The
withering of all woods is drawing near
I suppose I shouldn't have been surprised to learn that most life in the sea is actually microbial. The authors of the book "Coral Reefs in the Microbial Seas" document how pollution has initiated the collapse of ocean life, first among the tiniest organisms upon which all larger species depend.
"What does a dead or dying coral reef look like? The deterioration is not always obvious, even to the experts. For starters, most of us don't realize what a pristine, pre-human coral reef should look like. Typically, the reefs we know and regard as healthy were already significantly changed by human activities decades - even centuries - ago….This lag between cause and effect is frequently seen in ecosystems due to their resilience. A resilient ecosystem can recover from insults - up to a point - without visibly changing, thus blinding us to the damage inflicted."
"Every ecosystem I studied is unrecognizably different from when I started. I have a son who is 30, and I used to take him snorkeling on the reefs in Jamaica to show him all the beautiful corals there. I have a daughter who is 17. I can't show her anything but seaweed."
Especially pertinent are the parallels between US Forestry Service employees with their academic affiliates, and "fisheries biologists" who work for government agencies as described here:
A comment left at that article by an anonymous reader, which unfortunately had no links to substantiate the claims, was intriguing as well since it supports exactly what has occurred with terrestrial ecosystems:
The National Climate Assessment Advisory Committee over at globalchange.gov has released a draft for public comment about the dangerously accelerating effects of global warming. Every climate blog and news outlet is discussing the most terrifying aspects - but at Wit's End, I'll skip all that and concentrate on Chapter 7 - Forests. This report made me more than my usual crazy. I could find only two references to pollution in the entire paper. The first one, incredibly, admits that pollutants are more important than climate in eastern forest decline, which begs the question - why wouldn't they also be more important in the horrendously polluted western forests? Well, the answer is, foresters would love to blame eastern forest decline on drought from climate change too, for reasons that will become obvious...but they can't - because it's wetter, not drier! So they try to blame insects, disease and fungus - but those don't really cooperate in explaining a widespread, total dieback either, because they're mostly species-specific.
"Caption: Potential forestry bioenergy resources by 2030 at $80 per dry ton of biomass based on current forest area, production rates based on aggressive management for fast-growth, and short rotation bioenergy plantations. Units are Oven Dry Tons (ODT) per Square Mile at the county level, where an ODT is 2,000 pounds of biomass from which the moisture has been removed. Includes extensive material from existing forestland such as residues, simulated thinnings, and some pulpwood for bioenergy, among other sources. Source: based on (DOE 2011)."
“'The flaring of natural gas is a tremendous economic waste, and it threatens oil developers’ license to operate, as well as the environment,' said Pat Zerega, director of shareholder advocacy at Mercy Investment Services, the lead filer of this resolution. 'Numerous Sisters of Mercy, as well as myself, live in areas of Pennsylvania and New York affected by flaring from shale gas operations, and our concern over the environmental impacts of flaring continues to grow. Continental should focus on eliminating this wasteful practice.'"
"In its most recent report on oil production, the state’s Commission also noted that while "the high liquids content makes gathering and processing of Bakken gas economic" and 'additions to gathering and processing capacity are helping,"at least 30 percent of this gas continues to be flared. Given the rapid growth of oil production in the region, these estimates may lag behind actual flaring levels."
"Ceres coordinates annual shareholder filings on a range of sustainability issues. Additional examples of Ceres’s work with shareholders can be found in Investor Power, a publication highlighting action on palm oil, hydraulic fracturing, the homebuilding sector and the electric power industry."For more information: Brian Bowen, 617-247-0700 x148, bowen@ceres.org
Who, you may ask, is Ceres?
I like their name, don't you? Ceres, the ancient Roman goddess of agriculture, fertility, fucundity, and maternal love! Her name is etymologically linked to "grow", "cereal", "create" and "increase". What a terrific choice for a non-profit that is all about "sustainable growth" and "building corporate relationships" and is "working with the oil industry to eliminate its most wasteful and environmentally harmful practices". Most?? The entire industry is harmful!
13 January, 2013
And
it may well be that that time is drawing near at last. For if
Sauron of old destroyed the gardens, the Enemy today seems likely to
wither all the woods.
~ Treebeard...Chapter 4, The Twin Towers, The Lord of the Rings
~ Treebeard...Chapter 4, The Twin Towers, The Lord of the Rings
I
don't think of myself as lacking imagination, but, being a mostly
doggedly practical person, I never was a fan (loathedhim!...thought
he was a weird boring wuss!) of elaborately convoluted fantasies such
as Tolkien's. I tried, and failed, to read him when I was a
teenager. But now I think maybe he was on to something (I've
been reading the link above to Chapter 4, an oddly enchanting Chinese
translation). When it comes to the advent of agriculture, the
mortal threat from machines, and the massacre of trees, it would
appear Tolkien is a deep ecologist after all. Since of course, Wit's
End is all about trees dying from pollution, it seems appropriate to
acknowledge that he had far more to impart than just cute
idiosyncratic nomenclature. Here is the last known photo of
Tolkien in front of his favorite tree, a pinus
nigra,
the seed for which was brought from Greece in 1790 and planted in the
Oxford Botanical Garden.
He
called it Laocoön, and it is apparent why when comparing the
muscular branches with the sculpture.
The original depiction
of the punishment of Laocoön for warning the Trojans of
Greeks bearing gifts stands in Rome, but there is a copy at the
museum at Oxford.
Alas
the forest isn't the only ecosystem that is collapsing thanks to the
atrocious hemorrhaging of industrial pollution. The coral reefs
are expiring at a harrowing pace too, and they are at least as
essential to the rest of life on earth as trees. Our
perceptions of both the oceans and the forests have altered in
conjunction with the imperceptible degradation of their condition.
We are becoming so inured to ugly, dead trees and stumps that
many talented photographers, like the anonymous contributor to flickr
who took the pictures in this post, lovingly photograph them as
though they are examples of natural beauty...instead of the
abominable decay and death they truly represent.
The
pictures of leaves that follow are shared from
Windspiritkeeper's blog.
It's amazing to me how closely the damaged leaves he
photographs in the West - Santa Barbara and Arizona - resemble the
injured foliage on the East Coast, different species in a very
different environment...but impacted by the same atmospheric gases.
I suppose I shouldn't have been surprised to learn that most life in the sea is actually microbial. The authors of the book "Coral Reefs in the Microbial Seas" document how pollution has initiated the collapse of ocean life, first among the tiniest organisms upon which all larger species depend.
"What does a dead or dying coral reef look like? The deterioration is not always obvious, even to the experts. For starters, most of us don't realize what a pristine, pre-human coral reef should look like. Typically, the reefs we know and regard as healthy were already significantly changed by human activities decades - even centuries - ago….This lag between cause and effect is frequently seen in ecosystems due to their resilience. A resilient ecosystem can recover from insults - up to a point - without visibly changing, thus blinding us to the damage inflicted."
"There
is another, more subtle reason for our blindness. Each
generation of reef scientists, SCUBA divers, and fishermen tend to
accept the state of a reef when they first behold it as normal.
As the years go by, they compare their current observations against
the way things used to be, the way - in their mind - they should be.
When the next generation arrives on the scene, the reef has declined
farther. What one generation regarded as degraded, the next
conceders normal. Furthermore, specific studies assessing the
health of a coral reef typically compare it against a baseline drawn
from the start of the current study or, at best, the observations of
a previous study completed a few years earlier. Each new study
starts with a more recent baseline, one that has already shifted a
little farther from pristine. This phenomenon is called the
shifting baseline syndrome…"
"…However,
since the 1970s the pace of decline has quickened as stressors
increase and their effects compound."
"Every ecosystem I studied is unrecognizably different from when I started. I have a son who is 30, and I used to take him snorkeling on the reefs in Jamaica to show him all the beautiful corals there. I have a daughter who is 17. I can't show her anything but seaweed."
~
Jeremy Jackson
p. 29
"Given
enough time, coral reef structures can become epic in scale.
The Great Barrier Reef covers hundreds of thousands of square
kilometers and is easily visible form space. Nothing else
built by living organisms, incuding humans, even comes close.
Darwin never addressed how the humble corals build such massive
structures…"
"Having
been around for at least 540 million years Cnidarians have survived
environmental upheavals that are unfathomable to us, including all of
the previous mass extinctions, which collectively wiped out 99.9% of
Earth's earlier species. Their tenacity speaks for itself.
Corals are extremely tough and adaptable creatures."
Chapter
7:
More
Nutrients Equals Even More Algae
"Human
activities are adding huge quantities of nutrients, including
phosphate and nitrogen compounds, to the environment. Extensive
field observations at Kaneohe Bay and the Gulf of Aqaba have
implicated nutrient enrichment in coral death. Although
short-term dosing with added nutrients often fails to show direct
negative impacts on corals, nutrient enrichment has subtle,
long-term, detrimental effects on essential coral activities.
Furthermore, by stimulating algal growth, added nutrients contribute
to the DDAMnation of the reefs."
Along
the same analogy, I had to laugh reading a 2009
essay by
Daniel Pauly - "Aquacalypse Now" even though it's not at
all funny, especially this part:
"Unfortunately,
it is not just the future of the fishing industry that is at stake,
but also the continued health of the world’s largest ecosystem.
While the climate crisis gathers front-page attention on a regular
basis, people--even those who profess great environmental
consciousness--continue to eat fish as if it were a sustainable
practice. But eating a tuna roll at a sushi restaurant should be
considered no more environmentally benign than driving a Hummer or
harpooning a manatee. In the past 50 years, we have reduced the
populations of large commercial fish, such as bluefin tuna, cod, and
other favorites, by a staggering 90 percent. One study, published in
the prestigious journal Science, forecast that, by
2048, all commercial fish stocks will have
“collapsed,” meaning that they will be generating 10 percent or
less of their peak catches. Whether or not that particular year, or
even decade, is correct, one thing is clear: Fish are in dire peril,
and, if they are, then so are we."
What
amused me was this section, because you could easily substitute trees
for fish and forests for fisheries:
"The
extent of the fisheries’ Ponzi scheme eluded government
scientists for many years. They had long studied the health of
fish populations, of course, but typically, laboratories would
focus only on the species in their nation’s waters. And those
studying a particular species in one country would communicate only
with those studying that same species in another. Thus, they failed
to notice an important pattern: Popular species were sequentially
replacing each other in the catches that fisheries were reporting,
and, when a species faded, scientific attention shifted to the
replacement species. At any given moment, scientists might
acknowledge that one-half or two-thirds of fisheries were being
overfished, but, when the stock of a particular fish was used up, it
was simply removed from the denominator of the fraction. For example,
the Hudson River sturgeon wasn’t counted as an overfished stock
once it disappeared from New York waters; it simply became an
anecdote in the historical record. The baselines just kept shifting,
allowing us to continue blithely damaging marine ecosystems."
"It
was not until the 1990s that a series of high-profile scientific
papers demonstrated that we needed to study, and mitigate, fish
depletions at the global level. They showed that phenomena previously
observed at local levels--for example, the disappearance of large
species from fisheries’ catches and their replacement by smaller
species--were also occurring globally. It was a realization akin to
understanding that the financial meltdown was due not to the failure
of a single bank, but, rather, to the failure of the entire banking
system--and it drew a lot of controversy."
Especially pertinent are the parallels between US Forestry Service employees with their academic affiliates, and "fisheries biologists" who work for government agencies as described here:
"The
notion that fish are globally imperiled has been challenged in many
ways--perhaps most notably by fisheries biologists, who have
questioned the facts, the tone, and even the integrity of those
making such allegations. Fisheries biologists are different than
marine ecologists like myself. Marine ecologists are concerned mainly
with threats to the diversity of the ecosystems that they study, and
so, they frequently work in concert with environmental NGOs and are
often funded by philanthropic foundations. By contrast, fisheries
biologists traditionally work for government agencies, like the
National Marine Fisheries Service at the Commerce Department, or as
consultants to the fishing industry, and their chief goal is to
protect fisheries and the fishermen they employ. I myself was trained
as a fisheries biologist in Germany, and, while they would dispute
this, the agencies for which many of my former classmates work
clearly have been captured by the industry they are supposed to
regulate. Thus, there are fisheries scientists who, for example,
write that cod have “recovered” or even “doubled” their
numbers when, in fact, they have increased merely from 1 percent to 2
percent of their original abundance in the 1950s."
A comment left at that article by an anonymous reader, which unfortunately had no links to substantiate the claims, was intriguing as well since it supports exactly what has occurred with terrestrial ecosystems:
"Also
more emphasis should be placed on the effective pollution in the
decline of global fisheries. Information going back to the 1950s I
believe estimated that fishery production could easily sustain global
population increases well into the end of this century. Studies from
the 70s and 80s warned us about the damage that widespread pollution
was having on the base resources that these fisheries rely on.
Unfortunately those warnings went largely ignored by governments
around the world including the US government, the Japanese, the
Russians, the Chinese etc."
"Now
with the combined forces of massive overfishing and massive pollution
increases, we've got a real problem on our hands, a problem that
we're going to have to deal with over the next 25 years, or we will
be looking at the collapse of our oceans as viable ecosystems, and if
the oceans die, we all die, it's that simple. We'll be talking about
human starvation and land-based ecosystem collapses, the like of
which has never been seen. We won't have to wait for global warming
to wipe us out, we kill the oceans, and we kill ourselves in very
short order. And not buying fish from the weasels who run Whole Foods
Market or not eating sushi, ain't going to solve this problem. It's
going to take a global effort, first to stop the never-ending flow of
land-based pollution into our oceans, the scale of which has never
really been fully measured or accounted for, next tight controls on
fishing volumes worldwide will have to be placed, until the various
fisheries have had a chance to recover. These measures must be taken
over the next 10 years to avoid catastrophe."
The National Climate Assessment Advisory Committee over at globalchange.gov has released a draft for public comment about the dangerously accelerating effects of global warming. Every climate blog and news outlet is discussing the most terrifying aspects - but at Wit's End, I'll skip all that and concentrate on Chapter 7 - Forests. This report made me more than my usual crazy. I could find only two references to pollution in the entire paper. The first one, incredibly, admits that pollutants are more important than climate in eastern forest decline, which begs the question - why wouldn't they also be more important in the horrendously polluted western forests? Well, the answer is, foresters would love to blame eastern forest decline on drought from climate change too, for reasons that will become obvious...but they can't - because it's wetter, not drier! So they try to blame insects, disease and fungus - but those don't really cooperate in explaining a widespread, total dieback either, because they're mostly species-specific.
p. 266
"In
eastern forests, forest composition,
forest structure, and pollutants appear
to be more important than climate in causing large-scale
tree mortality over recent decades. Nonetheless, tree mortality
is sensitive to rising temperature (Dietze and Moorcroft 2011),
and is expected to increase as climate warms. Because disturbances
are normal yet rare at large scales, the extent to which recent
forest disturbances can be directly attributed to climate change
is uncertain. However, a growing body of research documents
clear linkages between climatic conditions projected for the future
and subsequent ecosystem responses, and confirms emerging risks
to forests."
p.
267
"Tree
mortality is often a combination of many factors, thus increases
in pollutants, droughts, and wildfires will
increase the probability of a tree dying. Under projected
climate conditions, rising temperatures could become more
important than, or work together with, stand characteristics and
these other stressors to increase mortality. As temperatures
increase to levels projected for mid-century and beyond, eastern
forests may be at risk of die-off or decline (Dale et al. 2010b)
similar to recent die-offs in western forests (Allen et al.
2010; Raffa et al. 2008), which already have been more severe
even than recent estimates (IPCC 2007). New evidence indicates that
most tree species maintain only a small hydraulic safety margin,
reinforcing the idea that mesic as well as semiarid forests are
vulnerable to drought-induced mortality under warming climates (Choat
et al. 2012)."
That's
it! That's all,
folks!! The disturbances in the chart don't include
pollution anywhere - not acid rain, not excess nitrogen deposition,
not tropospheric ozone - not even disease or fungus, and it's the
lethal fungus spread by beetles that finishes off trees weakened from
ozone.
Figure
7.1: Forest Ecosystem Disturbances
"Caption:
The distribution of major forested ecosystem disturbance types
in North America varies by topography, vegetation, weather
patterns, climate gradients, and proximity to human settlement.
Severity is mapped using the MODIS Global Disturbance Index, with
moderate (orange) and high (red) severity. Fire along with other
disturbances dominates much of the western forested ecosystems.
Storms affect the Gulf Coast of the U.S., insect damage is
widespread but currently concentrated in western regions, and timber
harvest prevails in the Southeast. Figure source: (Goetz et al.
2012); Copyright 2012 American Geophysical Union."
As you
go through the report, it becomes more and more phantasmic. This
prediction is patently absurd given that the forests (just LOOK at
them) are in massive, rapid dieback ALREADY:
p. 269
"In the eastern U.S., elevated CO2 and temperature
may increase forest growth and potentially carbon storage, if
sufficient water is available."
This
map is delusional for the same reason. It purportedly indicates
CO2 uptake - a ludicrous assertion. The forests are DYING.
They are net
emitting CO2, not absorbing it.
Figure
7.4: U.S. Forests are Important Carbon Sinks
"Caption:
U.S. Forests currently absorb about 13% of national carbon dioxide
emissions. Southwest forests absorb considerably less than many
eastern forests and those along the western coast. Climate
change, combined with current societal trends regarding land use and
forest management, is projected to reduce forest CO2 uptake. Figure
shows carbon uptake rates for U.S. forests in tons per hectare
per year (methods from Running et al. 2004)."
A
rational person might wonder, why would the authors of this report be
peddling hallucinatory chimeras? The answer becomes clear on
page 272 (and remember what Pauly said about "fisheries
biologists"):
"In
the U.S., afforestation (active establishment or planting of forests)
could capture and store a
maximum
of 225 million tons of carbon per year from 2010−2110 (EPA 2005;
King et al. 2007).
Tree
and shrub encroachment into grasslands, rangelands, and savannas
provides a large
potential
carbon sink that could exceed half of what existing U.S. forests
capture and store
annually
(King et al. 2007)."
See?
We need to plant more trees. That will be good for the
climate - and good for the foresters, won't it? Here's another
little motivation to avoid implicating emissions from burning fuel as
being death to trees, which, purely coincidentally, intimates huge
profit potential:
Figure
7.6: Location of Potential Forestry Biomass Resources
"Caption: Potential forestry bioenergy resources by 2030 at $80 per dry ton of biomass based on current forest area, production rates based on aggressive management for fast-growth, and short rotation bioenergy plantations. Units are Oven Dry Tons (ODT) per Square Mile at the county level, where an ODT is 2,000 pounds of biomass from which the moisture has been removed. Includes extensive material from existing forestland such as residues, simulated thinnings, and some pulpwood for bioenergy, among other sources. Source: based on (DOE 2011)."
Notice
the source quoted by the foresters - the Department of Energy. I
can just see our corporate overlords slathering over the money to be
made using "forestry bioenergy resources", can't you?
Let's
move on to an image posted at Climate
Progress,
which compares the night-time view from space of the flaring methane
at the Bakken Oil Fields to the city lights of Minneapolis and
Chicago.
Using
photos from NASA, that picture originated from a group called Ceres.
They announced their intent to pressure industry to reduce
flaring, which is wasteful and polluting, in a press
release:
"The
rapid growth in domestic oil production has set the United States on
track to become the world’s
top oil producer by 2015,
but investors are wary of the environmentally damaging practices
associated with that growth, specifically the burning off—or
flaring—of natural gas that is produced as a byproduct from oil
wells."
"In
North Dakota’s Bakken shale region, widespread flaring across
millions of acres lights up the night sky, burning off enough energy
each day to heat half a million homes. Flaring is also prevalent in
other key shale regions, like Texas’s Eagle Ford. Excessive flaring
of natural gas affects regional air quality and creates significant
greenhouse gas emissions that investors are seeking to reduce."
“'The flaring of natural gas is a tremendous economic waste, and it threatens oil developers’ license to operate, as well as the environment,' said Pat Zerega, director of shareholder advocacy at Mercy Investment Services, the lead filer of this resolution. 'Numerous Sisters of Mercy, as well as myself, live in areas of Pennsylvania and New York affected by flaring from shale gas operations, and our concern over the environmental impacts of flaring continues to grow. Continental should focus on eliminating this wasteful practice.'"
"The
domestic oil industry’s practice of allowing billions of cubic feet
of natural gas to be flared or vented is only loosely regulated at
the state level, and growing domestic oil development has propelled
the U.S. into the top 10 gas flaring countries globally along with
Russia, Nigeria, and Iraq. Flaring is of particular concern in North
Dakota, where the number
of producing oil wells grew 21 percent between
January 2012 and October 2012, according to the North Dakota
Industrial Commission."
![]() |
| December, 2011, Maidstone, England |
"In its most recent report on oil production, the state’s Commission also noted that while "the high liquids content makes gathering and processing of Bakken gas economic" and 'additions to gathering and processing capacity are helping,"at least 30 percent of this gas continues to be flared. Given the rapid growth of oil production in the region, these estimates may lag behind actual flaring levels."
“'Even
with lower natural gas prices, there is no reason that oil developers
in the Bakken should be burning off a fuel that their colleagues in
the Marcellus region are working to capture. It’s simply bad
practice, and it is making domestic oil a particularly high-carbon
source,' said Andrew Logan, director of oil and gas program at
Ceres. “'Ceres has been working with the oil industry to eliminate
its most wasteful and environmentally harmful practices. Flaring can
be reduced to essentially zero, and the industry should hold itself
accountable to achieving this goal.'"
"Ceres coordinates annual shareholder filings on a range of sustainability issues. Additional examples of Ceres’s work with shareholders can be found in Investor Power, a publication highlighting action on palm oil, hydraulic fracturing, the homebuilding sector and the electric power industry."For more information: Brian Bowen, 617-247-0700 x148, bowen@ceres.org
Who, you may ask, is Ceres?
About
Ceres
Ceres is
an advocate for sustainability leadership. Ceres mobilizes
a powerful coalition of investors, companies and public interest
groups to accelerate and expand the adoption of sustainable business
practices and solutions to build a healthy global economy. Ceres
also directs the Investor Network on Climate Risk (INCR), a network
of 100 institutional investors with collective assets totaling more
than $11 trillion.
I like their name, don't you? Ceres, the ancient Roman goddess of agriculture, fertility, fucundity, and maternal love! Her name is etymologically linked to "grow", "cereal", "create" and "increase". What a terrific choice for a non-profit that is all about "sustainable growth" and "building corporate relationships" and is "working with the oil industry to eliminate its most wasteful and environmentally harmful practices". Most?? The entire industry is harmful!
[Did
you happen to hear that air pollution in Beijing has been so
thick buildings are disappearing?
"WHO
guidelines say average concentrations of the tiniest pollution
particles - called PM2.5 - should be no more than 25 microgrammes per
cubic metre. Air is unhealthy above 100 microgrammes. At 300,
all children and elderly people should remain indoors. Official
Beijing city readings on Saturday suggested pollution levels over
400. Unofficial reading from a monitor at the US embassy
recorded 800."]
Here
is Ceres propaganda - go ahead, watch it, I dare ya!
The antidote is here -
as an example of what they
endorse -
burning trees (you should check out the
pictures of
biomass plants).
I wrote to Brian Bowen to find out what was meant by statements in the Ceres release that "Excessive flaring of natural gas affects regional air quality." and later "...The flaring of natural gas is a tremendous economic waste, and it threatens oil developers’ license to operate, as well as the environment..."
I asked him:
Could
you tell me specifically what the air quality issue is, and
environmental threats, through flaring? Is this worse than just
releasing the gas? What are the emissions from burned natural
gas?
He
answered:
"Just
releasing the gas is worse, as methane is many times stronger
a greenhouse gas than CO2. Further reading on methane
emissions
here: http://www.ceres.org/files/methane-emissions/investor-joint-statement-on-methane-emissions"
"But
burning off natural gas creates CO2, which is of course also a
strong greenhouse gas."
"According
to the North Dakota Industrial Commission, 240
million cubic feet of gas flared is per day in
the state."
Thanks,
So
anyone who knows me, knows I couldn't leave it there:
Thanks.
What about NOx? Are tropospheric ozone precursors worse
from unburned methane, or burned methane? I see it mentioned in
the endnotes of the report you linked to:
"In
addition to methane’s direct influence on climate, it also has a
number of indirect effects including its role as an important
precursor to the formation of tropospheric ozone. For some methane
sources, emission control measures also reduce other co-emitted
substances such as the more reactive volatile organic compounds that
contribute to the local formation of ozone, as well as air
toxics, such as benzene, carbon tetrachloride and chloroform. Thus,
some methane mitigation measures provide local air-quality
benefits. Controlling methane emissions and the associated ozone
concentrations would also lead to substantial avoided crop yield
losses (about 25 million tones of four staple crops) benefitting
national development and food security – see UNEP/WMO Integrated
Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone
– http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/Black_Carbon.pdf"
And
he replied:
I'd
have to direct you to the authors of that report for more info, I'm
afraid.
![]() |
| November 2011, Thurnham, England |
Sure, so, what's in the report?
"Box 2: What is tropospheric ozone?"
"Ozone
(O3) is a reactive gas that exists in two layers of the atmosphere:
the stratosphere (the upper layer) and the troposphere (ground level
to ~10–15 km). In the stratosphere, O3 is considered to be
beneficial as it protects life on Earth from the sun’s harmful
ultraviolet (UV) radiation. In contrast, at ground level, it is an
air pollutant harmful to human health and ecosystems, and it is a
major component of urban smog. In the troposphere, O3 is also a
significant greenhouse gas. The threefold increase of the O3
concentration in the northern hemisphere during the past 100 years
has made it the third most important contributor to the human
enhancement of the global greenhouse effect, after CO2 and CH4."
"In
the troposphere, O3 is formed by the action of sunlight on O3
precursors that have natural and anthropogenic sources. These
precursors are CH4, nitrogen oxides (NOX), VOCs and CO. It is
important to understand that reductions in both CH4 and CO emissions
have the potential to substantially reduce O3 concentrations and
reduce global warming. In contrast, reducing VOCs would clearly be
beneficial but has a small impact on the global scale, while reducing
NOX has multiple additional effects that result in its net
impact on climate being minimal."
Ozonists and Ozonistas already knew all that (and also that I like rusting hulks of vehicles) - but mostly this was interesting for two points. One, according to this report, ozone has increased THREE TIMES in the northern hemisphere in last 100 years. That's a lot. It's far more, for instance, than CO2. The other thing is that, since this report is focussed on climate change (what isn't), reducing NOX is not a priority. They want to reduce methane and CO because those are the precursors that "...have the potential to substantially reduce O3 concentrations and reduce global warming." Methane and CO produce the longer-lasting, persistent, well-mixed background ozone - precisely what has passed the threshold that vegetation can tolerate.
Additional
notes on ozone:
Benefits
of the measures for crop yields
"Ozone
is toxic to plants. A vast body of literature describes
experiments andobservations showing the substantial effects of
O3 on visible leaf health, growth and productivity for a
large number of crops, trees and other plants. Ozone also
affects vegetation composition and diversity. Globally, the
full implementation of CH4 measures results in significant
reductions in O3 concentrations leading to avoided
yield losses of about 25 million tonnes of four staple crops
each year. The implementation of the BC measures would account
for about a further 25 million tonnes of avoided yield losses
in comparison with the reference scenario (Figure 1). This
is due to significant reductions in emissions of the
precursors CO, VOCs and NOX that reduce O3 concentrations."
Note,
that the avoided yield losses calculated are based on the
"recommended reductions" - not on a zero emissions
scenario. They don't tell us how much yield is lost currently,
which is obviously more than would be saved by implementing the
"recommended reductions". Plus, avoided yield losses
are based on direct stunting of growth and don't include the
much much greater
loss from opportunistic pathogen attacks that have been proven to
ensue when plants are exposed to ozone.
"...Furthermore, even the direct influence on yields are based on estimates for only four staple crops, and impacts on leafy crops, productive grasslands and food quality were not included, so that the calculated values are likely to be an underestimate of the total impact. In addition, extrapolation of results from a number of experimental studies to assess O3 impacts on ecosystems strongly suggests that reductions in O3 could lead to substantial increases in the net primary productivity. This could have a substantial impact on carbon sequestration, providing additional climate benefits."
Wow.
Think about that - they've only included four crops - what must
the rest be? All the other produce, and what about landcaping
stock? Also, they don't say so, but they didn't include tree
crops. What about nuts and fruit? They have snuck in the
fact that the O3 impact on "ecosystems" is decreasing net
primary productivity - in other words, reducing the growth of trees
and plants - other than cultivated annual crops. When they say
that reducing ozone would increase NPP such that it would have a
"substantial" impact on carbon sequestration, ameliorating
climate change, that sounds...substantial.
I went
to the NASA website where the original satellite image came from and
it was kind of sad.
Here's
a bigger
version of
the US from NASA. New Jersey is one solid blinding light with
Long Island exploding from it like a firecracker:
Here's
a screenshot of
the whole world. It's humbling because it's pretty obvious who
the gluttonous energy hogs are... and aren't. Actually it's
kind of thrilling and incredible how dark the Amazon and the heart of
Africa are...someplace left on earth that is a remnant of millions of
years of evolution before we leapt in to massacre every bit we could?
But
the video from the satellite is the part that is really depressing.
First, though, a couple of timely links: Paul and Anne
Erlich have a
new paper out,
"Can a Collapse of Global Civilization be Avoided?" which
is relaxing fare. Next, for all my friends who romanticise the
primitive and believe that capitalism (evil as it is), is the sole
source of our calamitous tenure on earth, which we could somehow
attenuate by, I don't know...changing our "culture"?... I
include this passage from a
review of
Jared Diamond's new work, The
World Until Yesterday,
which has these anecdotes from the book:
"The
custom among the Pirahã Indians of Brazil is that women give birth
alone. The linguist Steve Sheldon once saw a Pirahã woman giving
birth on a beach, while members of her tribe waited nearby. It was a
breech birth, however, and the woman started crying in agony. “Help
me, please! The baby will not come.” Sheldon went to help her, but
the other Pirahã stopped him, saying that she didn’t want his
help. The woman kept up her screams. The next morning both mother and
baby were found dead. The Pirahã believe that people have to
endure hardships on their own."
"The
anthropologist Allan Holmberg was with a group of Siriono Indians of
Bolivia when a middle-aged woman grew gravely ill. She lay in her
hammock, too unwell to walk or speak. Her husband told Holmberg that
the tribe had to move on and would leave her there to die. They left
her a fire and some water and walked away without saying goodbye.
Even her husband had no parting words for her. Holmberg was
also sick and went away to get treatment. When he returned three
weeks later, he saw no trace of the woman. At the next camp, he found
her remains picked clean by scavenging animals."
“'She
had tried her utmost to follow the fortunes of the band,' Holmberg
wrote, 'but had failed and had experienced the same fate that is
accorded all Siriono whose days of utility are over.' Tribes at this
subsistence level just don’t have the resources to care for people
who can’t keep up."
I'm
not going to describe the method, you'll have to read the
article for
yourself because it's pretty graphically gruesome - but it appears
that the Australian Aborigines "…are probably the first
primitive people to devise a wholly effective birth control. In the
baking wilderness they inhabit, numbers must be kept down, for they
cannot maintain large families on their low level of subsistence; and
long treks would be impossible with a large family of small children
and babies in arms."
There's
some speculation that they learned their lesson about overpopulation
having promptly, upon their arrival on the continent, driven the
native megafauna rapidly extinct about 46,000 years ago (species
which had survived numerous changes of climate over 2 million
years!). (Then, when a bridge to Tasmania formed due to sea
level rise 41,000 years ago, they marched over and ate all the
megafauna there, too.) Whether humans caused the extinctions
has been a matter of contention for years, but perhaps, as Dr.
John Alroy says:
“The
debate really should be over now. Hunting did it: end of story.
Personally, though, I never understood what there was to debate
because nothing else made sense." (I like this guy. He's
a scientist but he can see through the jargon. It's just like
the trees - they are dying, all over the world - it has to be the
composition of the atmosphere - because nothing
else makes sense.)
![]() |
| Read More at National Geographic |
“Most
Quaternary palaeoecologists immediately point to climate change
whenever there is an interesting pattern to explain, but huge climate
changes happened over and over again throughout the Pleistocene and
there was no mass extinction. And the new data rule out any role for
climate change at all."
“The
only other viable hypotheses was the landscape burning idea. But that
never really seemed plausible because all sorts of organisms also
should have gone extinct if only fire was important. The fact that
only very large mammals (and birds) went extinct only ever made any
sense on the theory that hunting was the mechanism."
“In
reality, the debate should have started and ended with Paul Martin's
landmark analysis from 1967. But it has dragged on for nearly a
half-century now because the idea that Stone Age hunters could cause
such utter havoc across three entire continents over very short time
spans strikes many people as incredible. Like it or not, though, it's
the truth, and it's time for us to all confront it.”
One last link - there is an interactive map of nuclear reactors around the world where you can zoom in and speculate on what it will be like when the grids go down sometime in the next 1,000 years or so or for whatever reason, they can't be cooled, and they melt down like Fukushima! Time to move to the southern hemisphere...
Finally
here's the NASA video, with the transcript below. I do realize
that, as a Diva of Doom, I have a tendency to see the worst - but
honestly, how the narration can describe city lights as stars and
galaxies, and wax euphoric that from space, the planet "comes
alive with light" - from sources such as the "massive
flames from gas flares produced as a byproduct of oil and gas
exploration in the Middle East" - not to mention that "Glowing
just as bright, flaming wildfires burn across Australia" as
anything other than the most horrific travesty of nature,
well...that's our human way, isn't it? All about us...
In daylight, our big blue marble is all land, oceans and clouds.
But the night is electric.
Seen from space, our planet comes alive with light.
This new view of the Earth's night lights is a composite of data acquired by the polar orbiting Suomi NPP satellite.
Aboard the satellite, a newly designed instrument called VIIRS is able to collect what scientists say is a remarkably detailed view of the Earth at night.
In some places, city lights resemble solitary stars in the night sky.
In other places, dense clusters of galaxies.
The satellite can even distinguish brightly lit boats that line Egypt's Nile River.
And the massive flames from gas flares produced as a byproduct of oil and gas exploration in the Middle East.
As the satellite passes over the darkness of the Himalayas, it shows how human settlement is bound by natural borders.
Even political borders are starkly visible in this view of North and South Korea.
And in a line of fishing boats that dot the Yellow Sea.
But not all light is electric. Glowing just as bright, flaming wildfires burn across Australia.
This new view of the Earth at night offers a unique perspective for exploring the many places in which we live, and seeing the impact of human populations around the world, no matter how faint or how bright their lights shine.


































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