Collapse: Infrastructure breakdown

18,000 people are without power in Auckland due to a fire in a substation. It appears it will be days before power is restored.

As Abrupt climate change bears down on us we will see massive weather events disrupting our infrastructure and with the attendant collapse of the economic system that infrastructure won't be repaired , the power won't ever come back on nor will the water flow from the taps.

If you Aucklander's learn anything from this event I suggest you prepare for more of the same. 

Collapse is coming and it's coming much sooner than you think.

---Kevin Hester

This is what Mike Ruppert talked about so often - as infrastructure breaks down and collapse occurs apace....

---SMR

Auckland blackout: Vector promises all power back on tomorrow

Fire in cables at Penrose substation hits homes and businesses, traffic lights and freezers.

NZ Herald,

6 October, 2014

Power should be restored to all Auckland suburbs by 5am tomorrow, lines company Vector says.

The company late this morning released its latest estimates for when power was likely to be restored following yesterday's major blackout, which was caused by fires at the Penrose substation.

About 18,000 customers in eastern Auckland remain without power, down from 39,600 last night.

Vector spokeswoman Sandy Hodge said the St Johns feeder -- which delivers power to Meadowbank, St Johns and Orakei -- should be back in operation at 8pm today

The Sylvia Park cable should be back up by 11pm, Carbine Road by 1am tomorrow, Mt Wellington by 2am and the rest of Remuera by 5am.

Ms Hodge said the estimates would be updated if they changed.

Work on the fire-damaged cables at the Penrose substation was progressing well, she said.

"All available crews are working on these cables in order to repair and then reinstate them," she said.

"In the meantime, customers that have been restored in the affected areas are asked to conserve power as much as possible so we can back feed more areas.

"There is a bad patch of weather expected over the Auckland region today, so please ensure that garden furniture is secure along with tarpaulins and trampolines."

The Auckland Emergency Coordination Centre, which was activated yesterday, remains in operation this morning.

Civil Defence said nine road intersections remained without power, four of which were being managed by police officers.

Bus and rail services were mostly running without disruption, although four rail stations at Orakei, Sylvia Park, Glen Innes and Meadowbank had no power.

All hospitals were now on mains power. Health services had coordinated residential care teams working in affected areas to help those who were most vulnerable.

Westerly winds were expected to be gusty in Auckland later today, with the MetService forecasting winds of up to 100km/h in exposed places until 6pm.

"These winds are not expected to cause widespread damage but it is possible there could be localised power outages and fallen trees could during the afternoon," Civil Defence said.

The continuing blackout has prompted safety warnings from the Fire Service after two worrying incidents overnight.

Assistant area manager Mike Shaw said a woman was burned in an accident involving a methylated spirits camping stove.

In the second incident, a family left a diesel-powered generator running in a closed-up basement before they went to bed.

"Diesel-fired generators emit carbon monoxide and this could easily have filtered up through the floorboards and killed the sleeping family.

"Luckily, it ran out of fuel before this could happen."

Mr Shaw urged Aucklanders affected by the outage to follow basic safety rules when using generators, gas barbecues and lanterns.

He said portable barbecues, LPG patio lights or other equipment should not used be inside unless there was plenty of ventilation from open doors and windows.

"When changing the gas canisters or refuelling, make sure you are well away from any candles, or any other source of ignition."

Mr Shaw said generators should be kept outdoors, or in a well-ventilated area to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. The fuel should be stored separately.

Households using candles should make sure they were on a stable, non-combustible surface, well away from curtains or bedding and out of the reach of children. People should ensure they were blown out before going to bed.

Mr Shaw said electricity would come back on without warning, so people should make sure all switches were off and no stove elements were on.

The blackout has also prompted health concerns over spoiled food.

Auckland Civil Defence and Environmental Health said households and businesses should take care with food that had sat in fridges and freezers without power.

Readily perishable food should be thrown out if the power had been off for more then 24 hours, or if chillers were opened.

Food left in fridges or chillers without power for less than 24 hours must be checked, but should be safe if chillers were not opened, or opened only briefly for ice to be added.

Civil Defence said perishable foods in the chiller, such as fruit and hard cheeses, may still be safe if they were not showing obvious signs of spoilage.

Partially thawed food in the freezer should be completely defrosted and used immediately.

Food that did not thaw and remained frozen could still be used. However, frozen food that had defrosted and was then refrozen when power was restored should not be used.

The signs of defrosting would not always be obvious, but included misshapen products, drips from packaging, packages stuck together, or pooling of frozen fluids in the bottom of sealed packages.

Popular school holiday attraction Kelly Tarlton's, which was forced to close its doors to the public yesterday due to the power cut, has reopened today.

A spokeswoman said a temporary generator was in use and all areas were open, but customers would not be able to book online. Kelly Tarlton's would give the online booking discount at the ticket desk while the function was unavailable.

Assistant Area Fire Commander Dave Woon said it could take up to two weeks to report on the cause of the blaze that caused the power cut.

It was one of the more difficult blazes the Fire Service has had to work on, particularly as firefighters had to wait about an hour to ensure the power at the major substation was isolated and they would be safe to approach the trench.

By that time oil pressure pumped into the cables had seeped throughout the trench, fanning the flames and causing an intense heat to build up. Foam was used to knock back the flames so firefighters could access the 1.5-metre deep trench but Mr Woon said it then took some time to remove heavy concrete tiles covering the cables before a heavier foam could be used to suffocate the flames.

"It was dark and smoky and that was a hard job. I had 35 people there working with the foam and tiles and this was a very technical job, not something we do every day. But we had a good outcome," he said.

Talking of 2015 - not so far away.....

Are we on the cusp of global collapse?

Damn the Matrix,

15 October, 2012

Back in April, I wrote So much for debunking the Club of Rome in which I discussed a recent paper written by Dr Graham Turner of CSIRO, entitled “On the Cusp of Global Collapse?” It’s one of the most visited entry of this blog…… Anyone whose imagination was captured by the original “Limits to Growth” book from 1972, will find this is definitely an “Oh shit!” moment…….

Since publishing the latest updated version of Dr Turner’s paper on line would breach copyright, I’ll try to write a suitable summary.  I will reproduce the four-paragraph conclusion though, and some graphs.

Dr. Graham Turner, who is  senior research scientist at CSIRO, published his first 30-year comparison in 2008, using data from 1972 to 2002 to examine how the real situation compared to those infamous LtG projections of the 70’s.  In this update, another ten years of data are added on, for a more robust 40-year comparison.

The data sources Dr Turner used for this analysis are dutifully referenced.  The data includes information from the United Nations for population, as well as food, industrial output and literacy data, and uses the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 for oil and electricity consumption figures, plus CO2 data from NOAA, ESRI and Scripps.

To ensure apples are not compared with oranges, Dr Turner normalized all the data to the year 1900, and then compared it against three runs from Limits to Growth (1972):

• The standard run assumes business as usual, using parameters found from the 1900-1970 data.
• The comprehensive technology scenario models the attempt to reach sustainability through the application of a broad range of the usual (green dream) technological solutions.
• The stabilised world scenario uses both technology and social policies to achieve equilibrium in key factors like population, food and consumption.

Generally, the data follows thestandard run scenario. Where diversions occur, it is in the direction of the comprehensive technologyscenario, with very little evidence of social policies influencing the results.

Only one factor follows the stabilised world scenario, and that is global death rates. These level off lower than thestandard run, but higher than the comprehensive technology curve.

Population, birth rates, and per capita food, services and industrial output all follow the standard run. As do global pollution (modelled as CO2 emissions) and the consumption of non-renewable resources (modelled as the fraction of remaining oil).

The original LtG World3 model predicted that collapse in the standard run and comprehensive technologyscenarios began with resource constraints. Not necessarily resource shortages per se, but rather the increased re allocation of a dwindling pool of capital into extracting harder to get at resources – the “peaking” effect as I like to call it.  Exactly the same conclusion is supported by this latest analysis.

Anyone who’s read John Michael Greer’s concept of catabolic collapsewill understand how this scenario works.  Dr Turner also acknowledges Joseph Tainter‘s theory of decreasing marginal return on complexity (something I mentioned recently) as a source of the problems shown by the comprehensive technology scenario as well as a being factor in the rising cost of resource extraction.

As I have done many times here myself, Dr Turner explores the role of oil and food ‘price shocks’ as feedstock for more general economic crises, and the excessive complexity of the global financial system must be a factor here as well……..

Graham Turner’s conclusions are:

Our previous comparison of global data with the LtG modelled scenarios has been updated here to cover the 40-year period 1970 to 2010, i.e., from when the scenario simulations begin. The data has been compared with the outputs of theWorld3 model for three key LtG scenarios: standard run, comprehensive technology, and stabilized world. The data review continues to confirm that the standard run scenario represents real-world outcomes considerably well. This scenario results in collapse of the global economy and population in the near future. It begins in about 2015 with industrial output per capita falling precipitously, followed by food and services. Consequently, death rates increase from about 2020 and population falls from about 2030 – as death rates overtake birth rates. The collapse in the standard run is primarily caused by resource depletion and the model response of diverting capital away from other sectors in order to secure less accessible resources. Evidence for this mechanism operating in the real world is provided by comparison with data on the energy required to secure oil. Indeed, the EROI has decreased substantially in recent decades, and is quantitatively consistent with the relevant parameter in the World3 model. The confirmation of the key model mechanism underlying the dynamics of the standard run strengthens the veracity of the standard run scenario. The issue of peak oil has also affected food supply and evidently played a role in the current global financial crisis. While the GFC (global financial collapse) does not directly reflect collapse in the LtG standard run, it may well be indirectly related. The corroboration here of the LtG standard run implies that the scientific and public attention given to climate change, whilst important, is out of proportion with, and even deleteriously distracting from the issue of resource constraints, particularly oil. Indeed, if global collapse occurs as in this LtG scenario then pollution impacts will naturally be resolved, though not in any ideal sense. Another implication is the imminence of possible collapse. This contrasts with the general commentary on the LtG that describes collapse occurring sometime mid-century; and the LtG authors stressed not interpreting the time scale too precisely. However, the alignment of data trends with the model’s dynamics indicates that the early stages of collapse could occur within a decade, or might even be underway. This suggests, from a rational risk-based perspective, that planning for a collapsing global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse.

Climate Change is accelerating so fast at the moment that it may well have more of a role in the coming collapse than Dr. Turner concedes, but in the end that’s just quibbling in the face of momentous changes that both the model and the data suggest are coming.

2015 just doesn’t seem that far away any more……