Showing posts with label commodity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commodity. Show all posts

Wednesday, 19 November 2014

Commodity prices

On the news they say this is because there is lots of milk on the market. As if supply and demand was in operation! As if commodity prices aren't collapsing across the board! 

Anything to stop people joining the dots

Prices have dropped by about 50 per cent since February.  There goes John Key's "rockstar economy" just a month or so after the election!

Dairy price index falls 3.1 percent
A further drop in Fonterra's forecast milk payout looks inevitable after milk powder prices fell again in the overnight global dairy trade.




19 November, 2014


The average price for dairy commodities traded in the auction fell by 3.1 percent to two $2,561, its lowest point since July 2009.

That followed a drop of 0.3 percent two weeks ago.

The key product, whole milk powder, fell by 5.1 percent and skim milk powder by 5.7 percent.

Rennet Casein prices took the biggest hit, dropping by more than 12 percent .
However, butter cheese and anhydrous milk fat prices lifted by five to six percent.
Fonterra was due to review its farmgate milk price next month.

It was sitting at $5.30 per kg of milk solids, which most commentators said was unsustainable with current global prices.

Agricultural analyst AgriHQ, which runs its own dairy price index, had lowered its farmgate milk price to $4.55 as a result of the overnight auction.

Agrifax dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said the price drop was being driven by a lot of milk being on the market.

"For our dairy farmers sake that we really, really do hope that we have reached a trough.

"Where prices are today, and where the outlook is and based on current exchange rates we see a milk price around $4.55, which is well-bellow where Fonterra currently have theirs at $5.30."

Federated Farmers Dairy Industry Group Chair Andrew Hoggard feared the latest news might linger on.

"It does put a lot of pressure on payouts, the hope was that we'd start seeing lifts through and that if the price had got to a certain point by February-March, then Fonterra could be more certain about the $5.30 payouts, that now puts that at risk."

Prime Minister John Key reassured farmers dairy prices would soon bottom out and bounce back after what he said had been a fairly savage reduction.

"My view is it's going to bottom out pretty soon and start going back the other way, I don't think it's based on hope it's fundamentally based on what is a massive consumer demand."

Mr Key said much of the demand was coming from China.

He said an unusual combination of factors had led to the drop in prices, including fantastic growing conditions around the world and a build up of inventories in China



Friday, 14 November 2014

Towards Collapse: Oil prices down to $74 a barrel

Oil down to $74 a barrel. If this continues, or prices stay this low it will destroy the world economy. 

Even Vladimir Putin said so much that a few week ago


Oilpocalypse Now Sends Small Caps To Worst Day In 3 Weeks


13 November, 2014

WTI Crude plunged another 3.75% to as low as $74.06 today - the lowest since Sept 2010 and dropping at the fastest rate of collapse since Lehman. 

Airlines popped and Energy stocks dropped 2.7% (now worst sector of the year) but Small Caps were the worst performing major index of the day (turning first around 1030ET and dropping most in over 3 weeks). The S&P tested back into the red for the week but was VWAP-rescued twice. AAPL once again bid saved the Nasdaq. Treasury yields slid lower all day (down 2-3bps across the complex) but remain up 4-5bps on the week. The USD weakened very marginally (still up 0.25% on the week) led by EUR strength. Gold and silver were flat but copper tumbled back below $300 - its lowest close in a month (near lowest close since Jul 2010). HY Credit diverged bearishly this afternoon as stocks ramped to VWAP. VIX rose for the 3rd day in a row, back over 14. Dow record close, Russell biggest drop in 3 week.

It was a weak day in stocks... so what do u think happened to trading volume... But of course, it wouldn't be the US equity market without a late-day panic buying algo surge to VWAP??!!

*  *  *
But today was all about Oil...

WTI at over 4 year lows and falling at the fastest pace since Lehman...


And Lowest seasonal gas price since 2010...

The Energy sector is easily the worst performing sector of the year (and note EVERYTHING else ignoring the dip)


Don't forget - the collapse in oil prices is due to over-supply and NOT (repeat not) due to a collapse in global demand (which of course are merely 2 sides of the same coin)

*  *  *
On the day, Small Caps underperformed...


And the S&P tested red for the week intrday... and bounced...

VIX has decoupled for 3 days and it appears stocks are catching down...


Treasuries rallied today but yields remain 4-5bps higher on the week...

HY credit decoupled from stocks yesterday and remained there...


FX markets were relatively quiet today with EUR strength the main driver (as it seems EURUSD and TSYs are flip-flopping each day)


Gold and Silver were relatively quiet today as Copper and Oil got plugged

...

Close up, oil down from over $78 to just above $74...

and Copper smashed from over $3.05 to $2.98

...

Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: It appears Airlines decided that once Bullard had spoken low oil prices can only mean good things for the global economic wealth of travelers... +45% in 3 weeks?

Bonus Bonus Chart: Just when you thought TWTR was fixed with Noto's dreams yesterday.. all the gains are eviscerated today...


Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: Today marked the 20th day in a row that the S&P has closed above its 5-day moving average. MKM's Jonathan Krinsky notes this length of streak has only happened 3 other times in the past 20 years.. and each time the 5DMA was broken, it was followed by a sell off (2/14/96 -2.3% in 2 weeks, 7/2198 -14.66% in 6 weeks, 12/3/96 -2.97% in 2 week)




Tuesday, 11 September 2012

Warnings from George Soros and Jim Rogers


Soros: Germany’s heading into depression
Europe’s recession will intensify and spread to Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy, within six months, said George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management.



10 September, 2012

The policy of fiscal retrenchment in the midst of rising unemployment is pro-cyclical and pushing Europe into a deeper and longer depression,” Soros said in prepared remarks for a Monday speech in Berlin. “That is no longer a forecast; it is an observation. The German public doesn’t yet feel it and doesn’t quite believe it. But it is all too real in the periphery and it will reach Germany in the next six months or so.”

As French President François Hollande unveils a raft of austerity measures, including a controversial tax on the rich, fears of an exodus of the country's rich are fanned as LVMH chief Bernard Arnault says he’s seeking Belgian citizenship.

Emblematic of that, Germany’s unemployment rate was just 5.5% in July, compared with 23% or higher in Greece and Spain, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency.

Germany needs to abandon its demands for austerity in other countries and embrace the continued fiscal unification of the region or leave the euro zone itself, Soros said.

Soros also said it would be preferable for Germany to stay in the euro zone and work to boost growth, activate a debt-reduction fund and guarantee common bonds.

It would be by far the best for all concerned if Germany stayed in the euro. If not, it would be best if Germany and other like-mined creditor countries withdrew from the euro in a negotiated separation,” Soros said, according to his prepared remarks. See related blog post on Soros’s late-June rebuke of Germany’s debt-crisis approach and related story on Soros’s contention that Europe had three months, as of June, to address the crisis .

Soros’s latest comments come two days before a much-anticipated German Constitutional Court ruling on the legitimacy of the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone’s permanent bailout fund.


Euro Zone Will Pay ‘Terrible Price’: Jim Rogers
A “terrible price” will be paid for the euro zone crisis eventually, whether the European Central Bank (ECB) embarks on mass bond purchases or not, Jim Rogers, investor and co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, told CNBC Monday.



10 September, 2012

Rogers said: “These guys have been saying the same old garbage for a long time. It’s not a game-changer – it’s good for the market for maybe a month. The debt keeps going higher and higher and eventually we’ll all going to pay a terrible price.”

He warned that the market rally, which many have seen as an opportunity to get back into riskier assets, would only be a short-term rebound.

It’s not an opportunity to make money for me. This is not good for the market and it’s not going to last. Every three or four months they (euro [EUR=X 1.2768 0.0011 (+0.09%) ] zone politicians) have a summit and they say: Ok guys, everything is ok now. The market goes up. But we’re getting a little tired of this and the market is getting a little tired of this,” Rogers argued.

There should be some opportunity to make money in the short term, Peter Toogood, director of investment, Old Broad Street Research, said.

There is a little window for risk trade – not a sustainable one, but there’s some stability to the short-term outlook,” he argued. He pointed out that ECB President Mario Draghi “has already been expanding the balance sheet through disguises.”

Some point out that the ECB will hold off on the bond-buying program – known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) – which will raise its balance sheet, until there are much firmer conditions imposed. This makes it less like classic inflationary money printing.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist, High Frequency Economics, said that he doesn’t think the ECB will print money in Europe any time soon.

We’re going to have the same old, same old all over again. It’s just another twist on the same old story, but right now they’re not doing anything,” he said.

Draghi couldn’t get past the Germans for an inch if he didn’t agree to sterilize the proceeds.”

Opinion is also divided on how the potential to buy (rephrase?) huge tranches of the bonds of shakier economies, to try and keep their borrowing costs at sustainable levels, will affect the commodities markets.

Weinberg pointed out that the OMT plans are probably on too small a scale to affect the commodity markets long term. While they have been described as “unlimited”, countries which apply for the assistance have to meet certain conditions for their budget and fiscal reform.

Rogers, famed as a long-term commodities bull, said there was no reason to correct this stance.

The bull market in commodities will end some day – but some day is a long way away,” he said.

Commodities have been correcting for a while. Now everybody knows they’re throwing money into the market, and history tells you that when they do this the way to protect yourself is to own real assets whether it’s silver or rice. If the world economy gets better, I own commodities because there’s shortages developing. If it doesn’t they’re (central banks) all going to print money. It’s the wrong thing to do, but it’s all they know to do.”

Thursday, 6 September 2012

NZ economy "is collapsing"


Today was the first time that anyone on public media has used the C-word

A collapsing economy, falling commodity prices, local government debt and a government that is determined to sell off strategic assets while still amassing huge levels of debt: these stories epitomise the true position of New Zealand today.

NZ: "The economy is collapsing and (Finance Minister) Bill English in July this year promised 20,000 - 30,000 new jobs a year."
Government breaks jobs pledge, says CTU


6 September, 2012

The president of the Council of Trade Unions says the Government has broken a pledge to create more jobs.

New Zealand Aluminium Smelters on Wednesday announced that a total of 100 jobs at its plant near Bluff in Southland are likely to be cut by November, rather than over five years as it had previously planned.

Last month state-owned Solid Energy made staffing cuts in Huntly and suspended operations at its Spring Creek mine on the West Coast.

And job losses are likely at Norske Skog which plans to halve production at its Kawerau newsprint mill.

Council of Trade Unions president Helen Kelly told Radio New Zealand's Morning Report programme says the Government could do more to cushion the economy from the global financial crisis.

"The Government is a major player because it buys things, because it employs people, because it owns things. It should have a plan using all of those things to generate a jobs-led growth strategy.

"The economy is collapsing and (Finance Minister) Bill English in July this year promised 20,000 - 30,000 new jobs a year."

Labour accuses Govt of forgetting need for jobs

The Labour Party says the Government is so consumed by its plan to sell off state-owned assets that it's forgetting about the need to create jobs in the economy.

Labour leader David Shearer says unless New Zealand Aluminium Smelters gets itself into the black the Tiwai plant may have to close, which would be tragic for Southland.

Falling aluminium prices worldwide and high energy costs forced New Zealand Aluminium Smelters to reduce output by 15% earlier this year. In the last financial year, the Tiwai smelter lost $20 million.

Mr Shearer says financial difficulties at the smelter also put a dent in the Government's plan to sell shares in state-owned power company Meridian.

The smelter is Meridian's biggest customer, and if Tiwai Point succeeds in its attempt to negotiate a lower electricity price, Mr Shearer says, the power company's revenue - and eventual share price - will fall.

Green Party co-leader Russel Norman says New Zealand Aluminium Smelters' parent company Rio Tinto could be using the announcement on fast-tracking staff redundancies as a way of negotiating a cheaper electricity deal.

Tiwai plant secure, says PM

Prime Minister John Key is confident the smelter will not close. He says the job losses at Tiwai Point reflect current trading conditions and lower international aluminium prices.

"There are a number of ways in which the company might be be able to accommodate the changes. Some of those are changes to its overall cost structure itself, and that's partly what the company is doing here."

Mr Key says the company's electricity negotiations with Meridian are sewn up for the next three years.


Water hui organisers untroubled at Crown's absence

6 September, 2012



The spokesperson for the Maori King says the Prime Minister was never going to be invited to a national hui on water rights.

The Maori King, Tuheitia, will host the meeting at Turangawaewae marae in Ngaruawahia on 13 September for Maori to discuss water rights following a Waitangi Tribunal report on the matter.

Prime Minister John Key said on Wednesday the Crown won't be represented at the hui and no National Maori MPs will be allowed to go.

The King's spokesperson and National Summit chairman Tukoroirangi Morgan says the Prime Minister's attendance was never even considered when the idea of the national hui was being mooted.

He told Radio New Zealand's Morning Report programme it was immaterial and inconsequential that Crown representatives won't be there....


Commodity producers suffer as prices fall


6 September, 2012

Companies and workers in the raw commodity sector are pessimistic about the future as a cooling global economy forces job cuts and streamlines production.
In the latest job losses, New Zealand Aluminium Smelters, owned by Rio Tinto, announced cuts at its plant near Bluff in Southland on Wednesday, saying they would take effect by November this year.

The cuts were to have occurred over five years through natural attrition, but are now being fast-tracked. Thirty-five jobs have been lost since August last year and a further 65 are expected to go.

The price of aluminium is the lowest it has been since the depths of the global financial crisis, contributing to a $20 million loss at the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter at Bluff, despite its reputation as one of the most efficient in the world.
These difficulties are not confined to the aluminium industry, as the price of copper steel nickel and coal all slide.

Last month state-owned miner Solid Energy announced job cuts and suspended operations at it Spring Creek mine. Chief executive Don Elder said coal prices had taken "a massive dive off a cliff" in early July "that virtually nobody was expecting".

Norske Skogalsoplans to halve production at its newsprint mill in Kawerau. Whakatane mayor Tony Bonne is involved in projects to promote the Eastern Bay of Plenty which he hopes will counter the setback.....


Council debt 'hidden' by internal borrowing

6 September, 2012

Local government analyst Larry Mitchell says many councils are hiding the true extent of their debt by internal borrowing.

Mr Mitchell publishes league tables rating the financial performance of councils.
He says councils used to have sinking funds they could not touch which were to be used to to replace infrastructure.

But he says they can now raid those reserves to finance other needs and have done so with a vengeance.

Mr Mitchell says council balance sheets around the country show debt ceilings have been reached and there is no capacity to borrow.

He says the Audit Office should be insisting councils show their internal borrowings in their annual reports and plans.