Something wrong with the rain these days

Intensifying Equatorial Rains: 3.3 Million Afflicted by Flooding in India and Bangladesh as Hundreds Lose Lives to Landslides from Sierra Leone to Nepal

Robertscribbler,

16 August, 2017

There’s something wrong with the rain these days. For many regions of the globe, when the rain does fall, it more and more often comes with an abnormally fierce intensity.

This increasing severity of heavy rainfall events is just one aspect of human-forced climate change through fossil fuel burning. For as the Earth warms, both the rate of evaporation and precipitation increases. And as atmospheric moisture loading and convection increase coordinate with rising temperatures, so do the potential peak intensities of the most powerful storms.

(Climate and extreme weather news August 13 through 15)

Sierra Leone — More than 300 Dead, 600 Missing After Deadly Mudslide

This past week, in Sierra Leone — already one of the wettest regions of the globe at this time of year — a very heavy rainfall event generated a severe mudslide that ripped a huge swath of devastation through Freetown. 3,000 people were immediately rendered homeless by the great rush of mud, rock, and soil. But more tragically in excess of 300 people are feared dead with 600 still missing.

This single event represents the deadliest natural disaster on record for Sierra Leone — which also suffered a flood that killed 103 people in 2009. According to news reports, the region in which this disaster occurred has experienced 20 inches more rain than usual over the 30 day period from July 15 through August 15. A total amount of rainfall in a single month period that’s now in the range of 50 inches. Clearly, the surrounding lands could not maintain integrity under the force of such a prolonged deluge. And unfortunately one of the succumbing hillsides let loose into a valley settlement.

(Heavy thunderstorms of Freetown on August 14th. Image source: NASA and Weather Underground.)

A statement by Weather Underground’s Bob Henson provides further climate context for this disaster:

The heaviest downpours in many parts of the globe have become heavier in recent decades, a trend attributed to human-produced climate change and expected to continue. A study led by Christopher Taylor (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), published this spring in the journal Nature, finds that the Sahel’s most intense mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms) have tripled in frequency since 1982. The recovery of Sahel rainfall since the 1980s only explains a small part of this trend, according to the study authors. They argue that Saharan warming is helping to intensify convection within the MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. “The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain,” the study concludes.

Himachal Pradesh and Nepal Landslides and Floods Kill Over 100 More

Severe rains also on August 14th unleashed a mudslide in Pradesh India that knocked two buses off a cliff — resulting in the tragic loss of 46 lives. The resulting landslide also injured 5 other passengers even as it buried numerous homes along its path.

Across the Bay of Bengal in Nepal flooding and landslides resulted in the loss of 62 lives as 30 districts reported severe conditions. There, rains displaced 1,500 families, destroyed 305 homes, and damaged more than 15,000 other dwellings. Dozens of Nepali roads have been blocked, a school has collapsed, and an airport has been forced to close as severe storms inundated the region.

In India and Bangladesh, 3.3 Million People are Affected by Flooding

In the Indian state of Assam, 84 people have lost their lives due to a massive flood that has now affected 2 million people across 29 districts. 2,734 villages have flooded and 183,584 people have been forced to relocate to one of 700 refugee camps. Meanwhile, across the state, some 3,830 water rescues have occurred. Dozens of roads and bridges have been washed out as rivers rise from moderate to unprecedented flood stages.

(Assam floods on August 14. Image source: Government of India and Floodlist.)

Finally, in Bangladesh, record rainfall has pushed rivers to some of the highest levels ever recorded. The result has been the forced displacement of 368,000 people to 970 temporary shelters as 1.3 million are afflicted by flooding. 

Tragically, 27 Bangladeshis have also lost their lives due to the extreme flooding. Rainfall rates of up to ten inches per day are contributing to the severe flooding even as water from floods further upstream in India and Nepal are flowing into Bangladesh river systems.

Conditions in Context — Very Severe Equatorial Rains

Overall, these various events may appear to occur separately. However, they are all associated with a very severe Equatorial rain pattern developing from Africa through Southeast Asia and stretching into the Atlantic inter-tropical-convergence zone during 2017. The apparently increased thunderstorm activity is now impacting everything from the intensity of monsoonal rains over Southeast Asia, the severity of storms in the Sahel of Africa, and the early formation of tropical cyclones off Cape Verde during August.

These heavy rainfall features are arguably linked to the climate-change based intensification of the hydrological cycle and, particularly, to the increasing intensity of Equatorial thunderstorms. The overall climate and weather trend for the larger region should thus be noted and these various related events should not be viewed in isolation.

Links:

Weather Underground

Floodlist

NASA

Climate and Extreme Weather News

Hat tip to Shawn Redmond

Hat tip to Suzanne

Britain cuts aid to Ebola-stricken Sierra Leone

Obviously for Britain Ebola (and certainly some little country in Africa) is not as important as bombing the shit out of Iraq.

Ebola crisis: 'Britain has not abandoned Sierra Leone' – but cuts bilateral aid by a fifth

Reductions in the amount of money sent to help the government of Ebola-stricken Sierra Leone are not damaging efforts to combat the virus, said Justine Greening, as she insisted that Britain remained the country's biggest ally

Justine Greening addresses a press conference during The Ebola Donors Conference at Lancaster House Photo: GETTY IMAGES

the Telegraph,

1 October, 2014

Justine Greening, the international development secretary, has been forced to deny that cuts in Britain's bilateral aid programme have hampered the response to the Ebola epidemic.

Britain's bilateral aid to Sierra Leone and Liberia – the money that is given directly to the government – has been reduced by £14.5 million for 2014-15, compared to the previous year. The International Development Committee on Thursday published its report into "Recovery and development" in the two nations worst hit with Ebola, and said the study, began in March, showed "the dangers of ignoring the least developed countries in the world."

"The spread of Ebola has demonstrated the importance that governments of developing countries need to attach to health system strengthening," the report states. "The weak state of the health system in both countries has greatly reduced the effectiveness of the response to Ebola."

Five people are currently being infected with Ebola every hour in Sierra Leone, and over 600 people have died so far.

Liberia is the worst-hit nation, with almost two-thirds of the 3,338 deaths in West Africa.

Quarantined girlfriend of US Ebola victim says sheets are still on bed 02 Oct 2014

But Ms Greening denied that there had been a cut in actual funding.

"The UK is the largest financial donor to Sierra Leone and over the last few years our aid programme has grown in size rather than reduce," she said.

Speaking at a conference in London on Thursday which was called to raise money to fight Ebola, she said that the total amount of money spent in Sierra Leone was increasing – even though the direct, bilateral funds from Britain were being cut. The money – £74 million for 2014-15 – was instead being given to NGOs and bodies such as the UN to spend in the country, she said.

Last year her department planned to spend £81m in the country, but only delivered £68m of funding.

"And I think you can see further support arriving to Sierra Leone in terms of this £125 million package today. So I think there is no question of support to Sierra Leone that is not only broad based and ongoing, but when crisis hits we are prepared to scale it up significantly."

When pressed on why Britain was switching from bilateral support to funding multilateral programmes, she said: "It's important for countries like Sierra Leone, like Nigeria and Liberia to have their health systems strengthened, we've seen that today, and we see how short sighted a view it would be to fail to help those countries develop their health systems."

A spokesman for DfID, the department for international development, defended the decision, and said that Britain's response to the crisis was "something to be proud of".

"I think the important point is that multilateral spend, in some cases, is most effective," she said. "Are we abandoning Sierra Leone? Certainly not. In fact it is the total opposite."

But Sir Malcolm Bruce, chair of the International Development Committee, said DfID had given no explanation for the reduction of its bilateral funding.

"The point we were making is that the bilateral programme has been cut," he told The Telegraph.

"As a Committee we recognise that some work must be done through agencies. But DfID have not yet explained the benefits of this. What was the case for cutting the programme of bilateral aid and diverting it to multilateral? We need to prioritise further funding for health programmes."

And Sir Malcolm added that he was concerned that the £125 million, pledged by Britain to help its former colony, must be used to create a lasting legacy of health care, rather than spent on flying experts in and then out.

"The amount is a lot more than would normally be spent in the country," he said. "And I'd like to think that it will be used not only to bring Ebola under control, but also to have a lasting impact on the health of the country."