Wildfires in Australia and wild weather in NZ

Well, the Australian media is finally admitting it – climate change is here. Pity they won't tell the whole truth

Records will keep tumbling with blistering heatwaves here to stay

THE heatwave that has scorched the nation since Christmas is a taste of things to come, with this week's records set to tumble again and again in the coming years, climate scientists said.

SMH,

9 January, 2013

The hottest average maximum temperature ever recorded across Australia - 40.33 degrees, set on Monday - might stand for only 24 hours and be eclipsed when all of Tuesday's readings come in. The previous record had stood since December 21, 1972.

''The current heatwave - in terms of its duration, its intensity and its extent - is unprecedented in our records,'' said the Bureau of Meteorology's manager of climate monitoring and prediction, David Jones.

''Clearly, the climate system is responding to the background warming trend. Everything that happens in the climate system now is taking place on a planet which is a degree hotter than it used to be.''

As the warming trend increased over coming years and decades, record-breaking heat would become more common, Dr Jones said.

''We know that global climate doesn't respond monotonically - it does go up and down with natural variation. That's why some years are hotter than others because of a range of factors. But we are getting many more hot records than we're getting cold records. That's not an issue that is explained away by natural variation.''

Australia's climate is based on an interplay of many factors, including regional and local weather patterns, El Nino and La Nina climate cycles and the Indian Ocean dipole, all superimposed on the greenhouse gas-driven warming trend.

While temperatures vary on a local and regional scale, globally it has been 27 years since the world experienced a month that was colder than average.

The impacts of the rising heat on farming, food, water and human health have been studied closely for years, and the trends being played out now mirror those laid out years ago in projections by the bureau, the CSIRO and the Garnaut climate change review.

They include heightened bushfire risk, rising sea levels affecting infrastructure and houses all along the coast and, by the end of the century, massive cuts in food production in the Murray-Darling Basin.

According to a peer-reviewed study by the Australian-based Global Carbon Project, global average temperatures are on a trajectory to rise a further four to six degrees by the end of this century, with that rise felt most strongly over land areas. It would be enough to tip Tuesday's 40-plus temperatures over much of mainland Australia close to 50 degrees in some parts.

"Those of us who spend our days trawling - and contributing to - the scientific literature on climate change are becoming increasingly gloomy about the future of human civilisation,'' said Liz Hanna, convener of the human health division at the Australian National University's climate change Adaption Network.

''We are well past the time of niceties, of avoiding the dire nature of what is unfolding, and politely trying not to scare the public,'' Dr Hanna said. ''The unparalleled setting of new heat extremes is forcing the continual upwards trending of warming predictions for the future, and the time scale is contracting.''

Around the world, this year could be the hottest ever recorded by modern instrumentation, according to a recent study by Britain's Met Office.

It said that, based on the rising background warming trend, this year would be 0.43 to 0.71 degrees hotter globally than the average temperature between 1961 and 1990, with a ''best fit'' of 0.57 degrees warmer. If that turns out to be accurate, this year would surpass the previous record, held jointly by 2005 and 2010.

The Met Office findings are considered telling in the climate science community, because this year is set to be a relatively ''neutral'' year, without a strong El Nino warming cycle to push up temperatures.

The current Australian heatwave, while exceptional, is a continuation of the record-breaking temperatures seen across much of Australia since September, according to the special climate statement issued by the bureau on Tuesday. The last four months of last year were the hottest on record, albeit by just 0.01 of a degree.

''This event is ongoing with further significant records likely to be set,'' the statement said.

The weather bureau's Dr Jones said the background warming was now clearly felt.

''Our oceans are hotter, the tropics are hotter, so any attempt to disentangle climate change from what we see in terms of weather doesn't make much sense - everything is hotter,'' he said. ''There is no alternative world which doesn't have the fingerprint of warming.''

Scorching temperatures off the charts

Catastrophic': Hundreds of wildfires rage in Australia amid record heat wave

RT,

8 January, 2013

A heat wave that has already caused devastating fires on the Island state of Tasmania, with 100 people still missing, has now moved to mainland Australia and is reaping havoc in New South Wales, as the heat wave looks to smash records.

In some areas temperatures have shot up by as much as 20C in three hours and 
combined with 50 mph winds have created disastrous fire conditions.

Right across Australia records have been broken by the heat wave and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has been forced to add colors to its forecast charts to take account of temperatures of 50-54 degrees Celsius.

Australia’s all-time record of 50.7 degrees; set in January 1960 at Oodnadatta in South Australia is likely to be smashed over the coming days. On Tuesday, in some places temperatures of 45 degrees Celsius were recorded.

“The scale has just been increased today and I would anticipate it is because the forecast coming from the bureau’s model is showing temperatures in excess of 50 degrees,” David Jones , the BoM’s head of climate monitoring, told Fairfax newspapers.

Australia as a whole experienced its hottest day on record on Monday, with average maximum temperatures across the entire country reaching 40.33 degrees breaking the previous record of 40.17 degrees set in 1972.

More than 130 fires are already blazing away in New South Wales (NSW), where fire officials said conditions were among the worst they had ever seen for wildfires. Fires had already burnt more than 30,000 hectares of land across NSW.

There are also wildfires burning in Victoria with 20 homes evacuates in Chepstowe, west of Australia’s second city Melbourne.

Houses destroyed by a bushfire are seen in ruins in Dunalley, about 40 kilometres (25 miles) east of Hobart, January 5, 2013. (Reuters/Chris Kidd/Pool)

Land continues to burn in Tasmania where blazes last weekend destroyed 90 homes and 20,000 hectares of farm land and forest.

Officials on the island are still unsure of the fate of 100 people who went missing since last week, after fires destroyed the town of Dunalley.

In the current terrifying conditions, fires can become so hot that they create their own lightning storms, which can in turn ignite more fires, and ember showers can fly up to 15 miles ahead of a fire, igniting new fires in areas not yet alight. Experts warn that the intense heat being generated by the fires can kill people before the flames even reach them.

The conditions hark back to Black Saturday in the state of Victoria in 2009, when 172 people were killed by fires. This time emergency services are not taking any risks and have already closed national parks, ordered tourists out of campsites and are following the movements of known arsonists.

“We are at a catastrophic level and clearly in those areas leaving early is your safest option,” New South Wales Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said.

The Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, said that it is important for people to keep themselves safe and listen to local authorities and their warnings.  She also stressed that the fires were being called catastrophic for a reason.

The Bega Valley is one of the areas authorities are most worried about, where fast moving scrub and grass fires are threatening homes.
Properties were under threat in the city of Wagga Wagga where the local highway has been closed. The Southern Ranges, the Riverina and Shoalhaven have also been given a catastrophic rating.

The heat, wind and dryness – ideal conditions for wildfires – follow a record four months of dry weather, allowing mere smoldering stumps and embers from areas already burned to blow into unburnt country.

However, the BoM is predicting cooler conditions to arrive across NSW by Wednesday morning.

This undated handout picture provided by New South Wales Rural Fire Service (NSW Rural Fire Service) on January 8, 2013 shows smoke billowing as a bushfire burns near Green Point in New South Wales. (AFP Photo/ NSW Rural Fire Service)

This undated handout aerial picture provided by New South Wales Rural Fire Service (NSW Rural Fire Service) on January 8, 2013 shows a bushfire burning 8km south west of 
Naradhan, north of Griffith in New South Wales. (AFP Photo/ NSW Rural Fire Service)

Smoke rises from the Yarrabin bushfire, burning out of control near Cooma, about 100km (62 miles) south of Canberra January 8, 2013. (Reuters/Tim Wimborne)

This aerial photograph taken on January 5, 2013 shows the devastation to property between Dunalley and Boomer Bay after bush fires swept through the area. (AFP Photo/Pool/Chris Kidd)

And in New Zealand....

Wild weather's dangerous punch

Stuff,

9 January, 2013

Heavy rain, severe gales and thunderstorms today will force people in the South Island and lower North Island to batten down the hatches.

MetService is warning intense rainfall in the South Island could cause slips, and rivers and streams to rise rapidly, while wind gusts of up to 140 kmh in Wellington and inland Canterbury have the potential to uproot trees and bring down power lines.

A front which has intensified over the Tasman Sea as it heads to New Zealand has prompted MetService to issue a severe weather warning for heavy rain in the west and south of the South Island and northwest gales in eastern areas, from Wairarapa to Otago.

People planning tramping or other outdoor activities in these areas should reconsider their plans as expected rainfall and wind gusts could be strong enough to make even driving hazardous, MetService said in a statement.

The heaviest rainfall would be in Westland today, where an estimated 300-400 millimetres was expected to fall in a 27-hour period.

Heavy rain was also expected in Fiordland and the headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes and rivers.

Meanwhile, Wellington and inland areas of Canterbury could expect winds of up to 140 kmh. Northwesterly winds were also expected to reach severe gale strength in Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough and Wairarapa, while northerly winds could reach severe gales in parts of Westland and northern Fiordland.

There was also a moderate risk of thunderstorms in Fiordland this afternoon and in northern Westland and Buller tonight.

There was a high risk of thunderstorms in southern and central parts of Westland and the Southern Alps from this afternoon into the evening.

Any thunderstorms were likely to boost local rainfall rates up to 25mm an hour or more