Ukraine's
government has lost control of east, says acting president
Oleksandr
Turchynov says security forces are unable to control situation in
Donetsk and Luhansk regions
30
April, 2014
Ukraine's
acting president has admitted his government has practically lost
control of the east of the country, with his security forces
"helpless" to stop a rolling takeover by pro-Russia gunmen.
Oleksandr
Turchynov said numerous Ukrainian military and security personnel had
defected to the rebels, taking their arms with them. Using the
language of defeat, he told a meeting of regional governors: "I
will be frank. Today, security forces are unable to take the
situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions quickly under control."
His
comments came after anti-Kiev militants seized a string of official
buildings in the eastern city of Luhansk on Tuesday. Only the city's
police station remained under nominal central command.
Standing
outside Luhansk's police headquarters on Wednesday, Tatiana Pogukay
was close to tears. "We are still here. We didn't surrender. But
Kiev betrayed us," she said. Her emotion was understandable. The
previous night she and her colleagues had fended off an armed attack
by 50 pro-Russia separatists. The gunmen in fatigues attempted to
storm the building. One fired warning shots in the air; some scaled
the roof; others rammed the rear entrance with a Kamaz truck.
The
officers inside managed to stand their ground. They tossed smoke and
stun grenades at their assailants from upper-floor windows. A
frightened group of conscripts was allowed to leave. Eventually the
separatists called it a night – with the police still in control of
their four-storey regional HQ, at least for now. "We didn't give
up our weapons. We defended this place with honour," Pogukay, a
police colonel, said.
A A woman gives food to an armed man in front of the occupied regional
administration building in Luhansk. Photograph: Zurab Kurtsikidze/EPA
Despite
some heroic resistance, the reality is this: most of east Ukraine is
now a separatist fiefdom. The balance of power is tipping. It is
moving inexorably away from the beleaguered government in Kiev, and
towards militants supported by Moscow who are on the brink of
declaring their own autonomous state.
With
its Khrushchev-era apartment blocks and neo-classical Stalinist
buildings, Luhansk – population 445,000 – already looks like
Russia. The Russian border is 20 miles (35km) away. In a matter of
weeks Luhansk will either be Russia, or a political entity allied
with it.
On
Wednesday the city's volunteer-soldiers were taking it easy after a
remarkable 24 hours in which they seized municipal power. In early
April a militia led by Soviet Afghan war veterans occupied Luhansk's
security service agency HQ, in the centre of town. They helped
themselves to its formidable arsenal: shiny new Kalashnikovs,
pistols, grenades, and rocket launchers. Last week a new
Moscow-approved "people's governor", Valery Bolotov,
appeared. Bolotov sent Kiev a list of "demands". He set a
deadline, which expired on Monday.
After
failing to get a reply, the rebels carried out an effortless coup a
day later. First, a 3,000-strong crowd encircled Luhansk's regional
administration building, which overlooks a pleasant park and a statue
of the moustached poet Taras Shevchenko. A couple of youths in masks
smashed in the windows with crowbars; then the masses poured in. Riot
police trapped in a courtyard did nothing. Miserable and humiliated,
they eventually left.
On
Wednesday masked armed volunteers were standing guard outside their
new HQ; sandbags had been piled up before ground-floor windows; a
nascent tyre-wall was taking shape on the pavement. One militiaman,
Alexander, was happy to chat. He said despite the change in
management it was business as usual, with council staff working as
before. "Our job is to check IDs," he said. A wellwisher
gave him a carton of Bond Street cigarettes. Nearby, a group of women
were discussing the dramatic events of the previous day.
One
old lady in a headscarf seemed confused by this rapid transfer of
control. She asked Alexander if he had come from the Maidan, Kiev's
pro-western protest movement?
"We're
against fascism," Alexander answered.
She
remained confused. Another woman intervened helpfully and said:
"Don't worry, dear. Everything will be like in the Soviet Union
again. We will have our Victory Day on 9 May. It will all be OK."
The
old woman's face brightened. She grasped Alexander by the hand, and
before walking down the street told him: "History will remember
you."
Alexander,
his face hidden by a balaclava, declined to give his surname. But he
said he was a 39-year-old miner with a family. A "referendum"
on Luhansk's future status would take place on 11 May, he explained.
After that, he said, the region would probably join Russia, though he
wasn't certain. Why had he joined "Luhansk's people's militia"?
"There's been a fascist takeover in Kiev," he replied. He
added: "Victory Day is sacred for us. I've heard the Kiev
government wants to replace it with a gay pride parade."
The
insurgents now occupy practically all of Luhansk's official
buildings. Armed men on Wednesday patrolled outside Luhansk's city
hall, also taken on Tuesday; one had a Kalashnikov with its grip
decorated in Russian red, white and blue. Others peered out from
inside the procurator's office down the road; they emerged to sweep
away broken glass from their break-in the night before. A new Russian
tricolour flew above the regional appellate court. The militia also
dropped into the TV station for a chat.
In
other parts of the east it was the same story. In the town of
Gorlovka, 20 miles from the regional capital of Donetsk, militants
hijacked the city hall early on Wednesday, as well as a second police
station. In Donetsk others grabbed the tax and customs office. Each
occupation follows the same revolutionary template: gunmen, who do
the heavy lifting; takeover; tyre barricades; call for a referendum.
Ukraine still has tanks and troops in pockets in the east. But the
reality is that Kiev's authority has vanished, probably forever.
Instead
of trying to wrest back control of Luhansk and Donetsk, Turchynov
said on Wednesday his forces would concentrate on defending the
provinces of Kharkiv, in the east, and Odessa, in the west. This will
be difficult. The Kremlin's plan appears to be to resurrect the
historic region of "New Russia", a large Russophone chunk
of southern and eastern Ukraine.
At
Luhansk's police station, meanwhile, Pogukay said she was incensed
with Turchynov after he called the east's law enforcement officers
"traitors". "First Viktor Yanukovych [Ukraine's
ex-president] betrayed us. Now Turchynov betrayed us," she said,
her voice shaking with feeling. "This is on his conscience."
On Tuesday, just before the militia tried to seize the station, the
regional police chief, Vladimir Guslavsky, faxed his resignation to
Kiev, she said. He didn't get a reply. "He's a man of honour.
He's staying in his post until they send a replacement," she
said.
During
the raid the insurgents managed to claw off half of a Ukrainian
trident sign on the station's front wall. They also raised a Russian
flag on a low overhanging roof; someone took it down again later. In
anticipation of further attack, the police had sandbagged the
entrance and ground-floor windows. Pot plants were visible in several
upper windows; the lights were on. Ukraine's deputy interior minister
had phoned up to offer his support, Pogukay said. But no one else
from Kiev had bothered to pick up the phone. Surely the situation was
now hopeless for the police? "We're not traitors like Turchynov
said," she replied. "We'll fight to our last breath."
How
the Russian
economy has taken a turn
for the worse
Russia
has five big economic problems ranging from the fallout from the
Ukraine crisis to a sharp fall in the rouble
30
April, 2014
Russia's
economy was struggling even before the crisis in Ukraine, but things
have now taken a turn for the worse, according to the International
Monetary Fund. GDP fell in the first three months of 2014 and will
fall again in the second quarter. According to the technical
definition, that would amount to a recession.
The
news will come as little surprise to the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development, which counts Russia as its biggest
client. The EBRD believes there will be little or no growth this
year even assuming there is no further escalation in the crisis.
Russia
has five big problems. The first is that its manufacturing sector is
uncompetitive after being starved of investment. The second is that
the lack of a thriving industrial base has made the economy even
more dependent on its oil and gas sector. The third is that a
combination of a struggling economy, the Ukraine crisis and endemic
corruption has led to capital flight. Goldman Sachs has estimated
that up to $50bn (£30bn) has left Russia since the start of 2014
and that the full year figure could be as high as $130bn.
The
fourth problem is that, with cash leaving the country and little or
no investment coming in, the value of the rouble has fallen sharply.
That has forced the central bank to push up interest rates, further
depressing growth. Finally, there's the threat of sanctions. These
are not having a direct impact but the threat of tougher action to
come is weighing down on confidence.
Analysts
at Capital Economics say that a worsening of the crisis could lead
to the Russian economy contracting by 5% in 2014.
The
IMF and the EBRD hope that the fragile state of the Russian economy
will make Vladimir Putin wary about ratcheting up the tension.
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