An Arctic sea ice update - 16 October, 2018

A report from the Arctic as the sun sets over the North Pole - 16 October, 2018

Until Margo is able to do another of her updates on the Arctic ice I am going share what I can see with my own eyes by looking at the same set of data I look at every time.

I have tried, this year to avoid reactions like "there is going to be a blue sea event", or "No there's not. We have bought ourselves another year".

The first thing that stands out is that the sea ice extent has not changed that very much since the official end of the melt season almost a month ago.

In this short video I pick up on some features that stand out for me from looking at today's images on NASA Worldview.

As can be seen clearly here temperatures are much, much warmer than the historical average.

Looking at the data from NASA Worldview we can see that temperatures at the Pole vary from 264K (-9C) to 254K (-20C)

Here is a generalised view from today. Most areas are covered in thick cloud as they have for several days.

"One of the first things that stands our are the strange cloud formations in the Bering Sea just south of the Aleutian Islands.

Once again we have these strange clouds which I do not find it difficult to imagine that some sort of microwave or weather modification has been used. I still cannot think of a simple and credible reason why it should be like this

Algal blooms in the Arctic?

Yesterday I posted the following article without comment which suggested that the Arctic sea ice decline is driving phytoplankton into the North.

ARCTIC SEA ICE DECLINE DRIVING OCEAN PHYTOPLANKTON FARTHER NORTH

 This true-color image, captured by the NOAA-20 satellite on July 30, 2018, shows a large phytoplankton bloom in the Barents Sea. Credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory

A new study based on satellite imagery of ocean color reveals phytoplankton spring blooms in the Arctic Ocean, which were previously nonexistent, are expanding northward at a rate of 1 degree of latitude per decade. Although blooms, or large explosions of phytoplankton, did not previously occur in this area, phytoplankton were present in the Arctic’s central basin at low biomass. The study also found the primary productivity of the phytoplankton, or the rate at which phytoplankton are converting sunlight into chemical energy, is increasing during the spring blooms.....

I decided to consult Sam Carana of the Arctic News for his views on this. He came back quickly with an answer that accorded with what my own views were:

"Looks like algae to me. Phytoplankton includes algae, bacteria and more. Terminology can be confusing. Cyanobacteria are sometimes considered to be algae. I guess there will be ships taking samples reporting soon."

The various species of algae are vastly different from each other, not only in pigmentation, but in cellular structure, complexity, and chosen environment 4,5. As such, algal taxonomy is still under debate, with some organizations classifying algae under different kingdoms, including Plantae, Protozoa and Chromista 4,6,8,9. While the overarching kingdom classification is not always agreed upon, the species, genus, family, class and phylum of each alga generally are 6.

To further complicate this nomenclature, single-celled algae often fall under the broad category of phytoplankton.

Algae, Phytoplankton and Chlorophyll

Here are some of the photos of the region showing the phenomenon.

From the 14 October.....

 

And from a similar period from last year, 2017.

It is therefore not totally new but relates to precisely this time of the year.

 Other data

The official data confirms what we have been saying - and that there has been no or very little) refreeze.

Despite moving into the northern winter, part from a narrow strip north of Canada and Greenland there is nowhere in the Arctic where the thickness is greater than 1-1.5 meters.

 High methane emissions
 

First, the latest available figures at ground level from CAMS (Monday, 15 October)

 

Here are some other figures (from NOAA)...

 

"Here is the data for the year-to-date on methane from Mount Loa. In my time there has been a habit on the part of NOAA to scrub out readings that deviate from the norm as here."

 

And from Barrow, Alaska...

"Looks like NOAA has stopped erasing the Barrow Methane data. Let's face it, nobody believes the trimmed down Data that Boulder leaves us after they erase all of the high readings as they have been doing since 2015."

--- Joe Neubarth, via Facebook

 

Here are some data from 469 mb

Remember, this is the peak reading from a hot spot on the chart. It is not the average. NOAA screws around with the average and tries to eliminate the highest readings that are usually over the eastern Siberian area or Greenland. There is another hot spot that they avoid to make certain they lower the first two hot spots. 

They will on occasion use a White Out to make it appear that the satellite missed an orbit over Alaska or over other parts of Siberia or China if there is too much pink in the atmosphere.

---Joe Neubarth, via Facebook

This is from CAMS from approximately the same altitude - 500 hPa (approx. 19,000 feet (or 6,000 meters)

The Arctic is at 5C above average temrperatures

Arctic Sea Ice Extent at Record Lows as Winter Temperatures Soar

Robertscribbler,

12 February 2018

Five point five degrees Celsius above average.

That’s how much warmer than ‘normal’ the entire region of the Arctic above the 66 degree North Latitude Line was earlier today. Areas within this large warm pool saw temperatures spike to a range of 15 to 25 C warmer than the already warmer than normal 1981-2010 base period. And broad regions saw temperature between 10 and 20 C above that 30-year average.

(The entire Arctic is an incredible 5.5 C warmer than normal today. Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice extent has plunged, once-more, into record low ranges. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)

It’s just a snapshot. But day after day, week after week, month after month, the story has been much the same throughout Fall and Winter of 2017-2018.

And as during last year’s ridiculously warm Arctic winter, the sea ice has taken a considerable pounding. Yesterday dropping to a new record low extent of 13.774 million square kilometers. Beating out the previous record low for the day set just last year. And dipping more than 1.8 million square kilometers below the 1979-1990 average. A period that already featured greatly reduced Arctic sea ice cover when compared to extents seen in the early 20th Century.

(Arctic sea ice extent for 2018 [lower pink line above] dipped into new record low ranges during recent days. Note that the 1979 – 1990 extent average is indicated by the green line at top. Image source: NSIDC.)

The primary cause of these ice losses is warming both of the ocean and of the air. And, as we can see in the ongoing trend, the Arctic is getting more than its fair share of both. Such polar amplification is a direct upshot of the massive volume of harmful greenhouse gasses being injected into the atmosphere through fossil fuel burning. And we are seeing the dark fruits of that burning now in the massive and ongoing winter losses of sea ice, the harm to various Arctic life forms like puffins and polar bears, and the risk of increasing sea level rise, ocean circulation destabilization, and increasingly extreme weather events that all result from the heating-up of polar environments.