The big squeeze: warning over incomes as Britain goes on strike

Families with children will be worse off in 2016 than 14 years earlier, analysis of George Osborne's autumn statement finds

the Guardian,

Thursday 1 December 2011

High inflation, cuts and the longest period of wage stagnation on record will see the spending power of the average British family plummet over the next five years, a leading thinktank warned on Wednesday.

An Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis predicted that average incomes, adjusted for inflation, will fall by 3% this year and further in 2012. The director of the IFS, Paul Johnson, said: "In the period 2009-10 to 2012-13, real median household incomes will drop by a whopping 7.4% – a record matched only by the falls seen between 1974 and 1977."

As up to 2 million public sector workers walked out in protest against changes to their pensions, and signs emerged of a potentially damaging rift within the Liberal Democrats in the wake of George Osborne's autumn statement, the thinktank warned that families with children will be worse off in 2016 than they were 14 years earlier as they cope with more than a decade of austerity.

The IFS's warning and the strikes came as The oil price shocks of the 1970s forced the then Labour government to survive on IMF handouts and push through steep spending cuts and public-sector wage freezes. But wages recovered their previous spending power within four years.

the world's major central banks announced joint emergency measures to stop the international financial system from freezing up, and pushing the global economy into another recession. The measures included cutting emergency interest rates on dollar loans to cash-strapped European banks.

A Downing Street spokesman said the emergency measures were necessary because the markets were under extreme strain. "We are experiencing a credit crunch and that central bank action is about trying to mitigate the effects of that credit crunch," the spokesman said.

Not since the Callaghan government of the mid-70s have families come near to suffering a similar loss of income as the one now predicted to hit Britain over the next five years, the IFS said.

Lower income groups, it confirmed, will bear the brunt of the government's latest cuts, outlined by George Osborne on Tuesday. The chancellor's autumn statement signalled that the deteriorating economic outlook meant that there would be two more years of austerity than originally planned in his March budget.

Anti-poverty campaigners said the IFS figures showed that the coalition had shifted the burden of paying for the deficit on to the most vulnerable.

Alison Garnham, chief executive of the charity Child Poverty Action Group, said: "The IFS analysis confirms that the chancellor's new tax and benefit measures are a takeaway from low-income families with children to those at the middle and top. It is particularly perverse to reduce incomes of the lowest-paid working families by reducing tax credits when this is the group the government claims it wants to help through improved work incentives."

The IFS analysis of the UK's current economic woes, and the coalition's reaction to them, both suggest that real median household incomes – where higher wages and salaries are adjusted to account for higher prices – will be no higher in 2015 than they were in 2002. A couple with no children typically enjoyed a weekly income of £437 in 2002 but by 2015 that will have dropped in real terms to £433. For a couple with two children the weekly income falls from £612 in 2002 to £606 in 2015. In the nine years since 2002 the cost of living has increased 30%.

The IFS analysis showed the unemployed and pensioners living on state benefits would do better than working families after benefits were linked to the 5.2% rise in inflation. Johnson said: "Failure to index some elements of tax credits, and the reversal of decisions to increase child tax credits in real terms, will leave some poorer families worse off and will lead to an increase in measured child poverty."

The IFS based its estimates for the squeeze on incomes on forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent watchdog that oversees Treasury spending plans and which published its own outlook for the economy alongside Osborne's statement.

It blamed a repeat oil price shock for most of the cuts in real incomes suffered by UK households. High energy prices were the largest single element fuelling an inflationary spiral that left many families worse off.

TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said there was an "unprecedented crisis" in living standards. "You can't build a sustainable economic recovery on the back of people getting poorer," he said.

"Rather than further hammering consumer confidence with public sector pay caps and cuts in working tax credits, the government needs to put greater emphasis on wage-led growth, starting with a fairer tax system where everyone – including the super-rich – pays their share."

Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said the IFS report revealed the poorest 30% of households would lose more than three times as much as the richest 30%.

Official data this week showed UK families' weekly spending fell last year to the lowest in real terms for at least seven years. They cut back on spending on leisure to try to pay for housing, energy and transport costs. One of the big pressures facing households is high inflation, which has left most people worse off in real terms.

Pay growth for workers in Britain hit a record low between 2010 and 2011, according to official data last week. Pay was up just 0.4% on a year ago in terms of gross weekly earnings, meaning that incomes are tumbling in real terms, given that inflation stands at 5%. The Office for National Statistics also said the gap between Britain's highest and lowest paid workers had widened dramatically over the past year.

The IFS said one group whose incomes "are certainly being squeezed" is public sector workers. Its analysis suggests that the two years of on average 1%-a-year pay rises in the public sector to follow the current two-year pay freeze would be enough to wipe out the estimated pay gap between men in the public sector and private sector.

The thinktank puts the gap between public and private earners at 4.3% for men, taking into account education, age and qualification levels. For women the public sector premium is 10.5% and for both men and women it stands at 7.5%.

The IFS also looked into differences in public sector benefits across the UK. "Looking at pay alone, public sector workers appear, on average, to do relatively badly in London and the south-east and really rather well in some other areas including Wales and the north of England," Johnson said. The findings echo Osborne's move on Tuesday to ask public sector pay review bodies to look into how pay can be made more responsive to local labour markets.

Following forecasts for contraction at the end of this year and barely any growth next year, Osborne was forced to concede on Tuesday that the UK risked falling into recession. The resulting strain on the public finances led the chancellor to pencil in two more years of substantial cuts.

"That will extend to six years the period for which total spending will have been cut year-on-year," said Johnson. "One begins to run out of superlatives for describing quite how unprecedented that is.

"Certainly there has been no period like it in the UK in the last 60 years."

A second Iranian nuclear facility has exploded, as diplomatic tensions rise between the West and Tehran

the Australian,

30 November, 2011

AN IRANIAN nuclear facility has been hit by a huge explosion, the second such blast in a month, prompting speculation that Tehran's military and atomic sites are under attack.

Satellite imagery seen by The Times confirmed that a blast that rocked the city of Isfahan on Monday struck the uranium enrichment facility there, despite denials by Tehran.

The images clearly showed billowing smoke and destruction, negating Iranian claims yesterday that no such explosion had taken place. Israeli intelligence officials told The Times that there was "no doubt" that the blast struck the nuclear facilities at Isfahan and that it was "no accident".

The explosion at Iran's third-largest city came as satellite images emerged of the damage caused by one at a military base outside Tehran two weeks ago that killed about 30 members of the Revolutionary Guard, including General Hassan Moghaddam, the head of the Iranian missile defence program.

Iran claimed that the Tehran explosion occurred during testing on a new weapons system designed to strike at Israel. But several Israeli officials have confirmed that the blast was intentional and part of an effort to target Iran's nuclear weapons program.

On Monday, Isfahan residents reported a blast that shook tower blocks in the city at about 2.40pm and seeing a cloud of smoke rising over the nuclear facility on the edge of the city.

"This caused damage to the facilities in Isfahan, particularly to the elements we believe were involved in storage of raw materials," said one military intelligence source.

He would not confirm or deny Israel's involvement in the blast, instead saying that there were "many different parties looking to sabotage, stop or coerce Iran into stopping its nuclear weapons program".

Iran went into frantic denial yesterday as news of the explosion at Isfahan emerged. Alireza Zaker-Isfahani, the city's governor, claimed that the blast had been caused by a military exercise in the area but state-owned agencies in Tehran soon removed this story and issued a government denial that any explosion had taken place at all.

On Monday, Dan Meridor. the Israeli Intelligence Minister, said: "There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat."

Major-General Giora Eiland, Israel's former director of national security, told Israel's army radio that the Isfahan blast was no accident. "There aren't many coincidences, and when there are so many events there is probably some sort of guiding hand, though perhaps it's the hand of God," he said.

A former Israeli intelligence official cited at least two other explosions that have "successfully neutralised" Iranian bases associated with the Shahab-3, the medium-range missile that could be adapted to carry a nuclear warhead. "This is something everyone in the West wanted to see happen," he added.

Iran has repeatedly denied the existence of a nuclear weapons program, and strongly condemned the International Atomic Energy Agency's report last month that accused Iran of trying to build a nuclear weapon.

Doomsday in the Persian Gulf?

Markets brace for possible attack on Iran

the Globe and Mail,

30 November, 2011

Oil consuming nations, hedge funds and big oil refineries are quietly preparing for a Doomsday scenario: An attack on Iran that would halt oil supplies from OPEC’s second-largest producer.

Most political analysts and oil traders say the probability of military action is low, but they caution the risks of such an event have risen as the West and Israel grow increasingly alarmed by signs that Tehran is building nuclear weapons.

That has Chinese refiners drawing up new contingency plans, hedge funds taking out options on $170 (U.S.) crude, and energy experts scrambling to determine how a disruption in Iran’s oil supply -- however remote the possibility -- would impact world markets.

With production of about 3.5 million barrels per day, Iran supplies 2.5 per cent of the world’s oil.

“I think the market has paid too little attention to the possibility of an attack on Iran. It’s still an unlikely event, but more likely than oil traders have been expecting,” says Bob McNally, once a White House energy advisor and now head of consultancy Rapidan Group.

Rising tensions were clear this week as Iranian protesters stormed two British diplomatic missions in Tehran in response to sanctions, smashing windows and burning the British flag.

The attacks prompted condemnation from London, Washington and the United Nations. Iran warned of “instability in global security.”

While traders in Europe prepare for a possible EU boycott of imports from Iran, mounting evidence elsewhere points to long-odds preparation for an even more severe outcome.

In Beijing, the foreign ministry has asked at least one major Iranian crude oil importer to review its contingency planning in case Iranian shipments stop.

In India, refiners are leafing through an unpublished report produced in March to look at fall-back options in the event of a major disruption.

And the International Energy Agency, the club of industrialized nations founded after the Arab oil embargo that co-ordinated the release of emergency oil stocks during Libya’s civil war, last week circulated to member countries an updated four-page factsheet detailing Iran’s oil industry and trade.

The document, not made public but obtained by Reuters, lists the vital statistics of Iran’s oil sector, including destinations by country. Two-thirds of its exports are shipped to China, India, Japan and South Korea; a fifth goes to the European Union.

Hedge funds, particularly those with a global macro-economic bias, have taken note, and are buying deep out-of-the-money call options that could pay off big if prices surge, senior market sources at two major banks said.

Open interest in $130 and $150 December 2012 options for U.S. crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by over 20 per cent last week. Interest in the $170 call more than doubled to over 11,000 lots, or 11 million barrels. Still more traded over-the-counter, sources say.

McNally says that oil prices could surge as high as $175 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz -- conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil supply, including all of Iran’s exports -- is shut in.

IAEA cites “credible information” 

This month’s speculation of an attack on Iran is the most intense since 2007, when reports showing that Iran had not halted uranium enrichment work fuelled speculation that President George W. Bush could launch some kind of action during his last year in office. Those fears helped fuel a 36 per cent rise in oil prices in the second half of the year.

The latest anxiety was set off by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Nov. 8 report citing “credible” information that Iran had worked on designing an atomic bomb. A new round of sanctions followed, including the possibility that Europe could follow the United States in banning imports.

That alone would roil markets, but ultimately would likely just drive discounted crude sales to other consumers like China.

A more alarming -- if more remote -- possibility would be an attack by Israel, which has grown increasingly alarmed by the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Nov. 19 that it was a matter of months, not years, before it would be too late to stop Tehran.

In that context, every tremor has been unnerving for markets. Some experts say an explosion at an Iranian military base earlier in the month was the work of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. An unusually large tender by Israel’s main electricity supplier to buy distillate fuel raised eyebrows, although it was blamed on a shortage of natural gas imports.

Refiners brace 

No country has more reason to be concerned than China, which now gets one-tenth of its crude imports from Iran. Shipments have risen a third this year to 547,000 barrels per day as other countries including Japan reduce their dependence. Sinopec, Asia’s top refiner, is the world’s largest Iranian crude buyer.

The Foreign Ministry and the National Development and Reform Commission, which effectively oversees the oil sector, have asked companies that import the crude to prepare contingency plans for a major disruption in supply, a source with a state-owned company told Reuters.

The precautionary measure preceded the latest geopolitical angst and is broadly in line with Beijing’s growing concern over its dependence on imported energy. Earlier this year it issued a notice for firms to prepare for disruptions from Yemen.

But the focus has sharpened recently, the source said.

“The plan is not particularly for the tension this time, but it seems the government is paying exceptionally great attention to it this time,” said the source on condition of anonymity.

In India, which gets 12 per cent of its imports from Iran, refiners had a potential preview of coming events when the country’s central bank scrapped a clearing house system last December, forcing refiners to scramble to arrange other means of payment in order to keep crude shipments flowing.

That incident -- in addition to the Arab Spring uprising and the Japanese earthquake -- prompted the government to document a brief but broad strategy for handling major disruptions.

The document, which has not been reported in detail, says that India could sustain fuel supplies to the market in the event of an import stoppage for about 30 days thanks to domestic storage, and would turn to unconventional and heavier imported crude as a fall-back.

It also urged the country’s state-owned refiners to work on developing domestic storage facilities for major OPEC suppliers, consider hiring supertankers to use as floating storage and to sign term deals to price crude on a delivered basis, a copy of the document seen by Reuters shows.

The government has not tasked refiners with additional preparations this month, industry sources say. And in any event, there’s not much they could do.

“If they cut supplies we will be left with no option than to buy from the spot market or from other Middle East suppliers,” said a senior official with state-run MRPL, Iran’s top India client.

To be sure, there’s only so much any refiner can do. The gap left by Iran will trigger a frenzy of buying on the spot market for substitute barrels, likely leading the IEA to release emergency reserves, as it did following the civil war in Libya, or other countries like Saudi Arabia to step into the breach.

“We probably need to do this ASAP but are putting our heads in the sand so far,” said one oil trader in Europe.

For refiners like Italy’s Eni and Hellenic Petroleum, the most pressing issue is not necessarily an unexpected outage but an import boycott imposed by their government. France has won limited support for such an embargo, but faces resistance from some nations that fear it could inflict more economic damage.

Cheap punts 

Unlike in 2007, there’s not yet much evidence that a significant geopolitical risk premium is being factored into prices.

European benchmark Brent crude oil has rallied 4 per cent in the past two days, partly due to accelerating discussion of a European boycott as well as Tuesday’s unrest in Tehran, during which protesters stormed two British diplomatic compounds.

But it is also down 4 per cent since the IAEA’s Nov. 8 report. Analysts say that it’s impossible to extract any Iran-specific pricing from a host of other recently supportive factors, including new hope to end Europe’s debt crisis, strong global distillate demand and upbeat U.S. consumer data.

“I don’t think there’s very much evidence (of an Iran premium),” says Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup and a former State Department energy policy adviser.

And he does not see an attack as likely: “I think it’s a low probability event. Maybe higher than a year ago, but still low.”

But that is not stopping some from looking ahead. Oil prices would likely spike to at least $140 a barrel if Israel attacked Iran, according to the most benign of four scenarios put forward this week by Greg Sharenow, a portfolio manager at bond house PIMCO and a former Goldman Sachs oil trader.

He refused to predict a limit for prices under the most extreme “Doomsday” scenario in which disruptions spread beyond Iran and the Straits of Hormuz is blocked.

With that in mind, hedge funds are buying cheap options in a punt on an extreme outage. For about $1,500 per contract, a buyer can get the right to deliver a Dec. 2012 futures contract at $150 a barrel; even if prices do not rise that high, the value of the options contract could increase tenfold.

The spark of demand for upside price protection this month is an abrupt reversal from most of this year, when the bias was toward puts that would hedge the risk of economic calamity.

“The kind of put skew we were seeing in the last three to six months was remarkable with people preparing for disaster - the Planet of the Apes trade, another massive market crash,” says Chris Thorpe, executive director of global energy derivatives at INTL FC Stone.

“Only in the last three or four weeks has there been increased call buying.”

Options remain relatively costly compared to earlier in the year, with implied volatility -- a measure of option cost -- of 43 per cent above this year’s average of just below 35 per cent, the CBOE Oil Volatility index shows.

But nonetheless it’s clear that for some funds the potential upside of violence in Iran means that interest is increasing.

Says Thorpe: “It’s at the back of people’s minds.”

Syrian civil war drags in Mideast, global powers

As Syria's uprising escalates into outright civil war and begins to drag in other states, it risks fuelling not only wider regional confrontation but also growing antagonism between the world's great powers.

Reuters,

30 November, 2011

After months of largely peaceful demonstrations in the face of a bloody government crackdown, Syrian opposition fighters look to be behind an ever rising number of attacks on forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.

That in itself could mark the beginning of a long, bloody, open-ended civil war. And speculation about foreign military intervention could even spark a Cold War-style face-off between Russia and the United States.

Analysts and foreign governments have long said they believed Iran was providing military and logistics support to Damascus, and some now suspect the opposition too is now receiving foreign weapons.

That, many analysts fear, risks further fuelling the growing regional confrontation between Tehran and its local enemies, particularly the Gulf states and emerging heavyweight Turkey.

"The problem with conflict in Syria is that it is much harder to contain than what we saw in Libya," said Anthony Skinner, Middle East analyst for UK-based consultancy Maplecroft.

"It has much wider regional implications that have largely been ignored. It feeds into what is already happening in the Gulf, as well as elsewhere."

For now, the international action against Assad remains sanctions and diplomatic pressure. Syria's weekend suspension from the Arab League appears to have change little on the ground, and that raises the prospect of a more direct approach.

This week, Russian media reported that Moscow would be sending its flagship aircraft carrier to Syria. Officials talked down any link to recent events, but most analysts said it looked like a clear signal to Western powers in particular to back off.

Having watched as the United Nations Security Council resolution on Libya led to regime change, other emerging powers such as China also seem keen to draw a line in the sand.

Few expect a Libya-style military operation in the much more complex and militarily powerful Syria, but France has talked of creating some kind of "humanitarian corridor" perhaps protected by "armed observers". Turkey, which would likely have to be the primary provider of any foreign forces, has said it does not rule any scenario out.

SUPERPOWER CONFRONTATION?

Washington is believed reluctant to get involved. But the presence of one of its own aircraft carriers within striking distance of Syria has provoked speculation.

"The Russians are signalling that on Syria, it is not a situation where they will publicly protest but quietly and privately acquiesce," says Nikolas Gvsodev, professor of national security studies at the US Naval War College.

"The danger is that it is not clear what they are prepared to do to stop open intervention."

Outright military confrontation between the superpowers remained extremely unlikely, he said, but a worsening of relations would have real costs. Moscow has begun to talk increasingly tough on a planned U.S. missile shield in Europe, saying it would reengineer its nuclear ballistic missiles to pass through it if necessary.

"I think the Russians really were spooked by what happened in Libya and are determined to see that nothing like that happens again," said Nigel Inkster, a former deputy chief of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and now director of transnational threats and political risk at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"In that they are joined by China and most of... the BRICs... (However) since there is clearly no appetite for a military intervention in Syria, the Russian navy's journey looks likely to be wasted."

A NEW MIDEAST BATTLEGROUND?

For many analysts, the real worry arising from Syria is the risk it could further supercharge existing tensions over Iran. Some believe Syria is already becoming the latest battleground in a largely hidden war raging across the region.

Whilst the Israeli media in particular continues to speculate on the prospects of a military strike on Tehran's nuclear program, most analysts believe such action remains unlikely.

Neither Israel nor the West has the military capability to destroy the nuclear program outright, many analysts say, whilst the potential for a devastating retaliation against oil targets in the Gulf could have devastating results for both sides.

Instead, many analysts believe what the region is seeing is a surge in covert action by both sides. That, they suspect, could explain both a string of recent "accidental" explosions at a number of Iranian nuclear facilities as well as a flurry of rocket strikes on Israel through perceived Tehran proxy groups.

The ratcheting up of sanctions and the storming of Britain's embassy there on Thursday by an angry mob all fit in to the wider picture, they say. So, too, does Syria, providing a potential incentive for Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar to take a much more activist strategy to help any rebels.

"What you're seeing in the Middle East with the withdrawal of the U.S. from Iraq is Iran moving into an increasingly stronger position," said Reva Bhalla, director of analysis at U.S. private intelligence company Stratfor.

"If Assad survives in Syria, he will also be increasingly isolated and dependent on the Iranians, which will reinforce existing regional fears of Iran's growing influence."

Further stoking events, many believe, is a much wider tussle for power as the realisation dawns that some two centuries of regional dominance by outside powers - first colonial Britain and France, then the US - may be drawing to a close.

"We shouldn't be surprised that the Russians - in addition to the Turks and Iranians - feel like they've got an opportunity to expand their political-military influence in the eastern Mediterranean," said Thomas Barnett, US-based chief strategist at consultancy Wikistrat.

"Nature abhors vacuums and so do rising great powers."

Chinese exports to Europe

China’s Exports to Europe ‘Falling Off Cliff’

Bloomberg,

Nov 30, 2011 12:09 AM GMT+1300

Slumping shipping costs show exports to Europe from China are “falling off a cliff” as the euro- region crisis chokes off consumer spending, according to RS Platou Markets AS, a unit of Norway’s biggest shipbroking group.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows how the cost of hauling goods to Europe from China is falling faster than rates for deliveries to the U.S. The price for shipments to Europe is down 39 percent to $511 per twenty-foot box since Aug. 31, according to figures from Clarkson Securities Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. That’s more than double the 18 percent slide in the cost to the U.S. West Coast, measured in 40-foot units.

“European imports from China will be much, much lower going forward,” said Rahul Kapoor, a Singapore-based analyst at Platou Markets. “If you see falling freight rates, that would imply that European demand is falling off a cliff.”

Growth in euro-area economies will slow to 0.5 percent next year, compared with 2.2 percent expansion in the U.S., according to economists’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup Inc. also cut its growth forecast for China today, partly citing the possibility of a European recession.

While shipping rates were affected earlier this year by an expansion of the fleet that plies the Europe-China route, stable capacity since August shows the latest drop is a result of weak demand, Kapoor said in an interview today. U.S. deliveries are faring better than those to Europe, he said. Kapoor’s company is a unit of RS Platou ASA, owner of RS Platou Shipbrokers

'Global meltdown is upon us'

We are in trouble.....

We are in trouble the global melt down is upon us....... 

A Truth Video from UK-Collapse.com

Coverage of Eurozone slide to collapse

Eurozone to collapse in ten days?

From RT
Joe Wiesenthal from Business Insider interviewed.

Senate votes fascist powers

Senate Passes Bill Allowing Indefinite Detention of Americans

Zero Hedge,

30 November, 2011

From http://www.washingtonsblog.com/

The Senate passed a bill today allowing indefinite detention of American citizens living within the U.S.

While some have claimed that this is incorrect, and that American citizens would be exempted from the indefinite detention within U.S. borders authorized by the Act, the Committee chairman who co-sponsored the bill – Carl Levin – stated today in Senate debate that it could apply to American citizens.

Levin cited the Supreme Court case of Hamdi which ruled that American citizens can be treated as enemy combatants:

“The Supreme Court has recently ruled there is no bar to the United States holding one of its own citizens as an enemy combatant,” said Levin. “This is the Supreme Court speaking.“

Under questioning from Rand Paul, co-sponsor John McCain said that Americans suspected of terrorism could be sent to Guantanamo.

You can hear the statements from Levin and McCain on today’s broadcast of KFPA’s Letters and Politics.

As Raw Story notes:

The provision would authorize the military to indefinitely detain individuals — including U.S. citizens — without charge or trial.

“If these provisions pass, we could see American citizens being sent to Guantanamo Bay,” Rand said in the video. “This should be alarming to everyone watching this proceeding today. Because it puts every single American citizen at risk.”

“There is one thing and one thing only protecting innocent Americans from being detained at will at the hands of a too-powerful state — our Constitution, and the checks we put on government power,” he continued. “Should we err today and remove some of the most important checks on state power in the name of fighting terrorism, well, then the terrorists have won.”

“Detaining citizens without a court trial is not American. In fact, this alarming arbitrary power is reminiscent of Egypt’s ‘permanent’ Emergency Law authorizing preventive indefinite detention, a law that provoked ordinary Egyptians to tear their country apart last spring and risk their lives to fight.”

The debate is also being streamed live on CSpan-2.

While passage of the bill would make the Founding Fathers roll in their grave, it might not change that much.   As former constitutional lawyer Glenn Greenwald notes:

With very few exceptions, the McCain-Levin bill, awful though it is, doesn’t create any powers beyond what the O Admin thinks it now has.

Indeed, the U.S. has been a de facto police state for many years.

“A MIDDLE EAST DICTATORSHIP HAS MORE DEMOCRATIC ACCOUNTABILITY FOR ABUSE OF POWER, INCLUDING TORTURE, THAN THE US UNDER OBAMA”

The same Senate is now considering a bill to repeal the prohibitions against torture:

The ACLU and over 30 other organizations sent a letter to the Senate asking them to oppose an effort in Congress that threatens to revive the use of torture and other inhumane interrogation techniques. If passed, an amendment introduced by Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) to the Defense Authorization bill would roll back torture prevention measures that Congress overwhelmingly approved in the 2005 McCain Anti-Torture Amendment, as well as a 2009 Executive Order on ensuring lawful interrogations. It would also require the administration to create a secret list of approved interrogation techniques in a classified annex to the existing interrogation field manual.

In a related development, republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann renewed her attack on the prohibition of waterboarding and other forms of torture ….

Glenn Greenwald pointed out last week:

Andrew Sullivan … today noted that the U.S. under Obama imposes even less accountability for abuse of power and war crimes than does Bahrain:

Bahrain’s Sunni government promised “no immunity” for anyone suspected of abuses and said it would propose creating a permanent human rights watchdog commission. “All those who have broken the law or ignored lawful orders and instructions will be held accountable,” said a government statement, which says the report acknowledges that the “systematic practice of mistreatment” ended shortly after martial law was repealed on June 1.

As Andrew put it: “So a Middle East dictatorship has more democratic accountability for abuse of power, including torture, than the US under Obama.” Beyond things like this and the facts set forth in the last paragraph here, perhaps Andrew could use today’s post of his to help clear up the towering mystery he raised yesterday of liberal disenchantment with Obama. That American war criminals are being aggressively shielded from any and all accountability is not an ancillary matter but one of enduring historical significance.

That’s okay, though, because – according to top military, intelligence and civilian experts on interrogation – torture:

(1) Doesn’t produce actionable intelligence

(2) Reduces national security

(3) Creates more terrorists

(4) And is only useful for:

(A) Producing false confessions; and

(B) As a way of terrorizing the population

Massive strikes in Europe

More coverage later.

UK: Public sector strikes 

Live coverage of today's mass union strike action by teachers, border control staff, health workers and others over public sector pensions. 

• UK transport network suffers little disruption despite biggest strike in 30 years

• Only 58% of schools closed, despite predictions of 90%

• Government denies union claims that talks are over 

• Cabinet Office minister brands 2m-strong strike "inappropriate, untimely and irresponsible"

Live coverage from the Guardian HERE

Britain to expel all Iranian diplomats

Foreign minister announces move after attack on UK's embassy in Tehran by a crowd of Iranian protesters

al-Jazeera, 30 November, 201

Britain has ordered the immediate closure of Iran's embassy in London and closed its own embassy in Tehran after it was stormed by protesters. 

"The Iranian charge [d'affaires] in London is being informed now that we require the immediate closure of the Iranian embassy in London and that all Iranian diplomatic staff must leave the United Kingdom within the next 48 hours," British Foreign Minister William Hague told parliament on Wednesday. 

"We have now closed the British embassy in Tehran. We have decided to evacuate all our staff and as of the last few minutes, the last of our UK-based staff have now left Iran." 

Hague also announced that Iranian ambassadors had been summoned in countries across Europe to receive strong protests over the storming of the embassy.

The move is a significant one, Al Jazeera's Andrew Simmons reported from London, that amounts to a "firm warning" to Tehran.

It marks "a complete split in diplomatic relations, not cut off completely but [downgraded to] the lowest level," Simmons said.

British response 'hasty'

Iran's foreign ministry, meanwhile, said shortly after Hague's announcement that the move to close the embassy was "hasty" and that Iran would be taking "further appropriate action", according to state television reports.  

Britain has voiced outrage over the ransacking of its diplomatic premises in Tehran on Tuesday by hardline students and Basij armed men in revenge for new British and Western sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme. 

"If any country makes it impossible for us to operate on their soil they cannot expect to have a functioning embassy here," Hague said.

Mindful of the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Tehran, when radical students held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, Britain waited till all its two dozen diplomatic staff and dependents had left the country to announce its move.

Conservative fringe 

Hague said it was "fanciful" to think the Iranian authorities could not have protected the embassy, or that the assault could have taken place without "some degree of regime consent". 

The diplomatic crisis is the worst dispute between Britain and Iran since full relations were restored in 1999, 10 years after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's fatwa to kill author Salman Rushdie for his book "The Satanic Verses". 

"It's rock bottom as far as Anglo-Iranian relations are concerned," said Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at St Andrews University in Scotland. "The Iranians have a mountain to climb. I don't think they fully understand how difficult it is for them now."

"What you are moving into is a period of containment and quarantine."

'Fraught' European response

Hague said European Union foreign ministers would discuss a possible co-ordinated response to the embassy attack at a meeting in Brussels later on Wednesday and on Thursday.

The EU ministers would discuss "further action which needs to be taken in the light of Iran's continued pursuit of a nuclear weapons programme," he said.

Germany and France on Wednesday also recalled their respective ambassadors to Iran for "consultations" over the storming of the British embassy.

Al Jazeera's Simmons reported that France was pushing for sanctions to be imposed on Iran’s oil exports, but that the initiative was meeting resistance from other European governments.

"The reason this is so contentious is that Iran is such a big OPEC producer and this could harm economies in Europe," he reported.

"This is going to be a fraught meeting in Brussels on Thursday."

Britain, however, will support the embargo, diplomatic sources told the Reuters news agency on Wednesday.

"Now that the UK has downgraded diplomatic relations with Iran, it will support increased sanctions ... and would likely go ahead with those sanctions unilaterally or with France and Germany," the diplomatic source said, referring to the ban on Iranian crude oil imports. 

Britain and other Western nations accuse Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons but Tehran insists its programme is purely for peaceful purposes.

Britain announced last week that it was halting all transactions with Iran's financial system, including its central bank.

Iranian officials this week retaliated by passing a law kicking out the British ambassador and downgrading diplomatic ties.

Iranians split

The attack also exposes widening rifts within Iran's ruling elite over how to deal with the increased international pressure as sanctions take their toll on the already stagnant economy. 

The protest appeared to be a move by the conservatives who dominate parliament to force President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to heed their demand to expel the British ambassador. Ahmadinejad and his ministers have shown no willingness to compromise on their refusal to halt Iran's nuclear work but have sought to keep talks open to limit what sanctions are imposed.

"This incident was planned by elements who are not opposed per se to negotiations but want to stop them merely because of their own petty political struggles," said Trita Parsi, a US-based expert on Western-Iranian relations. 

"The push to get the UK ambassador out came from parliament which is headed by Ali Larijani," Parsi said. "When Larijani was chief nuclear negotiator Ahmadinejad carried out a similar campaign against negotiations."

Yet more debt money

World central banks act to prevent fresh credit crunch

• Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England in co-ordinated move to provide emergency dollar loans to banks

• Fears eurozone crisis will trigger global double-dip recession

• Stock markets soar on news

the Guardian,

Wednesday 30 November 2011 13.47 GMT

Central banks from around the world have announced emergency measures to boost liquidity in the global economy and prevent the financial system from freezing up.

In a clear sign that policymakers fear the downturn in the eurozone risks spiralling into a fresh credit crunch – where banks stop lending to each other – they announced "co-ordinated central bank action to address pressures in global money markets".

The Bank of England joined the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank in taking the measures. Stock markets around the world surged after the central banks said they would cut the price of emergency dollar loans to cash-strapped banks by 0.5 

percentage points, and extend the scheme until February 2013.

They will also establish "temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements" between one central bank and another, allowing liquidity to be provided at short notice in any currency "should market conditions so warrant".

Analysts said the move would help to unjam the financial markets.

For article GO HERE

They came in riot gear and bio hazard suits

A sad and tragic day for #Occupy, the shell of the United States of America, and the whole world. It is disgusting to see the fear and propaganda used to fire up officers. Telling them that feces would be thrown at them, along with chunks of concrete. Funny, there are no chunks of concrete laying around City Hall. And there hasn't been a single incident of feces throwing anywhere in any #Occupy camp.

L.A. and Philly occupiers can hold their heads high. We did not sink to their levels. -- MCR

MIDNIGHT RAID: Hundreds Of Cops In Riot Gear And Hazmat Suits Storm Occupy LA

Business Insider,

30 November, 2011

LOS ANGELES (AP) — 

Police in Los Angeles and Philadelphia stormed Occupy Wall Street encampments in both cities Wednesday, demanding protestors leave demonstration sites that had become two of the movement's largest after evictions upended others across the country.

Dozens of officers in riot gear flooded down the steps of City Hall just after midnight and started dismantling the two-month-old camp two days after a deadline passed for campers to leave the lawn outside. The raid had a military precision and officers in helmets and wielding batons moved in and began making arrests after several orders were given to leave the small park.

The raid in Los Angeles came after demonstrators with the movement in Philadelphia marched through the streets after being evicted from their site.

The movement against economic disparity and perceived corporate greed began with Occupy Wall Street in Manhattan two months ago and has spread across the country and elsewhere.

Defiant Los Angeles campers who were chanting slogans as the officers surrounded the park, booed when an unlawful assembly was declared, paving the way for officers to begin arresting those who didn't leave.

In the first moments of the raid, officers tore down a tent and tackled a tattooed man with a camera on City Hall steps and wrestled him to the ground. Someone yelled "police brutality."

Teams of four or five officers moved through the crowd making arrests one at a time, cuffing the hands of protesters with white plastic zip-ties. A circle of protesters sat with arms locked, many looking calm and smiling.

Opamago Cascini, 29, said the night had been a blast and he was willing to get arrested.

"It's easy to talk the talk, but you gotta walk the walk," Cascini said.

In Philadelphia, police began pulling down tents at about 1:20 a.m. EST after giving demonstrators three warnings that they would have to leave, which nearly all of the protestors followed. Dozens of demonstrators then marched through the street until they were stopped by police.

Philadelphia Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey said breaking up the camp in the early-morning hours helped minimize any disruption to businesses and traffic.

Six protesters were arrested after remaining on a street police that police tried to clear. The eviction overall appeared to have been carried out without any significant scuffles or violence.

"This is a symbolic action, but in another sense this has been our home for almost two months and no one wants to see their home taken away from them," 22-year-old Philadelphia protestor Bri Barton said while acknowledging the movement would have to leave the site.

Demonstrators and city officials in both Los Angeles and Philadelphia were hoping any confrontation would be nonviolent, unlike evictions at similar camps around the country that sometimes involved pepper spray and tear gas.

About 1,200 Los Angeles officers staged for hours outside Dodger Stadium before the raid. They were warned that demonstrators might throw everything from concrete and gravel to human feces at them.

"Please put your face masks down and watch each other's back," a supervisor told them. "Now go to work."

Before police arrived in large numbers, protesters were upbeat and the mood was almost festive. A protester in a Santa Claus hat danced in the street. A woman showed off the reindeer antlers she had mounted on her gas mask.

Fireworks exploded in the sky at one point. Later, as helicopters hovered above, someone blew "The Star Spangled Banner" on a horn.

As officers first surrounded the camp, hundreds of protesters chanted, "The people united will never be defeated."

Campers planning to defend the camp and hold their ground barricaded entrances to the park with trash cans.

The police operation was planned at night because downtown is mostly vacant, with offices closed, fewer pedestrians and less traffic, but a spokesman said it could make officers more vulnerable.

"It's more difficult for us to see things, to see booby traps," Lt. Andy Neiman, told pool reporters. "Operating in the dark is never an advantage."

Neiman said the force was prepared to deal with demonstrators holed up in the camp or those who had climbed up trees in the small park.

Gia Trimble, member of the Occupy LA media team, said a lot of people committed to the cause would stay and risk arrest.

"This is a monumental night for Los Angeles," Trimble said. "We're going to do what we can to protect the camp."

In their anticipation of an eviction, the Los Angeles protesters designated medics designated with red crosses taped on clothing. Some protesters had gas masks.

Organizers at the camp packed up computer and technical equipment from the media tent.

Two men who constructed an elaborate tree house lashed bamboo sticks together with twine to push away any ladder police might use to evict them.

Police said they would be able to remove the tree climbers.

Members of the National Lawyers guild had legal observers on hand for an eviction.