Massive assault by Kiev on DPR militia positions

This is not getting wide coverage

While the Normandy Four reaffirm the peace agreement Kiev at the behest of the American cousins is ripping it up

Ukrainian tanks start massive shelling of militia positions - DPR Defense Ministry

The situation is controlled by the DPR armed forces, a ministry spokesman said

TASS,

10 April, 2015

MOSCOW, April 10. /TASS/. Ukraine’s armed forces have started massive tank shelling of positions of the militia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in the locality of Spartak from the direction of the city of Avdeyevka (the Donetsk Region) controlled by Ukrainian soldiers, the DPR Defense Ministry told the Donetsk News Agency.

"Tanks are shelling Spartak from the direction of Avdeyevka. These are provocative actions on the part of the Ukrainian armed forces," the ministry said.

The situation is controlled by the DPR armed forces, a ministry spokesman said.

Information on destruction, the death toll and the number of injured is being specified, he said.

East Ukrainian developments

Regular talks of the participants of the Trilateral Contact Group on east Ukrainian settlement comprising representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) were held in the Belarusian capital Minsk on February 10-12. Normandy Four (Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany) leaders also discussed the Ukrainian issue in Minsk then.

A 13-point Package of Measures on implementation of the September Minsk agreements was adopted at those talks.

The package in particular included an agreement on cessation of fire from February 15, withdrawal of heavy armaments, as well as measures on long-term political settlement of the situation in Ukraine, including enforcement of a special self-rule status for certain districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

Clashes between Ukrainian troops and local militias in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions during Kiev’s military operation, conducted since mid-April 2014, to regain control over parts of the breakaway territories, which call themselves the Donetsk and Lugansk People's republics, have left thousands dead and forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee Ukraine’s embattled east.

The parties to the Ukrainian conflict mediated by the OSCE agreed on a ceasefire at talks on September 5, 2014 in Minsk two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed his plan to settle the situation in the east of Ukraine. The ceasefire has reportedly been numerously violated since.

Ukraine’s parliament on September 16, 2014 adopted the law on a special self-rule status for certain districts in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions for three years. The law took effect October 18, 2014 but was then repealed by Kiev.

The Trilateral Contact Group adopted a memorandum on September 19, 2014 in Minsk. The document outlined the parameters for the implementation of commitments on the ceasefire in Ukraine laid down in the Minsk Protocol of September 5, 2014.

The nine-point memorandum in particular envisioned a ban on the use of all armaments and withdrawal of weapons with the calibers of over 100 millimeters to a distance of 15 kilometers from the contact line from each side. The OSCE was tasked with controlling the implementation of memorandum provisions.

The Contact Group’s meetings in late December 2014 and on January 31, 2015 did not bring major results and the Group had to meet again in February 2015.

Donbass restores destoyed rail link

This is a huge achievement, is it not?

Donetsk-Lugansk rail service restored after 8 months

Fort Russ,

31 March, 2015

Translated by Kristina Rus

There are good news, which somehow went unnoticed. But actually it is very important. Because it marks a new life of Donbass, its rebirth. The first steps of peaceful development.

I am very glad that the rail service between Donetsk and Lugansk has been restored. I remember when I was in Novorossia, in order to get to Donetsk from Lugansk and Alchevsk, we had to loop around narrow bypass trails in the dark of the night in a minivan - from checkpoint to checkpoint. Hoping that we won't make the wrong turn and stumble on the ukro-punishers. :) Under the seat layed the two "Mukhi", on the seat - the AK. The feeling was unforgettable. But now Debaltsevo is free. And the direct way is open.

"On March 28 from Yasinovataya-Passazhirskaya station departed the first train in 8 months, connecting Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. It departs 3 times a week through the stations Yenakiyevo, Debaltsevo, Rudakova and 14 other settlements with the last stop in Lugansk at 13.30."

And this is not a small thing. This is a huge, hard work of thousands of people. And those who freed Debaltsevo, and those who restored the rail communications and power lines.

"In response to another statement of the ATO spokesman Lysenko that UAF will leave us a "lunar surface", and as directed by the head of the Donetsk People's Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, we are ready to lay the railway on the "lunar surface", which is left after the Ukrainian army."

The Fall of Slavyansk

Roses Have Thorns - Casualties of the Ukrainian Revolution - The Fall of Slavyansk

Ukraine: News from the front - 03/21/2015

Ukraine SITREP Friday March 20th, 2015

http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-friday-march-20th-2015/

Just like the Titanic, the Ukraine is sinking faster and faster. By now, I expect that most of you must have heard of the quasi-insurrection in occupied Konstantinovka following the killing of a mother and child by a drunken Ukrainian APC crew. Accident can happen anywhere, of course, but the quasi-insurrection which took place following this accident is indicative of the rage and hostility of the local population towards their Nazi occupiers. The reaction of Kiev, however, was “picture perfect”: they blamed the accident on Russian provocateurs and flooded Konstantinovka with death squads.

Then there is the mini-war taking place between the “President” Poroshenko and the notorious Jewish oligarch Kolomoiskii over the control of Ukrtransnafta (read about it here and here). This is a clear sign of the deep process of “Somalization” taking place in which all the power in the country is divided between warlords. Kolomoiskii is probably a far more powerful figure than Poroshenko and he controls the “neo-Khazarian Ukraine” (southern Urkraine, Black Sea cost, Odessa region) and there are many who believe that he is the man who paid for the downing of MH17 (Kolomoiski admitted to this on a private video call by Skype). Still, he is ready to run should it be needed, and has therefore secured three citizenships: Ukrainian, Cypriot and Israeli.

As for the Ukrainian economy, it continues to behave like a 911 building and continues to tumble down at a free-fall acceleration.

One really amazing event took place recently. You might remember the name of the most prostituted journalist in the Ukraine, Savik Shuster, who used to be the most abject mouthpiece for the junta and who got fired (temporarily) for getting the journalist Maksim Shevchenko on air for 3 minutes. In a recent show, Shuster (who always had a fantastic talent to sense when the “winds are changing”) suddenly declared live on air:

One cannot blame Putin for what is going on with Hryvna!

One cannot blame Putin for what is going on with inflation!

One cannot blame Putin for what is going on with corruption!

One cannot blame Putin for the absence of reforms! There have been none!

No tax reform nor judicial! None!

Since Shuster has for years blamed Putin for everything and anything, no matter how ridiculous and far fetched, you can be 100% sure that if he is (yet again) changing sides it’s because he knows that the Ukie-Titanic is sinking really fast.

As for Novorussia, it is doing more or less as it was doing before. The junta forces are *still* shelling various towns and cities, and the recent assassination attempt against Givi clearly shows that the security situation is still not under control.

Finally, it is becoming more and more evident that Kiev has simply no intention of implementing the Minks 2 Agreement. That, in turn, means that yet another attack by junta forces is probably imminent, possibly preceded by a false flag.

Time has shown that at M2A Russia outmaneuvered Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko and that M2A will never be accepted by the USA, at least not as long as there is a way to re-ignite the conflict and create tensions. The position of the USA is now crystal clear: they cannot allow M2A to be implemented, but since they cannot openly forbid it, they must create as much chaos and tensions around the Ukraine in order to shift the attention to some other issue. In other words – for the USA it is “the worse, the better”. And that puts the USA at a huge advantage over the other actors as it is far easier to create chaos and violence than it is to maintain any kind of cease-fire and agree on anything.

Again, the purpose of the next resumption in hostilities will not be to “win” against Novorussia or, even less so, Russia, but to create as much violence, chaos and hysteria as to keep the focus on big headlines. I suspect that by now the USA and their Nazi allies have already understood that not only will they not get Crimea or Novorussia, but that they are now looking at an eventual but inevitable loss of the entire Ukraine. In this situation the USA has always favored the “if I can’t get it, nobody else will” strategy and they will plunge the Ukraine in the strongest possible crisis.

As for the European “leaders”, their position is exactly the one of a dog on a leash. Their master, Uncle Sam, can and does give them some length of leash to play around, but that length of leash can be shortened at any second and there is absolutely nothing the Eurocretins can do about it. Even if they do, at times, pretend like they can have an opinion of their own, the reality is that none of them will dare defy the will of the USA. They will pull on the leash, some of them will bark a little, and then they will come to heel, like the good doggies that they are.

The Saker

Assassination attempt on Givi!

20.03.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. War in Ukraine, DPR, Kiev, Kolomoiskiy, USA, Yemen

Ukrainian civil war update - 03/12/2015

Ukraine SITREP Thursday March 12th, 2015

The Vineyard of the Saker,

12 March, 2015

The main development in the Ukraine is the sharp increase in the number of visible signs of the economic collapse taking place. Prices are sky-rocketing, more and more salaries are simply unpaid, shortages are becoming more frequent and as a direct result, so are social protests. The interesting thing is that these protests are not limited to the eastern Ukraine, but are also taking place in western regions of the country. These protests includes strikes and street protests. The IMF has agreed to $17.5bn in loans to Ukraine but that will clearly not be sufficient, if only because whatever money is not stolen will be used for war. The situation is now so dire that the Ukraine purchases gas from Russia only for a couple of days in advance.

The situation is also sharply deteriorating along the line of contact where the junta forces have resumed sporadic shelling all along the frontline. It is becoming evident that the junta forces have not withdrawn their heavy weapons. DNR Foreign Minister Alexander Kofman has declared yesterday that he expected a full scale junta attack within the next two weeks. Needless to say, such an attack has exactly zero chance of success, but if it is executed in response to a false flag atrocity somewhere near the line of contact it will at least serve to distract the public from the economic disaster taking place in all of the Ukraine.

Since the Hrivna is in free fall and since Kiev has stopped paying pensions and bank operations in the Donbass, the two Novorussian republics have now switched to a multi-currency system in which the Hrivna, the Ruble, the Dollar and the Euro are all legal tender.

As was easily predicted, the Minsk 2 Agreement has now basically stalled because the junta is apparently unable (or unwilling) to withdraw its heavy weapons or engage in constitutional reforms. As a direct result of this, Russia and Novorussia are now the legal “owners” of the border between the two countries.

US military aid is slowly coming in, and officially it is limited to non-lethal aid. As I said many times, no amount of military aid will make any real difference in the military balance between the junta and Novorussia.

Finally, I am happy to announce that a representative of the Saker Community has been chosen to travel to the Donbass as part of the trip organized by the agency Europa Objectiv. God willing, this will allow us to get a daily travel report with photos and interviews. My thanks to all those who applied and sorry that you were not chosen.

The Saker

12.03.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. War in Ukraine, US, Russia, Crimea, Donbass

US National Guard Troops Are Being Sent To Ukraine

The Anti-Media,
10 March, 2015



According to Colonel Michael Foster at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, the US National Guard will be deployed to Ukraine to protect the interests of NATO and the US government.

“Before this week is up, we’ll be deploying a battalion minus… to the Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces for the fight that’s taking place. What we’ve got laid out is six United States companies that will be training six Ukrainian companies throughout the summer,” Foster said in a statement this week.

Foster says that US forces intend to stay in the region for at least six months, and that they will be assisting the Ukrainian military.

This news comes just one week after UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced that UK will also be sending military advisors to Ukraine.

Additionally, it was reported last month that the US Air Force sent a dozen A-10 Thunderbolt II attack jets and about 300 soldiers to Germany, where they will train with NATO soldiers in exersizes to prepare for conflicts in eastern Europe. The aircraft and soldiers will stay there so they are nearby if any major conflict should arise.

Ukraine complains of European embargo on armored vehicle engines

Моторный голод: Украинский ВПК столкнулся с отсутствием двигателей для техники

http://fortruss.blogspot.co.nz/2015/03/ukraine-complains-of-european-embargo.html

By Sokol_ff

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

An interesting analysis of problems associated with restoring and repairing Ukrainian AFVs, published by AUTO-Consulting.ua.

“Ukrainian defense industries have problems in supplying engines for BTRs, BRDMs, BMDs, and other military vehicles. They used to be equipped with Russian-manufactured engines, but for understandable reasons these deliveries have stopped. Attempts to find alternative suppliers abroad have likewise failed. 

According to AUTO-Consulting data, German firms MTU, Mercedes Benz, and Italian IVECO have all refused to supply engines under various pretexts. Truck manufacturer AvtoKrAZ encountered similar problems, and is now forced to look for alternatives to the Russian YaMZ engines. “Engine Hunger” may threaten not only the manufacture of new AFVs, but also the restoration of stored AFVs.

Naturally, Russian special services are at fault here too. But we have predicted an engine shortage problem already a year ago. We predicted already then that the Russian FSB will undermine engine supplies for Ukrainian vehicles. Alas, that is exactly what happened.

Even if engines are supplied, they have to be adapted to the vehicle, which takes months of engineering work. Then military units have to learn how to operate and service them, and to establish spare part reserves. Ukraine has no time for that.

President’s advisor Yuriy Biryukov wrote on his Facebook page that restoring equipment after 30 years in storage is no simple process:

There are lots of BTR hulls available. BTR-70s, not as many -80s, a few -60s. However, everything inside is rotten through. Once an BTR sits in a field for 30 years it turns into a big pile of metal. Even after tremendous restoration effort, all it can do is drive for 200-300km and die. Reasons for that are quality of spares, absence of spares, absence of technology and specialists. All of this equipment is from the ‘60s and ‘70s. It’s old and dead.

So you want to put a new diesel engine into a BTR-70?! Let’s do it! But which one? YTD-20? Where to you propose to get them? Are you aware that the experiment in equipping BTR-70s with UTD-20 engines failed spectacularly, and now 20 modernized BTR-70s are gathering dust at the 25th Brigade?

So let’s put an imported engine into a BTR-70! Do it! Buy some! Overcome the informal embargo, reach an agreement with IVECO/Mercedes/Deutz. Maybe they won’t tell you to go f*** yourselves…--concludes Biryukov.

Indeed, Ukraine does not manufacture engines suitable for AFVs. All storage facilities have been cleared out, all Russian sources of engines have been cut off. 

The only thing that’s left is buying imported engines (but there’s an informal embargo in place), or building own factory to manufacture licensed engines. But there aren’t all that many engine types suitable for AFVs. However, luckily many of them are also used in farm equipment. Incidentally, Ukrainian farm equipment manufacturers also have to buy engines “on the side.” So maybe the government should create conditions for establishing domestic engine manufacture that would deal with the shortage of engines for AFVs, tractors, and possibly also KrAZ? But that would require a far-seeing state economic policy, instead of playing with exchange rates and trying to obtain an IMF credit at all costs, only so that it can be returned to previous credдtors.”

J.Hawk’s Comment: The part about the “informal embargo” is the truly interesting aspect of the piece. Let’s face it, for all the talk about NATO arming or supplying Ukraine, it hasn’t sent much of anything useful (Saxon APCs, for example), and when it did (US counter-mortar radars), it provided them in token quantities. It’s yet another piece of evidence indicating that the EU, at any rate, does not want to see Ukraine resume fighting on the Donbass. Biryukov does not mention any US diesel engine manufacturers, but he also does not say “hey, we forgot about the Americans.” It would seem that the US is deferring to the EU on the question of rearming and re-equipping the UAF.  




The Saker assesses one year of the Maidan

First-rate analysis from the Saker with a pessimistic, though realistic prognosis. I wish I could say he was wrong but I can’t. In the time I have been following his writings the Saker has been, almost without exception, on the ball. So much more so than the people who continue to repeat ad nauseum the mantra of Putin as “the appear”

Reality is more complicated than that.

The Maidan - one year later

(Reuters / Stringer)

The Vineyard of the Saker,

21 February, 2015

Today is the first anniversary of the deal made between Yanukovich and the "opposition" and guaranteed by foreign ministers Radosław Sikorski of Poland, Laurent Fabius of France and Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany.  As we all know, the deal resulted in a withdrawal of the security forces from the Kiev city center immediately followed by an armed insurrection which overthrew the government.  Predictably, Poland, France and Germany did not object.  I won't recount all of the events which happened since this infamous day, but I think that it is important to look at what has changed in a year.  I think that it also makes sense to compare what I had predicted might happen with what actually happened simply to see if a person if a person with no access to any classified data and who is using only "open sources" for his analysis could have predicted what happened or if this was all a huge and totally unpredictable surprise.

So let's look at my predictions in a chronological order.

November 30th, 2013: in "The Gates of Hell are Opening for the Ukraine"

The supposedly "pro-Russian" Eastern Ukrainians 

They have no vision, no ideology, no identifiable future goal.  All they can offer is a message which, in essence, says "we have no other choice than sell out to the rich Russians rather than to the poor European" or "all we can get from the EU is words, the Russians are offering money".  True.  But still extremely uninspiring, to say the least.

The future of Yanukovich 

I am beginning to fear that this will all explode into a real and very dangerous crisis for Russia.  First, I am assuming that the theEurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will eventually prevail, and that Yanukovich will either fully complete his apparent "zag" and reverse his decision, or lose power.  One way or another the the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will, I think, prevail.  There will be more joyful demonstrations, fireworks and celebrations in Kiev, along with lots of self-righteous back-slapping and high-fiving in Brussels, and then the gates of Hell will truly open for the Ukraine. 

The real risks for Russia

Being drawn into the inevitable chaos and violence with will flare up all over the Ukraine (including the Crimean Peninsula), stopping or, at least, safely managing a likely flow of refugees seeking physical and economic safety in Russia and protecting the Russian economy from the consequences of the collapse of Ukrainian economy.  Russia will have to do all that while keeping its hands off the developing crisis inside the Ukraine as it is absolutely certain that the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will blame Russia for it all.  The best thing Russia could do in such a situation would be to leave the Ukrainians to their private slugfest and wait for one side or the other to prevail before trying to very carefully send out a few low-key political "feelers" to see if there is somebody across the border who has finally come to his/her senses and is capable and ready to seriously begin to rebuilt the Ukraine and its inevitable partnership with Russia and the rest of the Eurasian Union.  As long as that does not happen Russia should stay out, as much as is possible.

Sarajevo on the Dniepr

Right now, all the signs are that the Ukraine is going down the "Bosnian road" and that things are going to get really ugly.

It is hard to tell, but my sense is that when the local authorities in the southeastern Ukraine threaten not to accept any regime change in Kiev they probably do really mean it.  This very much reminds me of the repeated warnings of the Bosnian-Serbs that they would not accept to live in an Islamic state run by an rabid fanatic like Itzebegovich.  At the time, and just like today, nobody took these warnings seriously and we all know how that ended.  The big difference between Bosnia and the Ukraine is first and foremost one of dimensions: Bosnia has an area of 19,741 square miles and a population of 3,791,622 while the Ukraine has an area of 233,090 square miles and a population of 44,854,065.  That is a huge difference which make a direct foreign intervention a much more complicated endeavor. 

And Russia in all that?

I can only repeat that Russia should stay out of whatever happens in the Ukraine.  The Russian government should prepare for an influx of refugees and the Russian military should be placed on high alert to avoid any provocations or cross-border violence.  A special goal for Russia should be to use all the means possible to avoid any violence on the Crimean Peninsula because of the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol which can find itself in the position of the 14th Army in Transdniestria when it simply had not other choice than to get involved due to the high number of officers with relatives living in the republic.  If, God forbid, the nationalist try to militarily take over the Crimean Peninsula or Sevastopol I don't see how the Black Sea Fleet could stay uninvolved - that is simply impossible and this is why that situation needs to be avoided at all costs.

January 26th, 2014:  Yanukovich's latest move might make a partition of the Ukraine unavoidable:

The partition of the Ukraine is inevitable

This has, of course, not been reported in the western Ziomedia, but the eastern Ukraine is now also bubbling with political actions.  To make a long story short, the folks in the southeastern Ukraine have no desire whatsoever to let folks like Iatseniuk, Klichko or Tiagnibok rule over them.  In fact, several local assembles - including the Parliament of Crimea - have adopted resolution calling on the President to restore law and order and warning that they would never accept a "regime change" in Kiev.

March 1st, 2014: Obama just made things much, much worse in the Ukraine - now Russia is ready for war 

Russia is ready for war

Something absolutely huge has just happened in Russia: the Russian Council of the Federation, the equivalent of the US Senate, has just UNANIMOUSLY passed a resolution allowing Putin to use Russian armed forces in the Ukraine, something the Duma had requested earlier.  Before the vote took place, Russian senators said that Obama had threatened Russia, insulted the Russian people and that they demanded that Putin recall the Russian ambassador to the USA.  I have never seen such a level of outrage and even rage in Russia as right now.   I hope and pray that Obama, and his advisers, stop and think carefully about their next step because make no mistake about that RUSSIA IS READY FOR WAR.

April 23rd, 2014: The US plan for the Ukraine - a hypothesis 

The US will try to force Russia to intervene in the Donbass

The eastern Ukraine is lost no matter what. So the junta in Kiev have to pick on of the following options:

a) Let the eastern Ukraine leave by means of referendum and do nothing about it.
b) Let the eastern Ukraine leave but only after some violence.
c) Let the eastern Ukraine leave following a Russian military intervention.

Clearly, option 'a' is by far the worst.  Option 'b' is so-so, but option 'c' is very nice.  Think of it:  this option will make it look like Russia invaded the Eastern Ukraine and that the people there had no say about it.  It will also make the rest of the Ukraine rally around the flag.  The economic disaster will be blamed on Russia and the Presidential election of May 25th can be canceled due to the Russian "threat".  Not only that, but a war - no matter how silly - is the *perfect* pretext to introduce martial law which can be used to crack down on the Right Sector or anybody expressing views the junta does not like.  That is an old trick - trigger a war and people will rally around the regime in power.  Create a panic, and people will forget the real issues.

As for the USA - it also knows that the Eastern Ukraine is gone.  With Crimea and Eastern Ukraine gone - the Ukraine has exactly *zero* value to the Empire, to why not simply use it as a way to create a new Cold War, something which would be much more sexy that the Global War on Terror or the really old War on Drugs.  After all, if Russia is forced to intervene militarily NATO will have to send reinforcements to "protect" countries like Poland or Latvia just in case Putin decides to invade all of the EU.

Bottom line - the freaks in power in Kiev and the USA *know* that the eastern Ukraine is lost for them, and the purpose of the imminent attack is not to "win" against the Russian-speaking rebels or, even less so, to "win" against the Russian military, it is to trigger enough violence to force Russia to intervene.  In other words, since the East is lost anyways, it is much better to lose it to the "invading Russian hordes" than to lose it to the local civilian population.

So the purpose of the next attack will not be to win, but to lose.  That the Ukrainian military can still do.

Two things can happen to foil this plan:

1) The Ukrainian military might refuse to obey such clearly criminal orders (and becoming a target of the Russian military might help some officers make the correct "purely moral" choice).
2) The local resistance might be strong enough to draw out such an operation and have to come to a grinding halt.

Ideally, a combination of both.

So let's summarize the above:

1. Yanukovich will be overthrown.  Check
2. The Donbass will rise up.  Check
3. The Ukraine will be partitioned.  Check
4. A civil war will break out.  Check
5. The US will try to pull Russia in. Check
6. Russia will protect Crimea.  Check
7. Russia will say out of the Donbass.  Check
8. Russia will have to deal with refugees.  Check
9. The US/NATO will not intervene like in Bosnia.  Check
10. The Ukrainian economy will collapse. Check

There is one point which I did really get wrong: the people of Novorussia.  I saw them as very passive, interested only in getting paid (in Hrivnas or Rubles - doesn't matter) and with very real Russian national identity.  Here I got it very wrong, but in my defense I would say that the Russian identity of people of the Donbass was awaken by the huge military assault of Ukrainian military and by the clearly russophobic and neo-Nazi rethoric and policies of the junta.  But setting aside the motivations of the Novorussians, I did predict that the Donbass would rise up, and it did.  In fact, it looks to me like my predictions resulted in a score of 10 out of 10.

My point is not to congratulate myself (I sincerely wish my pessimistic predictions would have turned out wrong), but to demonstrate that anybody armed with a) basic knowledge of Russia and the Ukraine b) access to open sources information c) basic common sense could have made all of these predictions.

There are, however, also events which I completely failed to foresee: the amazing inability of the Ukrainian military to get anything done.  On July 1st, 2014, in a post entitled "Novorussia - Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle" I wrote:

The worst which can happen is that a lot of Novorussian defenders get killed, that the towns of Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Krasnyi Liman and others will get basically flattened and most of their inhabitants killed, that the road between Donetsk and Lugansk gets cut-off by the Ukies and that Ukie forces enter deep inside these two cities. 
I have to be honest here, there is a pretty good chance that all of the above will happen in the next 24 hours. 
If that happens, I would like to remind you all that entering into a city is one thing, taking control of it is quite another.  Think Beirut, think Grozny, think Baghdad, think Fallujah, think Gaza, think Bint Jbeil.  Even if Poroshenko announces that Donetsk and Lugansk have "fallen", this will be only a empty statement on par with Dubya's "mission accomplished".  What will *really* happen is that the type of warfare taking place will change.  Not only will it change, but the new (urban) type of warfare will almost completely negate the current huge advantage in aviation, artillery and armor of the Ukie side.  So if these cities "fall" - please do not despair. 

I hope that Novorussians will be able to resist the Ukie attack, but I also know that by all accounts the kind of firepower the junta is using now is truly huge - we are dealing with a merciless and massive attack with everything the junta could muster and we have to accept that the Novorussian Defense Forces might have to retreat deeper into the cities or even go underground.  While heroic for sure, it is not smart to stay in the open when your enemy is using Smerch and Uragan MRLS against you or even the building you are in.  During the first Chechen war the Chechen retreated deeply inside Grozny and did not even bother defending the outskirts, in part because the city center buildings were far stronger than the flimsy houses in the suburbs.  I never studied the layout of the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk, but if they are typical of the way the Soviets liked to build, then retreating into the city center and giving up the suburbs would probably make sense. 

The first defensive option is to let the Ukies enter the suburbs and then cut them off, envelop (surround) them, and then attack them.  If that works, great!  But if the Ukies clear the way with massive sustained strikes and flatten their way in, then it will become necessarily to switch to "plan B" and retreat deeper into the cities.  If the Ukie advance is multi-pronged and too fast, or if the city center defenses were not adequately prepared (for whatever reason), then plan "C" is to go more or less underground and switch to an active mobile defense centered on short but intense ambushes followed by immediate retreats.

What really happened took my by complete surprise: initially the Ukrainian forces did move in, but soon they were bogged down and then gradually surrounded by the Novorussians.  In fact, both during the junta's summer offensive and during it's winter offensive theNovorussians succeeded in crushing the Ukrainian forces even in open terrain: steppes, hills, fields and forests.  The other amazing thing which happened is that for the first time in the past 200 years there were more combatants killed on the Ukrainian side than civilians.  The German intelligences sources estimate the number of victims of this war at about 50,000.  That figure sure makes sense to me.  That kind of outcome and these kinds of figures can only be explained by a huge, truly immense, difference in combat capabilities between the junta forces and the Novorussians.  Unimpressed as I was by the Novorussian behavior in February-March I failed to imagine that this rather passive and peaceful folk would turn into formidable combatants who would so radically defeat a vastly superior force (at least on paper), not once, but twice. Even as late as October 24th, in a post entitled "What could the next Junta offensive against Novorussia look like?" I again failed to predict the almost immediate defeat of the junta's winter offensive. I wrote:

What the Ukies are preparing is rather obvious. They will pick several key axes of attack along which they will unleash a massive artillery attack. This fire preparation will serve to prepare for a push by Ukrainian armored units (this time around we can expect the Ukrainian infantry to properly defend their tanks and not the other way around). The Ukrainians will not push deep into Donetsk or Lugansk, but rather they will try to, again, cut-off and surround Donetsk in a pincer attack and then negotiate some kind of quasi-surrender by the Novorussians. At most, they will try to enter a few important suburbs. I don't expect much action around Luganks - Donetsk is far more exposed.  Now, if I am correct and this is what happens, then please understand and remember this: the correct Novorussian response to this plan is to begin by retreating. It makes no sense whatsoever for the Novorussians to sit and fight from positions which are densely covered by Ukrainian artillery strikes. During the first Ukrainian attack I was dismayed to see how many people clearly did not understand the importance retreats in warfare. The "hurray-patriots" in particular were adamant that the initial Novorussian retreat was a clear sign that, as always, "Putin had betrayed Novorussia" (when the NAF went on a long and brilliant counter-offensive, these "hurray-patriots" fell silent for a while until the moment when Moscow stopped the NAF from seizing Mariupol, at which point they resumed chanting their mantra). The fact is that retreating against a superior forces is the logical thing to do, especially if you have had the time to prepare for a two, possibly, three echelon defense. While I do not know that for a fact, this is what I expect the Novorussians have been doing during all the length of the ceasefire: preparing a well-concealed and layered defense.  My hope and expectation is that once the JRF attacks the NAF will, again, carefully retreat, pull the JFR in, and then being to gradually degrade the attacking force. I particular hope that the Russians have finally send some much needed guided anti-tank weapons through the voentorg.

I was completely wrong.  Not only did the Novorussians stop the junta offensive more or less along the line of contact, but they went on the counter-offensive where they seized the heavily fortified Donetsk airport and then the entire Debaltsevo cauldron.  To say that I am extremely impressed is an understatement.

Military analyst always tend to be very cautious and assume the worst-case, and this is how it should be when lives are at stake, but I cannot explain away my complete failure to predict the Novorussian successes by some professional inclination.  What happened is that I got the Novorussian mentality completely wrong by assuming that their initial passivity was a predictor of their ability to fight.  A fundamentally flawed and mistaken assumption.

Still, I mostly got it right and so could have done all the advisors, analysts, area specialists, etc. working for the governments involved in that crisis and I bet you they did.  But either the politicians did not want to listen, or they wanted precisely that outcome.

The shameful and utterly disgusting fact is that everything that took place was completely predictable.  In fact, Putin, Lavrov and many more Russians officials *did* try to tell everybody that the Ukrainian people were cheerfully waltzing straight into a precipice, but nobody was willing to listen.  Instead, western politicians blamed the Russians for everything, which is just about the most intellectually dishonest and hypocritical thing they could have one.

The next Ukie president?

In one year an entire country was destroyed, tens of thousands of people were murdered and millions are now left with nothing not even hope: the Ukraine is a failed state, having now gone through Dmitri Orlov's "five stages of collapse".  Kiev is in the hands of a regime of incompetent Nazi freaks and the only alternative to them looks even worse.

Make no mistake, if the Donbass is now probably safe from any future junta attacks, the risks for the rest of the rump-Ukraine are still huge and an even bigger bloodbath could happen next.

What is evident is that Poroshenko is a "goner": this sad buffoon promised peace to the Ukrainian people and instead he gave them a year long bloodbath culminating in a strategic defeat which cost the Ukrainians about half of their more or less combat capable forces.  The only thing which keeps Poroshenko in power now is the political support of the USA and the political recognition by the EU and Russia.  But the rest of the freaks in power don't care one bit about the EU or Russia and I predict that they will try to eject him at the first possibility.  When I look at list of freaks likely to succeed Poroshenko I get a knot in my stomach: if Poroshenko was a political prostitute and a spineless, incompetent imbecile, he was at least not clinically insane.  Most of his likely successors are.  As for Iats or Turchinov, I personally think that they are demoniacally possessed which is arguably even worse than being clinically insane.

In conclusion I will just say that if I believe that all the horrors of the past year were fully avoidable, I also believe that the horrors of the next, upcoming, year are not: the Ukraine has plunged over the cliff and is now heading for the very same future as Libya (another western "success story").  I hope that I am wrong and that I am missing something crucial, but I personally do not see any way to stop the implosion of the rump-Ukraine and my advise to anybody still living there would be to get out while you can.

In them meantime in Moscow there was a "anti-Maidan" demonstration planned for 10,000 people.  35,000-50,000 showed up to say "we will not forget, we will not forgive" and "no Maidan in Russia".  This anti-Maidan movement which was just formed very recently has a very bright political future because after watching the horrors right across their border and accepting close to a million refugees from the Ukraine, the vast majority of Russians want nothing to do with a Maidan-like event in Russia.  Combine that with the still 80%+ popularity of Putin in spite of western sanctions, and you will see that Russia is safe from the kind of events which happened in Kiev a year ago.

The virus which killed the Ukraine will act as a vaccine for Russia.

The Saker

Ukraine civil war update - 02/21/2015

Terrified Debaltsevo residents leave shelters after Kiev troops’ pullout

RT,

21 Febraury, 2015

As Kiev and anti-government forces in eastern Ukraine prepare for heavy artillery withdrawal and prisoner exchanges, the residents of Debaltsevo, the hotspot of the recent fighting, have plucked up courage to walk the streets of their town again.

After the Ukrainian military withdrew their forces “en mass” from war-torn Debaltsevo on Wednesday, the locals, terrified by weeks of shelling, began to crawl out of their bomb shelters, scavenging for what thousands of Kiev troops left behind – personal belongings, food or warm clothes.

Murad Gazdiev @MuradoRT

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Urban #debaltsevo completely controlled by anti-govt forces. Remaining #ukrainian units outside city.

10:04 AM - 21 Feb 2015

Murad Gazdiev @MuradoRT

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Gutted #ukrainian military checkpoint near #debaltsevo. Counted 6 destroyed tanks. Anyi-govt fighters towed 2 away

6:44 AM - 21 Feb 2015

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Residents weren’t prepared to talk to journalists for a while, but when they did it was with long pent-up bitterness.

“We would like to thank Ukraine that it made us homeless, destroyed our homes,” local women tell RT at the abandoned Ukrainian army’s military camp. “We’ve been living in basements since the summer.”

Murad Gazdiev @MuradoRT

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Damage to #debaltsevo simply horrendous. Terrified residents say panicked #ukrainian troops fired blindly

10:11 AM - 21 Feb 2015

Murad Gazdiev @MuradoRT

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HUNDREDS of destroyed and abandoned #ukrainian military APC's, vehicles and artillery pieces around #Debaltsevo

10:16 AM - 21 Feb 2015

A hospital in Debaltsevo, that served as a barracks for the Ukrainian troops and was also damaged in the street battles, became a shelter for many civilians, who had no desire to leave Donbass in search for a safer life.

“How can a person, who worked all her life, end up in a basement like a rat? I don’t understand how I could be here,” says a woman, who had been surviving in the hospital’s basement.

Murad Gazdiev @MuradoRT

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Locals search for food in overrun #ukrainian military camp. It is massive, strewn with ammo and personal belongings

10:19 AM - 21 Feb 2015

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Murad Gazdiev @MuradoRT

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Literally thousands of full ammo crates litter overrun #ukrainian positions. Saw new shoulder-launched AA missiles

10:31 AM - 21 Feb 2015

On Saturday, Kiev and anti-government forces in eastern Ukraine are planning to exchange prisoners in a continuing effort to implement the peace deal.

Over a month, the clashes around Debaltsevo claimed the lives of at least 179 Ukrainian soldiers, Yuriy Biryukov, presidential adviser and assistant to the defense minister, said on Friday. Hostages were made of 110 soldiers and 81 are missing, he wrote on his Facebook page. According to self-defense forces estimates, the Ukrainian soldiers’ death toll is nearly 3,000 people.

Murad Gazdiev @MuradoRT

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#debaltsevo hospital. Apparently used for months as barracks by #ukrainian troops. Damaged Ukrainian APC sits outside

10:33 AM - 21 Feb 2015

Murad Gazdiev @MuradoRT

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Mattresses, empty vodka bottles, RPG-18 packaging in #debaltsevo hospital formerly occupied by #ukrainian troops

10:36 AM - 21 Feb 2015

Debaltsevo is a strategic railway hub, connecting the breakaway regions of Lugansk and Donetsk. It remained a battlefield where around 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded by Donetsk People’s Republic forces, as the ceasefire failed to put an end to the ongoing violence.

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany agreed the peace deal in Minsk on February 12. To de-escalate the lingering conflict, that has taken at least 5,600 lives, according to the latest UN estimates, it introduced measures such as the ceasefire that started a week ago, a pullout of heavy weapons, and comprehensive constitutional reform by the end of the year.

A 75 year old woman picks up the scattered macaroni left after Ukrainian army in Debaltsevo. The whole war represented in one photo.

OSCE mission gets access to Debaltsevo in E. Ukraine, Kiev and militia swap prisoners

RT,

21 Febraury, 2015

The OSCE monitoring mission in eastern Ukraine has finally arrived in the town of Debaltsevo, after a local militia provided guarantees of security. At the same time Kiev and rebels in Lugansk gave independent reports of prisoner swaps.

Representatives of the OSCE special monitoring mission (SMM) in eastern Ukraine arrived at the town of Debaltsevo in the Donetsk region, the mission's spokesperson Michael Bociurkiw announced on Saturday. Access to the area, which had reportedly been a sticking point at the Minsk peace talks, and which continued to be a scene of fighting between the anti-government forces and Kiev troops, was possible with the militia's guarantees of security, Bociurkiw told Ukraine's 112 tv channel.

СММ ОБСЄ в Україні @OSCE_SMM

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Newly arrived armoured vehicles at SMM HQ in Kyiv getting readied for deployment to E Ukraine

11:03 PM - 21 Feb 2015 Ukraine, Ukraina

The observers arrived at Debaltsevo along with the International Committee of the Red Cross and several trucks, bringing food and medical supplies to the region, the OSCE spokesperson said, adding that its observers are working on a full report on the situation in the region. He also called for all sides to observe the cease fire agreement in all territories in eastern Ukraine and provide access for the mission to all its regions.

Kiev forces allegedly obstructed the OSCE mission's freedom of movement, after keeping the observers at one of the check points some 80 kilometers from Donetsk, RIA Novosti reported. Citing the mission's representatives, it was said that while at one of the check points the observers had to wait for a while to be let through, at the other security point they were denied entry by Ukrainian servicemen, due to lack of travel documents.

СММ ОБСЄ в Україні @OSCE_SMM

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HAPPENING NOW: Media briefing by Deputy Chief Monitor Alexander Hug - statement on withdrawal of heavy weapons

6:18 AM - 22 Feb 2015 Ukraine, Ukraina

On Saturday, the OSCE SMM in Ukraine also asked both sides of the conflict to provide details of their heavy weapons in order to verify their withdrawal from the area. In its statement, the SMM asked for details of "inventories of their heavy weapons; the routes along which they intend to withdraw them; or where they will be concentrated."

OSCE SMMU - Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine

Organization · 3,457 Likes

 · 5 hrs · 

STATEMENT BY THE CHIEF MONITOR OF THE OSCE SPECIAL MONITORING MISSION TO UKRAINE ON PROCESS OF VERIFICATION OF WEAPON WITHDRAWAL IN EASTERN UKRAINE

I am aware of several reports which indicate that the process of withdrawal of heavy weapons, on which the sides agreed in Minsk, is about to start. In order to verify the withdrawal – to testify to the truth that specific weapons have been and remain withdrawn – the OSCE SMM needs to know what heavy weapons the sides have, where ...

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In line with the truce, which was agreed by several world leaders in Minsk last week, the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine and military officials from Kiev conducted a prisoner of war exchange on Saturday. At least 35 prisoners from each side of the conflict were freed on neutral territory near Lugansk, the self-proclaimed Donetsk people's republic spokesperson told Ria Novosti. The Lugansk militia also reportedly planned to conduct an exchange with the government. Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko announced the release of over a hundred of Ukrainian soldiers on his Twitter.

Петро Порошенко        ✔ @poroshenko

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139 Ukrainian soldiers have been released from captivity.

7:32 AM - 22 Feb 2015

Humanitarian aid from Russia was also delivered to the town of Debaltsevo on Saturday, Interfax reported, citing Russia's Foreign Ministry official. Supplies of food, medicine and everyday necessities were delivered to the region with the help of Russia's emergency services

Kiev and the Republic exchanged two hundred prisoners, one soldier of ATO refused to return to Ukraine

МОЛНИЯ: Киев и республики обменялись двумя сотнями пленных, 1 боец АТО отказался возвращаться на Украину

Russkaya Vesna,

21 February, 2015

Ukrainian journalist Roman Hnatiuk reported the details of the exchange of prisoners, which took place on March 21.

"A long day. We are retruning wth the exchange of prisoners.

Held "in the fields" for the village Frunze Lugansk region.

According to the results: DPR gave 37 (1 refused); from Ukraine received 36. LPR gave up 103 from Ukraine, received 16 people. "

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Украинский журналист Роман Гнатюк сообщил подробности обмена пленными, который состоялся 21 марта.

«Длинный день. Возвращаемся с обмена пленными.

Проходил „в полях” за поселком Фрунзе Луганской обл.

По итогам: ДНР 37 отдала (1 отказался), от Украины получили 36. ЛНР отдала 103, от Украины получили 16 человек».