Tsunami alert for PNG and northern Australia

TSUNAMI THREAT FOR AUSTRALIA AFTER M7.2 EARTHQUAKE

Hal Turner,

29 March, 2018

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is declaring a TSUNAMI THREAT for Northern Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) after a strong Magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck in the ocean off the coast of PNG.

 ZCZC
WEPA40 PHEB 292157
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2157 UTC THU MAR 29 2018

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

 THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
 UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
 MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

 NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
 ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
 INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

  * MAGNITUDE      7.2
  * ORIGIN TIME    2126 UTC MAR 29 2018
  * COORDINATES    5.6 SOUTH  151.6 EAST
  * DEPTH          10 KM / 6 MILES
  * LOCATION       NEW BRITAIN REGION  PAPUA NEW GUINEA


EVALUATION
----------

  * AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.2 OCCURRED IN
    THE NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA AT 2126 UTC ON
    THURSDAY MARCH 29 2018.

  * BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
    FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

  * TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 0.3 TO 1 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL
    ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME COASTS OF

      PAPUA NEW GUINEA.


  * TSUNAMI WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.3 METERS ABOVE
    THE TIDE LEVEL FOR THE COASTS OF

      SOLOMON ISLANDS.


  * ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
    AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
    FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
    AND AT LOCATIONS WITH FRINGING OR BARRIER REEFS WILL LIKELY
    BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

  * FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
    YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED IF
    NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

  * GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
    SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
    POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
    EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

  * PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
    FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
    LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

  * ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
    FOR PLACES WITHIN THREATENED REGIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
    ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
    LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
    WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

    LOCATION         REGION             COORDINATES    ETA(UTC)
    ------------------------------------------------------------
    RABAUL           PAPUA NEW GUINEA   4.2S 152.3E   2152 03/29


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

  * A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
    CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
    FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

  * IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
    THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
    OF THE SHORELINE.

  * IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
    THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

  * PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
    CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

  * THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
    THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

  * AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
    GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
    EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

  * FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
    PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

  * COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
    CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
    SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
    PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

  * COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
    BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
    NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
    AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$



NNNN

 

Seismotectonics of the New Guinea Region and Vicinity

The Australia-Pacific plate boundary is over 4000 km long on the northern margin, from the Sunda (Java) trench in the west to the Solomon Islands in the east. The eastern section is over 2300 km long, extending west from northeast of the Australian continent and the Coral Sea until it intersects the east coast of Papua New Guinea. The boundary is dominated by the general northward subduction of the Australia plate.

Along the South Solomon trench, the Australia plate converges with the Pacific plate at a rate of approximately 95 mm/yr towards the east-northeast. Seismicity along the trench is dominantly related to subduction tectonics and large earthquakes are common: there have been 13 M7.5+ earthquakes recorded since 1900. On April 1, 2007, a M8.1 interplate megathrust earthquake occurred at the western end of the trench, generating a tsunami and killing at least 40 people. This was the third M8.1 megathrust event associated with this subduction zone in the past century; the other two occurred in 1939 and 1977.

Further east at the New Britain trench, the relative motions of several microplates surrounding the Australia-Pacific boundary, including north-south oriented seafloor spreading in the Woodlark Basin south of the Solomon Islands, maintain the general northward subduction of Australia-affiliated lithosphere beneath Pacific-affiliated lithosphere. Most of the large and great earthquakes east of New Guinea are related to this subduction; such earthquakes are particularly concentrated at the cusp of the trench south of New Ireland. 33 M7.5+ earthquakes have been recorded since 1900, including three shallow thrust fault M8.1 events in 1906, 1919, and 2007.

The western end of the Australia-Pacific plate boundary is perhaps the most complex portion of this boundary, extending 2000 km from Indonesia and the Banda Sea to eastern New Guinea. The boundary is dominantly convergent along an arc-continent collision segment spanning the width of New Guinea, but the regions near the edges of the impinging Australia continental margin also include relatively short segments of extensional, strike-slip and convergent deformation. The dominant convergence is accommodated by shortening and uplift across a 250-350 km-wide band of northern New Guinea, as well as by slow southward-verging subduction of the Pacific plate north of New Guinea at the New Guinea trench. Here, the Australia-Pacific plate relative velocity is approximately 110 mm/yr towards the northeast, leading to the 2-8 mm/yr uplift of the New Guinea Highlands.

Whereas the northern band of deformation is relatively diffuse east of the Indonesia-Papua New Guinea border, in western New Guinea there are at least two small (<100,000 km²) blocks of relatively undeformed lithosphere. The westernmost of these is the Birds Head Peninsula microplate in Indonesia's West Papua province, bounded on the south by the Seram trench. The Seram trench was originally interpreted as an extreme bend in the Sunda subduction zone, but is now thought to represent a southward-verging subduction zone between Birds Head and the Banda Sea.

There have been 22 M7.5+ earthquakes recorded in the New Guinea region since 1900. The dominant earthquake mechanisms are thrust and strike slip, associated with the arc-continent collision and the relative motions between numerous local microplates. The largest earthquake in the region was a M8.2 shallow thrust fault event in the northern Papua province of Indonesia that killed 166 people in 1996.

The western portion of the northern Australia plate boundary extends approximately 4800 km from New Guinea to Sumatra and primarily separates Australia from the Eurasia plate, including the Sunda block. This portion is dominantly convergent and includes subduction at the Sunda (Java) trench, and a young arc-continent collision.

In the east, this boundary extends from the Kai Islands to Sumba along the Timor trough, offset from the Sunda trench by 250 km south of Sumba. Contrary to earlier tectonic models in which this trough was interpreted as a subduction feature continuous with the Sunda subduction zone, it is now thought to represent a subsiding deformational feature related to the collision of the Australia plate continental margin and the volcanic arc of the Eurasia plate, initiating in the last 5-8 Myr. Before collision began, the Sunda subduction zone extended eastward to at least the Kai Islands, evidenced by the presence of a northward-dipping zone of seismicity beneath Timor Leste. A more detailed examination of the seismic zone along it's eastern segment reveals a gap in intermediate depth seismicity under Timor and seismic mechanisms that indicate an eastward propagating tear in the descending slab as the negatively buoyant oceanic lithosphere detaches from positively buoyant continental lithosphere. On the surface, GPS measurements indicate that the region around Timor is currently no longer connected to the Eurasia plate, but instead is moving at nearly the same velocity as the Australia plate, another consequence of collision.

Large earthquakes in eastern Indonesia occur frequently but interplate megathrust events related to subduction are rare; this is likely due to the disconnection of the descending oceanic slab from the continental margin. There have been 9 M7.5+ earthquakes recorded from the Kai Islands to Sumba since 1900. The largest was the great Banda Sea earthquake of 1938 (M8.5) an intermediate depth thrust faulting event that did not cause significant loss of life.

Delay to relief to quake-affected Papua New Guinea

Delays in getting relief to quake affected PNG highlands: RNZ Checkpoint

It's been 10 days since a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck a remote province in Papua New Guinea, killing nearly 80 people. Affected communities are frustrated over delays in distributing relief supplies.

Another major quake in Papua New Guinea

Another massive aftershock rocks Papua New Guinea magnitude 6.7 quake is the 4th mag 6 + quake since the initial mag 7.5 struck last weekend

The Big Wobble,

6 March, 2018

Another massive aftershock rocks Papua New Guinea this afternoon, the powerful magnitude 6.7 quake is the 4th mag 6 + quake since the initial mag 7.5 struck last weekend, in all nearly 150 aftershocks have rocked the area since.

Almost 100 people have died with thousands homeless and without food and clean water.

The recovery effort has been slow as aid workers grapple with blocked roads and power outages to reach cut-off villages after the 7.5-magnitude quake struck on February 26 in the Pacific nation's mountainous interior.

Terrified locals in the Southern Highlands, Western, Enga and Hela provinces have also had to deal with more than 150 strong aftershocks, including four 6.+ magnitude tremors.

"Around 143,000 people are affected and 17,000 people have been generally displaced because their homes are either fully or partially damaged and not in a condition to live in."

Today's major quake is the 25th major quake of 2018 and the 2nd one of March.
Of the 25 major quakes reported this year, 24 of them have occurred during coronal activity on the sun.

At the same period last year, only 14 major quakes had been recorded worldwide in what was to become the lowest year this century for major quakes.

Disaster unfolding after mag 7.5 struck Papua New Guinea with 100+ strong aftershocks leaving thousands without food and water: 67 dead

7.5 earthquake strikes Papua New Guinea

Big quake strikes Papua New Guinea

Stuff,

26 February, 2018

An MP from Papua New Guinea says he is trying to verify reports that up to 10 people died in a big earthquake on Monday morning, RNZ reports. 

The magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck Papua New Guinea's Hela province, the US Geological Survey (USGS) reports.

The quake, which struck at 6.44am (NZT) was centred 89km south-southwest of Porgera, at a depth of 35km.

Local MP Manasseh Makiba told RNZ he received reports of the deaths from ExxonMobil staff, via their satellite phones, as well as people in his district on landline phones.

"The reports are coming that the earthquake was very huge, and there was some casualties. There were landslides and destruction of some properties and houses. And there were reports of some lives being lost ... about ten."

Makiba said the country's National Disaster Office is expected to dispatch a team to the area to assess the damage.

Geological Survey geophysicist Paul Caruso said the quake occurred in a rural, jungle area near a mountain range.

It wasn't immediately clear if there was damage. The USGS website had 31 reports of feeling the quake, including some saying the shaking was violent.

The earthquake was not expected to generate a tsunami, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre said.

It was followed by a magnitude 5.5 quake shortly after to the northwest.

35,000 people evacuated from volcanic eruption

Countdown! 35,000 people evacuated as Philippine province declared a state of calamity with a Mayon volcano eruption now imminent

the Big Wobble,

26 November, 2014

A central Philippine province declared a state of calamity on Tuesday as a volcano spewed lava that reached the limits of a six-km radius no-go zone and spread ash on nearby farming villages.

Mount Mayon, the most active volcano in the Philippines, continued to erupt on Tuesday forcing nearly 35,000 people to evacuate.

While the recent eruptions have been relatively weak, scientists warn that they could turn explosive at any time, according to the Associated Press.

A thick ash cloud around the volcano has made monitoring its eruptions difficult and also caused ash to settle on nearby villages.

Lava flows on Tuesday also forced police to set up checkpoints to keep tourists a safe distance from the volcano.

While currently at a level three warning, an upgrade to level four would result in forced evacuations across a larger impact area.

In an attempt to keep local villagers from returning to their homes to check on farm animals, officials have planned to set up evacuation areas for animals, including water buffaloes, cows, pigs and poultry, according to Office of Civil Defense regional director Claudio Yucot.

Despite being a popular tourist attraction, Mount Mayon has erupted around 50 times in the past 500 years.

The 2,460-metre (8,070-foot) Mayon, has a long history of deadly eruptions.

An eruption in 1814 killed 1,200 people and buried an entire town in a volcanic mudflow.

A larger scale eruption could result in more widespread evacuations and travel disruption as the volcano sits less than 16 km (10 miles) from Legazpi City, the capital of Albay province.

To exaggerate the problem continuous heavy rains recently could lead to volcanic mudflows (lahar flows).

Daily showers and localized downpours are expected across the area through at least Thursday.

Any downpours will heighten the risk of flooding and mudflows around the volcano.

Tsunami warning issued for eruption of volcano on Kadovar Island Papua New Guinea as explosion will trigger landslides into the sea

Earthwindmap showing Sulfur Dioxide surface mass

the Big Wobble,

16 January, 2018

People in Papua New Guinea are being warned that an eruption of a volcano in the South Pacific nation could also cause a local tsunami.

The volcano on Kadovar Island has been erupting for more than a week, forcing 700 people to leave that island and 3,000 to be evacuated from nearby Biem Island.

Photo therussophile.org

Flights in the area have been cancelled due to the risk posed by ash plumes and ships were warned to stay away from the island. 

Prime Minister Peter O'Neill warned northern coastal communities to be alert for possible tsunamis. Kadovar is offshore to the north of New Guinea, the larger island that includes Papua New Guinea's capital, Port Moresby.

Chris Firth, a volcano expert from the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at Australia's Macquarie University, said the steepness of the volcano meant an eruption may trigger landslides into the sea, which could create a tsunami.

"Given the volcano's remoteness and dormancy, it has not been well studied in the past and does not have the monitoring infrastructure that is in place on other, more regularly active volcanoes,'' Firth said in a statement.

"This makes it very hard to predict what will happen during the course of the current eruption.

'' Papua New Guinea sits on the "Ring of Fire,'' a line of seismic faults encircling the Pacific that has frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

Drought in New Guinea

Papua New Guinea villagers eat clay and toxic mushrooms as severe drought hits

Experts warn of crisis in the making in some provinces where extreme El Niño climate conditions have devastated crops

the Guardian,

1 December, 2015

People in drought-ravaged villages in Papua New Guinea are eating toxic mushrooms and clay to stave off hunger pangs as crops fail, vanishing water sources become contaminated and food, medical and fuel supplies are exhausted.

Leprosy and severe, potentially fatal, gastrointestinal cases have spiked in some villages in one province, including suspected cholera or typhoid, international experts working in the area reported.

They said populations in isolated communities across the rugged north and west of the country were enduring some of the worst of the fallout from this year’s extreme El Niño. Their villages are many days’ jungle walk to the nearest town, and accessible only by riverboat or charter flights.

Crops have been wiped out, rivers have dried up and schools and medical clinics have been forced to shut.

There are fears that this year’s emergency may equal or surpass the devastation of the 1997-98 El Niño when hundreds died in PNG, the toll claiming up to 7% of populations in some rural pockets.

“Throughout September I was seeing people, mostly children, everyday with diarrhoea,” said Dr Penny Johnson, an Australian National University medical anthropologist who works regularly in the lower Fly river region in Western Province, home to an estimated 140,000 people.

“I was also seeing a lot of leprosy” – at least 16 cases in one community. “Open weeping ulcers seemed to be spreading from stagnant muddy bathing holes, as well as person to person.”

Johnson’s local colleague Jimmy Nebni advised her last week that people were now camping in the bush to escape the sun, that garden crops had rotted, and yam suckers for the next season’s crop were not sprouting.

“Animals are beginning to die and when we take some meat our bodies feel stomach pains, feel diarrhoea and weak bodies. We are praying to God for help in this situation.”

A Uniting Church-funded investigation into the effects of the drought, drawing on visits to 30 villages scattered through the highlands, found that staple sweet potato crops had been decimated due to the combined effects of drought and frost since the El Niño began in April.

“With most creeks drying up, everyone is now walking long distances to fetch drinking water from rivers. Drinking water is a universal concern but manageable,” reported drought assessor Matthew Kanua. “Water-borne diseases can pose serious risk as most people are drinking, bathing and doing their laundries in the rivers.”

Canadian anthropologist Professor Dan Jorgensen, who has been conducting field work in PNG’s far west Telefomin and North Fly districts for many years, has also documented cascading effects as drought chokes vital riverboat supply lines. Schools and medical clinics are operating on reduced hours or not at all.

Australian Sally Lloyd, who grew up in a village on the Middle Fly where her parents were missionaries, is part of a network of church, academic and community leaders lobbying the PNG and Australian governments and the World Food Programme for a heightened emergency response to the crisis.

She observed people eating clay during her most recent visit, in October. “It’s a special type of clay. Birds and other animals eat it when there is no food. People break it and chew it, it helps with the hunger, and helps if they are feeling sick.”

She remains in daily contact with people around Mougulu, and said conditions had deteriorated.

With garden supplies and store-bought foods now extremely scarce, staff at the medical centre reported locals foraging for wild mushrooms. Several have become comatose and many patients are being treated for diarrhoea and vomiting.

Drought assessor Kanua said he was concerned by the long-term impacts, even when conditions ease. Many families have culled their pigs, goats and sheep because there is nothing for them to graze on. Fish stocks have gone as ponds have dried up.

His assessment included accounts of widespread migration as desperate families abandon their homes and food gardens, travelling long distances to stay with extended family.

Paul Barker, the head of the PNG Institute of National Affairs independent think tank, said drought and frosts had affected crops throughout the country, with varying impacts.

“Across much of the country, from the highlands to remote islands … staple crops became largely unavailable, starting with taro, then sweet potato, and with even resilient cassava suffering, largely from borer infestations”.

Although recent rains have brought relief in some areas, “recovery is mixed … and if forecasters are right, may be in diminished quantities over the next six months. Also the loss of planting will invariably impose testing times into the new years, which is traditionally the ‘taim hangri’ in many parts of the country.”

The PNG government has pledged emergency aid but the reports indicate that, despite early warnings, in many of the surveyed communities the response has so far been slow, insufficient, or non-existent.

The el-Nino in the Pacific

El Niño could leave 4 million people in Pacific without food or drinking water

Papua New Guinea drought has already claimed two dozen lives and looming El Niño weather pattern could be as severe as in 1997-98, when 23,000 people died

the Guardian,

12 October, 2015

Two dozen people have already died from hunger and drinking contaminated water in drought-stricken Papua New Guinea, but the looming El Niño crisis could leave more than four million people across the Pacific without enough food or clean water.

The El Niño weather pattern – when waters in the eastern tropical Pacific ocean become warmer, driving extreme weather conditions – may be as severe as in 1997-98, when an estimated 23,000 people died, forecasters believe.

In Papua New Guinea’s Chimbu province in the highlands region, a prolonged drought has been exacerbated by sudden and severe frosts which have killed off almost all crops. The provincial disaster centre has confirmed 24 people have died from starvation and drinking contaminated water.

Provincial disaster co-ordinator Michael Ire Appa told Radio NZ he feared the death toll could even be higher.

“The drought has been here for almost three months now and in areas that were affected by the drought there’s a serious food shortage, including water, and some of the districts have not reported, so there may be more [deaths] than that,” he said.

Two highlands provinces have already declared a state of emergency.

Oxfam Australia’s climate change policy advisor Dr Simon Bradshaw said many parts of PNG would run out of food in two or three months, but in some areas there was as little as a month’s food left, and few ways to get more in.

“In the highland areas people are almost exclusively reliant on subsistence farming, farming of sweet potatoes. We do know that water is becoming very scarce, that’s of course impacting food production, and PNG is almost entirely dependent on its own food – I think 83% of its food is produced in-country – so any hit on food production poses immediate challenges in terms of food security.”

Over the coming months, the El Niño pattern will bring more rain, flooding and higher sea levels to countries near the equator, raising the risk of inundation for low-lying atolls already feeling the impacts of climate change.

At the same time, the countries of the Pacific south-west – which have larger populations – will be significantly drier and hotter.

El Niño years typically have a longer, more destructive cyclone season.

“El Niño has the potential to trigger a regional humanitarian emergency and we estimate as many as 4.1 million people are at risk from water shortages, food insecurity and disease across the Pacific,” Sune Gudnitz, head of the Pacific region office of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said.

“Countries including Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Tonga and the Solomon Islands are already feeling El Niño’s impact with reduced rainfall affecting crops and drinking-water supplies. Drought conditions would further complicate the humanitarian situation in countries that are just emerging from the devastation caused by tropical cyclones Pam, Maysak and Raquel.”

Many countries across the region are entering the El Niño period in a vulnerable state. Drought has been officially declared in 34 provinces in Indonesia, while in Vanuatu – still recovering from the devastation of cyclone Pam, which struck in March – authorities are warning reduced rainfall will damage food security, health and livelihoods.

In some parts of Fiji, water is already being trucked into villages that have run out. And Tonga, which has suffered a drought for nearly a year, has been forced to ship water supplies to the country’s outer islands.

Countries where food insecurity affects large proportions of the population were of special concern, Bradshaw said. 

“With an El Niño event, you usually get about one-fifth less rainfall across the country as well as significant changes to the timing of the rainy season, a lot more rain concentrated in January, and that, combined with deforestation, increases the risk of landslides, flash floods, damage to infrastructure and destruction of crops. 

Timor Leste is somewhere we’re watching particularly closely because of the existing challenges, and the effect the El Niño will have on top of that.”

Bradshaw said the impact of the El Niño would compound the difficulties faced by Pacific countries struggling to cope with the effects of climate change.

He said recent research suggested El Niño patterns – usually seen every three to seven years – could now occur twice as frequently, and that “normal” conditions might become more similar to those of El Niño.

“We’ve had two unusually hot years, and now we’ve got a very strong El Niño event, so I think it would be fair to say, unfortunately, that we’re in uncharted waters. What we’ve seen is somewhat unprecedented and climate change is increasingly going to put us in that position.” 

The countries most affected by the combined effects of climate change and El Nino are – for reasons of geography, economy, governance and remoteness – often the least equipped to deal with their impacts.

“We’ve seen an unprecedented run of extreme and erratic weather, which has had very real impacts,” Bradshaw said. “Of course, those impacts are felt first and hardest by the world’s poorest communities, but these countries are also the least responsible for climate change. They’ve contributed negligibly to global greenhouse emissions.

“I think it drives home the fact that climate change affects us all; it affects poorer countries first and hardest, but we have a responsibility as a wealthy, developed nation to be both doing far more to reduce our own emissions, but also to be providing greater support with adaptation and resilience-building to poorer countries.”

Bradshaw said the effects of the El Niño, combined with climate change, should drive all countries towards a strong agreement at climate change talks in Paris in December

As El Niño gets stronger Australia gets hotter, drier and more ready to burn

Bureau of Meteorology says prospect of drier-than-normal October is about 70% in southern Australia which comes after third-driest September on record

the Guardian,

8 October, 2015

El Niño conditions are set to intensify across much of Australia, with extremely dry conditions expected to heighten the risk of drought and bushfires, the Bureau of Meteorology has said.

The bureau has updated its outlook for the rest of the year after Australia experienced its third driest September on record, with large parts of Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania getting very little rain.

The chance of a drier than normal October for southern Australia is about 70%, with the probability rising to 80% in Victoria where the state government is attempting to find ways to get water to parched areas in the west of the state.

El Niño is a periodic climatic event in which waters of the eastern Pacific warm, triggering a slew of weather changes around the world. In Australia it is associated with reduced rainfall and warmer temperatures.

The current El Niño, which will last throughout the summer, is considered one of the top four on record in terms of strength. It has been balanced by another trend, the Indian Ocean dipole, in which warmer waters off Indonesia help bring moisture, and therefore rain, to Australia.

But the bureau said this had changed in the past eight weeks, with waters in the eastern Indian Ocean now 1C cooler than normal. The warmer waters are now found off Africa, bringing rain to countries such as Somalia.

“We’ve had these two systems competing against each other, but now the El Niño is being reinforced – the wetter influence is being overrun by the drying influence of El Niño,” said Andrew Watkins, climate predictions manager at the bureau.

“This means that the odds of a dry October are very strong, at a time that is very important for agriculture and also bushfires. We have already seen fires inVictoria, which don’t normally happen until summer, so that’s not a good sign.”

Hundreds of bushfires have broken out in Victoria over the past week. Two homes, two sheds and two vehicles were confirmed destroyed on Wednesday from a 4,000-hectare blaze near the town of Lancefield. The fire started from a planned burn-off, prompting an independent inquiry.

Melbourne had its warmest early October day on Tuesday, with temperatures reaching 35C. Sydney and Adelaide have also experienced a string of days over 30C before cooler conditions moved in.

The bushfire and natural hazards cooperative research centre has forecast a greater than normal risk of bushfires across much of south-east Australia this year, with climate change making fire seasons longer.

“While summer is usually the time associated with the highest bushfire risk in the southern states across Australia, bushfire seasons are starting earlier and lasting longer,” said Richard Thornton, the centre’s chief executive.

“We know from research on recent large fires that many people living in high-risk bushfire areas are still under-prepared and ill-informed on the dangers and the preparations needed.”

The bureau said waters in the eastern Indian Ocean should start to warm again in November, bringing a slightly better chance of rain in Australia in November and December.

“Our model suggests there will be more even odds in terms of dry conditions in November,” said Watkins. “But given the strength of El Niño, it would be difficult to bet on a wet end to the year. There will be average rainfall at best.”