Hurricane Irma update - 09/07/2017

I am working under the most difficult situation with the internet so will brng only the important headlines for now

Not Just Florida: Georgia And South Carolina Face "Catastrophic Storm Surge"

Zero Hedge,

7 September, 2017

As Hurricane Irma looks to be hurdling straight for a direct hit on Southern Florida, meteorologists from Weather Underground are warning that the most devastating impacts of the storm could be felt much further north in towns along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where the storm surge could be a catastrophic 20-28 feet high in certain areas. To put that in perspective, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 set a record for the largest storm surge ever recorded along the U.S. coast at 27.8 feet.

If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.

So, which coastal towns are most at risk? As Weather Underground notes, Savannah in Southern Georgia could see a surge of up to 23 feet if Irma strikes as a Category 3 storm. Obviously, the surge would be even larger if Irma manages to maintain Cat-4 winds.

Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) storm tide image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 3.5’) along the coast of Georgia. What’s plotted here is the storm tide--the height above ground of the storm surge, plus an additional rise in case the storm hits at high tide. Empty brownish grid cells with no coloration show where no inundation is computed to occur. Inundation of 19 – 23’ will occur in a worst-case scenario along most of the coast.

Meanwhile, further north in Charleston, SC the surge could also exceed 20 feet and flood areas many miles inland from the shore.

Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) water depth image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 2.5’) along the coast of South Carolina near Charleston. If Irma is a Cat 3 in South Carolina, a worst-case 17 – 21’ storm tide can occur.

Of course, as we noted earlier, this data has already prompted the governors of Georgia and South Carolina to declare a state of emergency and to call for citizens of coastal areas to begin evacuations immediately.

I’ve expanded the state of emergency to 24 additional counties & ordered mandatory evac for some. Read more —> http://bit.ly/2eJfVAo 

4:25 AM - 8 Sep 2017

NEW: South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster asks citizens to prepare for Hurricane Irma; declares state of emergency http://cbsn.ws/2w7LdHz 

Ironically, even though Irma will be her strongest when washing ashore in Southern Florida, Weather Underground notes that deep water just offshore helps to subdue the storm surge from Miami to Fort Lauderdale...

South Florida is not at as great of a risk of a high storm surge, since there is deep water offshore, and the mound of water the hurricane piles up can flow downward into the deep ocean instead of getting piled up on land. The worst-case storm tide from a Category 4 hurricane for the coast from Miami Beach to West Palm Beach is 7 – 9 feet. However, that deep water allows much larger waves to build up, and Irma will create big waves that will pound the coast and cause heavy damage. There is a region of the coast from downtown Miami southwards, including Biscayne Bay, where the water is shallow, and the storm tide can be up to 15 feet in a Category 4 hurricane. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 storm, brought a 10 – 15’ storm surge to the coast of Miami along Biscayne Bay.

...which also should help to somewhat protect the coast on the western shores of Florida.

The Atlantic (Florida Straits) side of the Florida Keys also has deep water offshore, limiting the maximum storm surge in a Cat 4 to 8 – 10 feet. The risk is higher on the west (Florida Bay) side of the Keys, where the water is shallower; a worst-case storm tide of 12 – 15 feet can occur there. Any storm tide over six feet is extremely dangerous in the Florida Keys, due to the low elevation of the land. The greatest risk in the Keys, if the current NHC forecast verifies, would be on the Florida Bay (west) side of the Upper Keys, after the center of Irma moves just to the north. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the hurricane will then bring winds out of the southwest that will drive a large storm surge into the west side of the Upper Keys.

Be that as it may, with winds in excess of 120 mph expected pretty much across the entire state of Florida, one might be best suited to prepare for the worst no matter how close you are to the shore. record for the largest storm surge ever recorded along the U.S. coast at 27.8 feet.

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue

European model wind gust swathe covers Florida peninsula in hurricane force wind gusts ... #Irma continues up I-75 thru Georgia.

Miami is in the 'worst possible 

position': Eye of the storm has 

shifted as Irma barrels towards the 

US mainland - with mandatory 

evacuations issued for Florida 

AND Georgia

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4863996/Florida-Georgia-brace-arrival-Hurricane-Irma.html

• Meteorologists are now predicting that Miami will bear the brunt of Hurricane Irma when it hits 
• Parts of the Georgia coast, Miami and the entirety of the Florida Keys are now under mandatory evacuation
• Evacuations went into effect in the Florida Keys on Wednesday and Miami on Thursday 
• Georgia ordered the evacuation of the state's coastal areas - including the city of Savannah - on Thursday
• Hurricane Irma, a powerful Category 5 storm, is expected to hit south Florida Sunday morning
• The category 5 storm has caused devastation in the Caribbean, killing at least 13 so far: Eight on St. Martin, three in Puerto Rico, one in Barbuda and one in Anguilla
• Extensive damage has been reported on Barbuda and St Martin, with more than 90 per cent of buildings damaged on both islands
  

'Hunker down, stay where you are': Irma pummels Turks and Caicos with 175mph winds - as Caribbean islands already torn apart by Hurricane rush against the clock for a second round with Category 3 Jose

• 'Monster' Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Turks and Caicos islands Thursday evening into early Friday
• The category 5 storm has killed at least 13 so far: Eight on St. Martin, three in Puerto Rico, one in Barbuda and one in Anguilla
• The islands' governor John Freeman said that, for now, people are pretty much on their own on the islands 
• Extensive damage has been reported on Barbuda and St Martin, with more than 90% of buildings damaged on both islands  
• Some 900,000 people are without power on Puerto Rico and at least 50,000 people are without water 
• The hurricane is expected to continue past eastern Cuba before veering north for Florida at the weekend
• Red Cross said it is preparing for 'a major humanitarian response' as UN estimated 49million will be affected
• Mandatory evacuations were ordered in the Florida Keys and parts of Miami as the scale of the storm emerged
  

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4864012/Irma-pummels-Turks-Caicos-175mph-winds.html

Live updates from RT

Live updates from RT

Hurricane Irma on track for direct hit on Miami – Live updates

Florida nuclear plants to shut ahead of Hurricane Irma

Electricity generator Florida Power & Light said on Thursday it will shut its two nuclear power plants before Irma comes ashore as a very powerful hurricane.

FPL, a subsidiary of NextEra Energy Inc, generates enough power for about 1.9 million homes at the Turkey Point and St. Lucie plants, which are both along Florida’s Atlantic Coast, about 20 feet (6 meters) above sea level.

“We will safely shut down these nuclear plants well in advance of hurricane-force winds, and we’ve finalized plans for that shutdown,” FPL spokesman Rob Gould told a news conference.

The company will adjust the plans as necessary, “depending upon the path of the storm,” Gould said. He would not comment on exactly when the plants would be taken down or how long they could be shut.

The Energy Department said late on Thursday that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission expects Turkey Point to close on Friday evening and St. Lucie to shut about 12 hours later, depending on the storm’s path.

MassiveEvacuation Underway as Florida Prepares for Deadly Hurricane Irma

With Texas and Louisiana still trying to come to grips with the destruction of Hurricane Harvey, Florida has gone into full preparation mode as Category 5 Hurricane Irma makes its way toward the Sunshine State.

State officials have already called for residents to head to shelters and obey all evacuations orders: more than 100,000 were told to evacuate from Miami-Dade County starting early Thursday.

FEMA Chief, Miami Beach Mayor Warn: "Get Out Now, This Is A Devastating, Nuclear Hurricane"

ZeroHedge,

7 September, 2017

After laying waste to the Northern Caribbean and leaving most of bankrupt Puerto Rico without power - perhaps for months - Hurricane Irma, still a category five storm, is expected to make landfall near Miami this weekend. Florida Gov. Rick Scott has already declared a state of emergency, and last night more than 100,000 Miami-Dade residents in Miami Beach and low-lying mainland areas were instructed to leave their homes by Miami Mayor Carlos Gimenez, who issued his first evacuation order.

Now, FEMA Chief Brock Long says that the storm will have a "truly devastating" impact when it slams into southern coastal areas of the US, adding that people in Florida and other states must heed evacuation orders after the storm killed more than 10 people in the Caribbean.

The FEMA chief said Irma would be only the fourth Category Five hurricane to hit the United States since 19851, conjuring memories of Hurricane Andrew, which demolished parts of Florida in 1992.

"Bottom line is the majority of people along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane like this. It will be truly devastating," he told CNN.

While mandatory evacuation orders have so far only been issued in parts of Florida, Brock expects similar orders to be issued for Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina within the next 48 hours, Long said: "The entire southeastern United States better wake up and pay attention," he added.

The mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine also warned that Irma could have an impact of "nuclear" proportions, though it was unclear if he was referring to the two nuclear power plants that lie directly in the path of the hurricane.

“We have talked to people in your city who say, ‘We ain’t going,’” CBS4’s Hank Tester told Levine. “I hate to hear that. I’ll do anything in my power to convince them this is a very serious storm. This is a nuclear hurricane. They should leave the beach, they must leave the beach."

"As you know, as of yesterday, I have been telling our residents I strongly urge they please leave Miami Beach. You have friends, you have family – go visit them,” Levine said. “Get out of the barrier island and I am very happy Mayor Gimenez issue the mandatory evacuation early this evening.”

The storm is massive and already doing catastrophic damage to several island nations, Levine said.

“This storm will envelope us whether it is off shore or on shore. It won’t make a difference,” Levine said.

As weather forecaster Michael Ventrice noted on Twitter, Miami remains the most likely major city to experience hurricane-force winds because of Irma.

Here is the latest Calibrated City-level probabilities to see Hurricane force winds (>73mph); Miami leading the way but East Coast %s rising

Long, whose agency is still busy with the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, which hit Texas and Louisiana last month, said around 3,000 federal workers have been mobilized to deal with the emergency. A Harvey relief bill has passed the House, and looks to soon become law after Trump made a deal with Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. Otherwise, the agency risks running out of funding by the end of the week. Three navy ships are also anchored off the coast of Puerto Rico "to support life-saving missions,” Long said, although there have so far been no reports of major damage after Irma swept over the island on Wednesday night.

Floridians who are fleeing Miami-Dade, Broward County, Palm Beach and elsewhere were finding highways and backstreets transformed into parking lots as the scramble to get out of the path of the storm creates epic traffic bottlenecks.

Meanwhile, supplies of water, gas and other necessities were running out as residents stocked up...

Panic Buying Leaves 40% Of Miami Stations Out Of Gas

Black people abandoned in Houston as they were in New Orleans

Racism and the evacuation of residents during Hurricane Harvey

I have never forgotten the coverage of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005. 

 I recall being riveted to broadcasts from Amy Goodman of Democacy Now! and hearing the searing accounts of racism and sheer inhumanity towards others.

I now realise from one discussion with a friend that many people are too young or simply don’t remember the events for various reasons.

When I saw videos of people being rescued it did not escape my attention that black faces were conspicuous by their absence except for those doing the rescuing. Lots of stories of elderly white people, even dogs and horses – but no black people.

Today I found two videos that demonstrate that the more things change the more they stay the same.

PROOF Black People Are Being ABANDONED In Houston

“They opened the levees on black neighbourhoods”

Woman tells the truth about what happening to black people in Houston

“Who do I ring to get rescued?”

“Ring Jesus”

There is not nearly the same coverage from Democracy Now! this time round but they did do this story about how the Red Cross and aid agencies are just leaving people largely to fend for themselves

The Red Cross Won't Save Houston. Texas Residents Are Launching Community Relief Efforts Instead

What I remember clearly from Hurricane Katrina is the story of how the DN team found a black corpse and their attempts to get someone to take it away. The rang the police who said “ring FEMA” (these may not be the exact agencies. They rang FEMA who said “ring the police”...and so on.

And the other story was how prisoners were left to drown in their cells by the authorities who evacuated themselves.

This is from Human Rights Watch

New Orleans: Prisoners Abandoned to Floodwaters

Officers Deserted a Jail Building, Leaving Inmates Locked in Cells

Human Rights Watch,

21 September, 2005

As Hurricane Katrina began pounding New Orleans, the sheriff's department abandoned hundreds of inmates imprisoned in the city’s jail, Human Rights Watch said today.

Inmates in Templeman III, one of several buildings in the Orleans Parish Prison compound, reported that as of Monday, August 29, there were no correctional officers in the building, which held more than 600 inmates. These inmates, including some who were locked in ground-floor cells, were not evacuated until Thursday, September 1, four days after flood waters in the jail had reached chest-level.

“Of all the nightmares during Hurricane Katrina, this must be one of the worst,” said Corinne Carey, researcher from Human Rights Watch. “Prisoners were abandoned in their cells without food or water for days as floodwaters rose toward the ceiling.”

Human Rights Watch called on the U.S. Department of Justice to conduct an investigation into the conduct of the Orleans Sheriff's Department, which runs the jail, and to establish the fate of the prisoners who had been locked in the jail. The Louisiana Department of Public Safety and Corrections, which oversaw the evacuation, and the Orleans Sheriff’s Department should account for the 517 inmates who are missing from the list of people evacuated from the jail.

Carey spent five days in Louisiana, conducting dozens of interviews with inmates evacuated from Orleans Parish Prison, correctional officers, state officials, lawyers and their investigators who had interviewed more than 1,000 inmates evacuated from the prison.

The sheriff of Orleans Parish, Marlin N. Gusman, did not call for help in evacuating the prison until midnight on Monday, August 29, a state Department of Corrections and Public Safety spokeswoman told Human Rights Watch. Other parish prisons, she said, had called for help on the previous Saturday and Sunday. The evacuation of Orleans Parish Prison was not completed until Friday, September 2.

According to officers who worked at two of the jail buildings, Templeman 1 and 2, they began to evacuate prisoners from those buildings on Tuesday, August 30, when the floodwaters reached chest level inside. These prisoners were taken by boat to the Broad Street overpass bridge, and ultimately transported to correctional facilities outside New Orleans.

But at Templeman III, which housed about 600 inmates, there was no prison staff to help the prisoners. Inmates interviewed by Human Rights Watch varied about when they last remember seeing guards at the facility, but they all insisted that there were no correctional officers in the facility on Monday, August 29. A spokeswoman for the Orleans parish sheriff’s department told Human Rights Watch she did not know whether the officers at Templeman III had left the building before the evacuation.

According to inmates interviewed by Human Rights Watch, they had no food or water from the inmates' last meal over the weekend of August 27-28 until they were evacuated on Thursday, September 1. By Monday, August 29, the generators had died, leaving them without lights and sealed in without air circulation. The toilets backed up, creating an unbearable stench.

“They left us to die there,” Dan Bright, an Orleans Parish Prison inmate told Human Rights Watch at Rapides Parish Prison, where he was sent after the evacuation.

As the water began rising on the first floor, prisoners became anxious and then desperate. Some of the inmates were able to force open their cell doors, helped by inmates held in the common area. All of them, however, remained trapped in the locked facility.

“The water started rising, it was getting to here,” said Earrand Kelly, an inmate from Templeman III, as he pointed at his neck. “We was calling down to the guys in the cells under us, talking to them every couple of minutes. They were crying, they were scared. The one that I was cool with, he was saying ‘I'm scared. I feel like I'm about to drown.' He was crying.”

Some inmates from Templeman III have said they saw bodies floating in the floodwaters as they were evacuated from the prison. A number of inmates told Human Rights Watch that they were not able to get everyone out from their cells.

Inmates broke jail windows to let air in. They also set fire to blankets and shirts and hung them out of the windows to let people know they were still in the facility. Apparently at least a dozen inmates jumped out of the windows.

”We started to see people in T3 hangin' shirts on fire out the windows,” Brooke Moss, an Orleans Parish Prison officer told Human Rights Watch. “They were wavin' em. Then we saw them jumping out of the windows . . . Later on, we saw a sign, I think somebody wrote `help' on it.”

As of yesterday, signs reading “Help Us,” and “One Man Down,” could still be seen hanging from a window in the third floor of Templeman III.

Several corrections officers told Human Rights Watch there was no evacuation plan for the prison, even though the facility had been evacuated during floods in the 1990s.

“It was complete chaos,” said a corrections officer with more than 30 years of service at Orleans Parish Prison. When asked what he thought happened to the inmates in Templeman III, he shook his head and said: “Ain't no tellin’ what happened to those people.”

“At best, the inmates were left to fend for themselves,” said Carey. “At worst, some may have died.”

Human Rights Watch was not able to speak directly with Orleans Parish Sheriff Marlin N. Gussman or the ranking official in charge of Templeman III. A spokeswoman for the sheriff’s department told Human Rights Watch that search-and-rescue teams had gone to the prison and she insisted that “nobody drowned, nobody was left behind.”

Human Rights Watch compared an official list of all inmates held at Orleans Parish Prison immediately prior to the hurricane with the most recent list of the evacuated inmates compiled by the state Department of Corrections and Public Safety (which was entitled, “All Offenders Evacuated”). However, the list did not include 517 inmates from the jail, including 130 from Templeman III.

Many of the men held at jail had been arrested for offenses like criminal trespass, public drunkenness or disorderly conduct. Many had not even been brought before a judge and charged, much less been convicted.

****

Here are two other stories.


The Democracy Now! archives on Hurricane Katrina can be found HERE

African American Residents Tell Story of Survival, Blast Racially-Skewed Government Response

Democracy Now! producers get reports from African-American survivors of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. We hear from a woman at the convention center and a record store owner from the city’s Algiers neighborhood. [includes rush transcript]

One week after Hurricane Katrina smashed into the Gulf Coast, nearly the entire population of New Orleans has been evacuated. The streets are deserted and littered with fallen trees and twisted metal. Nearly 80 percent of the city remains submerged in water and the number of dead is unknown.

Most of the nearly 500,000 residents of New Orleans have been driven into what the New York Times calls a "modern-day Diaspora of biblical proportions."

But before the evacuation, tens of thousands of mostly poor African-American residents endured days of appalling conditions as they waited to be rescued. Survivors told horror stories from inside the SuperDome and the convention center. Others had stayed at home to avoid the mayhem.

Democracy Now! producers John Hamilton and Sharif Abdel Kouddous traveled to the convention center on Sunday afternoon. The site was completely evacuated–well almost. Three people remained at the site from the tens of thousands that had passed though over the previous week. They sat alone among the rows of empty chairs strewn outside. One of them told her story.

We speak with three residents of New Orleans who were forced to flee–David Gladstone, Beverly Wright and Curtis Muhammad–about who gets saved and who doesn’t and even the question: will New Orleans be rebuilt? [includes rush transcript]

Well there are is still no official toll of the numbers left dead by the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. But as the Army Corps of Engineers began pumping the water out of the city earlier this week, officials estimated that the death the toll could be as many as 10,000 making it one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the country. More than 500,000 evacuees from Hurricane Katrina are being relocated to other states all across the country. It is a historic exodus and it is unclear what will happen to them and what support they will receive to try and rebuild their lives. An Associated Press analysis of Census data shows that the people living in the path of the hurricane’s worst devastation were twice as likely as most Americans to be lower income and without a car. The dead and the displaced are largely the ones who had no where to go, and no means to get there. They were the ones who waited for days at the New Orleans Convention Center and at other places throughout the city, without adequate food, medicine, housing and security. And they were mostly black and largely poor.

New Orleans is a city that is almost 70 percent black with nearly 23 percent of its residents living in poverty. Many African Americans are asking if this calamity would have been allowed to happen if the demographics of the city were different. And they are asking if the response would have been quicker if New Orleans had been a predominately white, wealthy city. On his way to Louisiana a few days ago, Reverend Jesse Jackson said that racial discrimination and indifference to black suffering was at the root of the disaster response. He went on to say, "In this same city of New Orleans where slave ships landed, where the legacy of 246 years of slavery and 100 years of Jim Crow discrimination, that legacy is unbroken today."

The Reverend Al Sharpton spoke in Houston on Saturday and noted the difference between the government’s rapid response to the hurricane in Florida last year that hit mostly white upper-middle class areas and to Hurricane Katrina that hit the mostly black New Orleans and Mississippi.

****

Looking back after 10 years

"George Bush Doesn't Care About Black People": Reflections on Kanye West's Criticism 10 Years After

Just in case you think that this is all about heartless Republicans, George W Bush and Donald Trump here is a story from 2011 and Hurrican Irene.

NYC Criticized For Failing To Evacuate Prisoners at Riker's Island Ahead of Hurricane Irene