Posts
Record
June–August Global Ocean Surface Temperature
4
October, 2014
August
2014 record high land and ocean temperature
The
combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces
for August 2014 was record high for the month, at 0.75°C (1.35°F)
above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F).
June–August
2014 record high land and ocean temperature
June–August
2014, at 0.71°C (1.28°F) higher than the 20th century average, was
the warmest such period across global land and ocean surfaces since
record keeping began in 1880.
August
2014 record high sea surface temperature
The
August global sea surface temperature (SST) was 0.65°C (1.17°F)
above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.4°F). This record high
departure from average not only beats the previous August record set
in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), but also beats the previous all-time
record set just two months ago in June 2014 by 0.03°C (0.05°F).
June–August
2014 record high sea surface temperature
The
June–August global ocean surface temperature was 0.63°C (1.13°F)
above the 20th century average, the highest on record for
June–August. This beats the previous record set in 2009 by 0.04°C
(0.07°F).
John
Davies comments:
This
was the warmest August on record, primarily due to very high Sea
Surface Temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.
There is no El
Nino event in this period, but some sort of event - hopefully an
event not a climate shift - is taking place. If this is an event, the
situation will become more normal when it ends, which will be in less
than a years time at worst. If it is a climate shift, we are in
desperate trouble, though I think it is an event.
It is worth
noting that these very high Sea Surface Temperatures are likely to
lead to high land temperatures soon, as normally land temperatures in
the Northern hemisphere can be expected to exceed Sea Surface
Temperatures.
The drought affecting California and the whole of
the west of North America, Central America, and large parts of the
Brazilian rainforest, though preceding this event was almost
certainly down to changes which started before this event but
ultimately caused it.
Despite
the record high combined average temperature across global land and
ocean surfaces for August, the global economy will continue as
normal and no specific action can be expected to be taken to curb
emissions. This will change, if global temperatures continue to rise.
Temperatures are high enough to cause global concern, however. More
later.
Note:
NOAA's most recient prediction puts the chance of El Niño at 60-65%
during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
Sea
surface temperatures (SST) can be expected to remain high in the
Arctic Ocean, as SST anomalies are high in the North Atlantic
(+1.65°C, image left) and high temperatures are forecast over the
Arctic for at least the next seven days (anomalies as high as
+2.87°C, image right). For a comparison with October 3 temperatures,
see this
earlier post.
Additionally,
an increasing amount of heat has been going into the deeper parts of
the ocean, and the Gulf Stream will for month to come continue to
transport water into the Arctic Ocean, and this water will be warmer
than the water already there, threatening to unleash ever larger
eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as
discussed in this
earlier post.
In
conclusion, the situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and
effective action, as discussed at the Climate
Plan blog.
References
-
NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global
Analysis for August 2014.
-
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION, issued
by:
Climate
Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute
for Climate and Society, 4 September 2014
-
ClimateReanalyzer.org
Where
we are - A climate system summary
by
Paul Beckwith
4
October, 2014
Air
The
presence of GHGs (greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere is vital to
sustain life on our planet. These GHGs trap heat and keep the global
average surface temperature of the planet at about 15°C, versus a
chilly -18°C, which would be our temperature without the GHGs.
We
have changed the chemistry of the atmosphere, specifically of the
concentrations of the GHGs. Concentrations of carbon dioxide have
increased about 40% since the start of the industrial revolution
(from a tight range between 180 to 280 ppm over at least the last
million years) to 400 ppm. Concentrations of methane have increased
by more than 2.5x since the start of the industrial revolution (from
a tight range of 350 to 700 ppb) to over 1800 ppb. The additional
heat trapped has warmed our planet by over 0.8°C over the last
century, with most of that rise (0.6°C) occurring in the last 3 or 4
decades.
Oceans
Over
90% of the heat trapped on the surface of the planet is increasing
the temperature of the ocean water. The increased levels of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere acidify the rainfall, and have increased
the acidity of the oceans by about 40% in the last 3 to 4 decades (pH
of the open ocean has dropped from 8.2 down to 8.05 on the
logarithmic scale). An increased drop to a pH of 7.8 will prevent
calcium based shells from forming, and threaten the entire food chain
of the ocean. Changes in ocean currents, and vertical temperature
profiles are leading to more stratification and less overturning
which is required to transport nutrients to the surface for
phytoplankton to thrive.
 |
| From: More than 2.5 m sea level rise by 2040 |
Land
Higher
global average temperatures have increased the amount of water vapor
in the atmosphere by about 4% over the last several decades, and
around 6% since the start of the industrial revolution. Changes in
heat distribution with latitude from uneven heating with latitude has
slowed the jet streams and caused them to become wavier and
fractured, and has changed the statistics of weather. We now have
higher frequencies, intensities, and longer duration extreme weather
events and also a change in location of where these events occur.
Feedback
loops
The
sensitivity of the climate system to increased levels of GHG appears
to be much higher than previously expected due to many powerful
reinforcing feedbacks
 |
| From: Arctic Warming due to Snow and Ice Demise |
Arctic
temperature amplification from exponentially declining sea ice and
spring snow cover are the strongest feedbacks in our climate system
today. The average albedo (reflectivity) of the Arctic region has
decreased from 52% to a present day value of 48% over 3 or 4 decades.
The increased absorption of energy in the Arctic has increased the
temperature at high latitudes at rates up to 6 to 8x the global
average temperature change. The reduced temperature difference
between the Arctic and equator has reduced the west to east speed of
the jet streams causing them to slow and become wavier and more
fractured, and directly causing a large change in the statistics of
our global weather.
Methane
gas emissions have been rapidly rising in the Arctic region from the
terrestrial permafrost and the continental shelf marine sediments,
most notably on the ESAS (Eastern Siberia Arctic Shelf). The
extremely potent ability of methane to warm the planet (global
warming potential GWP is >150, 86, and 34 times for methane
relative to carbon dioxide on a few year, several decade, and century
timescale, respectively) makes increased emissions an extremely
dangerous risk to our well-being on the planet.
My
overall assessment
Our
climate system is presently undergoing preliminary stages of abrupt
climate change.
If allowed to continue, the planet climate system is quite capable of
undergoing an average global temperature increase of 5°C to 6°C
over a decade or two. Precedence for changes at such a large rate can
be found at numerous times in the paleo-records. From my chair, I
conclude that it is vital that we slash greenhouse gas emissions and
undergo a crash program of climate engineering to cool the Arctic
region and keep the methane in place in the permafrost and ocean
sediments.
.
 |
| Paul Beckwith |
Paul
Beckwith is part-time professor with
the laboratory for paleoclimatology and climatology, department of
geography, University of Ottawa. Paul teaches climatology/meteorology
and does PhD research on 'Abrupt climate change in the past and
present'. Paul holds an M.Sc. in laser physics and a B.Eng. in
engineering physics and reached the rank of chess master in a
previous life. Click
here to view Paul's earlier posts at
the Arctic-news blog.
Related
-
What's wrong with the weather?
-
Arctic News: Polar jet stream appears hugely deformed
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