Ukraine threatens Russia with "full-scale war"

Ukraine Warns Russia (and Europe) of "Full Scale War" When Gas Pipeline Contract Expires

Hal Turner,

27 April, 2018

Ukraine has threatened Russia with a full-scale conflict if there are cuts to Kiev’s Gazprom gas transits through the territory of Ukraine. “The likelihood of a full-scale conflict between Russian and Ukraine,” is increasing, and European nations should be aware of the geopolitical consequences for the whole world, said the commercial director at Ukraine’s main gas company.

Kiev has warned Moscow of “geopolitical consequences” if the gas ceases. “If there is no transit through the territory of Ukraine, then the likelihood of a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also increasing. European politicians need to understand not only the economic consequences for Ukraine but also geopolitical consequences for the whole world,” the commercial director at Ukraine’s main gas company Naftogaz Yuri Vitrenko told the 112 Ukraine TV channel.

According to RT, the gas-transit contract between Kiev and Moscow expires in 2019and Gazprom said on Tuesday that the contract will not be extended under any circumstances. The company added that the gas transit may remain, but only if Ukraine provides the necessary conditions for it. “Now the ball is on the Ukrainian side. It should justify the economic attractiveness and the possibility of transit through Ukraine,” said Gazprom Deputy Chairman of the Management Committee Aleksandr Medvedev.

Russia wants to significantly cut its gas transit through Ukraine and re-direct it through the extension of the existing Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. Moscow has alleged that Kiev has proved itself an unreliable partner in gas transits over the years. Moscow has repeatedly said Ukraine will lose its status as a key transit hub to Europe once the gas-transit contract expires. Russia wants to bypass Ukraine by doubling the capacity of the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea.

Some of the gas to Europe could also come through the Turkish Stream pipeline, currently under construction.  When the two pipelines mentioned are completed, transit through Ukraine is expected to fall by more than 80 percent, according to Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller. 

When that decrease takes place, Ukraine will LOSE 80% of the revenue it gets from taxing that gas; thus Bankrupting the Ukrainian government.

 He added that Gazprom does not intend to help neighboring countries restore their economies at its expense.

Kiev’s threats for a full-scale conflict with Russia do not appear to be affecting how Gazprom is altering the gas-transits

A dire warning from Siberia

Gas pipelines supplying Europe 'in real danger from exploding tundra' - top scientist

By The Siberian Times reporter

Siberian Times,

10 July 2017

Pipes are built over bulging and unstable Arctic pingos prone to violent eruptions caused by 'thawing methane gas', as seen twice on the Yamal peninsula this year.

Yerkutinskaya funnel. Picture: Aleksandr Sokolov 

New analysis by satellite and helicopter shows  gas pipelines run right over swelling tundra which is deeply unstable due to the release of underground methane that had been frozen in permafrost - now thawing - for thousands of years, revealed Russia's leading expert on the new phenomenon, Professor Vasily Bogoyavlensky.

In one recent explosion, permafrost soil was thrown around 1 kilometre from the epicentre of the blast, highlighting the huge force, scientists discovered.

Flames shot into the sky, and a 50 metre-deep crater was formed from the eruption. 

The process is seen as caused by the warming Arctic climate and has vast implications for the energy industry in polar regions.

Seyakhinskaya funnel. Picture: Yamal Region  

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Gas from Yamal is crucial to both Russia and the European energy system, with exports in particular to Poland and Germany. 

Some 7,000 pingos - scientific name hydrolaccoliths - have been identified in Yamal, and one estimate is that some 700 of these mounds could be prone to eruptions.

Most are harmless but the difficulty for experts is identifying which are dangerous.

'In a number of areas pingos - we see  both from satellite data with own eyes during helicopter inspections - they literally prop up gas pipes,' said the professor. 

'I would even use another term - in some places they jack up gas pipes. 

'Do you understand? They seem to begin to slightly bend these pipes.'

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Yerkutinskaya and Seyakhinskaya funnels. Pictures: Aleksandr Sokolov, Yamal region  

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Experts say villages and towns are also under threat, but the risk of explosions under gas supply pipelines is clearly acute. 

Alexander Mazharov, deputy head of the governor of Yamalo-Nenets autonomous region, said: 'It is cleat that it was not a meteorite, but gas emission.'

The explosion was in an Arctic river, and it was immediately submerged with water.  

'We did a good job as we took samples of water, soil and air. Now it is time for laboratories to give us results of analyses,' he said. 

Professor Vasily Bogoyavlensky. Picture: Vesti Yamal 

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Another crater - or funnel - that was found same week is called Yerkutinskaya. This is up to 10 metres in diameter and visible depth is 30 metres. 

'Based on satellite data, we have marked 7,000 bulges (pingos) - or even more,' said Bogoyavlensky, deputy director of the Oil and Gas Research Institute, Moscow.

'It doesn't mean that every pingo carries danger but it is still clear that we can draw certain conclusions. 

'Locals calls these bulges 'bugunyakhs'. In the West they are called pingos.'

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Scientists now believe that Yamal's landscape - pockmarked by round-shaped lakes - was substantially caused by this process over hundreds of years. 

This means it was not solely the recent 'global warming' that was responsible but more subtle rhythms of melting every decade with the Arctic Ocean ice cover melting by some 14%.

But it is only in the past three years that the formation of the new craters has been witnessed. 

In the case of the most recent explosion - now named Seyakhinskaya - it was witnessed by herders, and reindeer and dogs were seen fleeing in terror - see our previous report here.

Ice inside hydrolaccoliths thaws under the influence of high air temperature, say scientists.  Water takes less volume, while the vacant space is filled with a gas mixture, substantially methane. 

When the gas pressure inside the dome begins to exceed the pressure of the soil layer on the surface, gas gets out. 

Usually this happens as an emission, but in some cases, there is a fierce explosion. 

Trembling tundra of the Yamal Peninsula. Video credit Aleksandr Sokolov

Dr Bogoyavlensky believes the explosions are similar to the under-ocean eruptions of methane that caused the so-called Bermuda Triangle. 

The Yamal peninsula is now one of the world's key sites for production of natural gas for residential and industrial supplies, notably to Western Europe, for example by Gazprom.

Currently, there are three seismic stations on the Yamal peninsula, in Sabetta, Bovanenkovo and Kharasavey. 

Scientists believe at least six  permanent stations are required, with three more located in Urengoy, Bely island and Salekhard. 

The issue of Yamal tundra explosions is to addressed at the next meeting of the Russian government's state commission on exploration of the Arctic. 

Map of the newest Yamal funnels, and pictures of the funnel known as F1, registered in 2014. Pictures: The Siberian Times, Vasily Bogoyavlensky 

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Don'tever forget Syria is about reяources

The Natural Gas War Burning Under Syria

Submitted by James Durso via OilPrice.com,

Zero Hedge,

24 September, 2016

Qatar always wanted to punch above its weight. In Syria, it got the chance.

In 2009, Qatar, a leading natural gas producer, approached Syria about routing its planned 1,500 mile pipeline to the gas markets of Europe through Syria’s Aleppo province. Qatar wanted a pipeline straight to Europe as its current gas transport modes were limited to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tanker, mostly to Asia with limited spot shipments to Europe or the Dolphin pipeline to the United Arab Emirates and Oman. The pipeline would head north and end in Turkey after crossing Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria. Syriadeclined Qatar’s offer, which would have cut the European market share of its partner, Russia, and instead agreed to participate in the “Friendship Pipeline” between Iran and Iraq that was considered a “Shia Pipeline” to some and a target for the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf. Not understood, or ignored, was Syria’s longstanding support of the Iranian regime, especially during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, and its long relationship with Russia, dating from 1944, which should have been a warning of who might appear if things hotted up.

In 2010, Israel and Syria held back-channel talks that reportedly included Israel’s return of the Golan Heights to Syria in exchange for security guarantees. The talks lagged due to mutual suspicions about the other side’s ability to deliver and, by early 2011, the Arab Spring had erupted across the region and leaders’ attentions turned to more immediate concerns. At this point, America had the opportunity to strike a blow against the Islamic Republic’s ally, the Assad regime. In 2011, Turkey provided a home for the opposition Syrian National Council and, in August 2011, the U.S., its allies, and the UN were calling on Bashar Assad to step down.

In 2011, Syria, Iran, and Iraq agreed to build a pipeline to connect Iran’s South Pars gas field to Europe. The pipeline would run from Assalouyeh, Iran to Europe via Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, with Syria as the center of assembly and production.

What remains unclear is why, when Syria turned down its original pipeline proposal, it didn’t pursue its second option for the pipeline route: Saudi Arabia – Kuwait – Iraq. Aside from the challenging terrain in Iraq, the mostly likely reasons are the discovery of vast gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, and Saudi opposition to a pipeline through Kuwait. If a more Qatar-friendly regime were to gain control of Syria, Qatar would be able to garner more profit and have influence over the state, something it is unable to do with Saudi Arabia, which vehemently opposes Qatar’s historic support of the Muslim Brotherhood, Jordan, a U.S. ally, or Iraq, an Iranian ally. At that point it was nothing personal, just business, and the Assads had to go.

This was Qatar’s best chance to influence the affairs of the region. It has a tiny native population – guest workers make up almost 90 percent of Qatar’s population of 2.2 million – and an unhealthy one, so some options are limited as it has a very small military. It does, however, have a healthy check book and was able to use it to help finance the Syrian opposition forces.

To better understand the war in Syria, remember the surge in natural gasdiscoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean starting in 2009. Israel, Cyprus, and Egypt have found large gas deposits, and offshore Lebanon has the potential for significant gas resources. Israel has the potential to export gas to Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and Turkey. (Israel and Turkey have discussed a pipeline to Turkey, but Cyprus has objected as it does not have diplomatic relations with Turkey.)

If the pipeline from Iran to Syria it could create an energy hub in Syria, and could block Qatar gas sales to Europe at a time when Qatar’s gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to zero, largely due to increasing U.S. domesticproduction of natural gas. Thus Qatar would be limited to the Asian LNG market as it scrapped for the EU market with Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Russia. And the only thing that could make it worse is happening: Europe is forecast to take more than half of U.S. LNG exports by 2020.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and their confederates are in it to win it, and the fighting in Syria has focused on the pipeline routes. Aleppo province, which would host the Qatari pipeline, is where Turkey wants to establish abuffer zone to support “moderate” rebel forces. If Turkey can control this territory, it will bolster the Qatari pipeline and ensure its own preeminence as the energy hub in southern Europe, where it would gather oil and natural gas from Russia, Central Asia, the Caspian, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East, and become less reliant on Russian gas, which accounted for over 50 percent of its imports in 2014. But Russia hasn’t been standing still: it has surrounded Turkey on three sides by occupying Crimea, sending more troops to Armenia, and deploying the S-400 air defense system to Syria, creating a no-fly zone, and maybe a “no-buy” zone for potential customers of Qatari gas.

The Pasha’s increasingly autocratic behavior may spur hedging behavior in Europe, such as balancing the Pasha with the Tsar and completing Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline, negotiating better deals with key suppliers Norway and Algeria, importing LNG from the U.S., and getting serious about fracking for shale gas. Turkey turned the flow of refugees to Europe on and off to get what it wanted, and the possibility remains that it will one day do the same with energy.

And Qatar may have to write some more checks in addition to the ones it has sent to Assad’s opposition. Turkey has some serious policy and infrastructure shortfalls that work against it becoming a serious energy hub soon: weak domestic gas regulation, state subsidies, monopoly control of the gas transmission network, only two LNG terminals, and a lack of storage capacity. 

Syria may be too wrecked to be a hub and Turkey lacks the infrastructure for the role. Russia may be interested in investing in increasing Turkey’s hub capacity and Turkey, which is making amends with Russia, may take the money over Qatar’s for a pipeline that may never be built. Russia’s good relations with Cyprus and Israel could propel movement towards a resolution of the Cyprus dispute so the gas pipeline from Israel to Turkey becomes a reality, having the knock-on effect of attracting more outside investment to Turkey.

To succeed in its pipeline goals, Qatar will have to make serious investments in the Turkish end of its project as well as resisting political pressure from Russia. Until then, it will be limited to making LNG shipments to Europe by tanker. In the meantime, these pipeline geopolitics have contributed to serious consequences for the Middle East.

Greece tragedy - commentary - 07/12/2015

GREECE TO BE CUT OFF FROM BRICS FUNDING

I have not seen this confirmed anywhere but it is probably true. If it is true will Tsipras - who is currently capitulating to every demand made of him - still have any one left defending him?

As for the current European Council discussion, they are no longer a negotiation between Greece and its creditors. They are a quarrel between Germany and France. Greece is a bystander.

It goes without saying that the gas pipeline project with Russia is finished.

---Alexander Mercouris

Quarantine Greece? EU is placing terms into new loan proposal that will cut Greece off from BRICS financing

Troika creditors are embedding terms into the new loan proposal that will prohibit Greece from seeking any financial assistance from third parties…i.e. Russia and the BRICS.

By Alexrpt

Red Pill Times,

12 July, 2015

Its not enough that the Eurogroup will make sure Greece carries out harsh austerity and cuts in just about every part of its economy, while raising taxes just about everywhere and for everyone…but any chance of Greece looking for additional financing and investment from the powerhouse BRICS nations will also be strictly prohibited under the new deal being hashed out in Brussels.

Now that Merkel and Schäuble have Greece right where they want it, it’s time to permanently break any hopes and dreams Greece had of growth and opportunity that can be found in the Eurasian new silk road.

Germany wants to squash any possible pivot, or though of a pivot, that Greece may have hoped and dreamt of with Russia and China.

Forget Greek Stream, forget the AIIB and the BRCIS development bank. Forget the SCO…Greece will be prohibited to play with Russia and China. If, and after, the new debt deal is signed with the Troika, consider Greece under quarantine.

Greek site, Defencenet.gr reports…

Creditors are not only making sure to enforce “harsh” austerity, which will make the previous debt deals look like kid’s play, but embedded within the terms of the new loan agreement, creditors will prohibit Greece from seeking any financial assistance from third parties…i.e. Russia and the BRICS.

Keep in mind that the 70 billion euro package [now closer to 100 billion euros] which Europe is putting together is not real economic help for Greece…as nearly all of the money loaned will immediately be used to pay off debt, with not one cent being used to help the Greek economy grow.

This leaves the natural gas pipeline [Turk Stream to Greek Stream] as the only visible source of investment into the Greek economy…and that too is under the condition that the EU approves the plan (it won’t).

References:

http://www.defencenet.gr/

Too late?

Russia Plans to Support Greece With Direct Energy Deliveries

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that an agreement may be worked out in the next few weeks.

Russia is looking into the possibility of delivering energy to Greece directly in order to renew the crisis-hit country’s economy, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Sunday.

“The Russian Federation plans to support the renewal of the Greek economy by expanding its cooperation in the energy sector. We are studying the possibility of organizing direct deliveries of energy to the Greek government to begin in the near future,” Novak told journalists in Moscow.

The minister said that an agreement may be worked out in the next few weeks.

Why Russia's Gas Pipeline Deal With Greece Is Likely to Be Stillborn - Alexander Mercouris

A Greek government that remains committed to the EU is not united behind a deal with Gazprom that is far more modest than the one offered in March and April

Those who are willing to sell their country off

Via electronic translation

TO DELIVER THE GOVERNANCE OF THE COUNTRY, IN BRUSSELS FOR 5 YEARS PROPOSED BY GEORGE PAPANDREOU

ΝΑ ΠΑΡΑΔΏΣΟΥΜΕ ΤΗΝ ΔΙΑΚΥΒΈΡΝΗΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΧΏΡΑΣ ΣΤΙΣ ΒΡΥΞΈΛΛΕΣ ΓΙΑ 5 ΧΡΌΝΙΑ ΠΡΟΤΕΊΝΕΙ Ο ΓΙΏΡΓΟΣ ΠΑΠΑΝΔΡΈΟΥ

By Alexrpt

Real Bomb.gr,

12 July, 2015

The Movement to Change George Papandreou proposes an adjustment period of 5 years, during which time the governance and administration of the Hellenic Republic will be carried out centrally from Brussels, in the European Commission and the european Parliament, in order to make the necessary reforms and αναδιοργάνωσει of the state and handed over to us in a few years a modern, european state.

According to the announcement "Will be made so Greece is a federated region of the European Union, the standards of countries such as the USA (Washington D.C.), Australia (Canberra) and many other successful examples around the world. Our opinions were filed in the current congress of the Party of European Socialists and received a warm welcome from the leaders and particularly by mr Martin Schulz. Stand by for further developments."

Schultz: we're Not too strict with the Greeks

"There are some tough and some of the most cooperative countries in the subject of Greece. Some countries understand the situation in Greece. The only sure thing is that most of the eurozone countries want to remain in the euro for Greece, but the problem is that the options of the program. I can't say that we are too strict with the Greeks. Tonight, I need to find a formula", - stressed the head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, to a question from a journalist on the attitudes of Europeans towards Greece.

From Pepe Escobar

THE EU LAUNCHES "EXTENSIVE MENTAL WATERBOARDING"

It's a go - and invented by Merkel and Hollande. Revealed by an unidentified Euro-bureaucrat a few minutes ago in Brussels. Applied by Merkel and Hollande on Tsipras.

Dick Cheney will be receiving royalties.

The Man Who Refused to Play by the Rules: the Real Sins of Varoufakis

Chris Bickerton

Counterpunch,

10 July, 2015

Why have negotiations between Greece and creditors collapsed, to a point of virtual no return, when both sides have repeatedly said they want the same thing: for Greece to stay in the euro?

The conventional wisdom is that the policy gap between the two sides was simply too great. Elected in January, the Syriza-led government sought to reverse years of austerity under the slogan of no more bailouts. Its flamboyant finance minister, Yannis Varoufakis (who has since stood down), spoke of an economic transformation in Greece, taking on the long-standing power of the country’s oligarchs. His renegotiation with the Troika was part of this broader agenda.

Facing Greece was a German-led bloc committed to more austerity and structural reforms. Within this bloc were countries — Ireland, Portugal — that had turned to the EU for their own bailouts and had undertaken the cuts and reforms asked of them. They were implacable in their belief that Greece should do the same.

But this view cannot explain why both sides came as close as they did. The often-forgotten truth of the last few weeks is that Greece and the Troika very nearly secured a deal. From the outset, the policy differences between them have been minor, largely because of Syriza’s moderate demands.

In early 2015, there was a lot of sympathy — including from the IMF — for Greek debt relief. When Varoufakis argued that a crisis of insolvency should not be confused with a liquidity crisis, he was listened to. Even in the very final stages of the negotiations, the remaining differences were small in what was multi-billion euro loan agreement. In the recent referendum, heavyweight economic commentators like Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman argued for a ‘no’, saying the intellectual case for a revised bailout agreement and debt relief was solid.

The negotiations didn’t break down because of an unbridgeable gap between the North and South; creditors and debtors; the German ‘Ordoliberalism’ of Schäuble and Djisselbloem and Greek-style Marxism of Varoufakis and Tsipras. This gap has never existed. They broke down because Varoufakis repeatedly breached the Eurogroup’s etiquette. In doing so, he challenged the very foundations of the eurozone’s mode of governance.

The Eurogroup is not a democratic institution. Though it is made up of finance ministers from democratically elected governments, these ministers meet as individuals who are there on the assumption that they will build consensus, make compromises, and reach agreements amongst themselves.

The etiquette of the Eurogroup is that one leaves one’s national interests at the door. Relations are more personal than political. Ideologies and grand statements of political doctrine have no place in the body’s deliberations. If a minister is constrained because of a difficult situation at home, this is treated as an understandable — if unfortunate — problem that needs to be solved. Ministers find in the Eurogroup a source of energy and support for taking on their own domestic populations. It is also a private club of sorts, where what goes on inside remains secret. Ministers attending the Eurogroup are transformed from politicians representing interests into experts seeking solutions to common problems.

The hostility towards Varoufakis stems from his breaking of all of these rules. He refused to play the Eurogroup game. It’s not really about riding a motorbike, wearing combat trousers and being a celebrity academic-blogger — though his charisma and popularity probably created jealousies amongst the other (colourless and tie-wearing) politicians.

At the heart of the matter is how Varoufakis presented his demands. Thinking of himself as a representative of the Greek people, he made his wishes public, and when in the Eurogroup, he maintained the same stance — changes in views could not be informally agreed around a table but had to be taken back to Athens and argued for, in cabinet and with the Syriza party.

It was this breach of etiquette that made agreement impossible. Creative solutions can usually be found in the EU. It is, after all, a machine built on compromise. But when someone violates the very rules of the game, nothing can be done. Varoufakis exposed the Eurogroup as a private club where relations between individuals matter more than relations between the populations that are formerly being represented around the table. For that, he — and Greece — must now be punished.

This article appears in the excellent Le Monde Diplomatique, whose English language edition can be found at mondediplo.com. This full text appears by agreement with Le Monde Diplomatique. CounterPunch features two or three articles from LMD every month.

Chris Bickerton is a lecturer in politics at the University of Cambridge. He blogs at The Current Moment.