different factions that are forming inside the resistance

Colonel Cassad's first rate analysis of the war in Ukraine: it tells the truth as it is.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1773476.html#cutid1

The root problem of the troubles with Putin's, Lavrov's ad Surkov's politics of "big [and self-defeating] bargain," "dithering," and "oscillations" is, as I see it, the obvious elitism of this politics as opposed to the principles of "narodnaya vlast" (people's power). In this politics that relies on (well behaving) oligarchs, bureaucrats, and political managers, people (whether in Russia or Novorossiya) and people's power are barely factored in. This hubris of power is morally inadequate and politically suicidal.

Colonel Cassad also reveals the fact that excellent analyses of the Saker has also been accompanied with excellent disinformation covering up the policy of the "great [and suicidal] bargain" which Putin, Lavrov, and Surkov tried to implement based on decision from April 24.

--Vladimir Suchan

The article below is from, I would say a semi-Marxist point-of-of-view and the website has the following slogan:

"The mouthpiece of totalitarian propaganda"

"Рупор тоталитарной пропаганды"

About the "truce"

Про "перемирие

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1773476.html#cutid1

Via Yandex Translate

In General, of course it is not entirely clear why so much surprise at such text "truce" and its results.

1. About the political background of replacement manual DND and LNR I July and August have written several times, especially in the materials associated with attempts to neutralize strelkov. In the end, what was planned in the beginning of July, trying to realize in the beginning of September. Incapable of reaching agreement pushed aside, the rest hung on strings of supply - if someone does not understand yet, the delivery of humanitarian assistance to those or other commanders, have indirect control of the political processes in the Donbass. Who humanitarian aid gets something done, and who does not receive those in the best case on the side. With certain times, the spout supply humanitarian aid arbitrarily rigged in the interests of some field commanders, and block those shows obstinacy. So actually going to increase the manageability of processes from Moscow.

2. Moscow and in the spring of 2014 does not have a coherent strategy in the Donbass and acts situational. This is because scheduled in early March, the line on the big new Russia, with troops for its security after April 24 (when this decision refused) ordered to live long. But since the uprising is already the de facto was in full swing, the Kremlin faced an unpleasant dilemma - from troops under the threat of direct confrontation with the United States declined from full discharge of Novorossiya, too, had to be abandoned because of the implications for inner peace in the Russian Federation were considered unacceptable. In the end, was selected partial option, when one hand fed militias, and the other tried to negotiate with the Ukrainian oligarchs (bypassing USA) about stopping the process.

3. Negotiations continued during June, while the militia stretched thin trickle of humanitarian aid. The battles were generally slow (compared to July and August), hand pottered about trying to find a compromise, but to reach him failed. During this time, with Akhmetov, the junta passed Mariupol, Donetsk did anything (by pressing business, the division of powers, the struggle for humanitarian aid, the drafting of the constitutions of varying degrees of insanity) but not the war. Shooters, which appeared in Slavyansk in the calculation of the troops (which never happened) and sitting on a key transport interchange in the rear of the troops of the junta protecting the border against a possible invasion of Russian troops, frankly "sad", while increasing the troops of the junta continued to wrap around Slavyansk, preparing for Strelkova boiler.

4. Then there was the well-known events - July 1, began the offensive junta, Slavyansk got into the operational environment in Donetsk intensified work on the surrender of the city, Shooters, after consultation with Moscow goes from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, comes with 2000 soldiers in Donetsk, there immediately begin to fly from their posts Pozhidaev, Khodakovsky, Lukyanchenko. Later went Putilin. After this war went quite seriously, no joke - sacrifice became a truly mass destruction on this scale, was used almost that can be applied. A failure to agree, naturally led to attempts junta to win the war purely power means, what the junta was close in the first half of August, when, after more than a month of bloody fighting, its subsidiaries, was rolled out on the streets of Shakhtersk and red Beam. But as we know, this did not happen and the new Russia survived.

5. However, after coming Strelkova in Donetsk, by increasing the density of the military orders, the militias were able to release power and hold the junta first large boiler, which ended with a Grand disaster with thousands dead and missing, and more than a hundred killed and captured by the militia armored vehicles. At the same time, the initiators of the negotiations with the junta (direct contacts were made as Surkov himself and his people and customers - Russian oligarchs like Friedman and former members of the so-called Family like Voloshin continued negotiations with Akhmetov and Poroshenko (Kolomoisky as the development of its conflict with Poroshenko, fell from the number of potential participants of the negotiations and Russia and Poroshenko now Globat joint efforts Benya was not needed, Benya will become the scapegoat of the Civil war).

The main interest of those who is Surkov was to avoid direct confrontation with the United States that threatened their assets in the West and the ability to conduct business there. The boundary condition was preventing full discharge, what first struck by Putin, which would explain why when all ur pathetic-rhetoric, Russia openly over and over again. Ukraine - Yushchenko put, Yanukovych overthrown, and here and Novorossia passed). So while Ginobili Strelkova in favor of trying to come to terms Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs, tap "Voentorg" began to open, but strictly homeopathic doses.

7. It was enough that the militia bleeding resisted the attack of superior forces junta, slowly retreating to the key position - taking on the road Lisichansk ledge, Debaltsevo, Saur-Grave. All this is quite reasonably led to Augustowska crisis, when using a foothold in Debaltsevo, the junta tried to achieve a decisive victory, coming up to her at arm's length. It is possible that if the junta did not plan all sorts of nonsense in the Perekop and on the border with Pridnestrovie, and used troops standing there in the Donbass, they would probably enough to still cut off from DND LNR. But it did not happen. In Moscow came the realization that the next do not delay, therefore, was made operational replacement guide DND and LNR, more manageable people. Of change with a view to negotiations with the junta. The main spring replacement was humanitarian aid, the same Strelkova quite clearly put a condition that either you go or your troops will not receive assistance. It is quite clear that chose Shooters. Private contractors are still a few days before the resignation was an open text says - cargo Strelkova not to ship. 

Because even then it was decided to open a "red spout Voentorg" on the full, the curators of the Ukrainian direction, were not interested in Lavra got Strelkova, who already had 3 months to successfully defend Slavyansk, and then more months and Donetsk agglomeration. Therefore, just before the beginning of the counterattack, followed by Bolotov (there were both political and some not political reasons) and Boroday, left and Strelkova. Literally within days, the hot water from the "red spout valorga" beginning to digest in a rapidly emerging boilers part of the junta that led to the universal apocalyptic picture of the burned bodies, burned-out tanks and other equipment - loss junta in a few days was increased tenfold, and the front line began to gain more and more threatening shape.

8. The junta this point, frankly missed and despite threatening situation, continued with persistence worthy of a better cause, to try to break the defense of the army of the new Russia under Ilovaisk, doing the same thing the Germans did in Stalingrad. This ended in a terrible accident and the collapse of the southern Front. "Red spout Voentorg" role played excellently and the junta already openly began to beat in many boilers, where the forces of the army of the new Russia, where the forces of merchandisers from Voentorg". But officially no "merchandiser" is not and was not. The junta in the South rolled up to Mariupol, passed the airport Lugansk, Lutugino, almost passed Debaltsevo and on the agenda was a question about the withdrawal of troops of the new Russia to the operating room. Russia also successfully used a welcome opportunity failed provocation of the downed Boeing, which was hit by the junta, but not been able to properly put the blame for this on militias and Putin. So while the junta was screaming that "Voentorg" very conscience lost, Russia naturally translated all the arrows on Boeing and the junta, resulting in a slim information line of the West in relation to the new Russia, was undermined by this failed provocation, which hardly now hushed.

On the agenda was the storming of Mariupol, clear Debaltsevo, the lesson of Happiness, as well as the impacts on the plant and Severodonetsk, as well as the attack on Konstantinovka. Before the junta was looming threat of war, amid the dismal situation in the rear.

C the end of August-beginning of September, it became obvious that the military means to destroy the new Russia will not work, the junta frankly was spitting blood and at the same time the US and its satellites began to tighten its policy in relations with Russia. Just like in April, began attempts to bypass the U.S. to stop the process, fixing some acceptable results (which are trying to cover up display phantoms like "single Pro-Russian Ukraine and various rotten talks about the "federalization"). If you'll notice, at Minsk negotiations, the US in fact were not provided, but it depends on them how to behave junta. By September, Akhmetov has been able to fully strengthen its position in the structures of DND (Novorossiya whatever it was - everything will be in order) and to establish a dialogue with Moscow. All nedogovorosposobnostyu people were removed from key positions, so in Minsk and had started negotiations, which are designed not so much to determine the future of the new Russia, and to help Russia avoid direct confrontation with the United States bringing the war on the brakes and avoiding sanctions affecting our everything Gazprom, oil and banking sector, as well as some of the oligarchs. 

From Zakharchenko and Carpentry there is little that is tied to the delivery of humanitari and if need be, they too will quickly be replaced by more flexible people. The junta of course jumped at the opportunity, as an offensive army Novorossia successfully developed by military junta to stop him could not, and the attack is not yet exhausted and could successfully evolve for at least another 5-7 days with the release of large areas and large cities. A military junta certainly benefit from this break - she hastily plug holes on the front and drives down the reserves, passing through the local occurrence, like the attack on almanova order to cut Novoazovskiy grouping army Novorossia from the main forces North of almanova. Russia also received desired, in the form of a reduction of the rhetoric of the US and its satellites and delay sanctions. Member of the militia or the Nazi guards who didn't understand why the truce - here it is clear no one asked. Within the so-called "big politics," it consumables on the "chess Board". One month can bleed in the defense, waiting for them will reveal the tap "Voentorg", the other is to inhale hundreds of boilers cursing Poroshenko and Mat.

10. However, despite the political truce, war as such has continued, because the logic of the conflict requires his permission it by military means. Inertia war caused all the recent shootings, shelling and fighting. While the junta openly and publicly demonstrates that openly uses the "truce" to build strength for the transition to a new offensive. US look at it with approval, as a military solution to the problems of Novorossia and the final defeat of Russia in the struggle for Ukraine, in their national interests. Absolutely no difference in what condition is the junta - while it is in power, it will be used against Russia. The suffering of the population, casualties among the soldiers and the destruction of infrastructure - from the point of view of the United States are insignificant cost. So from a military point of view, only the complete destruction of the fascist junta is the best guarantee of ending the war.

In the manual of Novorossia understand it, but I can't do anything, as they depend on the political line supervisors of Ukrainian politics and humanitarian supplies.

Hence the silly statement that "we thought that the junta will be possible to observe a truce, and it does not comply with " Oh what a bad fascist junta". Of course this kindergarten seriously discredits as a military-political leadership of the DND and the Russian policy in the new Russia. The junta that moment caught and frankly enjoys, but it has one problem - she can't by force to solve the problem of Novorossiya, if the star-spangled hand sanctions will not fall on the "red spout Voentorg" and carefully it will not overlap giving the junta needed time. 

But it's to launch an offensive of course possible, but extremely high risk of getting no flags junta over Donetsk and Kiev, and thousands of dead and hundreds of broken-down tanks and APC-s with another blow that Putin kills patriots of Ukraine and Poroshenko with the generals all betrayed.

Both sides can not yet be determined with a resolution of the crisis, the war continues on as usual, where the resumption of full-scale hostilities looks inevitable, because the US will push the junta to power the destruction of the new Russia, and Russia in turn once again fall into the same plug decisions between power script (troops or doing merchandiser" it's not so important - it is the only method to accomplish it) and discharge the new Russia (termination of military support, the agreement on "United Ukraine" and twisting of the hands of the warlords army Novorossia that will start to ask "tough questions"). The main difficulty negotiators is that the standard reaction militias on the proposal for a "single Pro-Russian Ukraine" - "What in Dongpu Express Ukraine?!" For United Ukraine" from Russia can fight except that polittehnologi in Moscow and the staff Surkov which this nonsense translates to the masses, militias fighting there for quite another.

Some still stubbornly can't understand that the war junta with the new Russia, this is only one dimension of the conflict without resolving the contradictions between the USA and Russia, full of peace will not be there. Therefore, Minsk negotiations and pachana paper, which was signed there, it's just another attempt to jump out of the same unpleasant fork decisions that still need to take.

Actually that is why I did not rush to join the crowd with cries of "the new Russia merged" or recite mantras about GPP. The final choice remains to be done and the current efforts will depart from it, only worsen the conditions in which this selection will be made.

New Russia in some form certainly will. But whatever it will be, will be decided in the coming weeks, when it becomes clear the final choice of Russia in the Ukrainian question.

The Novorussian ceasefire agreement + open thread

Vineyard of the Saker,

7 September, 2014

Dear friends,

I had seen the Russian text on the OSCE page, and now Gleb Bazov sent me his translation. To say that I am under-impressed by this text would be an understatement. I would also note that many well informed sources spoke of a 14 points plan. Are two more points held in secret? What is certain is that this documents is imprecise, nebulous, ambiguous and otherwise vague to such a degree that I would argue that it is basically impossible to implement. Knowing the degree to which Russian diplomats are normally maniacally fastidious and pedantic with words, I can only conclude that they have deliberately sabotaged this agreement and that it's sole use what to deflate the bellicose mood of the NATO summit. But as a basis for a real ceasefire it is useless, nevermind a real negotiation for a final status agreement or peace treaty.

The first rule for any kind of ceasefire is to provide a painstakingly accurate timetime for the implementation of unambiguously defined and verifiable de-escalation measures followed by a precise schedule for confidence building measures subject to mutual verification. There is nothing like that here. Points 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 mean absolutely nothing, the rest are vague and ambiguous at best. This is one of the worst ceasefire agreements I have ever seen.

Either way, numerous reports seem to indicate that the cease-fire has already been violated in many locations. Some kind of deal will eventually be made, and maybe this symbolic first step is, at best, a way to get the process going. But in itself, this document is useless.

The Saker

PS: I will be gone all day tomorrow. I leave you with an open thread.

Protocol of the Trilateral Contact Group – Minsk, September 5, 2014

PROTOCOL

on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group

with respect to the joint steps aimed at

the implementation of the Peace Plan

of the President of Ukraine, P. Poroshenko,

and the initiatives of the President of Russia, V. Putin

Upon consideration and discussion of the proposals put forward by the participants of the consultations in Minsk on September 1, 2014, the Trilateral Contact Group, consisting of the representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe [OSCE], reached an understanding with respect to the need to implement the following steps:

• Ensure the immediate bilateral cessation of the use of weapons.

• Ensure monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the regime of non-use of weapons.

• Implement decentralization of power, including by means of enacting the Law of Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status).

• Ensure permanent monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian state border and verification by the OSCE, together with the creation of a security area in the border regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

• Immediately release all hostages and unlawfully detained persons.

• Enact a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine.

• Conduct an inclusive national dialogue.

• Adopt measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in Donbass.

• Ensure the holding of early local elections in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status).

• Remove unlawful military formations, military hardware, as well as militants and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine.

• Adopt a program for the economic revival of Donbass and the recovery of economic activity in the region.

• Provide personal security guarantees for the participants of the consultations

.

Participants of the Trilateral Contact Group:

Ambassador Heidi Talyavini (signed)

Second President of Ukraine, L.D. Kuchma (signed)

Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, M.Y. Zurabov (signed)

A.V. Zakharchenko (signed)

I.V. Plotnitskiy (signed)