The East China Sea dispute

I think that Clinton has just said the US is ready to go to war against China to protect Japan's interest in a conflict over resources.

Clinton assures Japan on islands, invites Abe to U.S. in February

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton assured Japan on Friday of U.S. support in Tokyo's dispute with Beijing over a string of islands and invited new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Washington in late February for a meeting with President Barack Obama.

News Daily,

18 January, 2013

Clinton held a working lunch with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, and both emerged pledging that U.S.-Japan security and economic ties would remain strong following Abe's landslide election victory last month.

"Our alliance with Japan remains the cornerstone of American engagement with the region," Clinton told reporters, noting a wide range of cooperation on everything from disaster relief to the stand-off over nuclear North Korea.

Clinton, due to step down in coming weeks, again affirmed that the United States would stand by its longtime ally in its territorial dispute with China over islets in the East China Sea claimed by both countries.

Tensions over the tiny islands, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, have flared in recent months, one of several maritime territorial disputes involving China that have worsened as Washington seeks to shift its security focus to Asia.

"Although the United States does not take a position on the ultimate sovereignty of the islands, we acknowledge they are under the administration of Japan," Clinton said, repeating the long-standing U.S. position on the dispute.

"We oppose any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration, and we urge all parties to take steps to prevent incidents and manage disagreements through peaceful means."

Kishida signaled that Abe, who had taken a tough stance on the dispute during his election campaign, was not eager to escalate the conflict.

"While Japan will not concede and will uphold our fundamental position that the Senkaku islands are an inherent territory of Japan, we intend to respond calmly so as not to provoke China," he said through an interpreter.

Clinton announced that Abe had been invited to Washington in the third week of February to hold his first meeting with Obama.

FACING CHINA

Abe had hoped to make the United States his first overseas visit following his election last month on a platform that called for both reviving Japan's struggling economy and coping with China's rising power in the region.

But the visit was postponed due to Obama's tight schedule, and Abe traveled instead to Southeast Asia before cutting the trip short this week to return home after Japanese workers were caught up in the hostage crisis in Algeria.

U.S. officials describe a generally healthy relationship with Tokyo, albeit one hampered by frequent changes in the Japanese leadership. Kishida is the sixth Japanese foreign minister to hold office during the four years that Clinton has been America's top diplomat.

Abe came to power partly on a nationalist platform and wants to revise Japan's U.S.-drafted constitution adopted after World War Two. U.S. officials have indicated they would like to see Japan loosen constitutional restraints on its military to enable a bigger global security role.

The United States and Japan have also sought to cooperate on plans to streamline the U.S. military presence in the southern Japanese island of Okinawa including proposals to move the Futenma air base to a new site.

Clinton said she was confident that the two sides could make further progress on the issue, while Kishida said the Abe administration was committed to working through a framework deal the two sides announced last year.

Japan Warns It May Fire On Chinese Aircraft Over Disputed Islands; China Retorts: "There Will Be No Second Shot"

Zero Hedge,

20 January, 2013

A week ago we reported that following what China said was a response to counter "Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft" over the East China Sea, the world's most populous country (and one which has the largest, 2.25 million strong, standing army) scrambled several jets and put its military on high alert. Now, it is the turn of Japan, and its brand new militant and nationalistic government, to "retaliate" and escalate tensions by one more notch, in the process crashing any hope that Chinese imports of Japanese goods may resume, and obviating the ongoing temporary plunge in the yen (which while doing nothing to boost exports to this 20% trading partner, has made imports so expensive, inflation in the past two months has already soared well above the 2% target for various key goods as previously reported).

Moments ago, Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control

AP reports:

Japanese officials made the comments after Chinese fighters tailed its warplanes near the islands recently. The incident is believed to be the first scrambling of Chinese fighters since the tensions began to rise last spring.

According to Chinese media, a pair of J-10 fighters was scrambled after Japanese F-15s began tailing a Chinese surveillance plane near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. China has complained the surveillance flight did not violate Japanese airspace and the F-15s were harassing it.

It was the first time the Chinese media has reported fighters being mobilized to respond to Japanese air force activity in the area and comes amid what Japan says is a rapid intensification of Chinese air force activity around the islands, where Japanese and Chinese coast guard ships have squared off for months.

Though there have been no outright clashes, the increased sea and air operations have fueled worries that the situation could spin out of control.

"Every country has procedures for how to deal with a violation of its territory that continues after multiple cautionary measures," Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said on Jan. 16 when asked if tracer shots would be fired against intruding aircraft that refuse to change course. "We have response measures ready that are consistent with global standards."

Onodera said the use of warning shots has long been provided for under Japan's defense policies and is widely accepted under international rules of engagement. Japan's air force has not actually resorted to them since 1987--against a Soviet aircraft--and none were fired last week.

But Chinese and Japanese media have suggested Tokyo is publicly floating the possibility to test China's reaction.

Perhaps it may surprise Japan, but "China's reaction" will hardly be one of a dog retreating with its tail between its legs. In fact, it will likely be quite the opposite.

And the fact that the US has once again stepped in, and is once again on the side of the party that started this whole escalation fiasco (that would be Japan for those who have forgotten), will not help:

The escalation of tensions has worried the United States, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying on Jan. 18 that while the U.S. doesn't take a position on who has sovereignty over the islands, it opposes "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration."

That brought a sharp retort from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Jan. 20. The comments "ignore the facts" that the islands are China's inherent territory, spokesman Qin Gang said in a statement that urged the U.S. to adopt "a responsible attitude."

In Beijing last week, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said China is on "high alert" and suggested Japan is escalating the tensions over the islands, called the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan. Taiwan also claims the small isles, which are uninhabited but may be surrounded by valuable underwater natural resources.

"Chinese planes and ships are exercising normal jurisdiction in the waters and airspace surrounding the Diaoyu Islands," spokesman Hong Lei said. "We are opposed to the operations of Japan's planes and ships, which violate our rights around Diaoyu. We are on high alert against this escalation."

 As is often the case, Chinese media quoted military academics with a much more fiery response.

"Japan's desire to fire tracer warning shots as a way of frightening the Chinese is nothing but a joke that shows the stupidity, cruelty and failure to understand their own limitations," Maj. Gen. Peng Guangqian of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences was quoted as saying by the China News Service and other state media.

"Firing tracer bullets is a type of provocation; it's firing the first shot," he said. "Were Japan to dare to fire tracers, which is to say fire the first shot, then China wouldn't stint on responding and not allow them to fire the second shot."

Sounds like a catalyst to double down and buy every ES contract in sight: just think of the GDP boost and appropriate fiscal multiplier once Japan is levelled.

US aircraft tailed by Chinese fighters near Japanese border

Want China Times,

16 January, 2013

US aircraft were shadowed by Chinese fighters in airspace near the border between China and Japan on Jan. 10, reports the Global Times, a nationalistic Chinese tabloid.

A US Navy P-3C patrol plane based at Misawa Air Base and a US Air Force C-130 cargo plane based at Yokota Air Base were tailed by Chinese J-7 and J-10 fighters last week. When both American aircraft reached the air border between China and Japan on Jan. 10, Chinese fighters were scrambled to intercept them, according to Tokyo's Sankei Shimbun newspaper. The report said the PLA Air Force's move was an apparent overreaction to movement of aircraft taking off from Japanese bases.

On the same day, PLA fighters also appeared near the disputed Diaoyutai islands (Diaoyu in China or Senkaku in Japan). P-3C, EP-3 and OP-3 reconnaissance aircraft attached to Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force were dispatched to collect data on the Chinese aircraft. Two E-2C early warning aircraft were also deployed to prevent a direct confrontation between the PLA Air Force and Japan's Air Self-Defense Force.

On Jan. 11, China's defense ministry said that as Chinese aircraft were followed by two Japanese F-15J fighters first, the two PLA J-10 fighters were only sent as a response to observe Japanese jets close to Chinese airspace.

The Chinese foreign ministry claimed the fighters were only conducting routine patrols over the country's territory and denounced the decision made by Japanese to "escalate" the conflict over the islands in the East China Sea. Following Japan's move to nationalize several of the disputed islands in September, isolated but tense incidents between vessels and aircraft of the two nations have occurred regularly in the area.

While rumors circulate that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe issued orders to the Japan Air Self-Defense Force to fire warning shots on Chinese planes entering the Japanese Air Defense Identification Zone, PLA General Peng Guangqian told the state-run China News Service that if a Chinese aircraft were hit even with a flare, it would mean war. Peng said that it would be up to the PLA Air Force to determine what kind of weapon to use in response. The general stated that Japan gives China a perfect excuse to launch a war should it fire the first shot.

According to Peng, this prompted Abe's public denial of the rumors