China heat dome

Ocean Heat Dome Steams Coastal China: Shanghai to Near Very Dangerous 35 Degree Celsius Wet Bulb Temperatures This Week

(Image source: NASA/Lance-Modis)

robertscribbler,

7 August, 2013

An ocean heat dome that formed over a broad area of the Pacific Ocean, the South and East China seas, and a large stretch of coastal China during late July continues to create a dangerous combination of record hot temperatures and high humidity.

According to reports from AccuWeather, the sweltering coastal China town of Shanghai hit a new all-time record high temperature of 105.8 degrees Fahrenheit (41 degrees C) on Tuesday. But this marker may just be a milepost to what is predicted to be a 107-108 degree scorcher on Wednesday and Friday. With humidity predicted to be around 50% and barometric pressure readings expected to hit 1005 millibars, these represent extraordinarily dangerous conditions.

The human wet bulb limit: 35 C

Recent climate papers by former NASA scientist James Hansen have issued warnings of the potential for wet bulb temperatures on the surface of the Earth to start to exceed levels that are lethal for humans at 35 degrees C  for longer and longer periods as humans continue to warm the atmosphere. Hansen notes:

One implication is that if we should “succeed” in digging up and burning all fossil fuels, some parts of the planet would become literally uninhabitable, with some time in the year having wet bulb temperature exceeding 35°C. At such temperatures, for reasons of physiology and physics, humans cannot survive, because even under ideal conditions of rest and ventilation, it is physically impossible for the environment to carry away the 100 W of metabolic heat that a human body gene rates when it is at rest.

Different from direct air temperature, wet bulb readings measure what air feels like on the surface of the skin. The measure simulates the cooling effect caused by human sweat evaporating from the skin surface. In very dry, hot conditions, human skin temperature can remain below this lethal level as the rate of evaporation increases due to dryness. Since most of the world’s hottest regions are very dry, humans can withstand air temperatures of 120 degrees (Fahrenheit) and above. Thankfully, it is very rare that extraordinarily hot and humid conditions occur in the same locations. This is generally due to a cooling affect provided by an adjacent ocean mass — as most damp regions are also near or surrounded by cooler ocean air.

The Ocean Heat Dome

Enter the weather conditions forecast for Shanghai tomorrow and Friday…

A massive heat dome high pressure system has settled, not just over land areas of China, but directly over a large region of the Pacific Ocean and adjacent China seas. The result is that sea surface temperatures are now ranging 1-4 degrees Celsius above the already warm 1971-2000 average with a large area showing temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit). This large region of hot water and corresponding hot ocean air is pumping both heat and humidity into the Shanghai region. Hot ocean air is being pumped over Southeast Asia where it mixes with the already baking land mass air to form a brutal brew of very high heat and high humidity. The clockwise flow of the heat dome then pulls this mixture of record hot and humid air over the highly populated regions of Shanghai.

These ocean-based heat dome conditions are not normal, with typical heat dome conditions usually forming over land. The danger in this particular set of conditions is that very high heat combines with higher than usual humidity to result in much greater heat injury risks for humans.

Sea surface temperatures under Ocean Heat Dome

(Image source: Weather Online)

Forecasts for tomorrow and Friday are showing Shanghai temperatures will probably reach at least 107-108 degrees Fahrenheit (42 C) in an area where relative humidity is forecast to be 50% and where barometric pressures are forecast to remain around 1005 millibars of mercury. This brings us to the extraordinarily dangerous high wet bulb temperature of 33 degrees Celsius. And should thermometers crack 113 degrees (F) under those same temperature and pressure conditions, Earth will have achieved a new and very ominous wet bulb temperature record of 35 degrees Celsius.

Please do your best to stay safe

In such instances, the best defense is to find a cool, shaded location and limit exposure to heat during the hottest times of the day. Drinking cold fluids can also aid in reducing core body temperatures. A common heat mitigation aid is freezing a bottle of water and carrying it in a pocket next to your thigh. The cold bottle will contact the skin near the femoral artery, cooling blood there and transporting this cooler blood throughout the body. If extreme heat is still too much, placing the bottle in direct contact with the large veins in the neck will provide even more efficient cooling. This simple cooling pack also doubles as a means to replenish vital fluids.

Under such conditions, it is also important to be alert for signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke to include:

• Confusion
• Dark-colored urine (a sign of dehydration)
• Dizziness
• Profuse sweating
• Weakness
• Muscle cramps
• A lack of sweating

China has also activated emergency operations facilities and is providing information and aid in the hardest hit regions.

Unfortunately, record heat is expected to continue over Shanghai through at least next Wednesday with only one day expected to see below 100 degree (F) readings. With so many already dealing with heat stress, our best hopes are that all there will have the means to remain safe.

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Animal Apocalypse in Shanghai

Pigs, Ducks, Black Swans, Chickens And Now Fish: The Shanghai Animal Apocalypse Accelerates

Zero Hedge,

8 April, 2013

Shanghai just can't catch a break - first it was floating dead pigs, then ducks, then black swans, then mass chicken exterminations, and now fish. 

From the Telegraph: 

" Just weeks after over 16,000 putrefying pigs were pulled from Shanghai's Huangpu river, more than 250kg of dead carp had to be retrieved from a river in the city's Songjiang district. Mystery still surrounds the cause of death, but numerous explanations have surfaced in the Chinese media since residents first complained about the foul-smelling fish last Monday. Theories reportedly include climate change, electrocution, an explosion or even a drug overdose. 

The Shanghai Daily quoted a local government official who "speculated" the fish could have been "drugged." 

So, in China things are so good, even the fish are ODing on sleeping pills? 

Hardly, but the fact that this is even floated "out there" just shows how miserably The Onion has missed its IPO window.

More:

China has become notorious for its polluted rivers, largely as a result of decades of unbridled economic growth. Last year a senior official conceded 20 percent of the country's rivers had become "too toxic for human contact".

 

Shanghai authorities have so far denied the "fish kill" was caused by water pollution, citing the absence of chemical plants near the river.

 

Whatever the cause, authorities insist there is no risk to public health or drinking water sources.

 

"The river's quality hasn't been affected by the dead fish so far. It remains the same level as usual," an official named as Mr Zhang told the China Daily. He did not explain what the usual level was.

 

Nor was there a connection between the dead carp and the thousands of rotting pig carcasses pulled from Shanghai's Huangpu last month, local environmental official Liu Fengqiang said.

Of course not - that was a completely separate instance of mass drug-facilitated suicide.

One river-dweller told the China Daily he had stopped using tap water in the wake of the two scandals. "I need to trust my sources of water. I'm still haunted by the dead pigs," Shi Hua said.

 

Meanwhile, samples of the dead fish have been sent for testing and the fish themselves have been laid to rest.

 

"All the dead fish plucked out of the water were buried safely," the Shanghai Daily reported.

... And have already been sold by local restaurants as KFC's latest mystery meat?

All of the above visually, courtesy of George Chen:

Shanghai McDonalds Slashes 

McNuggets Price By Nearly 

Half As Birdflu Fears Drive 

Away Buyers

Zero Hedge,

8 April, 2013

How do you know when the people "just say no" to chicken over rampant bird flu concerns? When even McDonalds (whose ad campaign for the past decade "I am loving it" continues to be an anagram for "ailing vomit") is forced to slash chicken-related prices, in this case the 20 piece McNuggets, from CNY36 to CNY20. 

Pretty soon not even giving away the McMystery meat will clear out the shelves of all chicken-related fast food first in Shanghai and soon elsewhere in China. Finally, we dread to imagine the horrors that will befall Yum (read China KFC sales), now that after so much pain, the fast-food chain had finally reported a modest bounce in Chinese sales. So much for that.

Bird flu

Mass cull in Shanghai as bird flu toll mounts

All poultry slaughtered in Chinese city's market where new H7N9 strain has now been linked to six deaths.

al-Jazeera,

4 April, 2013

China has announced a sixth death from a new bird flu strain, while authorities carried out the slaughter of all poultry at a Shanghai market where the virus was detected in pigeons being sold for meat.

The mass bird killing on Friday is the first so far as the Chinese government responds to the H7N9 strain of bird flu, which has sickened 16 people, many critically, along the eastern seaboard in its first known infections of people.

The first cases were announced on Sunday.

Health officials believe people are contracting the virus through direct contact with infected fowl.

Gregory Hartyl, spokesman for the World Health Organisation (WHO), said that the risk of the virus being spread between people was still a cause for concern.

"We may be seeing very few isolated cases of limited human-to-human transmission," Hartyl told Al Jazeera from Geneva, Switzerland.

Hartyl said that WHO was following up more than 500 contacts in regards to the virus.

"Of these now 16 confirmed cases that we have, and now these over 500 contacts, a couple of them do have signs of fever, or of runny nose, or of other flu symptoms, which means that until we know exactly what's happened with these contacts, we wouldn't want to say that there's no human-to-human transmission," Hartyl said.

"What we would say, however, is that it's very limited if there is."

Potential global pandemic

Scientists are watching closely to see if the flu could potentially spark a global pandemic.

The Agriculture Ministry confirmed late on Thursday that the H7N9 virus had been detected in live pigeons on sale at a produce market in Shanghai.

The killing of birds at the Huhuai market started on Thursday night after the city's agricultural committee ordered it in a notice also posted on its website.

State media on Friday ran pictures of animal health officials in protective overalls and masks working through the night at the market, taking notes as they stood over piles of poultry carcasses in plastic bags.

The area was guarded by police and cordoned off with plastic tape.

Experts urged Chinese health authorities to keep testing healthy birds, saying the H7N9 virus can infect birds without causing disease, making it harder to detect than the H5N1 bird flu virus that is more familiar to Asian countries.

H5N1 set off warnings when it began ravaging poultry across Asia in 2003 and has since killed 360 people worldwide, mostly after close contact with infected birds.

New bird flu strand

New bird flu strand could be linked to dead pigs in Shanghai river: expert

A worker cleaning up dead pigs out of the river. (Photo/Xinhua)

WantChinaTimes,

1 April, 2013

The new strand of the bird flu that has already killed two people and left another critically ill in eastern China could be linked to the thousands of dead pigs found floating in a Shanghai river last month, according to a Hong Kong infectious disease expert.

China's Ministry of Health and the National Health and Family Planning Commission announced on Sunday the world's first reported cases of the H7N9 virus, a new subtype of the avian influenza. The virus has already killed two men, aged 87 and 27, from Shanghai, while a 35-year-old woman from Anhui province remains in critical condition.

Health authorities said there is currently insufficient data to suggest that the new strand could spread among humans, especially as 88 close contacts of the three had tested negative for the virus. As of now there is no vaccine available.

Ho Pak-leung, director of the Infectious Disease Center at the University of Hong Kong, told reporters that the H7N9 cases could be related to the 10,000-plus pig carcasses that were pulled out of Shanghai's Huangpu River since early March. Local media reports attributed the mass dumping to a swine epidemic earlier in the year.

While there is no concrete evidence to suggest a definitive link between the two, the fact that the 27-year-old victim was a pork seller means health departments should collect samples of the dead pigs to see if they have been affected by the same virus, Ho said.

The previous outbreak of the highly pathogenic bird flu that first struck China in 2003 belonged to the H5 subtype, Ho said. This time the human infection appears to be different and suggests that this strand of the avian influenza might be evolving.

Ho is not the only person to draw a link between the new bird flu and the pig carcasses. Yuen Kwok-yung, a professor in the microbiology department at the University of Hong Kong, told reporters that while the H7N9 subtype should be low pathogenic, the virus could have mutated after infecting the pigs. However, Yuen urged the public not to panic until all necessary tests have been carried out.

Many of China's internet users have also drawn a direct relationship between the flu and the pigs, with some saying it is obvious that birds passed the virus to pigs, which were then consumed by humans.

Huang Li-min, the director of infection in children at National Taiwan University Hospital, said the recent deaths in China are not a coincidence and that the fatality rate could be high if the virus turns out to be highly pathogenic. The virus does not necessarily have to go from bird to pig to human; it is possible that the virus could be transmitted directly from birds to humans, Huang said, adding that at this stage, the disease should be controllable as long as it is not spread from human to human.

The Shanghai pig carcasses

China pig deaths: Toll from Shanghai rivers nears 14,000

The number of dead pigs discovered in Chinese rivers around Shanghai has risen to almost 14,000, officials say.

BBC,

20 March, 2013

There is no word from the authorities about the cause of the deaths.

Last week, officials retrieved nearly 6,000 pig carcasses from the Huangpu River network. They insisted that water from the river was safe.

Residents have condemned the local government's failure to account for the carcasses, which some believe have been dumped by farmers upstream.

Workers have been pulling dead pigs from rivers that supply Shanghai with drinking water for the past 11 days, sparking alarm on internet chat sites.

Correspondents say that the carcasses are embarrassing for the city's authorities, who want Shanghai to be seen as an international financial centre.

The scandal has also highlighted China's difficulties with food safety as pork is one of the country's most popular meats.

Outrage

Farmers in the Jiaxing area of Zhejiang province, upstream from Shanghai, have denied dumping the pigs in rivers.

The pigs have washed ashore along the river

Improperly disposed of animals that have died from disease can often end up in China's food supply, experts say, despite laws against such practices.

So far, the general mood in the affected areas has been of concern rather than outrage or panic.

The Chinese public has seen food scandals before, such as the use of oil scraped from drains for cooking, and baby formula contaminated with chemicals.

Laboratory tests have identified that some of the pigs had porcine circovirus, a common disease that affects pigs but not humans.

Jiaxing officials have said that the pigs may have fallen victim to the cold weather.

The scandal comes amid growing concerns about China's environment, including recent record smog levels in Beijing, and water and air pollution affecting villages.

China's dead pigs

Hogwash Update - Latest Number Of Floating Chinese Pigs: 5,916 And Rising Fast

Zero Hedge,

12 March, 2013

First it was 900, then 1200, then 3000, and now the latest tally of dead pigs floating in the Shanghai water supply has hit nearly 6000. AP has the latest number: " The number of dead pigs found floating in a river flowing into Shanghai has reached nearly 6,000. The Shanghai municipal government said in an online announcement that 5,916 swine carcasses had been retrieved from Huangpu River by 3 p.m. Tuesday, but added that municipal water remains safe." At what point will the dead pigs begin to pose a health challenge? 10,000? 100,000? What is the maximum Chinese Surgeon General RDA of dead pig in one's drinking water? And whatever it is, how long until, pulling a page from Fukushima, it is quickly doubled? But perhaps the biggest question is what is causing this mass death phenomenon, and what does it mean for the quality and safety of other pigs in circulation?

More from AP

The surge in the dumping of dead pigs — believed to be from pig farms in the upstream Jiaxing area in the neighboring Zhejiang province — has followed police campaigns to curb the illicit trade of pork products harvested from diseased pigs.

 

Shanghai authorities said the city has taken proper measures to safely dispose of the pig carcasses and that the city's water plants are stepping up efforts to disinfect public water and testing for six common swine viruses.

 

The Shanghai government reported no major swine epidemic, widespread pig deaths or dumping of pigs within the city boundaries of Shanghai.

 

The state-run China News news agency said Monday that Zhejiang province had reported no swine epidemic but that a provincial agriculture official blamed cold weather for the deaths of the pigs.

 

The official, who was identified only by his family name Gu, told China News that the practice of dumping dead pigs into rivers lingers among some pig farmers in the city of Jiaxing. "We are still introducing the practice of collecting dead pigs," Gu was quoted as saying.

 

Shanghai authorities have been pulling out the swollen and rotting pigs, some with their internal organs visible, since Friday — and revolting images of the carcasses in news reports and online blogs have raised public ire against local officials.

 

Beijing-based writer Li Mingsheng expressed shock when he learned of the latest number of dead pigs in Shanghai.

 

"This is not only an environmental issue but also a public moral problem," Li wrote. "What's been polluted is not only Shanghai's river water but also the spirit of our country people."

The good news: China has many, many more pigs. Recall this chart:

The bad news: what happens if China were to uncover that whatever ailments were present in the current batch of "hog wash" has become an epidemic? Just how high will the most important price tag in all of China - pork meat - soar to if quality controls were to be enabled? And what happens to food inflation which in China is actually indicative of reality due to its component as a percentage of CPI being one of the highest in the entire world?

How quick will the PBOC be forced to extract even more liquidity from the market then, and have the Politburo make urgent calls to the rest of the G-7 demanding an immediate, if transitory, end to the global reflation experiment?