Major ceasfire violation by Ukrainian army

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Ukrainian military fired at DPR territory nearly 700 times over past day

DONi News Agency

17 July, 2016

The Ukrainian security officers 692 times have fired at the DPR front-line territories over past 24 hours, reported the operative command of the Republic.

The enemy has launched 31 artillery shells of 152 mm caliber, 258 grenades of 120 mm caliber and 152 grenades of 82 mm caliber. Besides, it was fired from the IFV, grenade launchers and small arms.

According to the command, the suburbs of Gorlovka and Donetsk, the localities of Zaitsevo, Staromikhailovka, the Petrovsky district of the capital and the territory of the airport, and also Yasinovataya, Vasilyevka, Spartak, Dokuchayevsk and the southern villages of DPR – Novomaryevka, Kominternovo, Sakhanka and Leninskoye have come under fire of the AFU.

The DPR command has transferred all data on violations of the Minsk agreements to the OSCE and JCCC representatives.

DONi News Agency

Kiev wants war : the view from Novorossia

Pepe Escobar on What He Saw in Rebel East Ukraine

• "I saw refugees on the Russian side of the border, [...] whose kids, when they first came to the shelter, would duck under tables when they heard a plane in the sky."
• "I saw whole families holed up in fully decorated Soviet-era bomb shelters too afraid to go out even by daylight, traumatized by the bombings orchestrated by Kiev’s “anti-terrorist operations”.
• "I saw a modern, hard-working industrial city at least half-empty and partially destroyed but not bent, able to survive by their guts and guile with a little help from Russian humanitarian convoys."

And yet unconquered

Russia Insider,

31 March, 2015

This article originally appeared at Asia Times

I’ve just been to the struggling Donetsk People’s Republic. Now I’m back in the splendid arrogance and insolence of NATOstan.

Quite a few people – in Donbass, in Moscow, and now in Europe – have asked me what struck me most about this visit.

I could start by paraphrasing Allen Ginsberg in Howl – “I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness”.

But these were the Cold War mid-1950s. Now we’re in early 21st century Cold War 2.0 .

Thus what I saw were the ghastly side effects of the worst minds of my – and a subsequent – generation corroded by (war) madness.

I saw refugees on the Russian side of the border, mostly your average middle-class European family whose kids, when they first came to the shelter,  would duck under tables when they heard a plane in the sky.

I saw the Dylan of Donetsk holed up in his lonely room in a veterans’ home turned refugee shelter fighting the blues and the hopelessness by singing songs of love and heroism.

Dylan of Donetsk

I saw whole families holed up in fully decorated Soviet-era bomb shelters too afraid to go out even by daylight, traumatized by the bombings orchestrated by Kiev’s “anti-terrorist operations”.

Soviet-era bomb shelter

I saw a modern, hard-working industrial city at least half-empty and partially destroyed but not bent, able to survive by their guts and guile with a little help from Russian humanitarian convoys.

I saw beautiful girls hangin’ out by Lenin’s statue in a central square lamenting their only shot at fun was family parties in each other’s houses because nightlife was dead and “we’re at war”.

Donetsk girls by Lenin’s statue

I saw virtually the whole neighborhood of Oktyabrski near the airport bombed out like Grozny and practically deserted except for a few lonely babushkas with nowhere to go and too proud to relinquish their family photos of World War II heroes.

Bombed out Oktyabrski neighborhood

I saw checkpoints like I was back in Baghdad during the Petraeus surge.

I saw the main trauma doctor at the key Donetsk hospital confirm there has been no Red Cross and no international humanitarian help to the people of Donetsk.

Oktyabrski neighborhood, bombed hospital


I saw Stanislava, one of DPR’s finest and an expert sniper, in charge of our security, cry when she laid a flower on the ground of a fierce battle in which her squad was under heavy fire, with twenty seriously wounded and one dead, and she was hit by shrapnel and survived.

I saw orthodox churches fully destroyed by Kiev’s bombing.

I saw the Russian flag still on top of the anti-Maidan building which is now the House of Government of the DPR.

I saw the gleaming Donbass arena, the home of Shaktar Donetsk and a UFO in a war-torn city, deserted and without a single soul in the fan area.
I saw Donetsk’s railway station bombed by Kiev’s goons.

I saw a homeless man screaming “Robert Plant!” and “Jimmy Page!” as I found out he was still in love with Led Zeppelin and kept his vinyl copies.

I saw a row of books which never surrendered behind the cracked windows of bombed out Oktyabrski.

I saw the fresh graves where the DPR buries their resistance heroes.

I saw the top of the hill at Saur-mogila which the DPR resistance lost and then re-conquered, with a lone red-white-blue flag now waving in the wind.

Top of the hill at Saur-moglia

I saw the Superman rising from the destruction at Saur-mogila – the fallen statue in a monument to World War II heroes, which seventy years ago was fighting fascism and now has been hit, but not destroyed, by fascists.

The superman statue rising from the destruction at Saur-mogila


I saw the Debaltsevo cauldron in the distance and then I could fully appreciate, geographically, how DPR tactics surrounded and squeezed the demoralized Kiev fighters.

I saw the DPR’s military practicing their drills by the roadside from Donetsk to Lugansk.

I saw the DPR’s Foreign Minister hopeful there would be a political solution instead of war while admitting personally he dreams of a DPR as an independent nation.

I saw two badass Cossack commanders tell me in a horse-breeding farm in holy Cossack land that the real war has not even started.

I did not see the totally destroyed Donetsk airport because the DPR’s military were too concerned about our safety and would not grant us a permit while the airport was being hit – in defiance of Minsk 2; but I saw the destruction and the pile of Ukrainian army bodies on the mobile phone of a Serbian DPR resistance fъighter.

I did not see, as Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe international observers also didn’t, the rows and rows of Russian tanks and soldiers that the current Dr. Strangelove in charge of NATO, General Breedhate, sees everyday in his exalted dreams invading Ukraine over and over again.

And I did not see the arrogance, the ignorance, the shamelessness and the lies distorting those manicured faces in Kiev, Washington and Brussels while they insist, over and over again, that the entire population of Donbass, traumatized babushkas and children of all ages included, are nothing but “terra-rists”.

After all, they are Western “civilization”-enabled cowards who would never dare to show their manicured faces to the people of Donbass.

So this is my gift to them.

Just a howl of anger and unbounded contempt.

Donbass: ‘The war has not started yet’

Pepe Escobar

RT,

31 March, 2015

Two top Cossack commanders in the People's Republic of Donetsk and a seasoned Serbian volunteer fighter are adamant: the real war in Donbass has not even started.

It’s a spectacular sunset in the People’s Republic of Donetsk and I’m standing in the Cossack ‘holy land’ - an open field in a horse-breeding farm - talking to Nikolai Korsunov, captain of the Ivan Sirko Cossack Brigade, and Roman Ivlev, founder of the Donbass Berkut Veterans Union group.

Why is this Cossack ‘holy land’? They take no time to remind me of the legendary 17th century Cossack military hero Ivan Sirko, a.k.a. “The Wizard”, credited with extra-sensory powers, who won 55 battles mostly against Poles and Tatars.
Only three kilometers from where we stand a key battle at a crossroads on the ancient Silk Road called Matsapulovska Krinitsa took place, involving 3,000 Cossacks and 15,000 Tatars.

Now, at the dawn of the Chinese-driven 21st century New Silk Road - which will also traverse Russia – here we are discussing the proxy war in Ukraine between the US and Russia whose ultimate objective is to disrupt the New Silk Road.

Commander Korsunov leads one of the 18 Cossack brigades in Makeevka; 240 of his soldiers are now involved in the Ukrainian civil war – some of them freshly returned from the cauldron in Debaltsevo. Some were formerly part of the Ukrainian Army, some worked in the security business. Korsunov and Ivlev insist all their fighters have jobs, even if unpaid – and have joined the Donetsk People’s Republic army as volunteers. “Somehow, they manage to survive.”

What’s so special about Cossack fighters? “It’s historical – we’ve always fought to defend our lands.” Commander Korsunov was a miner, now he’s on a pension – although for obvious reasons he’s receiving nothing from Poroshenko’s Kiev set up; only support from the Berkut group, the Ministry for Youth and Sports of the People’s Republic, and humanitarian food convoys from Russia.

Korsunov and Ivlev are convinced Minsk 2 will not hold; fierce fighting should resume “in a matter of weeks.” According to their best military intelligence, Kiev’s army, after the recent IMF loan, was allocated no less than $3.8 billion for weapons.



Checkpoint in Donetsk. (Photo: Pepe Escobar)


“After Odessa”, they say – a reference to the massacre of civilians in May last year - Ukraine as we know it “is finished”. So what would be the best political solution for Donbass? Their priority is “to free all Ukraine from fascism.” And after victory, referenda should be held in all regions of the country. “People should vote for what they want; whether to remain in Ukraine, whether to align with Europe, or with Russia.” This implies advancing towards Western Ukraine across hostile territory; “We’re ready for five, seven years of war, it doesn’t matter.”

So even if a political solution might be possible on a distant horizon, they are preparing for a long war. The EU is “mistaken” to treat them as separatists and even terrorists. As for those elusive Russian tanks and soldiers relentlessly denounced by NATO, where are they? Hiding in the bushes? They laugh heartily – and we’re off to a countryside Cossack banquet.

Kiev wants war

Serbian fighter Dejan “Deki” Beric – a hero of the People’s Republic army, already decorated with 10 medals - fully shares the assessment of the Cossack commanders: “The real war has not started yet.”

There are 20 Serbs – all with extensive battle experience - fighting alongside the Donbass brigades. “Deki” has just returned from a secret hardcore recon mission, infiltrating enemy territory just to conclude they are bringing in fresh soldiers, bringing new technicians, and are awash with new weapons. Minsk 2 is about to the shredded to pieces.

“Deki” shows absolutely harrowing personal footage shot with his mobile phone of the People’s Republic victory at the now fully destroyed Donetsk airport; the main scene (not fully uploaded to YouTube) starts with soldiers laughing, chatting and smoking and pans to dozens of scattered, lifeless bodies of Kiev’s forces.


Burying the dead: a hero of the People's Republic of Donetsk in Saur-mogila. (Photo: Pepe Escobar)

“Deki” confirms that even before last summer Kiev might have had no less than 20,000 dead. The absolute majority of soldiers he encountered were too scared to fight; in the Debaltsevo cauldron, “they didn’t even try to fight.”

Less than two weeks ago Ukrainian Prime Minister “Yats”, cherished pal of the American Queen of Nulandistan Victoria “F**k the EU”, made no mistake war is inevitable: “Our goal is to regain control of Donetsk and Lugansk.” Of course such a wide-ranging threat is possible only when you’re sure of total support from the IMF and NATO – financial and military arms from the US government. Not to mention Capitol Hill.

NATO has no proper intel agency of its own. NATO’s military intel is gathered by American, Brit or German agents – thus politically manipulated. That’s why NATO’s current Dr. Strangelove, Gen. Breedlove – call him Breedhate – is able to relentlessly spew out the same nonsense about “columns of Russian equipment - primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops” invading Ukraine over and over again, even as OSCE observers insist they have never seen them. And neither did this columnist.

Contrary to the assessment of both Cossack commanders and “Deki”, this concise analysis contends that neither side – Kiev or the Donbass armies – is about to launch a full offensive anytime soon. Meanwhile, the People’s Republic of Donetsk is turbo-charging the political front. Foreign Minister Alexander Kofman – who confirms he’s having political discussions with members of some EU countries - says there are plans for a wide-ranging meeting in May, leading to the possible set up of an Institution of Unrecognized Nations which could include a lot of participants, from Donetsk and Lugansk to Catalonia and the Basque country.

And Kofman is adamant. He’d rather see the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as an independent country, not as part of Russia. But first, the war Kiev – and Washington - are so obsessed on winning has to end.

Pepe Escobar traveled to Donetsk at the invitation of German-based media project Europa Objektiv.

Yats calls for full alert

While the cat’s away.

Poroshenko is in Germany begging for assistance from Germany

Ukrainian Prime Minister Demands Putting Troops on Full Combat Alert

Arseny Yatsenyuk called on the Ukrainian Defense Ministry to put the armed forces on full combat alert, and to equip air-raid shelters

Sputnik News,

16 March, 2015

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk called on the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff to put troops on full combat alert Monday.

"This [situation in crisis-hit Donbas] demands the Defense Ministry and the General Staff to put Ukrainian armed forces on full combat alert," he told regional administration chiefs at a video conference.

He also called for equipping air-raid shelters.

UkrainianPrime Minister is Not Sure About His Job Duties

Yatsenyuk urged the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs and the law enforcement in particular to fight terrorism and persecute everyone, who "trenches on the lives of Ukrainians and Ukrainian independence."

Ceasefire in Ukraine's conflict-torn Donbas region was stipulated by an agreement worked out by the leaders of Russia, France, Ukraine and Germany in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, and later signed by the envoys of the independence supporters and Kiev. The ceasefire came into force on February 15.

The new Minsk agreement came in the wake of simmering tensions in Donbas that continued despite a previous truce deal signed in September 2014.

Poroshenko post- Minsk 2.0

This was never about peace for Poroshenkпo, let alone autonomy for the Donbas or federaliszation. it was about buying time and negotiating his way out of a route in Debaltseve

Poroshenko After Minsk Talks: Donbas Autonomy, Federalization Not an Option

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko has flatly rejected the idea of granting a broad autonomy to the eastern Donbas region, and of making Ukraine a federation.

Sputnik News,

12 February, 2015

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko has flatly rejected the idea of granting a broad autonomy to the eastern Donbas region, and of making Ukraine a federation.

“Ukraine was, is and will remain a unitary state. Federalization is not an option,” President Poroshenko wrote on his Facebook page in the immediate wake of the four-sided talks on ending the yearlong conflict, which wrapped up in Minsk on Thursday.

The leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany met for 16 hours trying to thrash out a peace roadmap that would ease tensions in Ukraine’s war-torn east.

After the talks it was announced that before this year is out Ukraine would change its constitution to include a clause on decentralization and a special status for the Donbas region.

On Wednesday President Poroshenko said the proposed decentralization program his government was working on had absolutely nothing to do with making Ukraine a federative state.

Ukrainian civil war - 02/04/2015

Ukraine SITREP: Debaltsevo cauldron finally closed?

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.nz/2015/02/ukraine-sitrep-debaltsevo-cauldron.html

This time this sure looks official: the Russian TV channel REN-TV  has announced that the Debaltsevo cauldron has been finally closed, just north of the city of Debaltsevo itself and not further north up the highway where this had been expected.  The same reports say that the DNR and LNR forces met, so we are not talking about holding the highway under direct artillery fire anymore, but about Novorussian forces actually digging in across the highway and truly closing it down.  Earlier this evening, Colonel Cassad was reporting the highway still not closed, but if you look at his map, you can clearly see the location where the two forces apparently joined a few hours later (right over the word ДЕБАЛЬЦЕВО).

Map from Colonel Cassad

I took a quick look at militarymaps.info and here is what I saw there:

Debaltsevo on militarymaps.info

On this map the Novorussian units have still not closed the cauldron.  Weird.

So who is right?

My gut feeling that the cauldron has probably been closed.   My guess is that the junta was so concerned about this that it sent two SU-25 to provide close air support to the surrounded junta forces (both aircraft were shot down).  This was probably a last desperate attempt to prevent the cauldron from closing.

We should know soon.

No major developments elsewhere along the line of contact.

The Saker

04.02.2015 Military Report of Novorossia. Latest news of Ukraine, DPR,LPR

04.02.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. War in Ukraine, Donbass, DPR, Russia, USA, Europe

Putin prefers a bad peace

By Israel Shamir

In February, it is a long way to the spring, lamented Joseph Brodsky, the poet. Indeed, snow still falls heavily in Moscow and Kiev as well as in the rolling steppes that form Russian-Ukrainian borderlands, but there it is tinted with red. Soldiers are loth to fight in the winter, when life is difficult anyway in these latitudes, but fighting already flared up in war-torn Donbass, and the US prepares to escalate by supplying sophisticated weapons to Kiev. Tired by the siege and by intermittent shelling, the rebels disregarded snow and took the strategic Donetsk airport. This airport with its Stalin-built tunnels, a symbol of solid Soviet defence work, presented a huge challenge for underequipped militia. Its many-leveled underground facilities were built to sustain a nuclear attack; still, the rebels, after months of fighting, flushed the enemy out and took it.

In a bigger offensive, they trapped Kiev’s troops in Debaltsevo pocket, and Kiev already sued for a cease-fire. The rebels hope to dislodge the enemy from their lands altogether; as now they hold only about one third of Donbass; but Russia’s president still gropes for brakes. He prefers a bad peace to a good war. For him, the Ukraine is important, but not a sine qua non, the only problem in the world. This attitude he shares with the American leader. There is a big difference: Russia wants peaceful Ukraine, Americans prefer one at war.

Russia would prefer to see Ukraine united, federal, peaceful and prosperous. The alternative of splitting Donbass is not very tempting: Donbass is strongly connected to the rest of Ukraine, and it is not easy to sever its ties. The war already had sent millions of refugees from Donbass and from rump Ukraine to Russia and overloaded its systems. Putin can’t cut loose and forget about Donbass – his people would not allow him anyway. A cautious man, he does not want to go to an open-ended war. So he has to navigate towards some sort of peace.

I had a meeting with a well-informed and highly-placed Russian source who shared with me, for your benefit, some inner thoughts on condition of his anonymity. Though the West is certain that Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union, actually the Russian president did everything he could to save the Ukraine from disintegration, said the source. That’s what Russia did in order to bring peace to Ukraine:

• Russia supported the West-brokered agreement of February 21, 2014, but the US still pushed for the next day (February 22) coup, or “had brokered a deal to transition power in Ukraine" , in Obama’s words.
• After the coup, the South-East Ukraine did not submit to the new Kiev regime and seceded. Still, Moscow asked the Donbass rebels to refrain from carrying out their May referendum. (They disregarded Putin’s appeal).
• Moscow recognised the results of sham May elections carried out by Kiev regime after the coup, and recognised Poroshenko as the president of the whole Ukraine – though there were no elections in the South East and opposition parties were banned from participating.
• Moscow did not officially recognise the results of November elections in Donbass, to the chagrin of many Russian nationalists.

These steps were quite unpopular in Russian society, but Putin made them to promote a peaceful solution for Ukraine. Some warlike Donbass leaders were convinced to retire. In vain: Putin’s actions and intentions were disregarded by the US and EC. They encouraged the ‘war part‎y’ in Kiev. “They never found a fault with Kiev, whatever they do”, said the source.

Peace in Ukraine can be reached through federalisation, my source told me. That’s why two most important parameters of Minsk accords (between Kiev and Donetsk) were those we never hear about: constitutional and socio-economic reforms. Russia wants to secure territorial integrity of the Ukraine (minus Crimea) but it can be achieved only through federalisation of Ukraine with a degree of autonomy being given to its regions. Its west and east speak different languages, worship different heroes, have different aspirations. They could manage together, just, if the Ukraine were a federal state, like the US or Switzerland or India.

In Minsk, the sides agreed to establish a joint commission for constitutional reforms, but Kiev regime reneged on it. Instead, they created a small and secretive constitutional committee of the Rada (Parliament). This was condemned by the Venice Commission, a European advisory body on constitutional matters. Donetsk people wouldn’t accept it, either, and it is not what was agreed upon in Minsk.

As for integration, it was agreed in Minsk to reintegrate Donbass within Ukraine. This was disappointing for Donbass (they would prefer to join Russia), but they accepted it, - while Kiev laid siege to Donbass, cut off its banks, ceased buying Donbass coal, stopped to pay pensions. Kiev troops daily shell Donetsk, a city of a million inhabitants (in peaceful times!). Instead of amnesty for rebels, as agreed in Minsk, there are more government troops pouring eastwards.

The Russians did not give up on Minsk accords. The Minsk agreements could bring peace, but they have to be implemented. Perhaps president Poroshenko of Kiev would like to, but Kiev war party with its western support will unseat Poroshenko if he goes too far. Paradoxically, the only way to force him to peace is war, - though Russia would prefer the West to put pressure on its clients in Kiev. The rebels and their Russian supporters used warfare to force him to sign Minsk accords: their offensive on Mariupol on the Black Sea was hugely successful, and Poroshenko preferred to go to Minsk in order to keep Mariupol. Since then, Kiev and Donetsk had a few cease-fires, they exchanged POWs, but Kiev refuses to implement constitutional and socio-economic demands of Minsk accord.

It does not make sense to cease fire, if Kiev uses it to regroup and attack again. Cease fire should lead to a constitutional reform, said my source, a reform negotiated in an open and transparent dialogue of the regions and Kiev. Without a reform, Donbass (or Novorussia) will go to war. So the Debaltsevo operation can be considered as a way to force Poroshenko to sue for peace.

Russia does not intend to take part in the war, or in peace negotiations, said the source. The Russians are adamant to stay out, while the Americans are equally adamant to present Russia as a side to conflict.

Meanwhile, the Russian-American relations were moved forty years back to Jackson-Vanik amendment of 1974 by the Ukraine Freedom [Support Act of 2014]. The US Secretary of State John Kerry considered this act an unfortunate development, but a temporary one. The Russians are not that optimistic: for them, the Act codified anti-Russian sanctions. The US tries to turn other states against Russia, with some success. In one sweep the German Kanzlerin Angela Merkel eliminated all organisations, structures and ties built between Germany and Russia for many years. Every visit of Joe Biden causes a conflagration.

The Russians are upset with the story of the Malaysian Boeing. In every high-level encounter with the Americans, they remind of the hysterical accusations and claims that the liner was downed by the rebels using Russian missiles. Six months passed since the tragedy; still the Americans did not present a single proof of Russian and/or rebel involvement. They did not present photos of their satellites, nor records of their AWACS aircraft hovering over Eastern Europe. My source told me that the American high-ranking officials do not insist anymore that Russians/rebels are involved, but they stubbornly refuse to apologise for their previous baseless accusations. They never say they are sorry.

Still the Americans want to play the ball. They insist that they do not seek Russian ‘surrender’, that they find the confrontation costly and unwelcome, while the US needs Russian support for dealing with Iranian nuclear programme, with removal of Syrian chemical weapons, with Palestinian problem. The Russians retort they have heard it all during the Libyan affair and aren’t impressed.

Differences of opinion between Russia and the US are big in practically every area. There is one common feature: from Syria to Donbass, Russians endorse peace, Americans push for war. Now the Russians invited some opposition figures and the government representatives from Syria for talks in Moscow. They came, talked, went away and will come again. They could probably settle but the US representatives say that they will never reconcile to Bashar Assad presidency and will fight to the last Syrian for his dismissal. It is not that Americans are bloodthirsty; war makes sense for them: every war on the globe supports the US dollar and invigorates Dow Jones, as capital seeks safe haven and finds it in the US.

They do not think about fate of Syrians who flee to Jordan - or of Ukrainians who escape to Russia in ever increasing numbers. What a shame for two wonderful countries! Syria was peaceful and prosperous, the diamond of the Middle East until ruined by the US-supported islamists; the Ukraine was the wealthiest part of the USSR, until being ruined by the US-supported far-right and oligarchs. Joseph Brodsky bitterly predicted in 1994, as the Ukraine declared its independence from Russia, that the shifty Ukrainians will still evoke Russian poetry in their mortal hour. This prophesy is about to be fulfilled.
Israel Shamir can be reached at adam@israelshamir.net

Interview with Dmitry Rogozin, Deputy PM of Russia

And yes, please do press the "cc" button if you want to see the subtitles!

Interview with Dmitry Rogozin, Deputy PM of Russia from Oceania Saker on Vimeo.

War in the Ukraine

by Alexander Mercouris

Russia Insider has published my latest piece on the course of the Ukrainian war. It is a more refined and thought through version of the piece I previously wrote on this Page.http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/02/02/3054

1. My key point is that it is not minor tactical movements that are determining the course of this war. It is the level of casualties the Ukrainian military is suffering. They were hammered in the summer and they are being hammered again now.

In my pieces for Russia Insider I quoted the number of Ukrainian military deaths on the basis of official Ukrainian documents obtained by a hacking group as 1,100 for a two week period that covered the battle for Donetsk airport. The NAF today puts the total number of Ukrainian military deaths presumably since the resumption of the fighting at 1,500. Colonel Cassad yesterday was saying that the number could be over 1,800.

The figures of 1,500 and 1,800 cover a longer period than the 1,100 in the hacked Ukrainian documents. The fact that they are all of the same order of magnitude however suggests that all these figures are reliable. If so then that that shows that my guess that the Ukrainian army is suffering deaths at a rate of several hundred a week is probably correct.

2. Of course the NAF is also currently suffering a high rate of losses. However it is clear that these are at a substantially lesser level than the Ukrainian. As I said in the Russia Insider piece an NAF spokesman put the loss ratio at 4 to 1. Colonel Cassad put the total number of NAF deaths at 600 for the same period as that of his 1,800 estimate for Ukrainian deaths. That is a 3 to 1 ratio.

I suspect that the number of NAF deaths over the last 3 weeks is higher than usual because the NAF has been on the attack for most of this period. When that stage ends after the Debaltsevo pocket is fully encircled I would guess the number will fall. By contrast as the pocket collapses the rate of deaths of Ukrainians will rise especially if the pattern of unsuccessful counterattacks the Ukrainians have a habit of launching is followed.

3. As I said in the article for Russia Insider the Ukrainian military simply cannot go on taking losses at a rate of several hundred a week. In the slugfest we are seeing it is only a matter of time before it breaks. This is especially so since I strongly suspect that I have greatly overestimated the total number of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass in my Russia Insider piece. I put the number in the same range of 60,000 or so thousand that was the case in the summer. I suspect the real total is substantially less, thus the attempted mobilisations about which in the Russia Insider piece I have much to say.

4. On the political front, the DPR/LPR are taking a very hardline in the negotiations. Specifically:

(1) they are now formally challenging Kuchma's plenipotentiary rights i.e. his right to sign agreements that formally and legally bind the junta. They are insisting that he formally be given such rights.

As I have argued before there was no doubt that Kuchma was acting on behalf of the junta when he signed the Minsk Protocol and it is fatuous to deny the fact. However the junta has repeatedly resisted pressure to formalise Kuchma's position since if they formally admit he is their representative then they formally admit they are negotiating with the NAF, which is something for political and ideological reasons they emphatically do not want to do.

(2) the NAF has said that they would agree to a new ceasefire on the basis of the actual combat line and not the line agreed in the Minsk Memorandum. This is a way of rejecting calls for a ceasefire because they know perfectly well that the junta will not agree to this. Importantly the NAF rejected a call for a temporary 7 day ceasefire in Debaltsevo today. I think this is the first time the NAF has rejected a ceasefire when it has been offered.

This is a fundamental shift from the position last spring and summer. At that time it was the NAF (and the Russians) who were repeatedly calling for a ceasefire and the junta that was ignoring such calls even as it purported to agree to them. Now the situation is reversed. There is no better indicator that the initiative has now passed to the NAF than that.

(3) The Russians are backing the NAF line. It has been completely overlooked but yesterday 2nd February 2015 Interfax carried this brief but momentous report at 20:03 hours Moscow time:

"Kremlin source: East Ukraine militias' hardline 'absolutely justifiable'"

As I have said previously, the Russians have abandoned hope of Western pressure to force the junta to negotiate. This provides further confirmation. The NAF has the green light from Moscow to see its offensive through.

(4) To understand why the Russians have given up hope of a negotiated solution consider Poroshenko's latest statement today. Even as the situation collapses around him he is continuing to reject calls for federalisation and is continuing to say that the Ukraine will remain a unitary state. As I have said previously, the ideological and political nature of the junta makes no other response possible and anyone who thinks the junta will voluntary agree a compromise is fooling himself.

5. I am not going to say anything about what looks like a gathering political crisis in Kiev because there are others who understand it better than me.
----------------Saker commentary: here is what I wrote in the comments section of Russia Insider under Alexander's analysis.Since Alexander has been so kind as to mention me I just want to say that I indeed *fully* agree with his analysis, especially when he predicts further disaster for the Ukrainian military. He is also correct when he says that the number of killed Ukrainians is a humanitarian catastrophe: we might well see something quite amazing happening - a war where there are more military casualties then civilian ones. Furthermore, I also fully agree that the decision to stop the massacre depends not on Kiev, but on Washington. This war will last as long as the US wants to keep this bleeding wound open and no amount of western "aid" (lethal or otherwise) will turn the tide in this war. The only question is how many Ukrainians will have to die for this abomination to finally stop. Even the "solution" to this war is obvious and understood by everybody: a nominally unitary Ukraine with full cultural, economic and political autonomy for *all* its regions, not only the Donbass and a full recognition of the Novorussian authorities as a equal partner for negotiations. All this nonsense about "9000 Russian troops" "invading" the Ukraine and Russia as the "aggressor country" (as the Rada says) or the nonsense about the LNR and DNR being "terrorist organizations" (official Kiev position) only delays the inevitable and will generate more useless deaths. Finally, I also agree that the US/NATO cannot and therefore will not send forces to crush the Novorussians. What US/NATO can, and will, do is provide some financial and some military aid, and lots of hot air and big empty statements and promises. That will not be enough. Alexander's analysis is flawless.

Cheers,
The Saker

На войне как на войне / War is War

На войне как на войне / War is War from Max Fadeev on Vimeo.

And yes, please do press the "cc" button if you want to see the subtitles!

Assault on the New Terminal of Donetsk International Airport, combat footage 16-18 January "Donbass under fire" documentary

Maxim is the only journalist who were at the terminal on the fisrt day of assault, he moved out to the New Terminal with "Sparta" troops to film the fights there, spent night in the New Terminal when only first and fourth floors were controlled by the militias while second and third floors were held by the UAF.

«На войне как на войне» седьмой фильм Максима Фадеева для News Front. В фильме показаны драматические события происходящие в Донецке с 15 по 18 января 2015 года. Штурм нового терминала аэропорта «Донецк» имени Сергея Прокофьева.

Уникальные кадры из гущи событий битвы за аэропорт показаны на фоне того, что происходило в городе в данный момент: спуск шахтеров в лаву, обстрелы мирных районов города РЗСО украинской армией и их последствия.

Фильм попытка передать жестокую реальность и безумие войны, показать весь ужас широкомасштабной человеческой трагедии происходящей на Донбассе изнутри, передать боль и отчаяние простых людей, заставить зрителя по-настоящему почувствовать себя среди героев фильма, испытать на себе что такое война.

If Russia is Ukraine’s enemy then why are 1.2 million Ukrainian men seeking refuge in Russia?

Ukrainian men of conscription age are seeking refuge in Russia in numbers that increased by 20,000 in one week, the press service of the Russian Federal Migration Service (FMS) said on Monday. Who is invading who?

Red Pill Times,

2 February, 2014

Is Russia invading Ukraine or Ukraine invading Russia?

Would you seek refuge in the very arms of your “enemy”?

Last time I checked 1,000 Russian troops invaded Ukraine, or was it 9,000, or 7,000. I lose count, as do the script writers for Obama, Psaki, Porky, and Yats.

Here is a number that may shock some western European and American zombies, 20,000… 

• 20,000 increase in Ukrainian men a week seeking refuge in Russia, to avoid Porky’s military draft.
• 1.193 million Ukrainian men, conscription age, now staying in Russia.
• 2.5 million Ukrainian nationals (refugees) currently being taken care of (feed, clothed, etc…) in Russia.

ITAR TASS Reports…

“About 2.5 million Ukrainian nationals, including 1.193 million men of conscription age, are staying in the territory of Russia,” the FMS told TASS. More than 850,000 people have arrived from Ukraine’s south-eastern regions.

“About 440,000 people who were forced to leave south-eastern Ukraine have applied for a refugee status, temporary shelter or temporary residence permit,” the FMS press service went on to say.

Russia has 531 temporary refugee centers in its territory for 27,000 Ukrainian refugees.

If that’s not voting with your feet (literally) than I don’t know what is!

The above numbers should help any person with half a brain figure out who the real aggressor is, and who is doing the actual invading/destabilisation.

So I ask again…would you seek refuge in the very arms of your “enemy”?

How many Ukrainian refugees are the Europeans and Americans taking care of?

How many refugee centers does Poland have set up?

I forgot, Eastern Europe prefers NATO command centers rather than refugee center.

References:

http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/775024

Ukrainian Politician Nataliya Vitrenko - Has war been declared against Russia?

Ukraine prepares a terrorist attack in Debaltsevo