Has Robert Fanney ('Robertscribbler') been turned?

What has happened to Robert Marston Fanney (aka "Robertscribbler")?

Anyone who has been following this blog for a while will know that I have been posting articles from Robertscribbler since 2012. Much of his earlier work was very good and included items such as the following, which I regard as very good climate journalism:

Tracking the Footprints of the Arctic Methane Monster: Black Craters in the Siberian Tundra, Methane Lacing 2,500 Mile Wide Smoke Plumes Over Gigantic Arctic Wildfires.

Large, Troubling Methane Pulse Coincides With Arctic Heatwave, Tundra Fires

Beyond the Point of No Return — Imminent Carbon Feedbacks Just Made the Stakes for Global Warming a Hell of a Lot Higher

Through The Looking Glass of The Great Dying: New Study Finds Ocean Stratification Proceeded Rapidly Over Past 150 Years

Back at the end of 2013 Robertscribbler was able to say this, citing Guy McPherson:

"... And we should not be comforted by this notion. Because Nature carries the biggest stick of all. A consequence hanging over our heads that grows larger and more dangerous with each passing year during which our insults to her continue.

Among the pessimists regarding the end consequences of human caused climate change and related pollution, ecologists are the worst (sic) of the bunch. This is likely due to the fact that ecologists are very intimately involved in the study of how communities of organisms succeed or fail in natural settings. Among all groups of scientists, they are perhaps the ones most intimately familiar with the way in which all living things are connected to both one another and to the natural world. Ecologists know all too well that small shifts can mean huge changes to biodiversity, the rate of death among living beings, and the distribution of species in a given environment. But the changes humans inflict are not small in the least. They roughly ripple through the natural world in ways that ecologists know all too well have never before been seen."

Dr. McPherson is such an ecologist and one with such great conscience and concern that he, years ago, abandoned most of the luxuries of modern civilization to live in a fashion that produced the least harm possible. Not that this action has resulted in more optimism on his part. In fact, Guy is one of a growing group of people who believe that no action is likely to save humankind. That our insults to the natural world have already grown too great."

And he concluded:

 

"It is a deadly transition for which we have growing evidence with almost each passing day, one that McPherson and others fear could truly make an end to us and to so many other living creatures on this world.

So many scientists, so much valid reason to be dreadfully concerned, and yet we continue on the path toward a great burning never before seen in Earth’s history…"

And yet these sentiments have never ever been repeated.

What I in fact know is that Robertscribbler engages in almost the most extensive censorship on the comments section that I know. Anyone citing Guy McPherson was blocked from any comments on his blog.  

In fact, I would go a step further and say that anyone citing Paul Beckwith or Sam Carana or Prof. Peter Wadhams attracted a similar response.

For me it came to a head in April 2016 when I tried to point out to him information that came from a source other than him.

'Robertscribbler' spits in the face of the people of the Southern Hemisphere

Since then I have been banned from commenting on his blog. 

I challenge you to find anything even vaguely objectionable on my part.

Shortly after that came the American elections of 2016. Since that time Robertscribbler has become less of a climate journalist and more of a hack who has at least as much to say about Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and most particularly, Elon Musk and his electric cars as he does about climate change.

Much of what has come out on climate has been nothing less than disappointing.

I have my own personal reflections on this but I will talk about his most recent material first

THE LATEST FROM ROBERT FANNEY ON ARCTIC ICE AND METHANE

A couple of days ago Robert Fanney posted a couple of videos (he seems to have stopped doing his blog.

 Tracking Present Surface Methane Hot Spots

In this one on methane he goes out of his way to disavow what he calls "alarmist" views.

He goes through what he considers the most salient features such as high readings in China and the Himalaya (which he ascribes to heavy rain).

Most importantly he points to high readings in northern Siberia but basically he tells us that this is coming from fires in northern Siberia as well as from thermokast lakes.

The fires in the tundra (where the nearest tree might be a thousand kilometres away) was a new one on me until I checked.

Not a tree within a thousand kilometres. Methane emissions are among the only credible explanations for fires in the tundra.

Indeed there are fires in the tundra but the question arises as to whether the methane came first or is a consequence.I would imagine that if methane is bubbling up to the surface in sufficient quantities even lakes could ignite - and indeed videos show this happening.

Once again we are reminded by Robert that he is "not taking into account the unsubstantiated worst-case scenarios"

Is that the same Robertscribbler who wrote this back in 2014?


Tracking the Footprints of the Arctic Methane Monster: Black Craters in the Siberian Tundra, Methane Lacing 2,500 Mile Wide Smoke Plumes Over Gigantic Arctic Wildfires.

Somehow, in going through the most salient points from the CAMS data from last Monday, 27 August the following seems to elude him!

This is the one feature that has been leaping out at me for several weeks now= huge concentrations of methane from Scandinavia. It is NOT just a one-off.

We all try to speculate as to the cause of these high methane readings but if I am honest I would have to admit I really don't know.

It is all in the realm of speculation.

But Robert Fanney seems to be very confident in using his authority to tell us what is going on. 

I suspect not only that he does not know any more than we do but he is,in fact, making it all up as he goes along as he tries to dismiss the "alarmists".

His next video was on the Arctic ice (which has a title uncannily like Margo's latest video.

Arctic Sea Ice, Weather, and Climate Update for August

Unlike Margo who is untrained in climate change science but is able to use her detailed eye to look at the data and pick out what is actually there in front of her eyes, Robert Fanny uses his authority to give an unbelievably shallow report on the Arctic ice to underline his contention that this is the 5th or 6th lowest sea ice area on record and to avoid telling us just how damaged the ice is.

Here is what Robert Fanney chooses NOT to show you in his video in his effort to paint 2018 as an "unexceptional year

Some speculation 
 
It is not usual for me to attack people, certainly not with ad hominems, unless they have crossed me (or more commonly friends such as Guy McPherson but because this blog has been so linked with Robert Fanney in the past I am going to make my feelings (and even my speculation) known.

As well as a significant decline in the quality of his writings and the quality of ideas I have noticed that he has outed himself as the worst sort of pro-Hillary cold war warrior.

Robertscribbler's neo-McCarthyist, russophobic smear

In addition to toning down his climate message to a level where he often seems conservative in comparison with many mass media headlines he also devotes much energy into pushing "clean energy" as a solution and electric vehicles and Elon Musk in particular.

Why not "do your bit for the planet" and drive a nice new car as well?

 

Racing to Catch Ludicrously Fast Model 3 Production Ramp, U.S. Automakers Grew EV Sales by 102 Percent in June

As France and Canada Plan to Phase Out Coal, Trump Backers Attack Tesla

Whereas,in the past if I wrote some critical comments people would come back and say "he is doing great work" increasingly I have found comments such as the following on my blog:

"I commented on his blog about his anti Putin rhetoric.  Result – blocked.

Scribbler simply won't let his readers see anything he doesn't agree with. It's a closed echo chamber."

Or - 

 

"Hi Seemorerocks. I visit your blog, Guy's blog, and scribbler's blog almost everyday. I found yours to be most informative about global tensions, guy's best on emotional commentary and scribbler on AGW news. 

"However, as a semi-regular at NBL, i have always been blocked at Scribbler regardless of my topic or insight. 

"He knows that i believe the situation is beyond any rational capacity to fix and therefore i am persona non grata."

Lesson is that he does not allow anyone other than his well-trained and sycophantic acolytes to comment.

His game seems to be to use his previously well-deserved authority to deflect people from reaching any conclusions that go beyond the most conservative Establishment views.  He is telling people "don't look there, look here".

My thoughts have veered towards towards wondering if he has been 'bought' as happens so often these days.

There can't be much money in writing second-tier science fiction novels so unless they have an independent source of income how do you afford to spend so much time on this endeavour.

What if Robert Fanney was, for example, paid a retainer by Musk to push his line?  You would tone down your message accordingly.

I have always assumed that his increasing conservatism is coming from being spooked by his own evidence or by developments under Trump. 

He would not be the first person to do so.

However, in the past few days, after looking  more carefully at what he is saying I have been reconsidering and speculating (and yes, that is what it is - speculation) that he might have been given some form of inducement to use his authority to pull the wool over people's eyes.

Such a thing no longer seems so outlandish in contemporary America.

Evidence that there is enough energy to melt interior Arctic ice from below

This confirms everything that we know about the Arctic ice from oobservations - that it is melting from below and this process does not stop with the ending of the melt season

Enough Heat to Melt Interior Arctic Ocean Ice is Building Beneath the Surface

Robert Fanney

A new study shows that the excess heat developed in newly ice free zones is being transported beneath the central ice. This heat is sequestered in a layer beneath the surface. But it contains enough energy to keep large regions of the Beaufort Sea ice free during most months if mixed, according to the new research.

‘Archived’ heat has reached deep into the Arctic interior, researchers say

By Jim Shelton

August 29, 2018

Arctic sea ice isn’t just threatened by the melting of ice around its edges, a new study has found: Warmer water that originated hundreds of miles away has penetrated deep into the interior of the Arctic.

That “archived” heat, currently trapped below the surface, has the potential to melt the region’s entire sea-ice pack if it reaches the surface, researchers say.

The study appears online Aug. 29 in the journal Science Advances.

“We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin,” said lead author Mary-Louise Timmermans, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University.

The upper ocean in the Canadian Basin has seen a two-fold increase in heat content over the past 30 years, the researchers said. They traced the source to waters hundreds of miles to the south, where reduced sea ice has left the surface ocean more exposed to summer solar warming. In turn, Arctic winds are driving the warmer water north, but below the surface waters.

“This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season,” Timmermans said. “Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year.”

The co-authors of the study are John Toole and Richard Krishfield of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

The National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs provided support for the research.

Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice losses at the basin margins

Abstract

Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage. It is shown that the solar heating, considered together with subduction rates of surface water in this region, is sufficient to account for the observed halocline warming. Heat absorption at the basin margins and its subsequent accumulation in the ocean interior, therefore, have consequences for Beaufort Gyre sea ice beyond the summer season.

Robert Fanney on the ice-free area north of Greenland

Much of the Region North of Greenland is Now Ice Free

Robert Fanny

What many had seen to be the most stable region of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has now broken up. A zone that typically saw 4 meter thick ice and compact regions as thick as 20 meters is now mostly open water.

Ice is thinning in the East Siberian sea and methane emissions on the increase

Arctic Sea Ice Thinning in the East Siberian Sea

Robert Fanny

Methane levels

Looking back at the 2012 ice melt in context

 What we are currently observing in the Arctic has reminded me of this article from Robertscribbler from the 2013 melt season.

The photo is still on my Facebook page.

North Pole Melting: Ice Camera 2 Swims as Camera 1 Gets its Feet Wet

Camera 2 in deep water at North Pole. Image sourc: APL

Robertscribbler,

25 July, 2015

This summer has seen a great number of extraordinary events resulting from human caused climate change. These include massive heat dome high pressure systems setting off record droughts, fires and heat waves, Arctic temperatures rocketing into the 80s and 90s, Europe and Canada suffering some of their worst flooding events in history and a crazy US weather system moving backwards against the prevailing weather pattern for more than 3,000 miles. Add to these record events a substantial melting of ice in the Arctic’s most central regions, and you end up with rather strong proofs that our greenhouse gas emissions have permanently altered the word’s weather.

From late May to early July, a persistent Arctic cylone (PAC 2013) first fractured ice near the North Pole, then consistently widened and melted the gap it created. Now a large triangle of very thin ice extends from the North Pole south and eastward toward the Laptev Sea. The section of meter or less thickness keeps widening even as gaps continue opening in the ice and melt ponds form over many of the remaining flows.

Further north and on toward the western side of the North Pole, two cameras supplied by the Applied Physics Lab and funded through a National Science Foundation grant are performing their own daily recording if this major melt event. The melting, which from the satellite, appears to have turned the sea ice near the North Pole into swiss cheese has had a marked effect on visible surface conditions as well.

Sea ice swiss chees as seen through the clouds near the North Pole. Image source: NASA/Lance Modis

Of the two ice cameras, #2 so far has seen the most action.  On about July 13th, melt puddles began to form in the region of Camera #2. By earlier this week, the camera was deep in a growing pool of ice melt. By today, the water had deepened further covering all the markers surrounding both the camera and its related sensor buoy. Water now appears to be about 3 feet deep and the pond just keeps growing and growing (you can read more about the saga of Ice Camera #2 here).

But now, Ice Camera #1 appears to be about to suffer the same fate. Over the past couple of days, melt ponds have now also been forming in the vicinity of Camera #1. You can see this new set of melt puddles here:

Puddles form near North Pole Camera 1. Image source: APL

Note the melt puddle snaking its way behind the wind vane visible in the camera’s field of view and on toward Camera #1 itself. If conditions at this camera are similar to those near Camera #2, then we can expect Carema #1 to be swimming in about ten days time.

With temperatures remaining above freezing for much of the Central Arctic, melt conditions have tended to dominate. Now, most of the remaining ice is rather weak, with a thickness of about 2 meters or less. And with so much of this thin ice in areas near the North Pole, a possibility exists that much of this region will melt out over the next 6 weeks or so.

As for the Ice Cams? It appears that #1 may soon join #2 in the drink.

 The following is from Wikipedia

Melt ponds are pools of open water that form on sea ice in the warmer months of spring and summer. The ponds are also found on glacial ice and ice shelves. Ponds of melted water can also develop under the ice.

Melt ponds are usually darker than the surrounding ice, and their distribution and size is highly variable. They absorb solar radiation rather than reflecting it as ice does and, thereby, have a significant influence on Earth's radiation balance. This differential, which had not been scientifically investigated until recently, has a large effect on the rate of ice melting and the extent of ice cover.[1]

Melt ponds can melt through to the ocean's surface.[2] Seawater entering the pond increases the melt rate because the salty water of the ocean is warmer than the fresh water of the pond. The increase in salinity also depresses the water's freezing point.

Water from melt ponds over land surface can run into crevasses or moulins – tubes leading under ice sheets or glaciers – turning into meltwater. The water may reach the underlying rock. The effect is an increase in the rate of ice flow to the oceans, as the fluid behaves like a lubricant in the basal sliding of glaciers.[3]

Effects of melt ponds[edit]

See also: Glacial motion

The effects of melt ponds are diverse (this subsection refers to melt ponds on ice sheets and ice shelves). Research by Ted Scambos, of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, has supported the melt water fracturing theory that suggests the melting process associated with melt ponds has a substantial effect on ice shelf disintegration. [4] Seasonal melt ponded and penetrating under glaciers shows seasonal acceleration and deceleration of ice flows affecting whole icesheets.[5] Accumulated changes by ponding on ice sheets appear in the earthquake record of Greenland and other glaciers:[6] "Quakes ranged from six to 15 per year from 1993 to 2002, then jumped to 20 in 2003, 23 in 2004, and 32 in the first 10 months of 2005."[7] Ponding in the extreme is lakes and lakes in association with glaciers are examined in the particular case of the Missoula Floods.

• 

  Melt ponds on sea ice in Baffin Bay
 
• 

  This false colour satellite image shows blue melt ponds in Greenland

Given what we are observing I have my doubts that what we are observing in the Arctic are meltpools.  

The ice seems too unstable and thin to support them.

But that is only my considered opinion   

 

Whose data to believe?

I have no way of judging the veracity of evidence but the evidence I have matches more closely what I am seeing happening to the Arctic sea ice.

When it comes to balancing sources I have lost all faith in Robert Fanney (aka Robertscribbler)

Robertscribbler contends Arctic Sea Ice Volume at 5th to 6th Lowest on Record

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b022ad35f0c0d200c-pi

This data, supplied by Zack Labe tells a different story
 

 

This data, from the NDICC is already a couple of weeks old but shows sea ice extent approaching that of the record 2012 minimum. Not quite there, but approaching.

All of this ignores the all-important ice volume.