East-West tensions

Russia puts international space station on table over Ukraine sanctions

Moscow says it will reject US request to prolong life of ISS beyond 2020 in retaliation for Washington's sanctions

the Guardian,

13 May, 2014

Russia cast doubt on the long-term future of the international space station, a showcase of post-cold war cooperation, as it retaliated on Tuesday against US sanctions over Ukraine.

The country's deputy prime minister, Dmitry Rogozin, said Moscow would reject a US request to prolong the station's use beyond 2020, and ban Washington from using Russian-made rocket engines to launch military satellites.

Moscow took the action, which also included suspending the operation of GPS satellite navigation system sites on its territory from June, in response to Washington's plans to deny export licences for hi-tech items that could help the Russian military.

"We are very concerned about continuing to develop hi-tech projects with such an unreliable partner as the United States, which politicises everything," Rogozin told a news conference.

Washington wants to keep the international space station in use until at least 2024.

Russia's threat to part ways on a project which was supposed to end the space race underlines how far relations between the former cold war rivals have deteriorated since Russia annexed Crimea in March.

Since the end of the US space shuttle project, Russian Soyuz spacecraft have been the only way astronauts can get to the space station, whose crews include both Americans and Russians.

At a time when Moscow is struggling to modernise its space programme, Rogozin said US plans to deny export licences for some hi-tech items were a blow to Russian industry. "These sanctions are out of place and inappropriate," he said. "We have enough of our own problems."

Rogozin said Moscow was planning strategic changes in its space industry after 2020 and aimed to use money and intellectual resources that now go to the space station for a project "with more prospects".

He also suggested Russia could use the station without the US. "The Russian segment can exist independently from the American one. The US one cannot," he said.

Nasa is working with companies to develop space taxis with the goal of restoring US transport to the station by 2017, and in the meantime the US pays Russia more than $60m per person to fly its astronauts to the station.

The upheaval in Ukraine, where Washington says Russia is backing separatists and the Kremlin accuses the US of helping protesters to topple a Moscow-friendly president in February, has led to the worst east-west crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

In addition to the hi-tech sector sanctions, the US has imposed visa bans and assets freezes on officials and politicians and targeted companies with links to Russia's president, Vladimir Putin. The EU has also imposed sanctions.

The Russian foreign ministry said earlier on Tuesday that the latest EU measures were an "exhausted, trite approach" that would only deepen discord and hamper efforts to defuse the crisis in Ukraine.

Moscow to suspend American GPS sites on Russian territory from June

Russia is going to suspend the operation of all American GPS sites on its territory, starting from June 1, said Russia’s deputy PM, Dmitry Rogozin, who is in charge of space and defense industries.

RT,

13 May, 2014

"Starting June 1, we will halt the work of those stations on Russian territory,” Rogozin said.

Rogozin pointed out that American GPS ground stations are located in Russia under an agreement that dates back to 1993 and 2001.

“Under this agreement there are 11 GPS stations on the territories of 10 [Russian federal] subjects,” he said.

He stressed that Moscow and Washington have until May 31 to agree on the issue of setting Russian GLONASS stations on US territory.

“We’re starting negotiations which will last for three months. We hope that by the end of summer, these talks will bring a solution that will allow our cooperation to be restored on the basis of parity and proportionality,” Rogozin said.

But if the negotiations turn out to be fruitless, operation of the 11 American GPS stations in Russia will “be permanently terminated” from September 1, he warned.

Dmitry Rogozin also said that Moscow is banning Washington from using Russian-made rocket engines, which the US has used to deliver its military satellites into orbit.

“We proceed from the fact that without guarantees that our engines are used for non-military spacecraft launches only, we won’t be able to supply them to the US,”Rogozin is cited as saying by Interfax news agency.

If such guarantees aren’t provided the Russian side will also be unable to perform routine maintenance for the engines, which have been previously delivered to the US, he added.

The US relies on Russian-made RD-180 and NK-33 engines to launch military and civilian satellites into space, with NASA saying it’s unlikely to produce a fully operational rocket engine of its own before 2020.

According to Rogozin, Moscow also isn’t planning to agree to the US offer of prolonging operation of the International Space Station (ISS).

“We currently project that we’ll require the ISS until 2020,” he said. “We need to understand how much profit we’re making by using the station, calculate all the expenses and depending on the results decide what to do next.”

“A completely new concept for further space exploration” is currently being developed by the relevant Russian agencies, the official explained.

Previously, the US space agency, NASA, had asked Russia’s Roscosmos to keep the ISS in orbit till 2024.

Relations between Moscow and Washington have seriously deteriorated after the accession into Russia of the Ukrainian Republic of Crimea, which refused to recognize the new coup-imposed authority in Kiev.

The US and its EU partners have introduced several waves of sanctions against Russia, which have seen assets frozen and travel bans imposed on dozens of the country’s politicians and businessman, as well as the cessation of joint projects in different areas, including space.

However, Rogozin stressed that Russia will apply restrictive measures of its own only as a response to sanctions imposed by the West.

“We won’t be first to adopt sanctions, especially in the high-tech area. For us it is a matter of employment of our specialists,” he said.

International relations

NATO’s second-in-command says Russia is now an enemy, not a partner

NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow now says that the allied group has been compelled to treat Russia “as more of an enemy than a partner,” according to an Associated Press report published Thursday.

RT,

1 May, 2014

The 61-year-old former United States ambassador to Russia reportedly told journalists this week that Moscow’s role in the ongoing crisis in Ukraine has forced NATO to reconsider the alliance’s opinion on Russia, and that additional troops may soon be mobilized to the region as tensions worsen.

AP journalist Robert Burns wrote on Thursday that Vershbow said the Kremlin’s perceived part in the recent events in Ukraine “marks a turning point in decades of effort by NATO to draw Moscow closer.”

NATO’s second-in-command reportedly told journalists that the alliance is now considering new measures meant to counter any future acts of aggression on the part of Russia aimed at partner nations, and soon could deploy a larger number of combat forces to Eastern Europe.

Journalists reporting for Civil.Ge wrote on Thursday that Vershbow told the audience at a panel discussion in Washington, DC one day earlier that NATO should deploy “defensive assets to the region.”

“We need to step up our support for defense reforms and military modernization of Russia’s neighbors, and not just of Ukraine, but also Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan,” Vershbow said, according to the Civil Georgia site.

NATO should think about “upgrading” joint exercises among partner nations, the site quoted Vershbow as saying during the event, while acknowledging that deploying forces to Georgia would be a “controversial” maneuver.

“It is also important for the United States to show leadership… to make sure that next steps that NATO will make, for example at the summit in September, will be adequate response to what’s happening in Ukraine,” the Georgian Defense Minister Irakli Alasania said during the discussion.

“The West should now seize the opportunity and create the reality on the ground by accepting membership of aspirant countries, by putting purely defensive assets in aspirant countries and predominantly in Georgia,” Alasania added. 

“What is important now is to put some deterrent capabilities on the ground like air defense and anti-armor capabilities that will give us a chance to defend our freedom, because we know that if things go wrong at this point no one is coming to save us; we’ve seen that in 2008.”

Earlier this week, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said the builduip of NATO troops near Russia’s border was “unprecedented.” Weeks earlier, the US Air Force commander in charge of NATO’s military presence in Europe said that US troops may soon be deployed to the region as tensions continue to worsen near the border between Ukraine and Russia.

For weeks now, officials in Washington and Kiev have claimed that the recent separation of Crimea from Ukraine and the rash of uprisings in the country’s eastern part are the direct result of destabilization efforts spearheaded by Moscow, and both the US and European Union have introduced several rounds of sanctions against Russia as a result. The Kremlin has refuted these claims and rebuffed the sanctions, however, and earlier this week Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin accused the White House of orchestrating the Ukrainian crisis.

“I think what is happening now shows us who really was mastering the process from the beginning. But in the beginning, the United States preferred to remain in the shadow,” Putin said this week.

Russia and China Announce Joint Naval Drills as NATO Declares Russia an Enemy

_{Now that NATO has declared Russia an adversary where does that leave China (Russia's closest ally)?}

SKF News,

1 May, 2014

Today NATO's second in command, Alexander Vershbow, declared that Russia is now to be categorized as an enemy.

"Clearly the Russians have declared NATO as an adversary, so we have to begin to view Russia no longer as a partner but as more of an adversary than a partner," said Alexander Vershbow, the deputy secretary-general of NATO.

This statement comes as China and Russia announced that they will be carrying out joint Naval drills in the South China Sea. This show of unity sends a message on multiple levels.

Last week the Obama administration vowed to defend Japan against China in their territorial dispute over the Senkaku islands.

Related: Ukraine Sliding Towards Civil War as Kiev Desperately Clings to Power

Our commitment to Japan’s security is absolute and article five [of the security treaty] covers all territories under Japan’s administration, including the Senkaku islands,” Obama said during a joint press conference with Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe.

China, is obviously not happy about that. Nor are they happy about Washington's overall push to contain them militarily in the region. Though the Obama administration publicly denies that the recent drive to shore up alliances with China's neighbors is geared towards containment, no one is fooled (especially not Beijing).

Related: China Moves To Militarize Space

Russia's show of military solidarity obviously can't be separated from the Ukrainian crisis. This week China made a number of statements criticizing the latest round of 'sanctions' against Russia.

We believe that sanctions are inconducive to the solution of problems. On the contrary, they will escalate tensions,” China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said on Monday.

Related: What Obama's Claim that "Russia is Acting Out of Weakness" ACTUALLY Tells Us

So if NATO has declared Russia to be an enemy, and the U.S. is openly provoking China by injecting itself into territorial disputes, and beefing up its military presence in the South China Sea, how long until we start hearing the official war mongering rhetoric expanded to encompass all parties in the 'axis of evil'? Answer: ASAPE (As Soon As Politically Expedient).

Pentagon Admits "No Solution" To Replace Russian Rockets To Launch US Military Satellites

Zero Hedge,

1 May, 2014,

While the US is quick to demand the rest of the world turn its economic back on Russia - especially the Europeans, it appears they are discovering - just as Putin warned, the world is considerably more inter-dependent than they thought. Following Chuck Hagel's orders to review the Air Force reliance on Russian rocket engines used to launch US military satellites, Bloomberg reports the Pentagon admits it "has no great solution" to reduce its dependence on the Russian-made engine.

As Bloomberg reports,    

The Pentagon has no “great solution” to reduce its dependence on a Russian-made engine that powers the rocket used to launch U.S. military satellites, the Defense Department’s top weapons buyer said.

 

“We don’t have a great solution,” Frank Kendall, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition, said yesterday after testifying before a Senate committee. “We haven’t made any decisions yet.”

 

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel ordered the Air Force to review its reliance on the rocket engine after tensions over Russia’s takeover of Ukraine’s Crimea region prompted questions from lawmakers about that long-time supply connection.

 

United Launch Alliance LLC, a partnership of Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing Co., uses the Russian-made RD-180 engine on Atlas V rockets.

As Putin warned - apparently correctly...

“The US is certainly one of the world’s leaders. At some point it seemed that it was the only leader and a uni-polar system was in place. Today it appears that is not the case. Everything in the world is interdependent and once you try to punish someone, in the end you will cut off your nose to spite your face,” he said.

Russia: Answering words with words; actions with actions

Dmitry Rogozin: sanctions against Russian space program substitute their U.S. astronauts to the ISS

Дмитрий Рогозин: Санкциями против российской космической программы США подставляют своих космонавтов на МКС

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said that everything was just tired of the sanctions that the United States continue to impose against Russia. He wonders, do the Americans do not realize that the sanctions are "boomerang" will affect them

RT (Russian)

29 April, 2014

At a meeting with reporters in Simferopol Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said that by introducing sanctions against Russia , the Americans substituted its astronauts to the ISS, as any gun restrictions affect U.S. residents.

"His sanctions they, frankly, have already got, without even realizing that the sanctions are" boomerang "hit on him by" - the words of the Russian official Interfax.

In particular, Rogozin mentioned rocket science, it is this area, he said, the Americans want to "clean up." "If they want to strike at Russian rocketry, they are automatically" boomerang " substitute its astronauts to the International Space Station ", - says Dmitry Rogozin.

He also stressed in space sanctions hit not Russia, and the European Space Agency, which produces satellites element base in Russia. "And now these satellites are not wanted," - concluded the Deputy Prime Minister.

Earlier today, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that in the near future the United States may proceed to the fourth phase of sanctions against Russia. This implies restrictions work with entire sectors of the economy such as energy, financial and defense.

U.S. Space Restrictions on Russia May Strike Back

Moscow Times,

29 April, 2014

With the latest restrictions on high-technology defense articles and services announced Monday as part of new U.S. sanctions on Russian officials and businesses over the conflict in Ukraine, Washington is playing a dangerous game that may wipe out two decades of closely cultivated commercial ties between the Russian and U.S. space industries.

The moves will have far-reaching implications for U.S. national security, a high-level U.S. space industry leader told The Moscow Times, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Considering that in 2013, Russian launch vehicles were used to transport just under half of all commercial satellites into space, the U.S. State Department may be jeopardizing national security interests in the near term, since a number of the satellites "may have Department of Defense-hosted payloads on them or have national security customers," the industry source said.

Moreover, "about half of all U.S. military communications go through commercial satellites. So there is a national security balance that is being calculated … not only in terms of economic fallout for U.S. companies and projects, but also national security concerns," she said.

Never at a loss for words, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the Russian space industry, mocked U.S. policy, saying that "they do not understand that these sanctions will boomerang back on themselves."

Rogozin also tweeted that the "the U.S. should consider getting its astronauts to the International Space Station using a trampoline."

Dmitry Rogozin ‏@Rogozin  Apr 29

Проанализировав санкции против нашего космопрома, предлагаю США доставлять своих астронавтов на МКС с помощью батута http://russian.rt.com/article/29891 

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Cutting Russia Off

The export restrictions, initially implemented in late March, prevent the sale and shipment of any U.S.-built spacecraft — including anything that uses U.S. components, such as most European-made satellites — governed by the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, or ITAR, "to the geographic country of Russia and to Russian interests," the industry official told The Moscow Times.

The term "Russian interests" is new to this round of export license restrictions, the industry source said, and "unlike other regulatory actions where there is a list and we know exactly what it includes, this is a little interpretive," making it unclear exactly what this means for the industry.

Although the license restrictions effectively prevent Russia from purchasing Western space hardware, Moscow is free to pursue commercial interaction with industries not regulated by ITAR, such as China's space industry, providing further impetus for Russia to pursue closer defense and space relations with China.

Last week, Russian Federal Space Agency chief Oleg Ostapenko said that Russia does not need Western space technology, and that their industry was self-sufficient. He also pledged deeper cooperation with China in space issues.

Wikicommons

A Proton-M rocket preparing for launch at the Baikonur Cosmodrome.

Nikolai Testoyedov, head of Information Satellite Systems, a major Russian satellite maker, told Interfax on Monday that his company is now pursuing what he called "ITAR-free" designs.

"We have no doubts that within the framework of international labor division we will successfully build spacecraft and platforms for them that will be free from ITAR restrictions," he said, adding that this could be done by developing domestic technologies and tapping into European, Chinese and U.S. hardware that is not covered by ITAR regulations.

Regardless of the Russian ability to weather these restrictions, the U.S. decision will be a significant blow to the Russian commercial launch industry — a significant source of nongovernment funding for the Russian space industry — and therefore potentially opens the door to a Russian reprisal against U.S. space efforts in the long term.

Russian Rocket Monopoly

Prime among these vulnerabilities is the U.S. dependence on a valuable Russian rocket engine — the RD-180 — that currently surpasses the capabilities of anything produced domestically. This engine is produced solely for export to U.S. customers by Russia's Energomash, a subsidiary of state-owned Energia Rocket and Space Corporation, which also owns Sea Launch, one of the companies that will be hardest hit by export license restrictions.

These engines are used to power the first stage of the Atlas V rocket, the workhorse of the U.S. launch fleet, which is frequently called upon to lift U.S. Air Force, National Reconnaissance Office and NASA payloads into orbit.

Although the U.S. has about two years worth of RD-180 engines stockpiled on American  soil, it is vulnerable to a potential Russian ban on their export. U.S.-made engines are nowhere near as capable as their Russian counterparts, and there is currently no competitor in development. Calls have recently been made on Capitol Hill to pursue a crash program to develop a U.S.-made RD-180 to no avail.

Concern that the RD-180 supplies are unreliable is buttressed by the fact that last year, the Russian Security Council openly discussed implementing an export ban on the engines in light of their value to the U.S. military and intelligence community, but with no Russian domestic demand for the RD-180s, no action along these lines has been taken.

Last week, Ostapenko said that Russia had no intention of halting exports of the RD-180, but stressed that the status of these exports depended on U.S. actions.

If Russia bans exports of the RD-180, it will be a harsh blow to U.S. national security interests.

Two Key Players

The danger comes from the impact that the license restrictions will have on the two major U.S.-Russian joint ventures responsible for selling Russian commercial launches on the international market: International Launch Services, based in Reston, Virginia and Sea Launch, based in Long Beach, California.

The U.S. government has limited these companies' access to Western customers by restricting exports on high-technology defense articles and services to Russia and "the occupied territory of Crimea" by restricting the issuance of new export licenses and moving to restrict existing ones, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement on the agency's website Monday.

U.S. launch providers such as United Launch Alliance and SpaceX have fully booked launch schedules for the next two years, and will not likely have the production capacity to meet a surge in demand.

Wikicommons

A Sea Launch Zenit rocket blasting off from its floating launch pad on the Pacific Ocean at the Earth's equator. 

The export restrictions followed a Canadian government decision last week to pull a maritime services satellite from launching aboard a Russian Soyuz rocket at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan in June.

Meanwhile, International Launch Services, or ILS, which sells commercial launches of the venerable Proton-M rocket, said that no changes have been made to their launch manifest. 

"ILS has all the necessary U.S. State Department authorizations in place to execute manifested launches through 2016. New licenses will be adjudicated on a case-by-case basis by the U.S. State Department," spokeswoman Karen Monaghan told The Moscow Times by e-mail.

"ILS is actively reaching out to key U.S. government decision-makers in order to inform them of the importance of Proton to the U.S. and international commercial satellite market," Monaghan said.

If ILS is cut off from Western launch customers, it will likely be able to stay afloat despite the U.S. export restrictions by virtue of its exclusive contracts with Russian companies such as Gazprom Space Systems.

Its survival prospects may not even ultimately be tested. Monaghan said ILS has not yet received any indication from the U.S. State Department that its existing export licenses are being revoked, and stressed that the company is pursuing its launch manifest as planned.

Sea Launch, on the other hand, is significantly more vulnerable.

Since its creation in 1995 as a joint venture between Russia's Energia, the U.S.' Boeing and two other companies, Sea Launch has successfully launched its Ukrainian-built Zenit-3SL rocket 31 times from its floating launch pad on the equator.

However, in recent years the company has fallen on hard times. 2014 was intended to be a make or break year for the company after its operations were temporarily suspended when it suffered a launch failure in January 2013.

The crisis in Ukraine has not only jeopardized Sea Launch's access to Western customers, it has also brought about a serious supply chain problem pending a complete breakdown in commercial relations between the Russian and Ukrainian space industries — a scenario that would spell an end to Sea Launch.

"Our rocket stages are manufactured in Ukraine using approximately 70 percent Russian components … so to the extent that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalates, the ability to get hardware out of our supply chain would potentially come into question," said Peter Stier, vice president of sales and marketing at Sea Launch.

The Zenit 3SL rocket is manufactured by the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau and Yuzhmash machine works in Dnipropetrovsk in Ukraine, but 70 percent of its components are manufactured by Energia in Moscow.

"Certainly in the long run cooperation between Ukraine and Russia is essential for us, for our company, in order to survive," said Stier.

RSC Energia has poured significant funding into Sea Launch, having rescued the troubled joint-venture from bankruptcy in 2010 and becoming the 95-percent majority owner of the company.

It is important to recall the rationale for all of this interdependency, the space industry source said.

"There was an original concern about the space sector and space capabilities being captured by the right countries at the end of the Cold War, and that those were not being diverted for economic gain to other more harmful customers. I think that is still an abiding concern," the source said.

Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this story incorrectly cited Interfax reporting that export license restrictions had lead to the cancellation of Luxembourg and Turkish communication satellites slated to launch aboard International Launch Services Proton-M rockets from the Baikonur Cosmodrome this summer. It has also been updated with comments from ILS clarifying that none of their launches have been cancelled as a result of U.S. State Department export license restrictions.