Currency wars

Competitive Easing Madness; Japan to Double Monetary Base; Draghi Signals More Easing; Yen Plunges

Global Economic Analysis,

4 April, 2013

Escape Velocity

Central bankers have gone totally mad. The stunning news of toady is a new pledge by Japan to double its monetary base in two years as the Bank of Japan Unveils Aggressive Easing.

 The Bank of Japan will aim to double the monetary base over two years through the aggressive purchase of long-term bonds, in a dramatic shift aimed at ridding Japan of the deflation that has dogged the country for almost two decades.

Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday announced his arrival as central bank governor with a “new phase of monetary easing”, a move that comes after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told the bank to target a 2 per cent rate of inflation.

“We can’t escape deflation with the incremental approach that’s been taken until now,” Mr Kuroda said after the announcement. “We need to use every means available.”

“I am confident that all the policies we need to achieve 2 per cent inflation in around two years are now in place,” he said.

Yen Plunges

As one might expect on such a surprise announcement, the Yen had a spectacular plunge.

Draghi Signals More Easing

Bloomberg reports German Yields Fall to 8-Month Low as Draghi Signals More Easing

 German government bonds rose, pushing 10-year yields to the lowest since August, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled further stimulus is possible should economic conditions deteriorate.

French and Austrian 10-year yields fell to records as Draghi said monetary policy will “remain accommodative for as long as needed” to boost growth. Spanish and Italian bonds pared gains as the ECB president said the central bank won’t immediately implement measures to ease funding strains for smaller companies.

Fed Uncertainty Principle

This is all in accordance with the Fed Uncertainty Principle corollary three.
Corollary Number Three:

Don't expect the Fed [central banks in general] to learn from past mistakes. Instead, expect the Fed to repeat them with bigger and bigger doses of exactly what created the initial problem.

Japan is eventually going to achieve "escape velocity" on deflation, and I assure you Japanese citizens will not like the results when it happens.

When the Japanese bond market finally reacts to this inane policy, there is going to be a global currency crisis.