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What
a shock! Who ever would have thought this might happen?. LOL
Libya
faces growing Islamist threat
Diplomats
warn that militants squeezed out of Mali by western intervention are
hitting targets in Tripoli
28
April, 2013
Diplomats
are warning of growing Islamist violence against western targets in
Libya as blowback from the war in Mali, following last week's attack
on the French embassy in Tripoli.
The
bomb blast that wrecked much of the embassy is seen as a reprisal by
Libyan militants for the decision by Paris the day before to extend
its military mission against fellow jihadists in Mali.
The
Guardian has learned that jihadist groups ejected from their Timbuktu
stronghold have moved north, crossing the Sahara through Algeria and
Niger to Libya, fuelling a growing Islamist insurgency.
"There
are established links between groups in both Mali and Libya – we
know there are established routes," said a western diplomat in
Tripoli. "There is an anxiety among the political class here
that Mali is blowing back on them."
That
anxiety escalated last week after militants detonated a car bomb
outside the French embassy, wounding two French guards and a Libyan
student, the first such attack on a western target in the Libyan
capital since the end of the 2011 Arab spring revolution.
"The
armed groups we are fighting are fleeing to Libya," said Colonel
Keba Sangare, commander of Mali's army garrison in Timbuktu. "We
have captured Libyans in this region, as well as Algerians,
Nigerians, French and other European dual-nationals."
France
sent troops to Mali in January after an uprising in the north started
by the ethnic Tuareg National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad
(NMLA), named for the independent state it hopes to create.
The
impetus for this uprising came from ethnic Tuareg soldiers who had
fought alongside Muammar Gaddafi and fled south when his regime fell.
They were later augmented by jihadists from Libya and across north
Africa, who triggered international condemnation for their
destruction of ancient Sufi Muslim shrines in Timbuktu. The fear
across the Maghreb is that the French operation that has pushed them
out of the northern cities has inadvertently compounded problems
elsewhere in north Africa as jihadist units disperse.
"If
you squeeze a balloon in one part, it bulges out in another,"
said Bill Lawrence, of International Crisis Group, a political
consultancy. "There's no question that the French actions in
Mali had the effect of squeezing that balloon towards Algeria and
Libya."
Timbuktu
residents say there are links between Tuareg militants there and in
southern Libya. "There were many Tuaregs in Mali who left during
the drought of 1973 – some of them became senior figures in the
Libyan army under Gaddafi," said Mahaman Touré, 53. "I
personally know a local Tuareg who became a general under Gaddafi and
was here with the jihadists. Now they have all gone back to Libya."
Diplomats
say jihadists cross the Sahara to join cadres in Libya's eastern
coastal cities of Benghazi and Derna. Police stations in both cities
have been hit by bombings in the past few days, part of an insurgency
that threatens to undermine the country's fragile new democracy.
Chad's president, Idriss Déby, claimed at the weekend that Benghazi
was now home to training camps for Chadian rebel fighters.
"From
the perspective of an Islamist, it makes sense," said Dr Berny
Sèbe, an expert on the Sahara region from Birmingham University. "If
you are in northern Mali, the best thing that you can do is to make
your way across Niger and then into southern Libya, where there is no
state control."
Eastern
Libya has long been a base for Islamists, who launched an
unsuccessful uprising against Gaddafi in the 1990s. Their units
reappeared in the uprising two years ago, and while many have
integrated with government forces, others are campaigning for a state
ruled by clerics rather than secular politicians. Benghazi has become
a virtual no-go area for foreigners following attacks on the British,
Italian and Tunisian consulates, the fire-bombing of an Egyptian
Coptic church and the killing of US ambassador Chris Stevens in
September when militants overran the American consulate. The bombing
in Tripoli indicates that terrorism has now spread to the capital.
"Libya
suffers this Mali blowback in two ways," said a diplomat in
Tripoli. "First there are the fighters arriving here, second
there are units carrying out attacks in support of their brothers [in
Mali]."
The
result is not only being felt in Libya. In January, units from
al-Qaida in the Maghreb, an Algerian-based al-Qaida offshoot, struck
the In Amenas gas plant, killing 38 hostages, in what they said was
retaliation for the France's Mali offensive.
Ordinary
Libyans are suffering. Watching French police investigators sifting
through the mangled wreckage outside the abandoned embassy, neighbour
Emad Tillisy, a Tripoli businessman, shook his head. "This is so
bad for Libya," he said. "It is the worst message we can
send out to the world. We need to have foreigners coming here for
business, to build our country, but after this [bombing] they say 'no
thanks, have a nice day'."
Libya's
efforts to tackle the militants are restricted by the distrust felt
by much of the population for government security units, many of them
drawn from former Gaddafi-era formations. Twin rocket attacks on oil
and gas pipelines earlier this month south of Benghazi have meanwhile
sent a shudder through Libya's oil industry, almost its only export
earner.
Libya
has already piled resources into cutting the jihadist flow of men and
weapons over its southern border, declaring its entire desert region
a "free fire zone" for patrolling jets. In the south-west,
work has now finished on a 108-mile trench cut through the desert to
deter smugglers crossing into Libya.
But
experts say the Libyans face a herculean task. "To ensure that
these borders are completely sealed off is impossible – we are
talking about desert areas with mountains and very narrow valleys,"
said Sèbe.
Libya's
prime minister, Ali Zaidan, has vowed to launch a clear-out of
militias in Benghazi, but many wonder if he has enough reliable units
for the job.
In
December Washington provided drones and an Orion electronic warfare
aircraft to support government units arresting jihadist suspects in
Benghazi. It is now delivering border surveillance equipment to Libya
and setting up a base for drones in Niger, from where it can monitor
both Mali and Libya.
This
policy has its critics, who say experience in Afghanistan and Iraq
shows military action works only when coupled with a political
process that ensures the grievances of all sections of the population
are met, denying militants popular support. "A drone-only
approach to intelligence gathering can backfire," said Lawrence.
"There's always bad guys who may blow up buildings – the
question is what sea are they swimming in? The priority should be the
support of a legitimate government that reflects the aspirations of
all elements of Libyan society."
The
rise of Islamism in north Africa has spawned a galaxy of competing
jihadist organisations, with alliances as fluid as the borders they
cross. The units that staged the northern Mali uprising were drawn
from both Libyan Tuareg fighters and jihadists, despite the fact that
they fought on opposite sides in Libya's civil war. "For me,
they are all the same – the Islamists and the MNLA," said
Ahamadou Tahir, who was attacked by militants while delivering
medical supplies 60 miles north of Timbuktu. "They all have guns
and they all want to cause us harm."
