Thursday 18 September 2014

The Scottish independence vote

Today has to be a day to concentrate on Scottish independence.  Reflecting on this there are parallels with Ukraine.  In that case you have centuries of a common past and a break from that past can bring nothing less than disaster to ordinary people. The main difference is that, in the case of Scotland, you have no external power interested in fomenting trouble.

But this seems to be 'the logic of history' (put in quotation marks quite consciously).  We are living in an era where everything from economies, the nation state - and living systems - are breaking apart - and collapsing.

So perhaps there is a certain inevitability about this whatever way the vote ('too close to call') goes.

All that notwithstanding, my sentiments align fully with those of George Galloway who says moves to independence for Scotland ARE NOTHING LIKE similar struggles of the Palestinians and the Irish - both of whom have seen foreign occupation.

Scottish independence: David Cameron is becoming the George Bush of Britain

He ignored the referendum and – worse – the Scottish people



Towards the end of 2008, a debate erupted amongst American historians and pundits about whether George W. Bush was the worst president of all time, or merely one of the worst. The case against him rested on a wilful, unnecessary foreign war born of lies that consumed thousands of American lives and untold wealth, and laid waste to poor, benighted Iraq.

With a much longer history, the competition for worst prime minister of the UK is fiercer. But the current incumbent is compiling a record that looks hard to beat.  David Cameron is on the verge of losing Scotland, after which it will fall to his Conservative government to oversee the break-up of the United Kingdom.  And then, having lost this entirely winnable election, where the weight of economic, geopolitical and historical arguments lay overwhelmingly on his side, he will stumble into an EU referendum to which he foolishly committed. What chance will this diminished political figure and his divided, demoralized troops have of winning that battle?  If that election were held today, his chances would be slim. By then he will have none.



And so David Cameron will be the British Prime Minister who lost Scotland and fell out of Europe. As a politician he will be a failure. But for the UK he will be far worse – an historic disaster.

And how unnecessary, how fecklessly incompetent it will all have been. The mistake was not to agree to a Scottish referendum. To the contrary, this was a progressive decision, rightly celebrated, that recognized a people’s democratic right to self-determination. The colossal mistake, rather, was to not fight that contest himself – to fail to commit his government and the nation to its own self-preservation. By handing the campaign over to his political opponents on the assumption that he could never speak to the Scottish heart, it appeared – and he allowed us all to infer – that he did not care. He was too busy to keep the country together. He had more important things to do.
Read more: Scottish independence live
On a knife edge: Two polls put No at 52%
Welcome to the nation formerly known as UK
Analysis: What Yes would mean - the experts' view
Worse still is the extent to which this is the story of a death foretold. Twenty-six years ago another conservative leader held a referendum, this one on his continued rule. He, too, lost what should have been a winnable contest with a campaign based on threats and fear that never listened to voters and took the outcome for granted.The recent film “No” depicts how a team of young, underfunded, brash opponents mounted a campaign based on hope, joy, and a deep belief in the decency of ordinary Chileans, to win an unlikely victory and topple the dictator. I lived through those events, and the echoes in Scotland of fresh hope and a different future are striking.


David Cameron is no Augusto Pinochet, of course. But he has repeated the dictator’s blunders on a far larger scale. He should have spent the last year showing (not just telling) Scottish voters that he, the government, and the British people love Scotland, value Scotland, respect its history, its immense contributions to knowledge, industry, the arts… the list goes on; the argument was an easy one to make. He should have explained that peoples intertwined by history, geography and blood belong together in one nation. He needed to argue passionately, as though he cared, that the Scots are British and the British are Scots, and absence diminishes both. He needed to build a positive, inclusive campaign of hope and possibility that convinced Scots that the politicians pushing for independence are scoundrels bent on self-aggrandisement.

But instead he ignored the referendum and – worse – the Scottish people. He sent others to win them over with a small-minded campaign based on fear; a campaign that ensured that even a narrow victory for the Union would be pyrrhic, grudging, and rather than settling matters would entrench divisions and bitterness on both sides.

In another country and another time, an American president rallied his people by explaining that they had “nothing to fear but fear itself”. In doing so he lit a candle in their darkest hour, ennobled them, and led them to a greater dawn. Cameron told Scots they should be afraid. In doing so he diminished them. Now they are set to return the favour.

Jean-Paul Faguet is Professor of the Political Economy of Development at the London School of Economics and Political Science


George Galloway on Scottish independence - Sky News - 9th September 2014





George Galloway on Scotland Decides - The Big Big Debate - BBC 1 - 11th September 2014




As George Galloway says, Scotland is not going to be a “cool-water Cuba”. The leader of the Scottish Independence Party is no progressive. If he is gambling on oil he has already lost

Scottish independence: Five reasons Salmond is secretly hoping for a No vote
Is the huge gamble on oil keeping him up at night?



17 September, 2014

He has made realising the dream of an independent Scotland his life’s work. But as the nitty-gritty issues behind that dream have been debated endlessly over recent months deep down is the leader of the ‘yes’ campaign is having second thoughts? Here are five things that maybe keeping Alex Salmond up at night, and why he may be secretly praying his countrymen vote No tomorrow.
1) He’s taking a huge gamble on oil. All of the Yes Campaign’s budgeting for the future depends on the ability to raise a certain amount of revenue from North Sea Oil. But that is horribly unpredictable. All of the published predictions – both optimistic and pessimist are just that: predictions. It’s a pretty scary thing to base the future of an independent country on.

2) He can’t guarantee NHS spending in an independent Scotland – despite what he’s said. The NHS north of the border faces the same problems that it does in England – a rising elderly population, new and expensive treatments and restricted money to pay for them unless you put up taxes. While the rest of the UK is giving a chunk of money to the Scottish Government – he can blame them for the cutbacks. When that stops he can’t.

3) He knows – but can’t admit it in the campaign – that the rest of the UK will never accept a currency union. Pressure on English politicians will be too great from the rest of the country ever to agree to a union where England takes responsibility for another country’s debt but has no control over its spending. Even if it was the sensible thing to do the politics of England in a post-independence world are such that it would never happen.


4) In the short term some businesses – and maybe a lot of businesses – will reduce their presence in Scotland. Negotiations for independence will create uncertainty, and businesses whose only loyalty is to their shareholders hate uncertainty. They will not wait to ‘see how things turn out’ – they will unsentimentally make plans for the worst, and implement them before a final agreement over separation is reached. That will not be poplar in Scotland.

5) But if it’s a no vote then none of this is a problem. His Government gets more power, more money and can carry on blaming London if things go wrong. The SNP will cruise to another victory in the Holyrood elections on the back of the independence campaign – which he will be seen to have won even if he loses. He maybe scathing about Devo Max now – but just two years ago he wanted that to be an option on the referendum question. He may be secretly hoping that’s what he gets now.



The Guardian's live coverage is available HERE


#Indyref: Pranksters erect fake border posts between Scotland and England

With Scotland's independence referendum just day away, a group of jokers decided to lighten the tone of the debate by erecting a spoof border post at Carter Bar, the point at which the A68 highway crosses from England into Scotland - 

LIVE UPDATES http://on.rt.com/5z7gg8





What’s left is us’: Final-day push before historic Scottish independence vote


RT,

17 September, 2014



Campaigners on both sides of Scotland's independence referendum are trying to sway over 4 million registered voters in a last-day push before the historic vote gets underway.

Voters in Scotland will head to polls on Thursday to decide whether they want to stay in the 307-year-union with the rest of the UK or become independent.
Turnout is expected to be massive, with 4,285,323 people having registered to vote by the September 2 deadline. With 2012 Scottish government figures estimating 4,410,288 people aged 16 and over reside in Scotland, up to 97 percent of eligible voters could turn out to cast their ballots.

Three new polls, one by Opinium for the Daily Telegraph, another by ICM for the Scotsman, and a third by Survation for the Daily Mail, were published on Tuesday evening. With undecided voters excluded, they all suggested a lead for ‘No’ of 52 percent to 48 percent in favor of independence.

Alistair Darling, the head of the ‘No’ campaign, told the BBC that Scots should have “no doubt you can have stronger powers to raise the money you need and it doesn’t matter what’s happening in the rest of the UK.”

I think people are clear that the three non-nationalist parties are promising more powers in relation to tax and in relation to welfare on top of more powers that have already been promised,” he said. “I believe you can get a better, stronger Scotland within the UK. We’ve all built the UK together and benefited from pooling resources in good times and bad.”

Alex Salmond, the head of the ‘Yes’ campaign, told the BBC. “The central mistake that the ‘No’ campaign has made is to tell the people of Scotland that the land of Adam Smith is not capable of running its own matter financially.”

He dismissed the new deal offered by Westminster to grant Scotland greater powers as “the same package that was offered last spring and was repacked in desperation.”

On the final day of campaigning, in a letter to the people of Scotland, Salmond wrote, "The talking is nearly done. The campaigns will have had their say. What's left is just us - the people who live and work here. The only people with a vote. The people who matter.”


A letter to the people of Scotland. "Let's do this" http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/first-minister-letter-voters-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%9Clets-do-this%E2%80%9D 

Better Together leader Alistair Darling and former Prime Minister Gordon Brown will lead a ‘Love Scotland, Vote No’ rally in Glasgow on the eve of the vote.
Darling said, "I'm not going. This is my country. I'm staying." He told the Today program that he thought there would be a ‘No’ vote, but even if people were to vote for independence, he would do "the best I possibly can" for Scotland.
Darling also warned that, whichever way the vote went, there would be hard work healing divisions in Scottish society which had emerged during the campaign.
About 1,500 independence supporters bearing Saltire flags, badges and blue campaign T-shirts gathered for a rally in Glasgow on Tuesday evening.

Meanwhile, 14 former British armed forces chiefs warned in an open letter in the Sun that “a vote for separation would undermine both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom’s defense.”

At risk is the most successful alliance in history and one which has seen men and women from all parts of the country play their part in securing the liberties we now enjoy,” the letter stated.

On Thursday, Scotland votes - and the future of the UK is at stake. Please help keep our family of nations together: https://www.facebook.com/DavidCameronOfficial/posts/845349682156018 
Indeed, fundamental issues will be on the negotiation table if Scotland votes for independence, such as currency union, EU membership, immigration, healthcare and what share of the UK’s national debt Scotland would take.

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister David Cameron has admitted he is "nervous" ahead of the Scots going to the polls, but said he is confident they will vote against a split.

"Well of course everyone who cares about our United Kingdom - and I care passionately about our United Kingdom - is nervous," he said to reporters during a visit to Fleet, Hampshire.



Cameron also emphasized that he will not stand down if Scotland votes for independence.

"My name is not on the ballot paper,” he said. “What's on the ballot paper is 'Does Scotland want to stay in the United Kingdom, or does Scotland want to separate itself from the United Kingdom?


"That's the only question that will be decided on Thursday night. The question about my future will be decided at the British general election coming soon."

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