After a bad start, ceasefire appears to be holding

It does seem that, in general, after initial shelling by Ukrainians surrounded at Debaltsevo, that the ceasefire is being observed, although the recent report below might indicate otherwise.

Watch this space.

‘Observed in general’: France, Germany, Kiev & rebels agree truce holding

RT,

15 Febraury, 2015

A ceasefire that came into force midnight in eastern Ukraine is being observed in general, France and Germany declared in a joint statement. Donetsk officials say they will withdraw heavy weapons in accord with the timeline set by the Minsk deal.

The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine was being generally observed despite local incidents, which were quickly resolved, said France and Germany's joint statement, issued by the Elysees Palace on Sunday. The statement was published after President Francois Hollande and Chancellor Angela Merkel held a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin and President Petro Poroshenko.

The Normandy Four leaders are also set to continue talks Monday, according to Ukraine’s presidential website.

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Putin had a telephone conversation with Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko over #Ukraine http://on.rt.com/u3frd4 

7:22 AM - 16 Feb 2015

Earlier in the day, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Euro, who observes the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, confirmed that it had been substantially implemented in the last 12 hours, with the exception of certain areas in Debaltsevo and Lugansk.

Ukraine mission head Ertuğrul Apakan added that the OSCE monitors failed to enter Debaltsevo, and called on both sides of the conflict to enable access to all territories in eastern Ukraine.

The number of OSCE monitors will be increased to 350, according to the OSCE spokesman for the monitoring mission in Ukraine, Michael Botsurkiv. He added that the mission will also use drones and satellite images to monitor the holding of the ceasefire.

The spokesperson of Ukraine's Joint Staff, Vladislav Seleznev, has confirmed that all shelling of Ukrainian positions has stopped at 3 AM local time. "The military posture is fairly stable," reported Donetsk region's police chief Vyacheslav Abroskin.

The Donetsk militia representative Eduard Basurin that in the morning the rebel forces "selectively" taped the enemy batteries in response to provocative fire and that they would continue responding as promised earlier.

“We will start to withdraw heavy weaponry in accord with the Minsk agreement and [by the] time set," he dded.

Another militia leader Denis Pushilin denied that Donetsk officials had received any requests from OSCE to enter the Debaltsevo area.

READ MORE: E. Ukraine leaders order ceasefire, voice amendments to constitution

Despite the sporadic shelling that marred the morning, residents of Kramatorsk felt relieved with the coming of the ceasefire.

"I cannot say that optimism prevails... At least there are no sounds of shooting now,” journalist Kerstin Kronwall, who is in the city reporting for Yle, said.

Debaltsevo trap

The blissful silence in the morning, according to the rebels, lasted for less than an hour, as Ukrainian troops inflicted several mortar and artillery strikes on rebel forces guarding the perimeter of Debaltsevo mousetrap, where an estimated 5,000 Ukrainian task force is running out of munitions and ordnance while making attempts to break out.

The locked Ukrainian troops shelled settlements of Yenakievo and Gorlovka, as well as the territory of Donetsk airport, no so long ago handed over to the militia forces after months of severe firefight. But the living quarters of the city of Donetsk this time remained intact.

Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) head Aleksandr Zakharchenko said on the eve of the ceasefire that the entrapment near Debaltsevo is situated on the territory fully controlled by the rebel forces. This is interpreted that Minsk agreements on separation of the warring parties do not apply to the encircled Ukrainian servicemen.

“Please pay attention to the fact that there isn’t a word about Debaltsevo [entrapment] in Minsk agreements. That means that Ukraine has simply betrayed those 5,000 people in Debaltsevo trap,”Zakharchenko said, stressing that no negotiations about the entrapment is currently underway with Kiev.

"Any attempt of the Ukrainian armed forces to unblock Debaltsevo will be regarded as violation of the Minsk agreements, such attempts will be suppressed, adversaries will be eliminated,” he dded.

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Zakharchenko will not betray Donbass.

9:07 AM - 15 Feb 2015

The blockaded Ukrainian troops have been offered to turn in their weapons and surrender, but very littler number of servicemen has followed the call due to retreat-blocking detachments of Ukrainian nationalists guarding the troops in the rear of their positions.

Commenting on the remark made by Zakharchenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman said that the accords underpinning Ukraine truce must be “unconditionally observed.”

"All the sequences of actions have been mentioned in the package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreement. All those terms have to be observed unconditionally," Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Kiev authorities have been consistently denying the very existence of the Debaltsevo entrapment. Yet Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has told Ukrainian Joint Staff that the peace process is under the threat of failure because of the situation at Debaltsevo.

“I’ve warned you on that,” Poroshenko stressed.

Will ceasefire old?

In the meantime France’s TV5 Monde aired the disastrous humanitarian catastrophe the Donbass locals find themselves in. The people there trust no one and do not believe a peace with Kiev is tangible.

“They have proclaimed ceasefire many times but never respected it,” a local woman told French reporters.

That was exactly the case with Ukraine’s Right Sector leader Dmitry Yarosh, who said his radical movement rejects the Minsk peace deal and that their paramilitary units in eastern Ukraine will continue“active fighting” according to their “own plans.”

READ MORE: Ukraine ultranationalist leader rejects Minsk peace deal, vows 'to continue war'

After the truce came into force at 2:00 GMT, Yarosh made a statement of National Guards official website, saying “Two of mine finely armed and equipped battalions continue offensive near Debaltsevo and have serious achievements militarily.”

Several hours later the statement was deleted from the website.

Screenshot from vv.gov.ua

The rebels have informed that they need all of the territory of the Donetsk region under their control, not just the area they fully control right now.

DPR’s head Aleksandr Zakharchenko said that the rest of the region is regarded as “temporarily occupied” and will be liberated politically or militarily. Political way is preferable as it helps save human lives, but if politics does not succeed, “we’ve already drawn attention to our capability to solve issues militarily, and not once for that matter,” Zakharchenko said.

Germany, Russia send humanitarian aid to E.Ukraine

In the meantime two convoys with humanitarian aid from Russia are under customs clearance right now on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Once cleared, the white trucks of Russia’s Emergency Ministry will go on two routes: to Donetsk and to Lugansk, delivering food and medical supplies to citizens of the besieged cities.

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This woman worked her entire life, and then the west decided to share their 'values' with her #Donbass #Novorossiya

1:21 PM - 14 Feb 2015

Simultaneously with this, a shipment of 28 tons of medical supplies has arrived to Donets from Germany. The supplies were bought using donations collected in Germany by initiative of a group of German MPs and the shipment became the very first humanitarian aid delivered to Donbass from the EU.

The delivery was made through the Russian territory because Kiev failed to provide Berlin with transit authorization. Four trucks from Germany delivered medical supplies to Donetsk, Lugansk and Gorlovka.

From the Saker

After a bad start, ceasefire appears to be holding

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.nz/2015/02/after-bad-start-ceasefire-appears-to-be.html

It appears that after a bad start, the ceasefire is now more or less generally respected.  The intensity of the shooting has dramatically fallen and the front is generally quiet.  We shall see how long this will last.

The Saker

This report from the front line is fresh

Defense Ministry DNR: due to violation of the armistice Ukrainian army lost 9 tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles, 16 artillery systems, 7 cars and 111 men killed in a day (VIDEO)

Минобороны ДНР: из-за нарушения перемирия ВСУ потеряли за сутки 9 танков, 12 БМП, 16 артиллерийских систем, 7 автомобилей и 111 человек убитыми (ВИДЕО)

Via electronic translation

Russkaya Vesna,

15 February, 2015, 11.45 pm Moscow time

15 February, 2015 Loss of power structures of Ukraine as a result of clashes, just one day amounted to 9 tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles, 16 artillery systems, 7 cars, 111 people were killed, said the Ministry of Defense Corps Deputy Commander Edward Basurin DNR.

These data include the loss of the enemy before the entry of the ceasefire, as well as data obtained by our intelligence in steals in Debaltseve. During last night, and today the first in a long time the situation in the People's Republic of Donetsk remained relatively calm.

DNR army units, according to the agreements with Minsk from 00-00 hours Moscow time completely stopped fighting all along the line of contact with the enemy.

However, at night and in the morning from the disparate groups Ukrainian security officials recorded provocative conduct fire on our positions with small arms and mortars. In some cases, to prevent these provocations our troops were forced to open fire on a single precise suppression.

In general, with the order of the head of all army units DNR DNR refrain from retaliation and do not respond to minor provocation Ukrainian security officials.

Despite the steady silence in the area Debaltseve, the situation there continues to be challenging. The ceasefire came into effect immediately. Attacks of varying intensity of our positions primarily in Logvinova, both from the city and from Lugansk continue.

About 3 o'clock in the morning a large group of Ukrainian troops pulled back last night on the eastern outskirts Debaltseve tried to enter under cover of darkness to enter Chernukhin.

At the direction of the Donetsk Ukrainian security forces during the night were single firing mortars from residential areas of Donetsk - 4 shelling, its suburbs - 6 attacks, Donetsk airport - 18 attacks, as well as others of us. points.

Mariupol on the direction of the national militia units were local defensive battles, preventing the movement of the enemy.

We urge Kiev to comply strictly with the Minsk agreement on a complete ceasefire.

The Ukrainian side is preparing provocations against the DNI. In some localities, controlled by the APU, it has been observed a large number of journalists Ukrainian media, which according to our information, they want to "fix" what we did. Therefore, we warn about this immediately and will be ready for it.

The cease-fire has begun

http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/119592.html

By noon it is possible to state confidently that the cease-fire is mostly being observed and that the intensity of military action on the majority of locations has decreased effectively down to zero.

Nevertheless, sporadic small-arms firefights continued on a number of locations during the night and the use of artillery was noted in the area of Debalcevo, which is not surprising considering the indeterminate status of the Debalcevo cauldron, the presence of which the junta continues to den.

During the night Yarosh's announcement of some "Right Sector" battalions advancing somewhere  suddenly appeared and then just as suddenly disappeared. There were also mutual accusations of the sides of the opposing side shelling something, but on the background of the silent front these accusations didn't look too convincing, so it is quite logical that by the morning we observed effectively a cease-fire in Donbass, although certainly there are periodic firefights for now.

How long the truce and the associated operational pause will last isn't clear yet, but if the sides will hold their fire until tomorrow, then it will be possible to summarize the results of the January NAF offensive. The question of Debalcevo, being unresolved during the January offensive, moves to the next phase of the war and so a powerful political and informational background will grow around this crucial transport hub in addition to its military significance.

Foreign policy evaluations of the events will follow today/tomorrow (some already put the cart before the horse and yell that Merkel needs to be given a Nobel peace prize). Also in the coming days it is worth expecting various provocations and also the regular accusations against Russia of disrupting the peace process.


Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2050491.html (in Russian)

Yesterday's "ceasefire" - Ukraine update -09/03/2014

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A ceasefire...then no-ceasfire...complete confusion surrounding a peace plan in the Ukraine crisis. In the NOW we set the record straight

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THE UKRAINE- ENTERING THE END GAME

Alexander Mercouris

Via Facebook

We have had an extraordinary succession of diplomatic move and counter move over the last two days.

1. Yesterday was the false announcement by Russian media agencies of supposed proposals by the NAF that would have allowed the DPR/LPR to remain if only nominally part of the Ukraine.

2. This morning we had the equally false announcement by Poroshenko's Secretariat that he had agreed a ceasefire with Putin.

3. This afternoon the Kremlin published its plan for a ceasefire. Whilst this purports to be limited to its technical aspects in reality it effectively gives the DPR/LPR what they have demanded all along and since before the ATO was launched, which is the removal of all Ukrainian forces from their territory. The Kremlin's ceasefire proposal throws in a no fly zone for good measure.

This flurry of announcements suggests moves in an end game, which is what I think we are looking at. So what is going on?

First of all it bears reiteration that none of this would be happening were it not for

1. The NAF's battlefield victories and the not so slow motion collapse of the Ukrainian army. Lugansk and Donetsk airports have now definitely fallen. The very latest reports suggest that Mariupol is totally surrounded and that Kiev has only the remnant of right wing militia battalions there and that it is likely to fall or be liberated by the NAF very soon. There are reports of more and more Ukrainian soldiers surrendering or deserting and the hoard of captured weapons in the NAF's hands is growing to prodigious levels. As the junta's military gets weaker the NAF grows stronger. Though Putin has said (echoing comments made a week ago by Zakharchenko - see below my discussion of his press conference on this Page) that the NAF has no plan to advance beyond the boundaries of the DPR/LPR, the main force of the Ukrainian army is now actually concentrated on the territory of the DPR/LPR. If the Ukrainian army disintegrates, which is now looking distinctly possible, it is not clear what organised military force the junta has left to bar an NAF advance on Kharkov, Odessa or even Kiev.

2. As I explained a few days ago (see below on this Page) the true story of the recent EU summit is that for all the talk of sanctions the US/EU has emphatically ruled out the one thing that might at the risk of a very dangerous escalation have made a difference to this situation. This was the possibility of western military intervention in the conflict to bail the junta out. Please note that by "western military intervention" I mean boots on the ground and air strikes. As Mark Sleboda has absolutely correctly pointed out talk of weapons being supplied to the junta is a red herring. The reality is the junta has been getting weapons for weeks from old Soviet stocks in eastern Europe and has never been short of weapons to fight this war.

Given the military disaster Poroshenko, the junta and their western sponsors have no realistic option other than to look for a diplomatic way out. As I said a few days ago (see below on this Page) that was what all the talk at the EU summit of the need for ceasefires and of "the situation being close to the point of no return" was all about. With the economy in freefall and the army disintegrating further prolongation of the war risks the junta's and the Ukraine's collapse (about this however see below).

Ending the war for the junta is however something a lot easier said than done. Having promised victory and having spurned three opportunities for a political settlement and a ceasefire (on 21st February 2014, 17th April 2014 and 2nd July 2014) the junta and its western backers now face the critical problem of how they are going to sell news of their ending of the war in conditions of total defeat to the Maidan movement and to the Ukrainian people as a whole.

The way they are trying to do this and to square this circle is as follows:

1. Firstly, they are trying to preserve the fiction that their war is with Russia rather than with the people of the Donbas and the NAF. It is far easier to admit defeat at the hands of Russia than at what began as a lightly armed self defence force just 4 months ago; and

2. Secondly by trying to achieve through diplomacy a peace settlement that preserves the appearance of Ukrainian sovereignty over the Donbas thereby letting the junta claim that the integrity of the Ukrainian state has been preserved.

If one understands this then the strange diplomatic moves we have seen over the last two days begin to make sense.

The reason Poroshenko said falsely that he had agreed a ceasefire with Putin is because (1) he needs a ceasefire in order to avoid a total disaster and (2) he cannot declare a ceasefire unilaterally since that would too obviously be a surrender and (3) he does not want to agree a ceasefire with the NAF since that would demolish his claim that his war is not with the NAF but with Russia.

The strange attempt yesterday to pretend that the NAF is merely seeking autonomy within a confederated Ukraine when the NAF leadership has repeatedly made clear over the last few weeks that it is seeking full independence from the Ukraine was clearly intended by someone to help Kiev save face by pretending that some sort of deal is possible that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty over the Donbas. That these reports came from Russian news agencies suggests

(1) that there is a faction within the Russian government or Russia's political elite that still wants that solution presumably in order to limit the damage to Russia's relations with the west; or

(2) that there is still a body of opinion within the elite of the Donbas itself (possibly led by Rinat Akhmetov) that also still wants to maintain a link, however tenuous, to Kiev and which also is trying to help the junta save face and which still has some influence within the Donbas leadership or at any rate the NAF's negotiating team; or

(4) that these reports originated with the Lukashenko government which is hosting the talks in Minsk and which for various reasons also wants to help the junta save face whilst preserving at least the appearance of a united Ukraine.

Of course these three possibilities are not mutually exclusive and it is possible and even likely that all are true.

However the important point is that Putin is having none of it. He has made it absolutely clear over the course of the day that he did not agree a ceasefire with Poroshenko and that if Poroshenko does genuinely want a ceasefire he must agree it not with Russia but with the NAF. By publishing his ceasefire proposals Putin has also made clear that he supports the NAF's demand for a total withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbas as a condition for a ceasefire. Indirectly, by limiting himself to technical discussions about a ceasefire, Putin has also made clear that he and Russia are not prepared to get involved in political discussions about the Donbas's future and that as he previously said in Minsk this is something that will have to be negotiated directly with the NAF instead. Those who expect Putin to put pressure on the NAF to accept something less than full independence are on the evidence of the last few weeks likely to be disappointed.

In other words Putin is denying Poroshenko any hope of saving face by stripping him of even the appearance of wriggle room. That explains the dismayed reaction in Kiev to today's developments with all the wild talk from Yatsenyuk & co of "frozen conflicts" that we have been hearing over the course of the day. It also explains the desperate attempt to put pressure on Putin by Poroshenko's western backers by suspending completion of the Mistral sale.

What happens next? I do not expect Putin to retreat from the line he is now publicly taking whatever Poroshenko or the west may want and whatever further sanctions the EU announces on Friday. Certainly suspension of the Mistral sale will not impress him. It seems to me that there are now two possibilities:

(1) There will be no formal ceasefire agreement of any kind, the Ukrainian military collapse will continue and the NAF will drive the Ukrainians out of the Donbas by itself. At that point the fighting will finally stop; or

(2) The junta will accept Putin's ceasefire proposals and will start negotiations with the NAF.

Politically it is much easier for the junta to do (1). However the consequences of that course should be clear. In the absence of a formal ceasefire agreement the Ukraine faces the almost certain prospect of a continued cut off of Russian gas at a time when it has also lost access to its coalfields in the Donbas and has no realistic alternative sources of energy and no foreign exchange to buy it in any event. Gazprom has again made clear today (and the timing is surely not an accident) that it is not prepared to consider the "compromise proposals" made by the European Commission. it insists on full payment of all gas arrears and has said that it will not in any event go below the price it previously offered, which is $385.

In the absence of a diplomatic settlement the Ukraine therefore faces likely economic collapse possibly within a matter of weeks or at the most months.

Any realistic assessment of the situation therefore points to (2) as the only viable way forward. A grasp of reality is however something the Maidan movement has at all times been short of. Because of the nature of the regime in Kiev and of the Maidan movement I expect the junta if left to itself to opt for (1). The only way that might change would be if the Europeans finally screwed up the will and courage to do that which they have up to now consistently failed to do, which is put pressure on Kiev to agree to (2). As I see little prospect of that, I expect (1).

Looking further forward what is the future of the Ukraine and of the DPR/LPR?

Though it may take time for reality to sink in, the disaster in the east, the loss of the Donbas and the gathering economic crisis will be a shattering blow to the Maidan movement. Not only has it been defeated on the battlefield but it must also face the reality that (as with Georgia in 2008) its western "friends" for all their brave talk in the final analysis have abandoned it. It must also face the return of tens of thousands of traumatised and embittered young men who have experienced the humiliation of defeat. As was the case with Saakashvili, though to a much greater extent, politically speaking it will be downhill for the Maidan movement from now on. I do not know how long the process will take but its eventual collapse is likely only a matter of time.

Beyond that my belief remains that if the Donbas manages to secede in time Kharkov, Odessa, Kherson and the rest of Novorossia will follow. If there is an economic collapse in the next few weeks or months as I expect that may happen sooner rather than later. As for what would happen to whatever rump Ukraine was left, shorn of the Donbas and possibly of its remaining eastern provinces and facing economic disaster, its prospects are bleak. Certainly its chances of joining NATO or the EU any time soon are I would say nil. Trapped in political limbo, there is a chance that in time more rational political forces may emerge that will seek some sort of rapprochement with Russia. How long that will take I do not know.

As for the DPR/LPR, they will surely become de facto part of Russia with which they will quickly integrate economically (eg. by adopting the rouble) even if for a time they remain nominally independent of it.