Reports: Syrian Army Begins MAJOR ASSAULT on Southern Idlib

I have no time to confirm this story so am posting it 'as is'.

DESPITE WARNINGS FROM U.S., Syrian Army Begins MAJOR ASSAULT on Southern Idlib

Hal Turner,

17 November, 2018

 

Despite being warned TWICE by the United States (September 4 and again September 7) against commencing an attack upon Idlib, Syria, the Syrian Army unleashed a major assault across the southeastern part of Idlib province on Saturday. 

According to a source, government forces pounded jihadist defenses across the southeast Idlib axis with a plethora of artillery shells and surface-to-surface missiles. This comes despite explicit U.S. insistence back in September that no offensive military operations be carried out against Idlib for fear of a massive humanitarian crisis.

This latest exchange between the Syrian military and jihadist rebels comes as the Sochi Agreement falls apart in northwestern Syria, and in response to a Friday attack by jihadists which killed 22 Syrian soldiers near a planned buffer zone around the country’s last major anti-Assad and al-Qaeda held region. The jihadist strikes resulted in the highest number of casualties for the army since the Sochi Agreement was established on September 17th.

Though the Syrian war has grown cold in terms of international spotlight and media interest since September, it is likely again going to ramp up dramatically over the next few months. 

The primary targets for the Syrian Army were the trenches and military posts for Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham in the towns of Al-Taman’ah, Khuwayn, Babulin, Haish, Jarjanaz, Um Jalal, and Mashirfah Shmaliyah. In retaliation for the Syrian Army assault, the jihadist rebels began shelling the government towns of Ma’an, Um Hariteen, and ‘Atshan.

Damascus has been critical of the Sochi deal from the start as it's criticized Turkey's role in the Russian-brokered ceasefire plan, especially as a proposed 'de-militarized' zone has failed due to jihadist insurgents still holding around 70% of the planned buffer area which they were supposed to withdraw from by mid-October. Sporadic clashes have rocked the "buffer zone" since.

Russia itself recently acknowledged the on the ground failure of the Sochi agreement even as parties officially cling to it. During a Thursday press briefing by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova admitted the following: 

We have to state that the real disengagement in Idlib has not been achieved despite Turkey’s continuing efforts to live up to its commitments under the Russian-Turkish Memorandum of September 17.

This followed Russia also recently condemning  "sporadic clashes" and "provocations" by the jihadist group HTS (the main al-Qaeda presence) in Idlib. 

Likely due to Moscow seeing the writing on the wall that all-out fighting and a full assault by government forces on Idlib will soon resume, Russian naval forces continued a show of force in the Mediterranean this week.

Russian military and naval officials announced Friday that its warships held extensive anti-submarine warfare drills in the Mediterranean. Specifically the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen conducted the exercise in tandem with deck-based helicopters near Syrian coastal waters. 

Notably, according to TASS, the warships central to the drill are "armed with eight launchers of Kalibr-NK cruise missiles that are capable of striking surface, coastal and underwater targets at a distance of up to 2,600 km."

Since September when what was gearing up to be a major Syrian-Russian assault on Idlib was called off through the Russian-Turkish ceasefire agreement, possibly in avoidance of the stated threat that American forces would intervene in defense of the al-Qaeda insurgent held province (also claiming to have intelligence of an impending government "chemical attack"), the war has largely taken a back-burner in the media and public consciousness. 

But as sporadic fighting between jihadists and Syrian government forces is reignited and fast turning into major offensive operations by government forces, the war could once again be thrust back into the media spotlight as ground zero for a great power confrontation between Moscow and Washington. 

 

HAL TURNER ANALYSIS -

 

This is dangerous.  The United States explicitly told Russia and Syria less than two months ago that any attack upon Idlib would result in the United States Armed Forces engaging to halt such an attack. On September 4 the US warning was publicly reported HERE, HERE, and HERE.   Three days later, on September 7, the US Warning was repeated, and was again publicly reported HERE, HERE and HERE. 

The reason cited by the United States was that Idlib has a large civilian population and if active warfare broke out there, it would create an almost instant Humanitarian Crisis.

Here we are, less than two months later, Russia has built up massive naval forces off the coast of Syria and equipped the Syrians with advanced S-300  air defense systems, and now the very thing that the US said would trigger an American military fight, is taking place.

It appears that both Syria and Russia are now calling our Bluff.  Will the U.S. make-good on its threat to engage, or will we weasel-out by saying something like "It's a very controlled and precise assault which will not create a humanitarian crisis?"  The jig appears to be up for the United States. 

  

We are so close to an unmitigated disaster AND OUTRIGHT WAR,  it cannot be over-stated.

If the US chooses to engage Syrian and/or Russian forces over Idlib, direct confrontation is expected to escalate very fast.

Reports: Turkey declares "military zone" on border with Idlib, Syria

Turkey Declares Border with Idlib, Syria "Military Zone" - Bars Journalists, Photos & Video for 15 days

 

Hal Turner,

14 November,2018

It appears that the end of Syria's so-called "civil war" may be upon us.  Turkey has suddenly declared a "Military Zone" along its border with Idlib Province, Syria for the next 15 days.

In and of itself, the declaration of a military zone would not normally seem strange in that war-torn region.  But what makes this strange is that Turkey is BARRING all media, all journalists and is cutting off Internet and Cellphone data-transmission capabilities, explicitly saying "No photos and No video" for the next 15 days.

People are rhetorically asking "Why" when they already believe they know: Turkey is to begin evacuating US/UK/France and "Coalition Partner" TERRORISTS they've been training, equipping, and supplying.  The US/UK/France and company do not want video or photographic proof that it is THEIR PROXIES being evacuated after wrecking an entire country, displacing literally millions of refugees and causing incalculable damage to the nation of Syria.

Turkish authorities announced the border area between Hatay province and Syria, a security and military zone for at least 15 days.

This includes the areas expanding from Afrin region in north Aleppo all the way to Idlib province border with Turkey.

During the 15 days period, no journalists are allowed in, and no photos or videos shall be posted from inside the announced military zone.

This comes as the Idlib agreement falters due to jihadists’ refusal to withdraw from the de-militarized zone.

Jihadi forces in Idlib and northern Hama have repeatedly attacked the Syrian Army positions along the frontlines.

In another context, more than 260,000 Syrian refugees have returned to Syria from Turkey, mainly to northern Aleppo countryside currently under the control of Turkish-backed rebels.

"Ibrahim" (not his real name for fear of reprisal) says "Our lives have been ruined, our people killed and our country wrecked because US President Barack Obama and Secretary Hillary Clinton wanted a natural gas pipeline to run through our country from Qatar, and President Assad said no. 

Obama and Hillary arranged with their allies to assemble a terrorist war force to overthrow our government.  America and its allies destroyed our country but still could not win. 

Why does America not arrest Obama and Clinton?  You Americans call yourselves a nation of law, but your former President and Secretary of State are war criminals.  They are state-sponsors of terrorism.  Murderers. "

Public relations persons for President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not respond to requests for comment about them being directly accused of being "State sponsors of terrorism" and "murderers."

(HT Remark: Watch this area closely for the next few days.  This could explode into something very different than anyone expects.  Turkey has a track record of being untrustworthy and cunning.  That they are sealing off the border with Idlib and declaring it a closed Military zone carries all sorts of dangerous connotations.  Stay tuned.)

Vanessa Beeley interviewed

Vanessa Beeley Interview From Syria - Israeli Attacks, Russia's Response & Idlib's Coming False Flag

"With everything going on in Syria recently, especially over the last couple days, I felt it was very important to bring you some on-the-ground coverage of what is taking place in Syria -- something you will simply not get from the bought-and-paid-for mainstream media. So joining me today, to discuss recent events, such as yesterday's Israeli attacks in Syria, and the downed Il-20 Russian plane, and the 15 Russian lives that it took with it, is Vanessa Beeley, broadcasting direct from Syria, with the truth on the ground and her insight on these events

On the Putin-Erdogan Idlib deal

Idlib deal and Israeli strikes explained by Kevork Almassian (Video)

Syriana Analysis,

18 September, 2018

Who doesn’t want to take revenge from the criminals of Idlib?

Who doesn’t want to take revenge from the perpetrators of Jisr Al-Shughour massacre which led to the killing of over 100 Syrian Army soldiers in June 2011?

I want to take revenge from every Muslim Brotherhood terrorist, the Chechens, Uzbekis, Turkistanis, Saudis,,,,

This is a normal feeling of any human being who lost his beloved ones, and because of them suffered from psychological, neurological and physical pain.

But revenge and recklessness usually lead to dire consequences.

If the existing regime had resorted to recklessness and emotional reactions as some had demanded in the early months of the war, the fate of the Syrian pyramid would have been like the fate of Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi.

But the military and political leadership in Syria is playing chess, and whoever wants to win this game has to have a long patience. Because half wrong step and your destiny is checkmate.

In Idlib, the Syrian Arab Army mobilized its forces and besieged the city from all sides. The prevailing belief was that we could impose the battle on the so-called international community, such as the battles of Eastern Ghouta and Daraa, but what happened was the US and its Western allies raised the level of threats, and here we are not talking about mere rhetoric, but rather a NATO readiness to strike strategic Syrian positions and cause great damage to the system that manages the security and military affairs of the country.

The pretext always exists: chemical weapons

Russia does not want this confrontation and that’s the right thing to do.. and the West will not give up its project.

So I think that the Russia-Turkey agreement is not a bad deal and if Turkey implements it, it could achieve a number of objectives:

1- Erdogan abandons his parallel terrorist army, meaning the most radical groups in Idlib and the taking over heavy weapons from all armed groups until 9 December in a 20KM demilitarized zone.

2- Contain NATO threat and ensure that Turkey remains close to Russia and whether we like or not, this equation serves indirectly the Syrian interests. Ankara in the arms of Washington brought us ISIS and Al-Nusra Front. Ankara, close to Moscow, resulted in the agreement of de-escalation zones, which later led to the liberation of vast areas from terrorists’ hands.

3- Solving the issue of Idlib gradually starts with pulling the heavy weapon and the separation Al-Nusra Front from smaller terror groups, which will make the latter like a dog who lost his teeth. They will bark loud without causing serious damage.

On the other hand, this agreement maintains the influence of Turkey in an area whose people echo Erdogan more than “God”.

As for the Israeli air strikes yesterday, there is not much to talk about it. The bombing has nothing to do with Idlib agreement, it is a separate issue. In my opinion, Israel is trying to deter Syria from developing its own weapon programmes, that’s why the Israeli occupation forces keep bombing research centres and arm cargos. Furthermore, Israel is preparing itself for a war with Hezbollah and it is testing the Syrian defensive abilities. It is true that officially Syria doesn’t have S300 system but we have learned from recent history that when the Syrian army uses a type of a weapon to repel Israeli attacks, that means Damascus has a more advanced weaponry which would only be used if an all-out- war erupts with Israel.

For example, if Syria is using Pantsir S1 against Israeli fighter jets, then the question is: what is the more advanced weapon that Syria is hiding for the right time?

Turkey i sin the way of the liberation of Idlib

THE LIBERATION OF IDLIB: TURKEY IS IN THE WAY, WITH RUSSIA SLOWING DOWN

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai

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Elijah Magnier,

14 September, 2018

Turkey is pushing further reinforcements of troops, commando units and tanks into the northern Syrian city of Idlib and around it, for a specific objective: to disrupt the attack against the city by the Syrian forces and their allies supported by Russia. Ankara is indeed taking advantage of the Russian slowing down of its strategy to liberate the city from jihadists (including al-Qaeda) due to the US threat to bomb the Syrian Army and government forces under that excuse of “using chemical weapons”. This “chemical weapon” has become part of the battle of Idlib, used as a tool to wage war on Syria just as the war is coming to an end.

Russia considers the Turkish reinforcements as a breach of the Astana Turkish-Russian-Iranian deal, which limited the number of observation points and the military presence around the city and rural areas of Idlib. Moreover, Russia effectively considers Turkey to be unable to fulfil its commitment to totally end the presence of jihadists, especially including the group of al-Qaeda, stationed in the city and around it. In fact, the Turkish president Erdogan has asked for an extended delay to meet the Russian and the Iranian demands related to Idlib. This delay has been rejected by the government of Damascus whose leaders believe it is counterproductive to the interests of the country (to liberate the whole of Syria) and, further, would confirm the Russian president’s hesitancy which is apparently due to the US threat.

 

Decision makers in Damascus said “Turkey has offered Russia the protection of its military base in Hmaymeem by preventing any further drone attack against it. The Russian base has been subject to over 55 armed drone attacks, all shot down by the Russian defence system around the base which is on the Syrian coast. Actually, Russia itself is prepared to attack rural Latakia in order to create a safety zone for its base and remove the presence of the jihadists who have claimed responsibility for most of the attacks. Russia has rejected the Turkish offer, asking Ankara to abide by its agreement and eliminate the Jihadists from the city using Turkish influence to avoid the attack. Damascus believes Turkey would like to annexe Idlib and is, therefore, rejecting any deal with Turkey beyond the one already signed in Astana which consisted of a commitment to “finish off” all jihadists”.

Furthermore, according to the sources, Turkey “promised to include Jabhat al-Nusra, aka Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, within one single army in Idlib to satisfy the Russian demands and show its control over the jihadists. Ankara’s troops are bringing in more military personnel – as Turkey presents it – to support all Turkish proxies in their battle against jihadists who refuse to surrender or merge with the other groups. According to recent information provided by Turkish intelligence to Russia and Iran, the Turkish army is prepared to attack any group refusing to submit to Turkey. Moreover, it seems that hundreds of jihadists have left Syria for another destination. Ankara is facilitating the exit- or else- of all jihadists: otherwise, these will have to fight and die in Idlib”.

Turkey is asking for more time, to delay the attack against Idlib for few more weeks. In the meantime, Syria’s allies are determined to control the rural area around Idlib, including rural Hama and Latakia. For this purpose, and for fear of a possible attack on Aleppo by jihadists as a way to divert the Syrian forces attack, the allies are sending large numbers of troops digging in for defensive purposes around Aleppo.

 

Syria’s allies and Damascus itself consider Russia to have slowed down the pace of its attack, thus allowing Turkey to raise concerns worldwide about the necessity of the attack on Idlib. Turkey encouraged the US to take its time to prepare its bank of objectives (targets) in Syria in the case it decides to bomb Syria. Also, it has pressed the international community, mainly the Europeans, to intervene to prevent a possible “flood of refugees and jihadists towards the continent of Europe in the case of an attack on Idlib”. Today, the two superpowers (Russia and the US) have conducted military manoeuvres in the Mediterranean facing the Syrian coast and in Syria (Tanf). So they are indeed “walking on the edge of an abyss” while flexing their muscles to each other.

 

According to my sources, Turkey “is asking for more time to solve the situation in Idlib without a fight. Also, it is proposing to solve the issue of tens of thousands of its armed Syrian proxy militants when the political reconciliation has matured. All these indicate strongly that Turkey is not willing to leave Syria”.

 

Moscow has substantial strategic interests engaged with Ankara (commercial exchange, armaments, plus facilitating and selling energy) as well as with Tehran (commerce and energy exchange- one consequence of the Turkish rejection of the US unilateral sanctions on Iran). President Erdogan is playing on this strategic relationship to stop the battle of Idlib. Nevertheless, both Russia and Iran themselves sustain a more profound strategic relationship with Syria, where the desire to put an end to the war and see all of Syria liberated is much stronger.

 

“There is no plan to attack the city of Idlib for now”, say the sources. The liberation of rural Hama, Latakia and Idlib are the main objectives. The almost two million Syrian civilians are not expected to exit to Turkey or Europe. They are invited to leave all areas which are under the control of the jihadists (mainly al-Qaeda and its partners or its armed supporters) and move into the city of Idlib under Turkish control.

What is clear so far is the certainty that President Assad is not ready to give up Idlib to President Erdogan. Assad is said to be ready to start the attack in a few weeks even alone, at the cost of dragging everybody behind him onto the battlefield.

News from Syria - 09/13/2018

The US False Flag is in Place: White Helmet Filming of “Chemical Attack” is Already Underway

Syria - Turkish Tantrum Delays Liberation Of Idleb

Moon of Alabama,

13 September, 2018

Turkey is again turning to the U.S. to achieve its aim of controlling and annexing north Syria.

 

At the Tehran summit of the Russian, Iranian and Turkish presidents, Turkey presented a (likely U.S. induced plan) for Idleb governorate:

It included:

• prolongation of the deescalation ceasefire

• 12 armed groups, including Hayat Tahrir al Sham to be disbanded

• Turkey will train a new rebel force to control Idleb under Turkish command

• Groups who resist will be targeted in counter terrorism operations

Russia and Iran rejected the plan. Idleb is controlled by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) (vid) which is an internationally banned terrorist group affiliated with al-Qaeda. Turkey had over a year to solve the HTS problem under the existing de-escaltion agreement and failed.

HTS, foreign Jihadis, as well as 'moderate' Islamists affiliated with Turkey prevent civilians from leaving and terrorize the population:

As a possible showdown approaches, the rebels have arrested and tortured people they accuse of conceding defeat, sowing fear in the local population. A doctor was recently pulled from his home at night, witnesses said. A pistachio peddler was arrested as masked men patrolled the street.
...

Monitoring groups and local residents put most of the blame on HTS, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, but say the Turkish-backed fighters have also arrested dozens of people.

...
[R]ebel groups have embarked on their wave of ­arrests, accusing those they ­detain of secret communications with government representatives. Many have been taken to secret prisons and tortured, groups documenting the arrests say.

...

“Although this is certainly why some people have been arrested, the problem now is that it is also being used by al-Nusra to arrest the people who criticize their behavior, or to arrest their opponents,” said Fadel Abdul Ghany, director of the Syrian Network for Human Rights, a monitoring group.

After the Tehran summit the Syrian and Russian operation to liberate Idleb was to commence. The troops were in place,  air as well as artillery attacks to 'shape' the battlefield were ongoing.

But Erdogan again turned on his partners and is back flirting with the U.S. he otherwise despises. In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal he  begged for U.S. and NATO help:

All members of the international community must understand their responsibilities as the assault on Idlib looms. The consequences of inaction are immense. We cannot leave the Syrian people to the mercy of Bashar Assad. 

...
It is crucial for the U.S., which has concentrated on chemical attacks, to reject its arbitrary hierarchy of death. Conventional weapons are responsible for far more deaths. But the obligation to stop the next bloodshed is not the West’s alone.  

...

If the international community, including Europe and the U.S., fail to take action now, not only innocent Syrians but the entire world stands to pay the price. Turkey has done everything in its power to stop the bloodshed next door. To ensure that we succeed, the rest of the world must set aside narrow self-interest and throw its weight behind a political solution.

At the same time Erdogan is pushing the U.S. to do his bidding in northwest Syria, he accuses the Trump administration of supporting anti-Turkish PKK/YPK terrorists in northeast Syria. Turkey also continues to insist on buying Russian air defense systems instead of a U.S. produced one.

To halt the Idleb Dawn operations Erdogan shipped new weapon supplies to insurgent groups affiliated with Turkey:

Senior rebel officials said Turkey had sent more military aid to rebels in and around the Idlib region since a summit meeting with Iran and Russia last week failed to agree a deal to avert a government offensive into the area.

...

“They pledged complete Turkish military support for a long, protracted battle,” a senior FSA commander who was privy to talks in recent days with senior Turkish officials said, requesting anonymity as he was not authorized to speak publicly.

All border areas between Idleb and Turkey are under control of HTS. It takes a share of every load that comes through the border. Turkey is effectively arming the organization it is supposed to eliminate. Turkey also sent reinforcements to its observation posts in Idleb, including tanks (vid).

Erdogan claims that he fears a new wave of refugees coming towards Turkey. He uses this to press the European Union to support his position:

Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said a refugee influx across Turkey’s borders would have international repercussions.

...
“The global community also needs to take responsibility,” Kalin said after a Cabinet meeting Tuesday. “Another migrant wave coming to Turkey at a time when we already host millions of refugees will cause other complications,” he said. “This will spread from here to Europe and other countries.”

But the concern over a new refugee wave is exaggerated and likely a diversion. The real plan seems to be much larger. Turkey wants to annex Idleb.

 
bigger (pdf)

The new Turkish 'plan' for Idleb which it offered to Russia and Iran is said to include:

• no Syrian army attacks on Turkish supported groups

• no Syrian army entry in areas controlled by Turkish supported groups

• Turkey and Russian troops are to enter to eliminate HTS

• Turkey and Russia will police the areas after HTS is cleared out

• Turkey will only leave when the Kurdish YPG, the U.S. proxy force in northeast Syria, is dismantled

  
  

The YPG in Syria, which operates as the PKK terror organization in Turkey, is under U.S. protection. It can not be disbanded. The condition Turkey sets out is unfulfillable.

Moreover Turkey is preparing a 'legal' claim on Idleb. It uses its proxies in Idleb to claim 'Ottoman' ownership of the areas they control and to installs its own state structures there:

[T]he sources confirmed to the Syrian Observatory that there are 15 villages in the south-eastern sector of Idlib countryside, in the area between Maarrat Al-Nu’man and Sinjar area, including Al-Sayyadi, Barsah, Khyara, Seraa and Saree, have been owned by the Turks, since the time of the Ottoman presence in the area, which pushed the Turks, according to the sources, to interfere strongly and bring grand military forces and large numbers of members, equipment, ammunition and vehicles in addition to fortifying their military posts stationed in Idlib, Hama and Aleppo.

...

Turkey depends to prove that it owns these areas, on titles and deeds of ownership of these villages, and what supports this claim is that Turkey deliberately established 3 observation posts in the east of the International Highway which passes through Idlib province and links between the Syrian – Turkish border and the Syrian – Jordanian border, and Turkey also depends on similar proofs to prove its ownership of other areas such as Jarabulus, Manbij and the areas where Ottoman commanders had been buried

...
Turkey will work on preventing the regime forces from starting any battle in the western countryside of Idlib, and will not allow this to happen along with requesting the factions to be completely ready in the case that any changes that may take place, while a request will be submitted to Ankara for the services and the restoration of schools, as well as a request that will be submitted about the demanding of the return of Jabal Al-Akrad and Jabal Al-Turkman and putting them under the Turkish protection and the return of their residents to them.”

The claims are of course ludicrous. The Ottoman empire is gone and the territory is internationally recognized as part of Syria.

Russia seems to be willing to give Turkey more time:

“We are saying the situation in Idlib should be settled most preferably in a peaceful way. It is possible to abstain from using military force,” Alexander Lavrentiev, Russia's Syria envoy, told reporters after talks in Geneva with U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura.

“Idlib province is...a sort of zone of responsibility of Turkey; it is their responsibility to separate the moderate opposition from the extremists, from Jabhat al-Nusra and other groups, other terrorist groups,” he said.

 

Syria and Iran will be very unhappy about this delay but they need Russia's backing to proceed.

Russia anticipates that the 'west', with the help of Turkey, will try to use the Syrian liberation of Idleb for an all-out attack on the Syrian government. The Russian Defense Ministry continues its warning of another fake a chemical incident which would be a pretext for a 'western' attack on the Syrian government. For the last 48 hours, all Syrian and Russian air attacks on the terrorists in Idleb have stopped. This is probably to prevent that such strikes are used to claim a 'chemical bombing':

Another U.S. attack on Syria would help U.S. President Trump on domestic issues, most importantly in the upcoming elections for Congress. In two weeks Trump will chair a UN Security Council meeting which he could use to propagandize against an Idelb attack. It is possible that Russia will hold back until these events are over.

For Russia this is a tricky situation. Erdogan can probably be pressured into retreat. But Russia also wants to prevent that it falls back into the U.S. fold.  The typical Russian reaction in such a situation is to hedge, to play for time and to hope that some other incident happens which then helps to turn the situation. Such an event may come sooner than expected.

This morning Erdogan called on the Turkish central bank to lower its interest rates. He believes that high interests rates drive high inflation. The Turkish Lira fell 3%. Two hours after Erdogan's call the Central Bank raised the interest rate by 625 basis points to 24% and the Lira rallied. This will over time bring down the inflation rate but Turkey's economy will stall.

Such economic turmoil increases Turkey's dependence on Russia and Iran which are the main energy suppliers to Turkey. The Central Bank move is also a threat to Erdogan's personal authority which he can not to let unanswered. But attacks on the independence of the Central Bank will bring 'western' punishment.  Who will then back him if not Russia and Iran?