A spontaneous evacuation of civilians has begun in Stepanakert, a city in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. This is reported by the newspaper "Izvestia» with a link to its correspondent from the scene of events.
It is noted that people are being sent EN masse to the Armenian capital, Yerevan.
"They send them away just like that, they don't know any relatives there, but they say that they will be met there without fail. The authorities in Yerevan will organize it," the statement reads.
Some people are helped to leave by the police, stop hitchhikers and ask drivers to take strangers out of the city.
Political analysts named
Turkey's interests in the
Karabakh conflict
"For Ankara, the events in Nagorno-Karabakh are a window of opportunity to increase its own influence in the Caucasus»
Политологи назвали интересы Турции в
карабахском конфликте
https://www.mk.ru/politics/2020/09/29/politologi-nazvali-interesy-turcii-v-karabakhskom-konflikte.html
September 27 Ministry of defense Azerbaijan has announced that it is launching a "counter-offensive operation" in response to the actions of the Armenian armed forces, which "shelled settlements on the line of contact in Karabakh."
At a time of escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Turkish authorities continue to make more and more resolute statements in support of Azerbaijan. Thus, Turkish foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Ankara is ready to support Baku "both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield." Experts assessed the possibility of Turkey's military intervention in the Karabakh conflict and told what strategic goals the country's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursues.
"For Ankara, the events in Nagorno-Karabakh are a window of opportunity to increase its own influence in the Caucasus»
Turkey views Azerbaijan as a "fraternal country" with common cultural, linguistic and ethnic roots. The two countries also have close trade ties, especially in the energy sector.
"It is a great strategic interest of Turkey, as well as any powerful regional player, to increase its geopolitical influence in neighboring regions, including those that are ethnically and culturally close," comments Dmitry Yegorchenkov, Director of the Institute for strategic studies and forecasts at the RUDN University. – Such an old, actually pan-Turkist idea, which was repeatedly expressed by both Mr. Erdogan and various representatives of his administration, has not disappeared from the political discourse of the country. We understand this very well, analyzing the Turkish official press.
Moreover, for Erdogan, the conflict that we are witnessing today is a window of opportunity for increasing his own influence in the Caucasus and promoting this pan-Turkist trend in his policy."
At the same time, according to the expert, open military intervention in the Karabakh conflict is not entirely in Turkey's interests. It can seriously affect the country's economy, in particular, the exchange rate of the national currency.
"However, this does not mean that Ankara will not use the well – known tools of hybrid intervention in one form or another, direct or explicit support for Azerbaijan through the media and through various informal non-state structures," Dmitry Yegorchenkov notes. – This strategy will be more natural for Turkey in this sense."
Despite the harsh rhetoric of President Erdogan, who does not hide that he took the side of Azerbaijan in this conflict, Turkey, nevertheless, will not cross the red line, according to Elena Suponina, adviser to the Director of the Russian Institute for strategic studies (RISS).
"These lines are drawn by the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, and many members of this organization would not like to see the conflict in Karabakh escalate further," the expert continues. "Therefore, Ankara will have to look around at the positions of its colleagues in the Alliance."
On the other hand, Turkey is well aware that it can hurt Russia's interests in the region, Elena Suponina believes. Meanwhile, the country has an urgent need to maintain cooperation between Ankara and Moscow, which, despite some differences in the recent past, has nevertheless been well established on Syria, Libya and other issues. So on Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey will still have to look back at others and this, of course, will deter President Erdogan.
As Alexey Makarkin, first Vice-President Of the center for political technologies, Professor at the Higher school of Economics, previously told MK, Erdogan's policy is aimed at strengthening Turkey's position in the Islamic world: "We see this policy already in several countries. In Syria, however, we are talking not only about creating a security zone against the Kurds, but also about the fact that Turkey supports some of the local Islamists there.
If we look at Libya, Ankara supports the Sarraj government in Tripoli against the government that relies on field Marshal Haftar's military. Turkey has played a key role in helping the government in Tripoli remove an immediate threat to its capital. Without Erdogan, it would have been impossible to change the military and political situation there.
And now Erdogan is extending his hand to Azerbaijan – there are also historical relations there, Dating back to 1918, when independent Azerbaijan appeared with Turkish support. By the way, at that time the British tried to counteract the offensive of Turkish troops on Baku, but it was unsuccessful. However, then after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the Turks still had to leave.
So historical analogies work here. Erdogan emphasizes that he is the heir to the tradition of the Ottoman Empire (whose Sultan was not only a secular ruler, but also a Caliph), and tries to distance himself from the legacy of Ataturk, although he does not completely succeed."
At the same time, according to Makarkin, an open military intervention does not look real. Moreover, there is a very strong opposition in Turkey, which will definitely oppose the country's direct intervention in the Karabakh conflict.
"The opposition won the mayoral elections in Ankara and Istanbul," the expert added. " it Often seems that Erdogan is the dominant figure in the country. However, this is not entirely true. The Turkish leader is voted for in villages and small towns, where the position of the local clergy often plays a key role. Moreover, Erdogan is quite a cautious politician. Rather, it follows a strategy of indirect actions - that is, more cautious and flexible. For example, in the same Syria, he is at war with Assad, with the Kurds, but at the same time he is negotiating with Moscow on the division of spheres of interest."
Many Western powers are also monitoring the situation in Karabakh with great concern. According to Alexey Makarkin, we should not forget that there are large Armenian diasporas in some of them, which also influence political decision - making.
"The United States will soon hold presidential elections, every vote counts," the expert said. "And Trump also doesn't really want to lose the votes of representatives of the influential Armenian community."
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