Showing posts with label Mariupol. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mariupol. Show all posts

Saturday, 15 December 2018

Developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis


US Soldiers Leave Canceled Amid Russian Ukrainian Armed Stand-off



Israeli News Live

In Germany 100's of US soldiers have their leave canceled amid the Ukraine Russian Crises. 

The Ukrainian military has begun a major offensive with battle tanks against the Donetsk Airport, or whats left of it. 

At the same time Ukraine has claimed that Russia has moved in 100 SU-27 and 30's to Crimea and has 5 subs of the coast. 

Now we hear that Ukraine and Russian forces have shelled each other near the Russian border of Mariupol Ukraine.










Monday, 26 January 2015

Stratfor discusses Ukraine

This is from Stratfor, so it could perhaps be regarded as a more serious western analysis of the situation in Ukraine

Red Alert Update: At the Heart of the Mariupol Crisis



25 January, 2015


Analysis


As the situation on the ground quiets down in the wake of the Jan. 24 barrage by Russian-allied forces near the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, Stratfor is continuing the watch initiated by our Red Alert. We believe, at the very least, that Russia is keeping its option to mount an offensive open, and at most, is preparing to launch an offensive to secure its hold on the Crimean Peninsula.


The artillery barrage in Mariupol has died down, and according to the Ukrainian military's local commander, there have been no attacks today. Some diplomacy is spinning up, and mutual charges of responsibility are being exchanged. The pro-Russian faction is blaming the Ukrainian military for the attack, and the Ukrainians are charging that the Russian military initiated the barrage, not Ukrainian pro-Russian factions. The fog of war is being supplemented by deliberate disinformation on all sides. The issue is whether this was an isolated incident or part of an extended strategy. If it is, it is not a Ukrainian strategy. Following recent defeats, Ukraine is not in a position to go on the offensive in this region, despite a noticeable build up and mobilization of Ukrainian forces in recent weeks. The Russians, however, have been moving regular forces, including some first-rate units, into Donbas. More important than the charges and counter-charges is this fact: At this moment, the rebels are being strongly reinforced by Russian forces, and those forces have an operational advantage but a strategic problem.




Consider this from the standpoint of a Russian military planner. The operational advantage is that the separatists have more and better forces available for combat. The strategic problem is that this advantage is temporary. If the United States chooses to increase arms transfers and training, the operational gap will close in 6-12 months. The rebels' broader strategic problem is geographical. Russia holds Crimea, but it has little sustainable contact with its forces there. Both sea and air transport can be interdicted. The best access to the peninsula is by land, but the routes are heavily defended by mobile and strategic surface to air missiles and armor to the north. Opening the route up would not be easy, but it would dramatically increase Ukraine's cost of severing Russia's link to Crimea. Without this, blockading Crimea would be relatively easy for the United States, Ukraine and other allies once their capabilities are increased and more units are deployed.


There is a connection to Crimea over the Kerch Strait from Russia proper of course, now based on ferry traffic but with plans for a bridge. But if war were to come, such tenuous links can easily be closed by a capable enemy. They are useful in peacetime, but vulnerable in war and near-war situations.


Ukraine's Geographic Challenge



If Russia is serious about holding on to Crimea, it has a diplomatic route and a military route that it can use. The diplomatic route would be to gain international recognition of its hold on Crimea. That will be difficult to get, certainly if Russia is passive. The alternative is to create a military presence that might be attacked but would have significant ability to resist. The third option is to use the threat of an attack on Ukrainian positions to force a more favorable political settlement. If that fails, Russia still has the superior strategic position that it has now.


If the Russians are serious about holding Crimea, and if their calculation of how the correlation of forces will shift over coming months is the same as ours, then they now have a window of opportunity to redefine the strategic reality using their current operational superiority. Whether this results in a diplomatic settlement instead of further combat will be up to the West.


The counter-argument will be that, given Russia's economic problems, the diplomatic consequences of further offensive operations would increase the strain on Russia. From a political point of view, however, pure passivity in the face of sanctions that are not the critical factor in Russia's economic downturn will hurt the government's legitimacy at home while offering no real economic advantage. In addition, the Americans are not eager for a Ukrainian conflict while their forces are engaged in the Middle East. Therefore, while nothing is certain, a Russian strategist might well calculate that the risks of passivity are higher than those that come with an offensive. The military buildup in Donbas, the concentration of artillery, certain incursions by Russian aircraft that would be needed to keep Western aircraft at a distance from the battle zone, including aircraft with standoff anti-armor capabilities, indicate to us that the Russians are at least keeping this option open, and at most, are preparing to launch an offensive.


Good strategy involves creating options while withholding commitment to any particular course until the political and diplomatic possibilities are played out in the context of a build up. It would seem to us that this is what the Russians are doing, while signaling capability if not yet intent. However, the Americans sending the commander of the U.S. Army to Kiev on a very public visit is a signal that the window is closing. That forces Russia to make decisions sooner rather than later.


The Red Alert we issued yesterday was triggered by what appeared to be artillery preparation by the Russians at exactly the point when a move toward Crimea would be launched. That was alarming. We think it was meant by the Russians to be alarming, a warning of Russian operational superiority and strategic imperatives. Things have quieted down. The quiet ought not to be taken as the end of anything.


We call Red Alerts when action is underway. While the action has now halted, the underlying crisis is intensifying. There are exits from the path to an offensive, though it is not clear that either side is prepared to pay the toll needed for the exit.


"Red Alert Update: At the Heart of the Mariupol Crisis is republished with permission of Stratfor."


Sunday, 25 January 2015

Ukraine civil war - update - 01/24/2015

Ukraine’s parliament to gather for extraordinary session on Sunday

On Saturday, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko initiated an emergency meeting of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council


24 January, 2015


KIEV, January 24. /TASS/. Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada /parliament/ will gather for an extraordinary session on Sunday, Yuri Lutsenko, the leader of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc faction, wrote on his Facebook account on Saturday.

We are preparing an extraordinary session of the Verkhovna Rada tomorrow,” he wrote.

Earlier on Saturday, Rada speaker Vladimir Groisman said the parliament might meet for an extraordinary plenary session after a meeting of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council scheduled for January 25. In his words, the lawmakers “must be ready to act and take necessary urgent decisions.”

On Saturday, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko initiated an emergency meeting of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council on January 25 over the deterioration of the situation in eastern Ukraine after artillery shelling of the city of Mariupol. To attend this meeting, the Ukrainian president cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia. The meeting is to “work out and take extra steps over the quickly deteriorating situation in eastern regions.”.



Fish Rots From The Head: Ukrainian Military Leadership in Disarray

Previously unknown details of the airport assault: Ukrainianchief of staff has the blood of Ukrainian soldiers on his hand.


24 January, 2015


1/24/2015


Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

DPR Intelligence has confirmed reports that the Ukrainian forces during the fighting in the vicinity of the Donetsk airport were personally commanded by the Ukrainian General Staff Chief V. Muzhenko.

This information has been obtained through intercepted Ukrainian General Staff telephone communications. They reveal that Muzhenko personally issued the order to dispatch the tank column from the town of Tonenkoye toward the airport.

Fearing treason and not trusting the B-sector commanders, Muzhenko personally planned the failed operation to break through to the Ukrainian forces surrounded at the new terminal, and relieved of command several “unreliable” commanders.

By his orders, the Ukrainian soldiers moving to attack the airport received their combat tasks only as they were approaching the battlefield. This caused several tank drivers to sabotage their vehicles. Due to “technical problems”, six tanks and 3 BMPs failed to reach the battlefield.

The zeal shown by Muzhenko was motivated by Turchinov’s publically declared intent to inspect Ukrainian military units in the vicinity of the Donetsk Airport. Muzhenko’s task was to “clear” the airport and convince his bosses he was capable of controlling the situation. Muzhenko’s attempt to demonstrate his political loyalty once again sent Ukrainian soldiers to their deaths. Their blood is on his hands.

Translator’s Note: There no honor among thieves--nor among the members of the Ukrainian political and military elite. The situation is exactly as it was during the battles of the summer of 2014, when mutual mistrust among commanders at various levels and the resulting lack of cooperation facilitated the defeat of the Ukrainian attempt to overrun DPR and LPR. Novorossia’s tactical gains on the ground are probably outweighed by the disarray they have caused among the senior military leadership of the country. Many of the senior officers of the Ukrainian military were purged because of their lack of proper enthusiasm for the Maidan. Their places were occupied by incompetents whose main attribute was political loyalty. Now that their incompetence is being shown, it leads not only to recriminations among those commanders and the political leadership, but undermines the soldiers’ trust in their own commanders. This is a major advantage that Novorossia enjoys over its adversaries. From Zakharchenko to individual battalion commanders, Novorossia’s soldiers are led by leaders who are both competent and trusted.


Frontline Update: January 24 Morning



24 January, 2015


By Cassad

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Our forces are approaching the outskirts of Mariupol, pushing the defenders into the city, our forward assault teams have begun to infiltrate the city just like in September. In the area of Debaltsevo salient our forces are attacking not only the “openings” of the salient but also its walls, making Ukrainian reserves maneuver difficult, and enemy communications/supply routes are being regularly shelled. We are expecting the junta to bring reserves into action by the evening in the area west of Svetlodarsk to prevent a full encirclement of the Debaltsevo grouping. 

Nevertheless, junta’s situation is growing more difficult, as Novorossia forces are gradually creating conditions for the largest encirclement since the beginning of the wary, or when Strelkov trapped 5.5-6 thousand Ukrainians in the southern pocket. The Ilovaysk and Ambrosievka pocket that was created after the “northern wind” began to blow, trapped 5-5.5 thousand Ukrainians. The Debaltsevo pocket might trap 7-8 thousand which, while not a lethal blow for the junta, it would be a catastrophic defeat that would make its future offensive operations impossible for a long time.

Zakharchenko once again confirmed today that the “Minsk ceasefire” is finished, and one can’t help feeling happy about that. If they resume the haggling over the ceasefire, it will be only after the front line has changed its location, which will likewise totally change the background for the negotiations. The reasons the ceasefire idea had failed were entirely objective, even though its propagandists were trying to the very end pull the wool over everyone’s eyes.

Strelkov’s Novorossia movement held a conference in Moscow. Lots of people showed up, from nationalists to communists. One of the pleasing news was the announced level of financial support received so far: 100 million rubles. The movement is going well, Strelkov is even being allowed to appear on TV. While as late as October the existence of the movement was still in doubt but, as we know, the pathfinder clears the path.


Interview with Matros "It's only the beginning" New Terminal 21/01/15






I've got no idea what to make of this, so will just post the material. If the Saker is right this open up infighting which the Kiev junta may exploit

A most unpleasant thing to post


Dear friends,

While I often post stuff I don't agree with, this time around I am going to post something which I find most disturbing, but which I strongly believe has to be aired.

As you might have heard, the mayor of Pervomaisk, Evgeny Ischenko, has been shot.  Some (many?) are accusing Plotnitsky, just as in the case of Batman. I am not taking sides here, but I find the following video very disturbing because it does show something weird: Plotnitsky seemingly praising Ischenko and the footage of the latter absolutely infuriated by Plotnitsky and Zakharchenko.  Notice that Ischenko also speaks some nonsense, for example when he praises Cossack units and their commanders when, in reality, Cossack forces are, by and large, 2nd rate and are not trusted with any critical sectors.  The folks who made the video, FallenUSSoliders, clearly have a fixation on Jews, they also buy into the "Russian oligarchs" betraying Novorussia narrative, but you don't have to agree with that to notice that two fierce opponents of Plotnitsky have been recently killed and that regardless of whether this is true of not there are plenty of folks in Novorussia who feel not only betrayed by Russia, but even attacked by the Kremlin or Russian oligarchs.  

Here is the video:



Okay, just to make things clear: I am not endorsing this version, nor am I blaming Plotnitsky, Zakharchenko or anybody else.  I am just saying that this version is gradually acquiring more and more traction and that his is very bad for Novorussia.  Personally, I think that Plotnitsky should resign until he can clear his name because regardless of whether is is to blame for what is going on, he is clearly not a consensus figure and many key figures do not trust him.  As for Zakharchenko, who apparently is far more popular, he needs to sit down with the "opposition" and try to achieve a broad consensus in specific key issues.  For example, Zakharchenko has now declared a) that the ceasefire is over and b) the the Minks agreements are de-facto dead.  Okay - he said it. Nobody made him.  Now stick to it even if the Kremlin is unhappy about it.  One of Zakharchenko's key roles is to be an effective representative of the Novorussian interests before Putin (who has first and foremost Russian, not Novorussian, interest to defend, as it should be) but for that he also needs to convince his people, the Novorussians, that he is not Putin's puppet but their leader.

There is a prefect precedent for this: contrary to what the doubleplusgoodthinking AngloZionist propaganda says, Hezbollah is not Iran's puppet at all.  The relationship between Iran and Hezbollah is one of partners and allies, even if clearly one partner is bigger and more powerful then the other.  And, yes, Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah are followers of Ali Khamenei, but the Iranians are wise enough to always treat Hezbollah as a respected friend, not a puppet.  Putin and Zakharchenko need to follow that mode as at the end of the day, it yields a far stronger alliance then the subservient "puppet - puppeteer" model (normally used by the USA and West Europeans).

One more thing: I don't know where the authors of this video got the idea that Plotnitskii is a Jew, but I found no evidence of that. 

Anyway, I am posting all this just to make a simple point: there are problems inside Novorussia and in the relationship between Russia and Novorussia which greatly weaken the good side and which can be exposited by the Nazis.  Perceptions matter and if these issues are not addressed, things will just get worse.

The Saker


Igor Plotnitsky talks about 


the murder of the mayor of 


Pervomaysk Evgeny 


Ishchenko





January 23, 2015
Infofront - Youtube
Translated from Russian by Kristina Rus


Igor Plotnitsky (I.P.): With sadness I would like to report that we became witness to another crime of Kiev authorities against peaceful residents and the government of Lugansk People's Republic. Evgeny Ishchenko, whom I have appointed as a mayor of the city of Pervomaysk, was killed yesterday, and discovered today. This person fulfilled his duties honorably, principally and firmly. Was fighting for the interests of his residents, and understood the goals and tasks of building the Republic as a whole.

I want to express my condolences to the families and loved ones of the killed.I gave strict orders to find the perpetrators, because we already know who are the masterminds. I am sure that the perpetrators will be found in the shortest time. He had three volunteers with him, who were distributing humanitarian aid.

Reporter: Were they from Russia?

I.P: As far as I know they were locals. They disappeared yesterday. Everyone was looking for them. Today they were discovered somewhere on the outskirts of the city. They came under fire of a Ukrainian recon-subversive group, which is seen from the manner of the attack. Those who were on the right ran to the right, and he ran to the left, he was discovered 70 meters from the car. It was an execution.

This is another crime against our peaceful residents, our residents and people's government. He used to be a military, but he has since became a civil servant, defending the interests of his own city, his own people. But unfortunately they do not stop at killing peaceful civilians.

R.: Why didn't he have security?

I.P: The question is not about security, even Kennedy had security. The issue is that he was doing his job faithfully. He was distributing humanitarian aid, we coordinated with them about deliveries.

Prosecutor, special services are investigating. They stumbled on a recon-subversive group, which destroyed regular people. They were in a civil vehicle. They didn't care that they were civilians. They all got executed.

R,: Who are the masterminds?

I.P: The Kiev armed forces, Poroshenko regime. We will find the perpetrators. Recon-subversive groups often come here, but rarely leave.

R.: What's the likelihood that these subversive groups are not sent here to destroy the first officials of the republic?

I.P: We are not aware about such goals, but the likelihood exists. But it doesn't change our regime, our conscience, our approach. No one is afraid anymore. This doesn't change anything for our work. They used to sent them, are sending them,and will send, them, so what? This has no relation to our work. But as we were working, we will continue to work, as we were rebuilding, we will continue to rebuild, as we were winning. we will continue to win. Including today.

R.: Thank you

I.P: You are welcome


Ukraine civil war: 21 die after shelling of Mariupol

E. Ukraine militia denies shelling Mariupol, accuses Kiev of provocation


A car burns following a shelling in Mariupol, eastern Ukraine, January 24, 2015. (Reuters/Nikolai Ryabchenko)

RT,
24 January, 2015


The death toll in the Mariupol shelling in eastern Ukraine has reached at least 30 people, local authorities say. Kiev and the militia are trading blame. The rebels insist they don’t have weapons close enough to attack the city.

Twenty-three people died at the scene, including one child. Another 93 people have been injured, including eight children,” a statement from local authorities said. Another seven people died in hospitals, it added. But Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov later said that 102 people have sustained injuries.

Two children – a 15-year old girl and a boy about five years old” are among the dead, the statement reads.

Our militias have no weapon systems near Mariupol that would be able to shell that region. Our positions are simply too far away,” a spokesman for the Donetsk militia headquarters told RIA Novosti.

According to our intelligence, the artillery fired from the Stariy Krim neighborhood [less than 10 kilometers from central Mariupol]. Ukrainian troops are stationed there. We believe it was a provocation committed by the Ukrainian troops,” the spokesman dded.

The deputy speaker of the DPR parliament, Denis Pushilin, has called the artillery shelling in Mariupolyet another provocation” by Kiev who are pushing the development of the situation in the military direction.”

"It is all clear, who shelled Mariupol: from which regions they are, from which spot and where the artillery was located. As far as I know, [rockets were] fired by a Grad multiple rocket launcher. Our militia units don’t have artillery capable of reaching the location of the shelling,” Pushilin said.



The comment comes after a local Ukrainian Interior Ministry official accused their opponents of shelling the city some 110 kilometers south of the militia stronghold in Donetsk.The assessment was confirmed by Eduard Basurin, a military official in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, who told RT that the rebel forces are not conducting any offensive on Mariupol at the moment.

Mariupol City Hall earlier said that 16 people were killed and 83 injured.
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. Восточный. улица Киевская
Several rockets have hit a residential area, seting several cars on fire and damaging a building. They are presumed to have been fired by a Grad multiple rocket launcher.
The strike hit Kyevskaya Street in the eastern part of the city. Ukrainian authorities said it was fired from an easterly position between the villages of Zaichenko and Sakhanka some 35 kilometers distant, according to Interfax-Ukraine. The militia’s claim puts the position of the launcher in a neighborhood about 30 kilometers west of the attacked area.
The city police said two checkpoints outside Mariupol were fired at on Saturday with no casualties reported.
The OSCE said it has dispatched people from the Mariupol observer mission to the area hit by artillery fire to conduct a fact-finding mission on the ground, according to RIA Novosti. The organization is expected to report on the situation later in the day.
I condemn this violent act in the strongest terms and call for a full investigation of the incident. I also convey my most sincere and deep condolences to the families of the victims and to the people of Ukraine,” the Head of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, Ambassador Ertugrul Apaka, said. "This dangerous situation can’t continue. We need an immediate ceasefire. Ukraine and its people need and deserve peace. The parties must return to the negotiating table without further delay and implement fully the Minsk agreements."

However, the deputy speaker of the DPR parliament Pushilin has blamed Ukraine for doing everything possible” to suspend peace talks.

How can we make agreements with people that aren’t responsible either for their words, or signatures and have clearly showed their incapability to reach agreements,” Pushilin told the Donetsk local news agency. They agree to meet in Minsk, but they don’t come.”

The Ukrainian government has called on its Western backers to immediately convene an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the development. The request was sent by Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk to the ambassadors of the G7 member states.
View image on Twitter
, рынок Киевский
Kiev’s troops and militia forces are locked in renewed hostilities after a shaky ceasefire has utterly collapsed. Kiev launched a massive offensive last week, but failed to gain any ground. Hopes of hostilities being deescalated are slim, with officials from both sides voicing their intention to continue fighting for their respective causes.
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Вот что творится на Восточном((( Просто ужас!
Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast in the Ukrainian Donetsk region, remained relatively insulated from violence, which was focused to the northeast..



Donetsk militia 'not going to storm Mariupol', trades accusations with Kiev





RT,
24 January, 2015


The Donetsk militia has been ordered to suppress Kiev’s military positions to the east of Mariupol, but is not going to storm the city, said Donetsk Republic head, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, accusing Kiev of a false flag operation and shifting the blame.

Until now, we weren’t conducting any operations outside Mariupol. We’re saving strength,” Zakharchenko was cited by RIA-Novosti news agency as saying.

But now, after Kiev decided to shift the blame on us for its erroneous fire from Grad multiple rocket launchers at residential areas [in Mariupol], I gave an order to suppress the positions of the Ukrainian military, stationed east of Mariupol,” he added.

Zakharchenko added that the forces of the People’s Republic of Donetsk (DPR) have no plans of storming the city itself.

The DPR leader said that in the last few days the Ukrainian side had relocated a large grouping of its troops to Mariupol.”

Day and night, our positions in the town of Novoazovsk are subjected to massive bombardment from Grad multiple rocket launchers and heavy artillery. Today, the armored vehicles from the 28th Ukrainian brigade have arrived in the area as well,” he stressed.

View image on Twitter
Mariopol NOW
According to Zakharchenko, Kiev is doing everything to make the rebels move the forces, which are now involved in the battle for the Donetsk airport, to Mariupol, to weaken us and dislodge us from there [the airport].”

The Ukrainian military is using the citizens of Mariupol as human shields,” the People’s Republic of Donetsk leader said.

Earlier, a DPR military official, Eduard Basurin, said that the Kiev forces have renewed their attempts to retake the strategically significant Donetsk airport on Saturday.
The Ukrainian military is trying to attack from the north, west and east. Hostilities are underway at the airport,” Basurin said, as cited by Interfax news agency.


According to the rebels, they established full control over the Donetsk airport on January 16, following an exhausting standoff with Kiev troops, which has been ongoing since May last year.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, has aborted his visit to Saudi Arabia for the funeral of King Abdullah, and has flown back to Kiev.
On his arrival, Poroshenko will host an urgent meeting of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council,” which was ordered to develop and implement more effective steps in view of the rapid deterioration of the situation in the east of the country,” the presidential press-service said.

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Mariupol today via @tombreadley
The EU has urged Moscow to persuade the leaders of the eastern Ukrainian militias to stop the hostilities, saying that the continued warfare in south-eastern Ukraine would inevitably lead to a further grave deterioration of relations between the EU and Russia,” according to a statement made by Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

The EU and the US keep blaming Russia for supporting the militias in Donbas. The claims have not been backed by any significant proof and have been repeatedly denied by Russian officials.

Approximately 30 people, including two children, were killed when the city of Mariupol, which has remained relatively insulated from violence during the majority of the Ukrainian conflict, was shelled on Saturday.
Kiev was quick to place the blame with the militia, saying that the bombardment was part of their advancement on the port.
The militia representatives denied the accusations and called the shelling yet another provocation” by the Ukrainian forces.

According to the DPR’s speaker of parliament, Denis Pushilin, the rebels simply don’t have the necessary long-range artillery equipment to hit the center of the city from their positions.
The Ukrainian conflict began last April when Kiev launched a military operation in the southeastern the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, after they refused to recognize the country’s new, coup-imposed authorities.
The death toll in the Ukraine conflict has exceeded 5,000 people. Over 10,000 have been injured, according to UN estimations.
According to Ukraine’s interior minister, Arsen Avakov, 30 people were killed and another 102 injured when the city of Mariupol, which has remained relatively insulated from violence during the majority of the Ukrainian conflict, was shelled on Saturday.

Just an "honest" mistake this time? Maybe




By now most of you would have heard about the artillery strike on the civilian outskirts of Mariupol.  The Nazis blamed the Novorussians, who denied it.  Turns out the locals saw it all and even filmed it.  Bottom line is this: this appears to be an "honest" mistakes, meaning that the Ukrainians were probably trying to hit the advancing Novorussians but that their salvo came in short (Ukie artillerists do not exactly have a reputation of being snipers...).  Here is a map sent to me this morning by a friend:


On the ground, it looked like this:


Ugly and scary, for sure.  And horrible for those who were hit, but what is forgotten in this story is that this is what Donetsk has been suffering every day and what Gorlovka is getting hit by daily, but in truly massive amounts.  And, unlike in Mariupol, Donetsk and Gorlovka are getting hit like that deliberately.

What the events in Mariupol do show, however, is that regardless of the expertise and caution taken by Novorussian artillery (it is considered very skilled as it always aims at precision strikes at Ukrainian positions in order to prevent the latter from hitting the Novorussian civilians), there are major risks in an operation to take a city like Mariupol.  If this time around it was probably just an "honest" mistake (to the degree that the word "honest" can be used for junta forces), the next time around it could be a deliberate SBU false flag.  For example, imagine this:

You are Poroshenko or Nalivaichenko and you asked the USA and the EU to declare the Novorussians "terrorists".  And then, for some reason, both the USA and the EU declined to do so (they did decline).  How would you go about proving them wrong?  The MH-17 and the recent civilian bus false flags failed, those pesky westerners still don't want to declare 7 million people as terrorists, so what would you do about it?

Exactly.

So the risk is real and huge.  So far, the Novorussians have played their hand very well, but their offensive on Mariupol has me nervous all for the same reasons as the first time around.  At least now they are moving in slowly and making darn sure that their lines of supply remain open and secure.  Still, this is a very dangerous situation and the events this morning show that even an "honest" Ukie mistake can be immediately turned into political ammunition to flame anti-Russian hysterics in the West.

The Saker


From Zero Hedge, reflecting western media



Pro-Separatist Rebels 

Launch Offensive On 

Ukraine City Of Mariupol, 

Where At Least 21 Die After 

Intense Shelling


24 January, 2015


Several days after a massive firefight for the Donetsk airport left the structure terminally ruined, and the Ukraine army, which until that moment had held on to its last remaining outpost in the east Ukraine city, promptly abandoned the premises, and two days after at least seven civilians died in a bus which was shelled in the same city by what the separatists claim were the Ukraine forces, the pro-Russian separatists yesterday announced they had launched "a new multipronged offensive against Ukrainian government troops."



As AP reported yesterday, the main separatist leader in the rebellious Donetsk region vowed to push Ukrainian soldiers out of the area and said insurgents would not take part in any more cease-fire talks. Another rebel went even further, saying they would not abide by a peace deal signed in September. Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko said rebel fighters went on the offensive to gain more territory and forestall a Ukrainian attack. He declared they would push government troops to the border of the Donetsk region and possibly beyond.

Which, according to the latest news, is precisely what they have done. As AP followed up, indiscriminate rocket fire slammed into a market, schools and homes Saturday in the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, killing at least 21 people, authorities said. Ukraine's top rebel leader announced that an offensive had begun on the strategically important port.

The latest photos from Mariupol confirm the attack:





As a reminder, Mariupol is a critical town, and the last remaining major Ukraine outpost on the Azov Sea, between Russia and the Crimea which Russia took control over last spring. 

The Russian RIA Novosti news agency cited eastern Ukrainian rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko as saying an offensive has begun on Mariupol. He spoke Saturday as he laid a wreath at the site where at least eight civilians died when a bus stop was shelled in Donetsk, the largest rebel-held city in eastern Ukraine.

AP adds that tebel forces have positions within 10 kilometers (six miles) from Mariupol's eastern outskirts.


The Defense Ministry said in a statement there were three separate strikes from Grad multiple rocket launchers on Mariupol and surrounding areas.

"The area that came under attack was massive," Mariupol mayor Yuriy Khotlubei said in a video statement. "The shelling was carried out by militants. This is very clearly Russian aggression that has caused terrible losses for the residents of the eastern part of our city."

The Donetsk region prosecutor's office said in a mid-afternoon statement that 21 people had been killed.

Defense and police officials said rockets struck homes, a kindergarten, a market and shops. There was no immediate report of how many people died in various  locations.

A Ukrainian military checkpoint on a road leading out of the city toward rebel-held areas was also hit and one serviceman was killed, the Defense Ministry said.
The Mariupol city council denied the report that a separatist incursion was imminent and urged residents not to panic and to ignore rumors that Ukrainian armed forces were planning to withdraw.


"On the contrary, all units are on fully battle-ready. Security measures in the city have been strengthened," the council said in a statement. No armed separatist units have been noted moving toward the city, the statement added.

The U.N. human rights agency on Friday raised its estimate of the conflict's overall death toll to nearly 5,100 since April.

On Thursday, mortars rained down on the center of the separatist stronghold of Donetsk, hitting a bus and killing several bystanders. Rebel officials said 13 were killed in that attack. Monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe cited city morgue officials as saying they have received eight bodies.

The OSCE's special monitoring mission (SMM) in east Ukraine on Saturday expressed concern over the growing number of civilian casualties and called for restraint from all sides.

"The SMM strongly condemns the continuation of the fighting in residential areas. Using residential areas as firing positions attracts counter-firing to these areas, further endangering the lives of civilians," the mission said in a statement.
About an hour ago, the European Union was quick to condemn that separatist attack on Mariupol, having said nothing at all for months over the comparable shelling, and arbitrary slaughter of citizens in separatist-controlled Donetsk. The EU's kneejerk assessment: it's Russia's fault - "I call therefore openly upon Russia to use its considerable influence over separatist leaders and to stop any form of military, political or financial support." The full statement below:


Statement by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini on the attack on Mariupol

Residential areas of the city of Mariupol have been fired upon today from separatist held territory, which has cost the lives of at least fifteen civilians, wounding many others and terrorising the innocent population. This comes after a series of indiscriminate attacks in the Donbas in the past few days, accompanied by the announcements of further offensives by Russia-backed separatists, who bluntly refuse to observe the cease fire.

This further escalation of the open armed conflict has tragic consequences for a population greatly suffering already for far too long. It would inevitably lead to a further grave deterioration of relations between the EU and Russia. 

I call therefore openly upon Russia to use its considerable influence over separatist leaders and to stop any form of military, political or financial support. This would prevent disastrous consequences for all. Those responsible for the escalation must stop their hostile actions and live up to their commitments.
Below is a clip of what residents in the Vostochniy district of Mariupol woke up to on Saturday morning after at least least three suspected Grad rockets struck the eastern part of the city. The shelling hit a residential area, with houses and a nearby market struck in the process.


And just like that the Ukraine civil war is right back front and center, and is sure to add a level of volatility to everything else that is already taking place.



Mariupol resident appeals to 

Poroshenko 24/01/15 Asks to 

take UAF troops out from 

town





BREAKING: Uniformed, Armed American Caught on Camera in Mariupol

An American mercenary caught on camera at 2’:35” in Mariupol among the junta's special forces,talks but hides his face






As you see forces of Donetsk and Lugansk republic make offensive in whole front line. 8000 fascists of Kiev junta with vehicles and ammunition are surrounded in the towns Debaltsevo (Дебальцево), Svetlogorsk (Светлогорск) and Uglegorsk (Углегорск). You see it in middle of map how "arrows" of Donetsk and Lugansk republic connected above white area. Also in top of map army of Lugansk republic going to surround Kiev junta forces in the cities S'chastye (Счастье) and Stanica Luganskaya (Станица Луганская). There are at least few thousands fascists with vehicles and ammunition.


In the lower part the map you see that Donetsk republic army surround fascists in the city Mariupol and villages around this city.

In fact this tactic is known from WWII, when fortified enemy positions our troops bypassed and cut off from the rest of the army of enemy. In same time enemy under constant attacks in whole front line, so can't to move troops from one part of front line to another.

Our forces use this old tactic because it allow to take from surrounded enemy vehicles and ammunition as fee for their live.


https://www.facebook.com/TruthfromUkraine/photos/a.1462094710680543.1073741828.1452285018328179/1601561246733888/?type=1&theater