Poroshenko's
Emergency Return to Kiev
Military
defeats force Poroshenko to leave Davos ahead of schedule.
By
Petr Likhomankov
21
January, 2015
Translated
from Russian by J.Hawk
Poroshenko
hastily ended his three-day visit to Switzerland and returned to
Ukraine on the day Davos forum opened. Ukraine’s leader hoped for
political and economic successes, but received only frustration.
The
failed Ukrainian offensive against Donetsk and the barbaric Ukrainian
methods that had become obvious even to Europeans who used to
sympathize with Ukraine, made Poroshenko’s meeting with the
financial and political elite of Europe and the world senseless.
Poroshenko’s
misfortunes had begun as soon as he arrived in Zurich, where he was
met by a large anti-war demonstration, and his lecture about peace in
the entire world was interrupted by a local student who asked the
audience not to listen to “a child killer”. Shortly after that
the Ukrainian president launched a few disconnected tirades in
Twitter and declared himself the President of peace.
His
social network statements which sounded like self-justification,
reflected Poroshenko’s objectives in Davos. Poroshenko had hoped to
give emotional speeches about a bus “shot to pieces by terrorists”
at Volnovakha, his “peace plan” that had been gathering dust for
half a year, and attempts at reforms. Then he’d ask for financial
and political assistance. While Poroshenko was begging for money in
Switzerland, it was assumed that his generals will continue shelling
Donetsk and Gorlovka and force the militia to retreat. Then after his
triumphant return from Switzerland Poroshenko would have been able to
announce on Twitter than the situation is radically different, and
the representatives of DPR and LPR can no longer be considered
participants of the trilateral contact group. That would have
rendered the Minsk Agreements irrelevant, which would mean their
rewriting on Ukraine’s terms.
It
was a painful blow to Kiev to hear the information revealed by DPR
Prime Minister Zakharchenko concerning Ukrainian army casualties.
Only during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday it lost 40 killed, or
ten times more than the “standard” casualty reports provided by
CTO press service. The tales told by captured “cyborgs” about how
their command sent them to slaughter caused a painful bursting of the
bubble in which many war-minded Ukrainians lived, judging by their
emotional reactions in social networks.
“Glamorous
patriotism, inappropriate military shows and parades, victory
propaganda allow fools to act foolishly, and high-ranking criminals
to commit crimes. The parades and shows have come to an end, ladies
and gentlemen. The recent events at the front show that we don’t
even have adequate tactical reserves to localize the actions of the
adversary,” is how the the situation was summed up a well-known
Ukrainian volunteer Yuriy Kasyanov, whom nobody would suspect of
militia sympathies.
The
ever-more evident loss of trust toward official media information
threatens the partial mobilization which Poroshenko “blessed”
with his signature before departing for Switzerland. Even Western
Ukrainian media cannot conceal the fact that military-age men are
hurriedly leaving the country, with many fleeing not to Poland but to
Russia: the tickets for the “Lvov-Moscow” train have been sold
out month in advance.
The
world opinion concerning the “counter-terrorist operation” is
also changing: when Poroshenko was in Zurich, an authoritative German
TV channel ZDF showed a report in which the Ukrainian army was
accused of killing civilians. The same conclusions were drawn by the
US Associated Press agency.
Poroshenko
no longer has the ear of Kiev “hawks.” During his absence Rada
Deputy Sergey Pashinskiy said that the government is prepared to
introduce martial law in the country. That would mean Ukrainians
could no longer leave the country, Poroshenko’s concept of a local
“counter-terror operation” would collapse, and international
financiers would cease negotiations with Ukraine. Due to all that,
Poroshenko’s further stay in Davos made no sense. And now, having
returned to Kiev, Poroshenko will have to put together a new “peace
plan”, in order not to lose the entire country along with his
presidential baton.
Translator’s
Note: The psychological impact of the loss of the
Donetsk Airport by the “cyborgs” cannot be overestimated. It was
a high-prestige geographical location on which the Ukrainian military
(and, by extension, the civilian leadership) had staked their
reputations. DPR’s victory in that battle therefore had not only
military but, especially, psychological importance as it revealed
that the Ukrainian emperor has no clothes. Given that the Ukrainian
military had launched only relatively feeble counterattacks that
failed to retake even one of several localities and outposts taken by
DPR and LPR forces, it suggests that the Ukrainian front line is
holding only barely, and might collapse in the event of a concerted
Novorossia push. It is also evident that Poroshenko cannot count on
even a symbolic show of Western support. Even the usually reliable
and Photoshop-savvy US State Department can't force itself to confirm
yet another round of Ukrainian claims of a Russian invasion. One is
left with an impression that many in the West are quietly hoping that
the whole Ukraine mess would just quietly go away, even if it means
Russia picks up the pieces and with them the cost of Europe's and
America's international adventuring.
Tsarev:
Poroshenko will be overthrown in February
Oleg
Tsarev predicts the approximate date of Poroshenko’s overthrow at
the behest of the United States.
By
Ivan Volkov
Translated
from Russian by J.Hawk
Arseniy
Yatsenyuk already gave orders to conduct an information campaign
against the Ukrainian president. Arsen Avakov is collecting
compromising information on Poroshenko. A Ridus Exclusive.
Chairman
of Novorossia Parliament Oleg Tsarev gave an exclusive interview to
Ridus. He said why the Kiev US embassy puppetmasters, together with
Turchinov, Yatsenyuk, and the odious oligarch Kolomoysky who is
always chasing dollars, want to see Poroshenko overthrown with every
fiber of their beings.
Oleg
Anatolyevich, you said that the overseas patrons of Poroshenko are
preparing his overthrow. How did he fail to satisfy the US president?
There
are three groups working on Ukraine in the US embassy. And even
though they are competing for influence over policy, just as local
elites compete for US approval, they are in agreement that Poroshenko
needs to be replaced.
First
of all, he has good relations with the Russian ambassador Zurabov and
a profitable business in Lipetsk. There are also other factors which
I don’t wish to describe so as not to complicate the situation
further.
Secondly,
Poroshenko is more likely to conclude peace with the Donbass, while
the US needs a war. Not because his conscience is bothering due to
the innocently murdered children. Poroshenko understands that in
peacetime he will have more power. Then he would become the second
most important political figure in Ukraine. While the top of the
podium is occupied by the US ambassador.
During
the time of military operations MVD head Avakov has an advantage, and
Avakov is a protégé of Turchinov and Yatsenyuk, who are
Poroshenko’s competitors. Then there’s Kolomoysky, who has formed
an entire army in the east of the country out of criminal elements,
which does not take Kiev’s orders. Poroshenko can deal with his
competition only in peacetime.
Question:
What are the disagreements between Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk,
Turchinov, Kolomoysky?
Poroshenko
has been in conflict with Yatsenyuk and Turchinov since Yatsenyuk
became prime minister. Yatsenyuk began to earn a lot of money off
that job and did not want to share with anyone.
Poroshenko
understands that one of them (Yatsenyuk or Turchinov) can occupy the
president’s seat. He did everything to exclude Yatsenyuk from the
political team. But VP Biden flew in and insisted on a big coalition.
Games continued up to then. On the one hand Yatsenyuk wanted a
coalition without Poroshenko, on the other, Poroshenko wanted a
coalition without Yatsenyuk.
Kolomoysky
needs resources to improve his business, which is in a difficult
situation. But Poroshenko did not give him refinancing. He received
refinancing only once, after he established his assets in the Crimea.
Then he threw means his assets onto the currency market, leading to a
jump in national currency.
Incidentally,
at the moment the hryvnya exchange rate is holding on only because
all exchange points have been closed. There is an exchange rate, but
dollars can be bought only from “bosses.” The actual exchange
rate is 30-40% higher than the state acknowledges.
Kolomoysky
desperately needs money and is not getting them. That’s why the
conflict with Poroshenko. And, believe me, I know Kolomoysky well. If
he thought such conflict were impossible, he would not have entered
into it. Kolomoysky considers Poroshenko a very weak figure.
And
that’s all there’s to it. Poroshenko has nobody to rely on.
Americans don’t like him, and neither does the internal
competition. So the president is in a critical position. The stakes
are very high. His competitors want to carry out another armed
overthrow, and might simply kill Poroshenko. So for him what’s at
stake is not even money, but life.
Question:
How are Poroshenko’s opponents preparing?
Arseniy
Yatsenyuk already held a closed meeting with Avakov and a few
deputies. Yatsenyuk tasked them with organizing an information
campaign against Poroshenko. He must be made appear guilty for the
economic catastrophe. What’s more, they’ll blame Poroshenko for
the course of the hryvnya, the failure of the military operation on
the Donbass, and also appointing foreigners to ministerial posts.
Avakov
reassured everyone that he will share with the media participating in
the attack information from wiretaps on Poroshenko and from collected
secret information.
Question:
There is a version in the internet that at some point Ukraine will
suffer an economic collapse, and the current Kiev regime will simply
dissolve. How would you comment that?
Things
don’t happen all by themselves. There is no reason for optimism.
The US has many scenarios. First of all, they have created a whole
slew of loyal politicians. Once the pro-US Poroshenko leaves, he’ll
be replaced by the pro-US Turchinov or Yatsenyuk. Then the mayor of
Lvov Sadovy or someone else. They are all pro-US. There are no
non-pro-US politicians capable of coming to power. The bench is well
protected and will implement the will of the US.
During
the Vietnam War, the pro-US authorities of that country changed many
times. But the war continued. Every new leader shifted responsibility
for earlier failures to the earlier one, and the cycle continued
without pause. The war stopped only when the communist North won it.
Neither the political situation nor the military nor economic
influenced it.
Question:
Are there also several scenarios for the Donbass?
Absolutely.
The first scenario is the military confrontation, which is showing
its flaws. But the Ukrainian authorities believed they had enough
military power to overcome LPR/DPR resistance. They considered two
variants: a complete elimination of us—the separatists or, if the
worst comes to worst, take three quarters of Donetsk and isolate LPR
and DPR from one another. But it didn’t work out like that.
Novorossia
armed forces offered resistance and are now storming Avdeevka and
Peski in order to stop the shelling of Donetsk. The Ukrainian army is
panicking. The road from Donetsk to Kiev is full of vehicles,
nationalists are fleeing with their loot. Something similar is taking
place in Mariupol.
The
second scenario is the economic isolation of the Donbass. LPR and DPR
cannot run their economy without support. Russia will be forced to
help. Then it faces a choice. If they help, Russia will be punished
for military assistance, if no, they’ll punish for economic
support.
Right
now none of the Ukrainian politicians are speaking of peace and
restoring neighborly relations with Russia. They understand that the
US will control the situation for some time to come and therefore are
using the anti-Russian slogans just to survive. However, some of my
fellow deputies are taking their families out of Kiev abroad or to
other cities because they don’t want to suffer from the vacuum of
power that will occur in the event of a coup.
Question:
so the Ukrainian tragedy will continue to make headlines for a long
time?
If
nobody shows interest in Ukraine, for a very long time. Russia has
not interfered in Ukrainian politics for over 20 years. Americans and
Europeans entirely freely worked in the country. They spent billions
of dollars. They created 5 thousand of NGOs, 150 thousand workers
received their salaries. That’s an entire army that obeyed orders
and created the Maidan when it was needed.
Russia
was working with individual members of the elite, not paying
attention to the public opinion. And those representatives did not
always discharge their responsibilities due to their personal
mentality. That was a big mistake.
Also,
when CIS was formed, Russia undertook not to work on the territory of
adjacent states. It meant that Russia for a long time had no ability
to influence CIS countries’ public opinion.
Therefore
right now we must not let the situation resove itself. The fascist
regimes in Latin America survived for decades with US support.
Political opponents were eliminated, death squads were at work, the
masses suffered in poverty, the economy was destroyed, but nobody
could do anything.
Question:
So they’ll overthrow Poroshenko, but the peaceful citizenry will
continue to die…Minsk Agreements are not being implemented, the
“Normandy Four” meeting was cancelled…
Right
now Russia is trying to establish some sort of a relationship with
Poroshenko. But if he is overthrown, it will be an entirely different
country.
Even
greater Russophobes will come to power, hard-core US puppets who have
no ties to Russia.
Poroshenko
spoke about his presidency already three years before coming to
power. He came to Moscow, met with influential people. Poroshenko, as
you may remember, was a minister of foreign affairs, he has excellent
contacts.
I
know that the overthrow is planned for the anniversary of the Maidan.
On February 15 there will be a national assembly in Kiev. And it’s
entirely possible that about 8pm it will transform into an armed
assault on the president’s administration, as it did when
Yanukovych was president.
Poroshenko
understands the risks perfectly well. He already created a working
group to prevent a coup. Its members are highly placed “power
ministry” officials and those members of the administration who
oversee the power structures.
Translator’s
Note: Tsarev’s understanding of the internal
Ukrainian politics is certainly second to none. I would take issue
with his characterization of the level of US interest and
involvement. Clearly, the US government tried to score a cheap
geopolitical victory by pulling Ukraine into its orbit. But neither
the US nor the EU are showing any interest of paying the cost of
maintaining the current regime in power, which is a major difference
between the current US approach and the policies adopted during the
Cold War, when the USG spent billions of dollars on its fascist
puppets. Poroshenko is likely to be overthrown due to lack
of US support rather than a US plot. Moreover, one has to keep in
mind that should Poroshenko be overthrown, it will be difficult for
the US to justify subsidizing yet another Ukrainian government that
came into power through violence. There are no indications the US is
planning to open the spigots once Poroshenko leaves, and there is no
anti-Poroshenko campaign in the Western media, which would be a sure
sign of an impending overthrow. The people who are likely to be doing
the overthrowing, the Right Sector et al., do not follow orders from
the US or anywhere else—they are merely reacting to the weakness of
the current system, including not only Poroshenko but also Yatsenyuk,
Turchinov, and everyone else, who are as vulnerable as Poroshenko, if
only because it’s Yatsenyuk whose face is associated with the
“shock therapy”, not Poroshenko.
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