China-Japan conflict

Japan Press: "China-Japan War To Break Out In January"

Zero Hedge,

8 December, 2013

Following China's unveiling of its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, overlapping a large expanse of territory also claimed by Japan, the Japanese media has, as The Japan Times reports, had a dramatically visceral reaction on the various scenarios of a shooting war. From Sunday Mainichi's "Sino-Japanese war to break out in January," to Flash's "Simulated breakout of war over the Senkakus," the nationalism (that Kyle Bass so notably commented on) is rising. Which side, wonders Shukan Gendai ominously, will respond to a provocation by pulling the trigger? The game of chicken between two great superpowers is about to begin has begun.

Via The Japan Times,

Five out of nine weekly magazines that went on sale last Monday and Tuesday contained scenarios that raised the possibility of a shooting war.

 

...

 

First, let’s take Flash (Dec. 17), which ran a “Simulated breakout of war over the Senkakus,” with Mamoru Sato, a former Air Self-Defense Force general, providing editorial supervision. Flash’s scenario has the same tense tone as a Clancy novel, including dialog. On a day in August 2014, a radar operator instructs patrolling F-15J pilots to “scramble north” at an altitude of 65,000 feet to intercept a suspected intruder and proceeds from there.

 

Sunday Mainichi (Dec. 15) ran an article headlined “Sino-Japanese war to break out in January.” Political reporter Takao Toshikawa tells the magazine that the key to what happens next will depend on China’s economy.

 

“The economic situation in China is pretty rough right now, and from the start of next year it’s expected to worsen,” says Toshikawa. “The real-estate boom is headed for a total collapse and the economic disparities between the costal regions and the interior continue to widen. I see no signs that the party’s Central Committee is getting matters sorted out.”

 

An unnamed diplomatic source offered the prediction that the Chinese might very well set off an incident “accidentally on purpose”: “I worry about the possibility they might force down a civilian airliner and hold the passengers hostage,” he suggested.

 

In an article described as a “worst-case simulation,” author Osamu Eya expressed concerns in Shukan Asahi Geino (Dec. 12) that oil supertankers bound for Japan might be targeted.

 

“Japan depends on sea transport for oil and other material resources,” said Eya. “If China were to target them, nothing could be worse to contemplate.”

 

In an air battle over the Senkakus, the Geino article continues, superiority of radar communications would be a key factor in determining the outcome. Japanese forces have five fixed radar stations in Kyushu and four in Okinawa. China would certainly target these, which would mean surrounding communities would also be vulnerable.

 

One question that seems to be on almost everybody’s mind is, will the U.S. military become involved?

 

Shukan Gendai (Dec. 14) speculated that Chinese leader Xi Jinping might issue an order for a Japanese civilian airliner to be shot down. As a result of this, a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier would come to Japan’s aid and send up fighters to contend with the Chinese.

 

“Unlike Japan, the U.S. military would immediately respond to a radar lock-on threat by shooting down the Chinese planes,” asserts military analyst Mitsuhiro Sera. “It would naturally regard an aircraft flying overhead as hostile. They would shoot at it even if that were to risk discrediting the Obama administration.”

 

“With the creation of Japan’s National Security Council on Dec. 4, Japan-U.S. solidarity meets a new era,” an unnamed diplomatic source told Shukan Gendai. “If a clash were to occur between the U.S. and China, it would be natural for the Self-Defense Forces to provide backup assistance. This was confirmed at the ‘two-plus-two’ meeting on Oct. 3.”

 

“China is bent on wresting the Senkakus away from Japan, and if Japan dispatches its Self-Defense Forces, China will respond with naval and air forces,” Saburo Takai predicts in Flash. “In the case of an incursion by irregular forces, that would make it more difficult for the U.S. to become involved. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs would protest through diplomatic channels, but China would attempt to present its takeover as a fait accompli.

 

“China fears a direct military confrontation with the U.S.,” Takai adds. “A few days ago, two U.S. B-52s transited the ADIZ claimed by China, but the flights were not for any vague purpose. I suppose the Chinese tracked the flights on their radar, but the B-52s have electronic detection functions that can identify radar frequencies, wavelength and source of the signals. These flights are able to lay bare China’s air defense systems. It really hits home to the Chinese that they can’t project their military power.”

 

Which side, wonders Shukan Gendai, will respond to a provocation by pulling the trigger? The game of chicken between two great superpowers is about to begin.

China-Japan tension

China Re-Escalates, Deploys Warplanes To Air Defense Zone

Zero Hedge,

28 November, 2013

A few days ago, in the latest escalation over the its territorial dispute with Japan regarding several islands in the East China Sea, China unveiled a so-called "Air Defense Identification" zone, shown on the map below, which includes not only the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in question, but stretches from South Korea all the way to Taiwan, and which requires that any overflights submit their plans to Beijing in advance.

The response by Japan and the US was immediate, with Japan blasting China's retaliation to its own annexation of the Senkakus a year earlier and demonstratively neither Japan Airlines nor ANA complying with China's demands, while the US, demonstrating its allegiance to Japan, flew B-52 bombers above the Air Defense Zone.

China promptly responded to what it perceived was Western hypocrisy:

China's announcement to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone in East China Sea has drawn criticism from the United States and Japan, yet their blame is wrong.

Their logic is simple: they can do it while China can not, which could be described with a Chinese saying, "the magistrates are free to burn down houses while the common people are forbidden even to light lamps."

It is known to all that the United States is among the first to set up an air defense zone in 1950, and later more than 20 countries have followed suit, which Washington has taken for granted.

However, as soon as China started to do it, Washington immediately voiced various "concerns." U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Saturday voiced concerns over the zone, fearing it might "constitute an attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea," and a White House spokesman on Monday called the Chinese announcement over the weekend "unnecessarily inflammatory."

...

Japan set up such a zone in the 1960s and it even one-sidedly allowed the zone to cover China's Diaoyu Islands. But when China set up the zone covering the Diaoyu Islands, Tokyo immediately announced it "unacceptable" and Abe even called China's move "dangerous." It is totally absurd and unreasonable.

In one word, both Washington and Tokyo are pursuing double standards.

The latter should not come as a surprise to China, and the reason why such double standards are allowed to exist in a US superpower legacy world is because neither Japan nor the US believe China would actually dare to re-escalate further. However, in a world in which the US is no longer an undisputed superpower (especially in the aftermath of the Syrian debacle in which Putin schooled the Obama administration) that is changing.

The first clear indication that China would not just sit there and do nothing, came overnight when China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, passed through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday morning on its way to a training mission in the South China Sea.

Naturally, the training mission is just the pretext. China's long-running if dormant feud with Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, is perhaps the best proxy of US interests in the region, where thanks to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the US sells arms and provides military training to the Taiwanese armed forces. China considers US involvement disruptive to the stability of the region, and made that quite clear in 2010 when Obama announced the decision to sell $6.4 billion in military hardware to the island leading to threats of economic sanctions from the mainland.

Which is why China crossing the Straits of Taiwan for the first time with its brand new aircraft carrier is nothing short of a message to Obama. From Xinhua:

It took about 10 hours for the carrier and its four escort ships to get through the strait separating the Chinese mainland and Taiwan.

The Liaoning entered the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday afternoon after it left its home port in Qingdao of east China's Shandong Province on Tuesday for the South China Sea on a scientific and training mission.

It was escorted by two missile destroyers, the Shenyang and Shijiazhuang, and two missile frigates, the Yantai and Weifang.

The narrative gets scarier:

"During the voyage, the carrier has kept a high degree of vigilance against approaches from foreign warships and aircraft, according to Liaoning Captain Zhang Zheng. This is the first time the carrier has conducted a cross-sea training voyage and passed through the Taiwan Strait since it was commissioned into the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy in September last year, according to Zhang."

But where it gets worst is that as BBC reported minutes ago, China has not only sent a symbolic message to the US, but a very literal one to Japan and everyone else who thought China would just sit there and do nothing, when it dispatched its own warplanes over the air defense zone.

China has sent warplanes to its newly declared air defence zone in the East China Sea, state media reports.

The vast zone, announced last week, covers territory claimed by China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.

China has said all planes transiting the zone must file flight plans and identify themselves, or face "defensive emergency measures". But Japan, South Korea and the US have all since flown military aircraft through the area.

China's state news agency Xinhua quoted an air force colonel as saying the the warplanes had carried out routine patrols. The zone includes islands known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, which are claimed by Japan, China and Taiwan.

...

China's state news agency Xinhua quoted air force spokesman Col Shen Jinke as saying several fighter jets and an early warning aircraft had been deployed to carry out routine patrols as "a defensive measure and in line with international common practices".

He said the country's air force would remain on high alert and would take measures to deal with all air threats to protect national security.

In Xinhua's Chinese language version of the article, the colonel said the aircraft would "strengthen the monitoring of targets in the air defence zone and do their duty".

Concurrently, perhaps to diffuse the edge, China's propaganda machine made this latest development seem like it was all perfectly normal:

China on Thursday confirmed the smooth operation of flights over the country's newly established Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea. Everybody can see that flights over the zone have been normal and safe, Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a daily press briefing, adding that in particular, civil flights have not been impacted at all.

"We expect all sides, including aviation companies, to actively coordinate with us and jointly safeguard flight safety," Qin said, adding that aviation companies from many countries have submitted flight applications to the Chinese aviation authority.

So what happens if aviation companies do not coordinate: just how unsafeguarded will flight safety be?

What happens next: will Japan once again prod the not so sleeping dragon, and continue flying commercial (and military) airplanes over China's expanded zone of control, without preclearance with Beijing, and will the US send some more strategic bombers just to prove that Obama didn't win the Nobel peace prize for nothing?

And will then China once again re-escalate, perhaps through an "accidental" engagement with what it "vigilantly" thought was an offensive act by "foreign warships and aircraft?" resulting in a major diplomatic scandal or worse. Or will it simply, and more effectively, launch a salvo of a few hundred billion US Treasurys into the electronic ether, sending the 10 Year yield over 3% and the Fed scrambling to preserve its centrally-planned house of cards?

So, the ball is now in the court of Japan, which lately has been engaging in increasingly more desperate and irrational actions to preserve a sense of control over its imploding economy and the whole "Fukushima thing", and which means that much more entertainment is imminent.

China sends warplanes to newly established air defense zone

RT,

28 November, 2013

China confirmed that it had flown warplanes over the country’s newly established East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on Thursday, state media reported.

The zone roused controversy when it was announced last week, as it covered disputed territory claimed by China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a daily press briefing that civilian flights have not been impacted, Xinhua news agency reported. China has said that all planes flying through the zone should submit flight plans and identify themselves, or their operators would end up facing "defensive emergency measures."

We expect all sides, including aviation companies, to actively coordinate with us and jointly safeguard flight safety,” Qin said.

Earlier Thursday, Japan and South Korea, key US allies in East Asia, sent their own military aircraft into the zone's airspace in an act of defiance.

Both countries' air forces flew planes into the disputed area following a similar flight Monday by two unarmed American B-52 bombers. Neither country informed the Chinese of their plans in advance, in an apparent snub of Beijing’s claims to the airspace.

Japan’s ANA Holdings and Japan Airlines said Tuesday that they would stop submitting flight plans to Chinese aviation authorities. Both carriers had been previously informing China of flights through the recently established zone. 

Both said that they would cease to do so as of Wednesday, after Japan’s Transport Minister Akihiro Ota called the declaration of China’s defense zone “not valid at all” and urged noncompliance.

Japan and the US were outraged after Beijing declared eight uninhabited islands at the center of its ongoing territorial dispute with Tokyo to be part of China’s new aerial zone, with the Japanese Foreign Ministry saying that China’s claim to the airspace was “totally unacceptable and extremely regrettable.” 

The area is routinely patrolled by Japanese naval ships and P-3C aircraft, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said Tuesday. 

Tensions between Japan and China over the islands, which are situated in waters rich with oil, natural gas and fish, rose after the Japanese government purchased three of the islands in the group from a private Japanese owner. 

Chinese patrol ships and airplanes have since been repeatedly entering and patrolling the areas around the islands to protest the Japanese move.

Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands

US diplomatic iceberg spotted near China

the Saker

Do you remember president Bill Clinton ordered two US aircraft carrier battle groups into the Strait of Taiwan in 1996 to "send a message" to China? Well, it appears that Barack Obama, the lame-duck, spineless multi-humiliated and multi-defeated president of the US of A, just had a surge of testosterone and decided to provoke China yet again by mocking its decision to extend its air defense zone over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

The way Uncle Sam sent his usual message of imperial contempt was to send two B-52 bombers to flout the Chinese air defense zone. Not content to do something so mind-bogglingly stupid and irresponsible, the Americans also decided to make sure to add an inflammatory statement

.According to the BBC, (emphasis added): US Colonel Steve Warren at the Pentagon said Washington had "conducted operations in the area of the Senkakus". "We have continued to follow our normal procedures, which include not filing flight plans, not radioing ahead and not registering our frequencies," he said. There had been no response from China, he added. Brilliant, no? The geniuses at the Pentagon sent two strategic bombers (capable of nuclear strikes) directly into an airspace which the Chinese have just declared an "air defense identification zone" in which non-compliance with Chinese rules would trigger "emergency defensive measures", and to make sure to inflict the maximal amount of loss of face on China they have essentially mocked the Chinese for not taking any measure. I would qualify all these actions as criminally reckless and phenomenally stupid. First, imagine just for a second that the Chinese had shot down the two US bombers. Then what? Would the US, which did not even have the balls to strike Iran or Syria, attack China? The US sure could not go to the United Nations Security Council for support where they would be laughed out from the council chambers by both Russia and China and, probably most other members too. So did the Americans count on the Chinese doing the right thing? If that is the case, then the only message sent to Beijing is "Look, we are irresponsible and reckless, and we count on your sanity". This is most unlikely to impress anybody in China. Second, now that the Chinese did the smart thing and ignored the US stupidity, what has this move achieved beyond alienating China even further? One really ought to know absolutely nothing about Asia to believe that you can impose a major loss of face on a superpower like China and not have to pay dearly for it. The big difference between the US and China is that the former acts like a spoiled teenager brat with an attention and memory span in the 5-10 minutes range: "The Chinese did not attack our bombers - that must mean that we taught them a good lesson!" Wrong. The Chinese will make you pay - dearly - for each such humiliation (and God knows there have been many such humiliations the past couple of decades - remember the Chinese embassy in Belgrade?), but they will make you pay on their own time, when they decide, and that could take literally centuries. Chinese diplomats and politicians have 4,000 years of experience dealing with uneducated and uncivilized barbarians, and they know how important it is not to act in haste but with slow focused determination. And they will remember that humiliation for as long as it takes to avenge it. Third, does anybody in the Pentagon, Foggy Bottom or the White House really think that US colonies/allies in the region will be positively impressed? Of course not! Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese diplomats will be horrified to be associated with such a sorry bunch of nuke-wielding cowboys, but they will keep their mouths shut because they all know that their countries are simply vassal states of the USPACOM province of the US Empire. Lastly, what has the US proven to the rest of the world. That it is powerful? Hardly. Having lost the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, having lost control of Libya, and having been defeated by Russia and Iranian diplomats over Syria and Iran, the US is an obese and obnoxious giant but hardly a powerful one. Yes, it is reckless to send bombers literally into China's backyard (or doorstep - pick you metaphor), but recklessness is not a quality that impresses anybody in Asia, and the Americans are deeply deluded if they think that they "scared" the Chinese. The one thing that this latest US provocation has achieved is to prove to the world and, especially, Asia, the US simply does not understand the nature and purpose of diplomacy. I personally take no position whatsoever on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute itself. What I am saying is that that type of dispute can only be resolved with careful and time-consuming diplomatic negotiations and measures, and that if Japan truly wanted to get China to give up its claim on these islands the best way to do that would be to make sure that this does not involve any loss of face. But for a country that has not had an administration capable of diplomacy since the years of George Bush (senior), the kind of provocation we have just witnessed is par for the course. In conclusion, I would like to say here that US politicians are wrong to be ignorant of Hegel's dialectics and its rules. Gradual quantitative changes (over time) do eventually result in qualitative changes, and this very much applies to the Chinese military, which is currently embarked on a huge program of deep modernization and reform which, when completed, will result in a profound strategic shift in the Asian-Pacific Ocean region. In contrast to the aging and completely overstretched US armed forces, the Chinese armed forces are catching up and catching up really fast. Yes, in the 1980s the Chinese military did look at lot like the Soviet military of the late 1950s, but the economic boom of China has deeply changed this, and today the Chinese armed forces are gradually acquiring more and more 21st century characteristics; soon, they will easily surpass the capabilities of South Korea and Japan. Next, and before the folks in the White House fully understand it, the US will be facing a large and technologically equal or even superior Chinese military. China is also being very smart in forging an informal but truly strategic alliance with Russia, which, unlike the US, does every effort possible to show respect and support for its large neighbor. Should it ever come to a shooting match between the US and China, there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that Russia will offer its fullest support for China short of actually attacking US targets. In the meantime, US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said that China's extension of its air defense zone was a "destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region", while the White House said the zone was "unnecessarily inflammatory". Yeah, right. Have these cowboys ever looked into a mirror? The Saker is an anonymous blogger and occasional contributor to Asia Times Online who writes at The Vineyard of the Saker.

Senkaku islands dispute

China imposes airspace restrictions over Japan-controlled Senkaku islands

China says it is exercising self-defence right but experts say move will exacerbate tension between the two nations

The Guardian,

23 November, 2013

China has tried to establish its authority over Japanese-controlled islands in the East China sea by demanding that all aircraft flying in the region obey its rules or face "emergency defensive measures".

The East China sea air defense identification zone came into effect from 10am local time on Saturday when the Chinese defence ministry issued a map of the area, which includes the uninhabited East China sea islands.

The ministry said all aircraft entering the zone must notify Chinese authorities and warned they would be subject to emergency military measures if they did not identify themselves or obey orders.

It said it would "identify, monitor, control and react to" any air threats or unidentified flying objects coming from the sea.

"China's armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions," it added.

Any military dispute between China and Japan over the islands would involve the United States because of the terms of the second world war settlement with Japan.

Both China and Japan claim the island, which the Japanese call the Senkakus and the Chinese call the Daioyu.

"This is a necessary measure taken by China in exercising its self-defence right," a Chinese defence ministry spokesman said in a statement. "It is not directed against any specific country or target. It does not affect the freedom of overflight in the related airspace."

But Narushige Michishita, director of the security and international studies programme at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, said: "China is playing a dangerous game here. It is certainly an escalatory action and might prolong and exacerbate the ongoing tension."

Patrol ships from both countries have been shadowing each other near the islets, raising fears that a confrontation could develop into a clash.

There have also been several incidents involving military aircraft flying close to each other. In October, Chinese military aircraft flew near Japan three days in a row, and Japan scrambled fighter jets each time in response.

Protests erupted throughout China last year to denounce the Japanese government's purchase of the islands from private ownership.

In recent years, China has been embroiled in rows with several neighbouring countries including the Philippines and Vietnam over islands in the East and the South China seas. South Korea and Taiwan also claim the Senkaku islands.

The Senkakus

China Flies Bombers and Drone Near Japanese Skies

the Diplomat,

10 September, 2013

The Japanese Self-Defense Forces were on a high state of alert on September 9 ahead of the first anniversary of Japan’s controversial purchase of islets in the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu archipelago, particularly after a pair of Chinese bombers flew near Okinawa the previous day.

Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera has ordered military personnel to strengthen their surveillance around the Senkakus, which are also claimed by China and Taiwan. A source in the Japanese government indicated that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Chinese maritime enforcement could take “outstanding” action in the area on September 11, the first anniversary of the purchase.

The “nationalization” of three of the five islets comprising the Senkakus in 2012 sparked large-scale protests across China, which also claims ownership of the oil- and natural-gas-rich area. Beijing retaliated against Japan’s attempted nationalization of the islets by increasing the frequency of naval patrols in the area, raising fears of accidental clashes and escalation. 

Meanwhile, the Japanese Defense Ministry confirmed in a statement that it had scrambled fighter aircraft on September 8 to shadow two Chinese Xian H-6 bombers that were observed between the main island of southern Okinawa and Miyakojima, an area that Chinese vessels have often used to transit into the Pacific Ocean to conduct exercises. The bombers reportedly did not violate Japanese airspace.

The H-6 is based on the Soviet-built Tupolev Tu-16 Badger. A newer variant comes equipped with intermediate-range cruise missiles.

Itsunori nevertheless described the flight as “unusual” and called for vigilance two days prior to Wednesday’s anniversary. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense confirmed on Monday that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) aircraft had recently headed for the West Pacific for routine exercises, which it said were not aimed at any specific country.

Separately, Japan also confirmed that two Chinese warships — Type 054A frigates Yiyang and Changzhou — were observed approximately 100 km northeast of Miyakojima on September 9 heading from the Pacific into the East China Sea.

In another “unusual incident,” an unidentified unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was spotted near the Senkakus around noon on September 9. The Air Self-Defence Force dispatched combat aircraft to intercept the drone, whose origin has yet to be confirmed. A Defense Ministry official said the UAV, which never entered Japanese airspace, had come from the northwest and was seen returning in that direction. This was the first reported incident of this kind.

Based on image analysis and unconfirmed reports, the drone is believed to have been a BZK-005 medium/high-altitude long-range unmanned reconnaissance UAV from the PLA.

Asked to comment on the incident, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei intially said he was unaware of the situation. The PLA later confirmed that the UAV belonged to China and said it was on a routine mission.

Sino-Japanese tensions

China Conducts Live-Fire Exercises as Tensions Simmer With Japan

China performed live-fire military exercises in the East China Sea as part of drills the army said were routine, as tensions simmered with Japan over islands in the area claimed by both countries.

Bloomberg,

16 August, 2013

The military is conducting 10 days of exercises off the coast of Liaoning province, China Central Television reported on its website today, citing the People’s Liberation Army. Four Chinese ships entered Japanese waters around the islands, Japan’s coast guard said in an e-mailed statement.

The exercises risk further inflaming strains between the two countries a day after China filed a diplomatic protest yesterday over three Japanese cabinet ministers’ visit to a Tokyo shrine seen as a symbol of Japan’s past military aggression. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe opted not to visit as Japan commemorated the anniversary of its World War II defeat, sending a donation instead

Ties with China have deteriorated since Japan bought three of five of the islands. China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, left port yesterday to take part in the training, the state-run Global Times newspaper reported.

Earlier this month, China deployed ships to Japanese controlled waters around the islands for a record 28 hours, drawing a formal protest. On Aug. 14, IHS Jane’s Senior Analyst Alex Pape issued a note saying a Chinese vessel under construction, set to have a crew of 24 and a range of 12,000 nautical miles, will give China’s Coast Guard “improved stamina in ongoing territorial disputes.”

Escalation in the East China Sea

1,000 Japanese Officers To Participate In "Island Recapture" Drill In California

Zero Hedge,

23 April, 2013

More than six months since the Japanese nationalistic escalation over the disputed island chain (that shall not be named) in the East China Sea sent Sino-Japanese foreign relations to a level not seen since a particular territorial dispute over Manchuria, tensions just hit a fever pitch overnight, when an armada of eight Chinese ships entered what Japan claimed were its territorial waters

China's version of the story is that the vessels were there to monitor the activity of a flotilla of boats reportedly carrying members of a Japanese nationalist group (in what it too, naturally, views as its territorial waters). This was the most Chinese ships to enter Japanese waters near the Senkakus since the Japanese government purchased three of them from what it considers their owner last September and effectively nationalized the chain, a move China has quite vocally disputed and which has led to violent anti-Japanese demonstrations in China, as well as a wide-ranging boycott of numerous Japanese exports.

Japan promptly followed protocol and summoned the Chinese ambassador and lodged a protest over the maritime activity.

“It is extremely regrettable and unacceptable that Chinese state ships continue to engage in intrusion,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a news conference. “We are protesting strictly through our diplomatic channels.”

The intrusion came after around 10 fishing boats carrying members of a conservative political group called Ganbare Nippon left Ishigaki Island in Okinawa and headed toward the Senkakus on Monday night. Things just escalated from there when running in four formations, the eight Chinese ships monitored the Japanese ships from different angles, China said in a statement.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed to “expel by force” any Chinese landing on the islets.

“We would take decisive action against any attempt to enter territorial waters and to land,” Abe told the Diet in response to questions from lawmakers. “We would never allow” a landing.

“It would be natural for us to expel by force (the Chinese) if they were to make a landing,” he said.

Obviously, when we first read this latest incarnation of tiny David provoking a massive Goliath, we couldn't help but smile. Yet it turns out that Japan is indeed hell bent on pushing China to the limit, and then some, in this parading around with its best friend: the United States.

Moments ago Kyodo reported that Japan's Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that "about 1,000 officers of the nation's Self-Defense Forces will participate in a U.S. drill to be held in California in June involving recapturing control of an isolated island."

Did we mention the drill would be held in California?

It is quite clear what said "recaptured island" is supposed to represent. It is even clearer what the US backing and sponsorship of such a drill on US soil is supposed to telegraph to China, so we won't go into any details.

It will be the first time for SDF personnel to participate in such a drill on the U.S. mainland.

Japan's participation could trigger a backlash from China as the Defense Ministry has been strengthening its capability to protect isolated islands amid soured ties with China over territorial issues surrounding the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, experts on defense issues said.

Actually China does not need to to twitch even the smallest military muscle: all it has to do is engage in a perfectly peaceful trade blockade of Japan: halt all exports to the tiny (by comparison) and irradiated nation, while boycotting all imports from Tokyo, which in better days amounted to 20% of all external trade. 

By doing so, China assures two things: the imminent collapse of Abenomics as even a 1,000,000 Nikkei225 will do nothing at all to prevent the country from entering an energy shortage shock, even as the local manufacturing sector implodes under its own weight, losing a core export market, and be forced to dump products on local soil in the process unleashing hyperdeflation.

In other words, if China wants, it can terminate Abe's career in months. And since the entire fate of the "developed world's" banking system is now in the hands of the BOJ and the successful conclusion of its reflation experiment, China just may just have been given the perfect opportunity to take down the (G-)7 birds with one stone.

The only question is whether Beijing feels it is ready and is willing to now finally truly challenge the Western reserve currency hegemony. Or wait some more.

Either way, it is only a matter of time now.